Jump to content

Sign in to follow this  
Billy

AFL Ladder predictor

Recommended Posts

On the AFL website

Ok I’m bored

A week off work crook & I’m going stir crazy, this is what l came up with.

Would be pretty happy with this result, but there’s 3 or 4 50/50 games that l picked the Dees in

C31500B5-AE77-4DFD-B877-49F754DCFC22.png

DD4EDB46-DB25-461D-8688-A660CE308325.png

Edited by Billy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty good given you have us playing only 21 games while the other teams in the 8 have played 22.

Great effort and keep them coming. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Diamond_Jim said:

Pretty good given you have us playing only 21 games while the other teams in the 8 have played 22.

Great effort and keep them coming. ;)

I’m not very good at this haha

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking through our fixture yesterday, I had us down for 16 wins. That's mostly beating the teams we should beat and winning a game against Collingwood, West Coast or Richmond.

* I can't see Geelong making the 8 next year.

* I think Hawthorn over-achieved this year and are starting to remind me of Geelong in that they're desperately topping up in the hope they've got enough talent to pinch one. Even with Clarkson, I don't see it.

* Port are massive under achievers, but they could just as easily miss out on the 8 again. I expect them to scrape in next year though, otherwise a change of coach is coming.

* The Dogs could turn it around, but they lack the midfield depth required and barring a miracle they won't make the 8 either.

* Gold Coast, Fremantle and Carlton will be similarly placed come the end of the year. I really can't see them getting out of the bottom 4.

* Unless Horse changes tact, I see Sydney missing the 8 next year. 

* GWS will probably finish just inside the 8, but could easily miss.

* North will be on the fringe again. I could see them sneaking into the 8.

* St Kilda are ordinary, but if they can bring the pressure game they brought under Richardson 2-3 years ago, they could finish on the fringe, but I can't see them making the 8.

* I think we'll see Brisbane rise and finish anywhere between 13th-10th. A year too early for them to make finals IMO.

That leaves the following teams to thrash it out for the top 4: West Coast, Collingwood, Richmond, Melbourne, Essendon and Adelaide.

The rest of the top 8 will be made up of two of GWS, Hawthorn, Port and North.

OF THE TOP 4

With injuries, Richmond could miss out on the top 4 altogether. They've had an incredible run with injuries and if Rance goes down, that's 3-4 goals a game they'll be worse off. I think Riewoldt and Lynch will change the dynamics of their forwardline and transform them into a higher scoring team, but a more predictable unit, which will see them lose more often.

Collingwood had a very, very easy draw this year. 2019 will test them, but through their easy draw this year, they built some confidence in their system and they still have 2 older champions in the midfield and emerging half backs and mids. I could just as easily see Collingwood tipping out of the top 4 too. 

West Coast have been thereabouts for the last few seasons and their defensive system and power forwards will make them difficult to beat. Particularly, now that these guys have a flag under their belts. They're beatable, but I think top 4 certainly beckons for them in 2019.

Adelaide still have a good list, but injuries proved this year that they're not as powerful as it may have seemed leading into 2018. When we had crucial injuries in 2017, Goodwin pulled the right reigns and devised a system that enabled us to finish 9th and missing by percentage. In all honesty, even though they finished a single win outside of the 8 in 2018, Adelaide were a long way off being the standard of a top 8 team (bar maybe their Richmond game). They're the wild card entry for top 4 in 2019.

The hype around Essendon is actually justified IMO. Their midfield is shaping up nicely. Their problem is little margin for error, both in injury (if Daniher goes down again and Fantasia misses, they'll struggle to make the 8 ) and in work rate+system. Their lack of a decent second KPF and a good ruckman will probably see them just miss the top 4, but who knows?

This leaves us. If we can stay healthy and fit, our list is well balanced, although still slow on the outside. If Gawn, Oliver and Brayshaw stay fit we'll push for top 4. If they all play and are accompanied by Viney (IMO almost our most important player), we'll make the top 4. I hope Lever, May and one of McDonald/Frost get some serious continuity together next season. If they do, we'll be hard to beat.

Edited by A F
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Demonland said:

I don't care about the non-Melbourne games so I came up with this ladder.

Screenshot_2018-11-02 Ladder Predictor - AFL com au.png

LOOK AT OUR PATHETIC PERCENTAGE ????

Anyone who says we dont miss Jesse is an idiot..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:P

 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, ding said:

LOOK AT OUR PATHETIC PERCENTAGE ????

Anyone who says we dont miss Jesse is an idiot..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:P

 

Still 45% better than the next team. In my scenario we really took the pedal off in the second half.

  • Like 1
  • Shocked 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really think Jesse will add a minimum of 4 wins for Freo who will be 10th. I had us 17/5 for year and minor premiers. I also think port has to come good. 

Syd and Ade miss and StK and Bri both improve.

Hawks and Geelong have a soft draw just scraping into 8-9

WCE Ric Col all in top 4-6

Ess could sneak in damn it i had to deliberately pick against them.

Dogs don't have enough cattle.

North irrelevant

I like our tough draw, injuries are a caveat on all predictions.

Also i think the 18th team should have at least 6 wins. Carlton fwiw

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, DaisyDeeciple said:

I really think Jesse will add a minimum of 4 wins for Freo who will be 10th. I had us 17/5 for year and minor premiers. I also think port has to come good. 

Syd and Ade miss and StK and Bri both improve.

Hawks and Geelong have a soft draw just scraping into 8-9

WCE Ric Col all in top 4-6

Ess could sneak in damn it i had to deliberately pick against them.

Dogs don't have enough cattle.

North irrelevant

I like our tough draw, injuries are a caveat on all predictions.

Also i think the 18th team should have at least 6 wins. Carlton fwiw

Collingwood is a bit of an unknown in my opinion. They could easily do an Essendon and finish around 10th.

Sidebottom and Pendlebury had great seasons. Can they do it yet again. Forward structure is not quite there and of course Cox could be a star or a bust. In 2018 they were the quiet achievers who had a good September... sound familiar.

If your prediction of 6 wins for the bottom team is right the top ten or so will be incredibly tight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, DaisyDeeciple said:

 

Also i think the 18th team should have at least 6 wins. Carlton fwiw

GC win more than 6?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Aus in Engerland said:

Where on earth did you find 4 wins for GCS?

Cant remember,  but it hard to see AFL House letting them go winless.  That would be an unmitigated disaster.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/3/2018 at 12:47 AM, Diamond_Jim said:

If your prediction of 6 wins for the bottom team is right the top ten or so will be incredibly tight.

i cant see much difference between 6th and 14rh, little factors to have a big impact. 

Re GCS, easy to think they will be totally awful but they will get better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Gold Coast will get worse before they get better. 

I know I have paid out on Dew but he did have Roos's endorsement, has to be worth something. But you are probably right.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When you look at the team's with the toughest draws - melbourne collingwood west cost essendon hawthorn and richmond - they all play each other twice. That's 6 of last year's finalists that you'd think one might actually drop out of the top 8. There are smokies with the likes of Adelaide, Sydney, Geelong, Port, GWS and the Bulldogs, all of whom you would think have grand finals ambitions. 

I think we may well see a North or Brisbane sneak in this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if one of Melbourne Hawthorn or Collingwood drop out. Essendon is all the talk atm but could finish anywhere from 1st to 12th. 

Ultimately I think top 4 will be made up of the best defenses, we are stacked in that regard but the question is if our forward line can be as potent.

I'm in two minds about 2019 just as I was last year about 2018. Finals would be ideal but this might be the toughest draw we've had in my time supporting the club (29 years).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I did a run through and here's how it turned out.

1. Richmond
2. Melbourne
3. Eagles
4. Adelaide
5. Bombers
6. Pies
7. Swans
8. Cats
9. Hawks
10. North
11. Brisbane
12. GWS
13. Port
14. Bulldogs
15. Freo
16. Saints
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast

Despite a hard draw we finish second. I gave us one win one loss against the other top 4 teams. If we are consistent, we will make top 4. 

Hawks and Giants to drop out of the 8. Adelaide and Essendon to rise into the 8. 

Gold Coast clear last. They play Carlton at home in the early rounds, and if they don't win that I struggle to see what match they will actually win. Probability says they'll win at least a game or two, but it's really hard to see where. Their current list is the worst of any club in my lifetime. Comfortably worse than all of Fitzroy, us and Blues at their lowest.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Social Media

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles

    HOW FAR SOUTH? by George on the Outer

    It was appropriate that Melbourne was playing its last game of season 2019 in Hobart.  After all, how much further south could the team go? And much as it has done in many of the previous 22 games, the side managed to extract a loss from a winning position by simply giving the ball back to the opposition time and time again. In fact, they gave it back to the opposition to the tune of 53 points from turnovers while, by way of contrast North Melbourne contributed  only 17 points to their oppo

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    COOKED by The Oracle

    I can vividly remember when the Demons ventured onto Blundstone Arena for the first time in early 2016 only to lose to the Kangaroos by 20.11.131 to 21.10.136.    Melbourne was then a team on the up and up: young, enthusiastic and bold. It gave up a huge quarter time deficit after kicking against a strong wind but made that up by half time and fell dramatically short after an exciting high scoring affair.  The team lost no fans that day - they were willing to take the game on and attac

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    HELP by KC rom Casey

    The Casey Demons finished off their home and away season against Frankston at Skybus Stadium on Sunday with a narrow, unconvincing 6-point victory that left the door slightly open for a top eight berth when the VFL finals begin in a fortnight’s time. While sunny skies prevailed over Frankston in the morning, the skies became overcast by noon and heavy waves pounded the bay nearby as the rains came in to greet the players as the game started. And conditions stayed dark and dreary for the rem

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    THANKS BUT NO THANKS by George on the Outer

    Thanks, but no thanks! In a round where the club was supposed to thank their fans for the support during the year, the Melbourne Football Club chose to do otherwise with a 53 point loss to a team that sat 15th on the ladder.  Don’t give us cheap jumpers that can’t be sold in the Demon shop.  Don’t give us vouchers to shop there, give us something on the field, which is why we come to the football in the first place. It was a disgraceful performance, which started with a disgracefu

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    SLEEP OUT AT THE MCG by The Oracle

    Around about 12 months ago Melbourne and Sydney fought out an epic battle between two top eight teams fighting for the best possible ladder position in the lead up to the finals. The Swans triumphed by 9 points at the MCG after the Demons came back from five goals down at three quarter time. But for its poor kicking for goal, Melbourne might well have won the game and finished in the top four. Who knows what might then have happened for the club in September? As a consequence, the person re

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    A LITTLE RAY OF SUNSHINE by KC from Casey

    Two clubs that have been hard hit by injury recently took part in a dour battle under dark clouds and, with intermittent showers falling, it wasn’t a pretty game at Victoria Park on Sunday. Despite all that, the Casey Demons added a little ray of sunshine to their day to get the job done over a "traditional" rival with a 15 point victory over Collingwood VFL that breathed life back into their season. There were a few highlights at the ground that in past days has seen many titanic batt

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    THE RETRO ROUND by George on the Outer

    We have seen it all before… Yes, a wonderful idea to showcase what used to be in football.  Big crowds, umpires who knew how to apply the rules and not opinions, high marks, skilful players. But for the Melbourne supporters their retro is what it has been like for the past 10 years. Losing games, end on end, year after year.  Opportunities squandered in front of goal. VFL standard players running around at the MCG. Just more of the same, and the game against Collingwood was no ex

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    THE PEOPLE SPEAK by The Demonland Crew

    Thanks to Demonlanders for their input into this week’s preview. Ralphius Maximus is short and bittersweet: We'll crack in at the bounce to create a contest, win our share of the ball, butcher the forward movement and get scored on easily from the intercepts. Not that hard to predict. Big Demon says: Unfortunately Collingwood will win because they have a lot more to play for. We will be good in parts but really the season is well over so we will have to put up with those bell

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    WHAT, NO BLOOD? by George on the Outer

    The feeling when turning up to the MCG on a Saturday night to play a top four side in Richmond, while the Melbourne sits cemented in close proximity to the bottom of the table is like attending the Colosseum in Ancient Roman times. The expectation is that a bloodbath is about to occur. There are 100,000 Richmond members and 50,000 Melbourne members, and despite the fact that it turned out to be a wet night after half-time, a crowd of only 37K bothered to turn up. That should never have happ

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    A MAN’S ERRAND by KC from Casey

    A young and undermanned Casey Demons were sent out on Saturday to the Swinburne Centre in the shadows of the MCG on a man’s errand against a very experienced Richmond VFL combination which is the clear ladder leader and fielded no less than 18 AFL listed players. It was expected to be a rout and the Tigers made easy work of it in the early stages when they held a 26 point lead by quarter time. To their credit however, the Demons weathered the storm and kept their opponents within the range

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    THAT’S FOOTBALL by Whispering Jack

    As the season rolls on towards the finals and the football world witnesses the aftermath of the sacking of the league’s unsuccessful coaches, it’s almost  inevitable that the spotlight will turn firmly upon the complete and utter failure of season 2019 - the Melbourne Football Club.  For a team that finished in fourth place last year and was heavily touted as a premiership contender, the fall from grace has been dramatic. As things stand, the Demons look certain to finish 13 places down on

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    THE MOMENT OF TRUTH IS COMING by KC from Casey

    At half time in Sunday’s game at Trevor Barker Beach Oval, things weren’t looking too flash for the flailing finals prospects of the Casey Demons. Key forward Sam Weideman had suffered a concussion in his first contest and, with a few exceptions, the team was playing like a rabble rather than a finals contender. The Demons were 23 points in arrears to the Zebras and their season was headed towards oblivion. It was the skipper Mitch White who spurred his team on by word and by deed - he fini

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

×
×
  • Create New...