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Whispering_Jack

2019 AFL National Draft prospects: The next batch

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9 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

2019 picks 1-25 please.

🐓🐓🐓

Pay me $250k/year and I’ll go you one better. I’ll ditch my current goings on, hit the road with the recruiters and have a stab at the 2020, 2021 and 2022 crops. 

👉 💰💰💰 

 

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Would be stoked if we land Anderson. Kid looks like such a damaging prospect. Could be a gun forward, mid or half back IMO. I want him as a damaging goal kicking mid. Pick 2 yes please!

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The “downside” of our return to winning form is that some of these top shelf draft picks will start slipping from our grasp. Good news for Adelaide which looks to have secured #1 or 2 and the locals have some good prospects -

Defending U18 champions open account in thriller over WA

And those juicy prospects in the Vic Metro team continue to stand out.

U18: Potential No.1 pick stars as Metro post first win

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There is a very good top 20 this year and then the talent pool spreads out. 2nd round picks will probably be selected on a needs basis.  

Mitch Martin is one player who the Dees should be watching out for in the pick 22-28 range. 

Hopefully no more priority picks given out by the AFL.  Giants will again get a steal in Thomas Green. 

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On 6/21/2019 at 11:44 PM, Moonshadow said:

Would like to see the 'sack Taylor' posters put predictions up here for us to judge in hindsight next year...

The issue is not with the individual players he is selecting, it is the type of players he is selecting. 

You don't win premierships with 173cm slow forwards with no tricks, and certainly not by selecting them in the second round.

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The fourth round of the Australian Championships was played yesterday. Some key articles ~

Under 18 Champs Preview - Round 4

U18 champs: Vic Country downs reigning champs to stay unbeaten

VIC COUNTRY 2.2 5.3 6.6 9.9 (63)

SOUTH AUSTRALIA  1.3  3.6 6.7 9.8 (62) 

GOALS

Vic Country: Weightman 4, Cahill, Flanders, Hollands, Kemp, J. Smith

South Australia: Durdin 2, Mead 2, Gould, Morris, O’Brien, Sladojevic, Stephens 

BEST

Vic Country: Flanders, Serong, DeKoning, Weightman, Ash, Kemp

South Australia: Gould, Day, Hilder , Mead, Finlay, McEntee

U18 champs: Allies edge Vic Metro as Green puts on 'Cripps-like' show

VIC METRO 2.0 5.1 6.4 10.8 (68)

ALLIES 4.0 5.2 10.3 11.4 (70) 

GOALS

Vic Metro: Mahony 3, Bergman, Jeka, Jones, Rossiter, Rowell, Sturgess, Williams

Allies: Gore 3, Ellem 2, Gulden 2, Rosas 2, Green, Oea

BEST

Vic Metro: McGuinness, Rowell, Mahony, McAsey, Anderson, Bergman

Allies: Green, Gulden, Gore, Parks, Cumberland, Peatling

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We’d have been better off just using Knightmare’s Phantom Draft than the spud’s we’ve been paying for.  

Similar to the share market where so many of the highly paid Fund Managers can’t even beat the Index or an ETF. 

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1 hour ago, goodwindees said:

We’d have been better off just using Knightmare’s Phantom Draft than the spud’s we’ve been paying for.  

Similar to the share market where so many of the highly paid Fund Managers can’t even beat the Index or an ETF. 

100% correct. We don’t know the ins and outside of meetings and testing etc, but there have been clearly drafting errors in the past where an obvious talent is overlooked and then blossomed. 

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49 minutes ago, Lord Travis said:

100% correct. We don’t know the ins and outside of meetings and testing etc, but there have been clearly drafting errors in the past where an obvious talent is overlooked and then blossomed. 

They are all talented. And we are all anonymous hindsight kings on here where the stakes are low.

Would you care to put forward your 1-25 for this year's crop?

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2 hours ago, goodwindees said:

We’d have been better off just using Knightmare’s Phantom Draft than the spud’s we’ve been paying for.  

Similar to the share market where so many of the highly paid Fund Managers can’t even beat the Index or an ETF. 

Great call. 

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2 hours ago, goodwindees said:

We’d have been better off just using Knightmare’s Phantom Draft than the spud’s we’ve been paying for.  

Similar to the share market where so many of the highly paid Fund Managers can’t even beat the Index or an ETF. 

 

1 hour ago, Lord Travis said:

100% correct. We don’t know the ins and outside of meetings and testing etc, but there have been clearly drafting errors in the past where an obvious talent is overlooked and then blossomed. 

Absolute load of bollocks

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Lord Travis said:

100% correct. We don’t know the ins and outside of meetings and testing etc, but there have been clearly drafting errors in the past where an obvious talent is overlooked and then blossomed. 

The same could be argued for any other club, looking at any other team including Melbourne... it's a redundant argument...

For mine - these are players that are currently listed (and not) that we have nurtured and are/could be on the list (not necessarily the best 22) that Melbourne have developed....

OMAC 

TMAC 

GAWN

HOWE 

KENT

HARMES

HUNT

JETTA

ANB

J SMITH

HANANN

Edited by Engorged Onion

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12 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

The same could be argued for any other club, looking at any other team including Melbourne... it's a redundant argument...

For mine - these are players that are currently listed (and not) that we have nurtured and are/could be on the list (not necessarily the best 22) that Melbourne have developed....

OMAC 

TMAC 

GAWN

HOWE 

KENT

HARMES

HUNT

JETTA

ANB

J SMITH

HANANN

Gawn, Howe, Jetta, TMac pre Jason Taylor.

Take them out then tell me that’s a quality list.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Matsuo Basho said:

Gawn, Howe, Jetta, TMac pre Jason Taylor.

Take them out then tell me that’s a quality list.

Ahhh, hey Matty,  I thought you'd pop up and move the goal post. 

That wasn't the initial argument. 

Anyhoo - It's around 1 a year for the last decade (non top 10 draft picks)...is that enough...mmm I'm not sure - however I am also not sure of the average across all clubs, to see what an industry standard is.

Edit:  (thanks for the kick up the ar$e @drysdale demon to do a little research) 

We're at 1.1 per year

Randomly, ill pick  Richmond and WCE, BRIS and HAWTHORN over the last decade and their drafting and who would still be on a list within the AFL system.

RICH

Grimes, Ellis, McIntosh, Castagna, Rioli, Broad, Bolton Graham, Higgins (9)/10years= .9

WCE

Darling, Lycett, McGovern, Hutchings, Sinclair, Sheed, Barass, McGovern, Cole, Veneable, Rioli, Waterman, Ryan Petruccelle, Allen (15)= 1.5

BRis

Harwood, Hanley, Lester, Yeo, Golby, Aish, McStay, Cutler, Andrews, Mathieson, Hipwood, Witherdan, McInerny, Bailey, (14) =1.4

HAW

Duryea, Suckling, Smith Puopolo, Hill, Breust, Sicily, Howe, Burton, Glass, Morrisson, (11) =1.1

 

So the average from these 4 clubs is 1.2 = Melb's is at 1.1

*happy to argue a handfull of players in or out of for any club...

So what do I take out of this, well, Melbourne as a club aren't far off premiership winner, contenders and wooden spooners in their capacity to develop players.

I think it still reinforces my argument that all clubs lament choices made, or players looked over, none more or less than any other.

Edited by Engorged Onion

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21 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

Ahhh, hey Matty,  I thought you'd pop up and move the goal post. 

That wasn't the initial argument. 

Anyhoo - It's around 1 a year for the last decade...is that enough...mmm I'm not sure - however I am also not sure of the average across all clubs, to see what an industry standard is.

You are going to be in for a lesson on the draft by all clubs for that period, brace yourself

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5 hours ago, goodwindees said:

We’d have been better off just using Knightmare’s Phantom Draft than the spud’s we’ve been paying for.  

Similar to the share market where so many of the highly paid Fund Managers can’t even beat the Index or an ETF.

 

Great analogy.

Just like the share market, the draft is a lottery and anyone that pretends to know conclusively is full of carp.

Shame there’s no ETFs in AFL.

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11 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

 

Great analogy.

Just like the share market, the draft is a lottery and anyone that pretends to know conclusively is full of carp.

Shame there’s no ETFs in AFL.

If that’s true why have paid scouts and recruiters at all?

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A question for those that actually watch U18 footy (not just regurgitate what they read on other sites) - Is Cooper Stephens a reasonable option for our first pick?  

I know he has slipped a little in thinking because he's out injured ATM, but it seems he has the attributes to still be a potential top 10 draftee.

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Matsuo Basho said:

If that’s true why have paid scouts and recruiters at all?

 

Because no one knows conclusively, but you’re aiming to select players who have a higher probability of making it.

Saying that one player has slightly outperformed another is disingenuous and misses the point. If Curnow & Weideman both develop into quality tall forwards but Curnow is marginally better, it doesn’t make an earlier selection of Weideman to be the wrong decision, because he probably had less chance than Curnow of turning out to be a Mitch Thorp.

I might be wrong, but I think the correct way to judge a recruitment or list management team is to gauge how many hits they had versus misses, not comparing them to others who have performed better but taken later, if they’ve still developed into a competent AFL player for at least a period, and also referencing that against other players left at that pick who actually did make it.

And even then, not “making it” can be a fallacy. For instance, Lincoln McCarthy may have been judged a miss at Geelong for Wells, but he was held back by injuries and the performance of others he was competing with for a spot in the 22. His performance at Brisbane has shown that he was worth the selection. Likewise a player like Menegola at the cats would get a tick from Geelong (although not getting a game as much this season for similar reasons), however the original team that drafted him (Hawthorn? Fremantle?) wouldn’t get the same tick, but do they maybe deserve it?

Edited by Mach5
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6 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

Because no one knows conclusively, but you’re aiming to select players who have a higher probability of making it.

Ahh. I thought there might be a ‘but’. 

Then we’re agreed it’s not a lottery. And just like the stock market trading, some people are simply better at it than others. 

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53 minutes ago, Matsuo Basho said:

Ahh. I thought there might be a ‘but’. 

Then we’re agreed it’s not a lottery. And just like the stock market trading, some people are simply better at it than others. 

 

I’m not trying to misrepresent your point, don’t try to misrepresent mine.

You’re not half as smart as you think you are.

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46 minutes ago, Mach5 said:

 

I’m not trying to misrepresent your point, don’t try to misrepresent mine.

You’re not half as smart as you think you are.

No misrepresentation of your point at all. Just cutting through the fluff of what you wrote to get at the marrow of it. 

You back-pedalled, not me.

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