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AFL Ladder predictor


Billy
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On the AFL website

Ok I’m bored

A week off work crook & I’m going stir crazy, this is what l came up with.

Would be pretty happy with this result, but there’s 3 or 4 50/50 games that l picked the Dees in

C31500B5-AE77-4DFD-B877-49F754DCFC22.png

DD4EDB46-DB25-461D-8688-A660CE308325.png

Edited by Billy
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Looking through our fixture yesterday, I had us down for 16 wins. That's mostly beating the teams we should beat and winning a game against Collingwood, West Coast or Richmond.

* I can't see Geelong making the 8 next year.

* I think Hawthorn over-achieved this year and are starting to remind me of Geelong in that they're desperately topping up in the hope they've got enough talent to pinch one. Even with Clarkson, I don't see it.

* Port are massive under achievers, but they could just as easily miss out on the 8 again. I expect them to scrape in next year though, otherwise a change of coach is coming.

* The Dogs could turn it around, but they lack the midfield depth required and barring a miracle they won't make the 8 either.

* Gold Coast, Fremantle and Carlton will be similarly placed come the end of the year. I really can't see them getting out of the bottom 4.

* Unless Horse changes tact, I see Sydney missing the 8 next year. 

* GWS will probably finish just inside the 8, but could easily miss.

* North will be on the fringe again. I could see them sneaking into the 8.

* St Kilda are ordinary, but if they can bring the pressure game they brought under Richardson 2-3 years ago, they could finish on the fringe, but I can't see them making the 8.

* I think we'll see Brisbane rise and finish anywhere between 13th-10th. A year too early for them to make finals IMO.

That leaves the following teams to thrash it out for the top 4: West Coast, Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne, Essendon and Adelaide.

The rest of the top 8 will be made up of two of GWS, Hawthorn, Port and North.

OF THE TOP 4

With injuries, Richmond could miss out on the top 4 altogether. They've had an incredible run with injuries and if Rance goes down, that's 3-4 goals a game they'll be worse off. I think Riewoldt and Lynch will change the dynamics of their forwardline and transform them into a higher scoring team, but a more predictable unit, which will see them lose more often.

Collingwood had a very, very easy draw this year. 2019 will test them, but through their easy draw this year, they built some confidence in their system and they still have 2 older champions in the midfield and emerging half backs and mids. I could just as easily see Collingwood tipping out of the top 4 too. 

West Coast have been thereabouts for the last few seasons and their defensive system and power forwards will make them difficult to beat. Particularly, now that these guys have a flag under their belts. They're beatable, but I think top 4 certainly beckons for them in 2019.

Adelaide still have a good list, but injuries proved this year that they're not as powerful as it may have seemed leading into 2018. When we had crucial injuries in 2017, Goodwin pulled the right reigns and devised a system that enabled us to finish 9th and missing by percentage. In all honesty, even though they finished a single win outside of the 8 in 2018, Adelaide were a long way off being the standard of a top 8 team (bar maybe their Richmond game). They're the wild card entry for top 4 in 2019.

The hype around Essendon is actually justified IMO. Their midfield is shaping up nicely. Their problem is little margin for error, both in injury (if Daniher goes down again and Fantasia misses, they'll struggle to make the 8 ) and in work rate+system. Their lack of a decent second KPF and a good ruckman will probably see them just miss the top 4, but who knows?

This leaves us. If we can stay healthy and fit, our list is well balanced, although still slow on the outside. If Gawn, Oliver and Brayshaw stay fit we'll push for top 4. If they all play and are accompanied by Viney (IMO almost our most important player), we'll make the top 4. I hope Lever, May and one of McDonald/Frost get some serious continuity together next season. If they do, we'll be hard to beat.

Edited by A F
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1 hour ago, Demonland said:

I don't care about the non-Melbourne games so I came up with this ladder.

Screenshot_2018-11-02 Ladder Predictor - AFL com au.png

LOOK AT OUR PATHETIC PERCENTAGE ????

Anyone who says we dont miss Jesse is an idiot..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:P

 

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I really think Jesse will add a minimum of 4 wins for Freo who will be 10th. I had us 17/5 for year and minor premiers. I also think port has to come good. 

Syd and Ade miss and StK and Bri both improve.

Hawks and Geelong have a soft draw just scraping into 8-9

WCE Ric Col all in top 4-6

Ess could sneak in damn it i had to deliberately pick against them.

Dogs don't have enough cattle.

North irrelevant

I like our tough draw, injuries are a caveat on all predictions.

Also i think the 18th team should have at least 6 wins. Carlton fwiw

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13 hours ago, DaisyDeeciple said:

I really think Jesse will add a minimum of 4 wins for Freo who will be 10th. I had us 17/5 for year and minor premiers. I also think port has to come good. 

Syd and Ade miss and StK and Bri both improve.

Hawks and Geelong have a soft draw just scraping into 8-9

WCE Ric Col all in top 4-6

Ess could sneak in damn it i had to deliberately pick against them.

Dogs don't have enough cattle.

North irrelevant

I like our tough draw, injuries are a caveat on all predictions.

Also i think the 18th team should have at least 6 wins. Carlton fwiw

Collingwood is a bit of an unknown in my opinion. They could easily do an Essendon and finish around 10th.

Sidebottom and Pendlebury had great seasons. Can they do it yet again. Forward structure is not quite there and of course Cox could be a star or a bust. In 2018 they were the quiet achievers who had a good September... sound familiar.

If your prediction of 6 wins for the bottom team is right the top ten or so will be incredibly tight.

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On 11/3/2018 at 12:47 AM, Diamond_Jim said:

If your prediction of 6 wins for the bottom team is right the top ten or so will be incredibly tight.

i cant see much difference between 6th and 14rh, little factors to have a big impact. 

Re GCS, easy to think they will be totally awful but they will get better.

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1 hour ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Gold Coast will get worse before they get better. 

I know I have paid out on Dew but he did have Roos's endorsement, has to be worth something. But you are probably right.

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When you look at the team's with the toughest draws - melbourne collingwood west cost essendon hawthorn and richmond - they all play each other twice. That's 6 of last year's finalists that you'd think one might actually drop out of the top 8. There are smokies with the likes of Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong, Port, GWS and the Bulldogs, all of whom you would think have grand finals ambitions. 

I think we may well see a North or Brisbane sneak in this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if one of Melbourne Hawthorn or Collingwood drop out. Essendon is all the talk atm but could finish anywhere from 1st to 12th. 

Ultimately I think top 4 will be made up of the best defenses, we are stacked in that regard but the question is if our forward line can be as potent.

I'm in two minds about 2019 just as I was last year about 2018. Finals would be ideal but this might be the toughest draw we've had in my time supporting the club (29 years).

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I did a run through and here's how it turned out.

1. Richmond
2. Melbourne
3. Eagles
4. Adelaide
5. Bombers
6. Pies
7. Swans
8. Cats
9. Hawks
10. North
11. Brisbane
12. GWS
13. Port
14. Bulldogs
15. Freo
16. Saints
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast

Despite a hard draw we finish second. I gave us one win one loss against the other top 4 teams. If we are consistent, we will make top 4. 

Hawks and Giants to drop out of the 8. Adelaide and Essendon to rise into the 8. 

Gold Coast clear last. They play Carlton at home in the early rounds, and if they don't win that I struggle to see what match they will actually win. Probability says they'll win at least a game or two, but it's really hard to see where. Their current list is the worst of any club in my lifetime. Comfortably worse than all of Fitzroy, us and Blues at their lowest.

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