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Farewell Jesse Hogan


wizardinoz

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Bulldogs seem interested in Wingard again and "The Dogs are likely to dangle their first-round pick, currently selection six, as part of the deal to get the Power to trade them the two-time All Australian".  http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-04/no-doubt-the-bulldogs-are-keen-on-chad

This would dash Freo's hopes of getting Port's pick 9 and 10 for their pick 4 or 5.  So Freo will only have 4 and 5 and they certainly won't give both up and our chances of getting two top 10 picks go down the gurgler. Depending on their expectations for 2019 they might give up their 2019 1st pick and get something back.  Or it may be pick 5 and a player for Jessie.  Simply, Freo can't trade what they don't have/can't get.

 

Port will go to the draft with 6, 9 and 10 if they trade Wingard and Polec.   As an aside, the sideshow to see which of Adel and Port position themselves highest to get the SA talent will be fascinating.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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45 minutes ago, RedButMostlyBlue said:

...Is it just me, or does this scenario seem perfectly set up for:

[Jesse Hogan is about to sign at the Dockers, he looks up, and a montage plays in his mind]

[Jesse smiles as he reminisces about the good times at the Dees]

[Jesse looks to the East...]

[Cue music, maybe some cliché 80s love song, or Al Green 'Let's Stay Together', for example]

[Jesse gets in his car, and drives cross country through the night, top down, hand tapping on the door]

[He arrives in Melbourne, parks the car hurriedly across a few parking spaces, runs across Gosch's Paddock]

[Jesse runs towards Goody and the boys, who are also running towards him]

[Group hug, tears etc. Goody tells Jesse he never doubted him for a second]

[Jesse re-signs for a bajillion years]

[We win 5 flags]

[Fin]

I see you specialise in fantasy biopics

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13 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

Do you rate him, DD?   Most people think Cerra is the much better prospect.  To those people I say  hold that thought -  we all believed Petracca was twice as good as Angus not so long ago.

Firstly, we don't know who will end up having the better career when it comes to Angus and Petracca and secondly no conclusions could be drawn between Andrew and Cerra even if we could.

It's an irrelevant observation with no answer.

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This footage of Jesse at Freo’s training facility basically cements them into handing over the two top ten picks. 

Very bad PR for them to be tapping up a contracted player, getting their fans all excited then trying to stiff the selling club and walking away from the table with egg on their face. 

Freo have no choice now. They’re all in on Jesse Hogan and will be paying us his due price.

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4 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Bulldogs seem interested in Wingard again and "The Dogs are likely to dangle their first-round pick, currently selection six, as part of the deal to get the Power to trade them the two-time All Australian".  http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-10-04/no-doubt-the-bulldogs-are-keen-on-chad

This would dash Freo's hopes of getting Port's pick 9 and 10 for their pick 4 or 5.  So Freo will only have 4 and 5 and they certainly won't give both up and our chances of getting two top 10 picks go down the gurgler. Depending on their expectations for 2019 they might give up their 2019 1st pick and get something back.  Or it may be pick 5 and a player for Jessie.  Simply, Freo can't trade what they don't have/can't get.

 

Port will go to the draft with 6, 9 and 10 if they trade Wingard and Polec.   As an aside, the sideshow to see which of Adel and Port position themselves highest to get the SA talent will be fascinating.

As an aside, will Port put two of those together to get a higher pick?  Say they trade 6 and 9 for Pick 1, then Carlton sends Pick 6 to GWS for Shiel (if he goes there) while keeping Pick 9 as well.  

There's probably no chance that happens, but it's common knowledge that both SA clubs are looking to get up the draft to nab the home grown talent there, so they may be willing to do some deals.

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19 minutes ago, Redleg said:

Disagree, the arrival of Jesse would be bigger than the departure of Brayshaw. You sell it be saying Jesse wanted to come home, as did Brayshaw and who also wanted to play with his brother, something that would have come up every year, like the Jesse saga.

Keeping 4 or 5 would also soothe the members as there are probably better players than Brayshaw available at that pick.

We would need to trade the pick to Port for 9 and 10 and hope GC would take say 9 and a future pick as well, leaving us say 10 or use the pick and offer GC our first next year and something else as well.

The only sure bet for anyone that Freo supporters would be happy to part ways with is Ross Lyon. 

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Weird to see that footage and make all this stuff sprouted become a reality. I knew it was happening, but seeing that and having that moment was strange!

We'll get something good in return for him. If we get 2 first rounder, we trade one for May and take the other to the draft. If we get Brayshaw and first rounder, do we still trade the first rounder for May and opt out of the first round for the 4th year running?

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18 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

That has been crossing my mind, too. Especially with Jones in his twilight, uniting the Brayshaw brothers as midfield linchpins for the next 8-10 years might have great appeal.

If that doesn’t happen I’ve switched my thinking now away from the 5 & 9 scenario (Old55 is right - Port not guaranteed of landing Lukosius of Rankine in that scenario by trading up for pick 4) ... to pick 5 and Freo’s 2019 first rounder.  That seems a very fair and reasonable trade to me. Without Hogan Freo’s first round pick would surely be a top 6 pick with their list, but with Hogan in their forward line the onus is on them to back themselves in and finish higher on the ladder, say just outside the eight. That would translate to roughly pick 9 or 10 in next year’s draft.

Leave Port out of it. Demand picks 4 & 5 now and then soften to picks 4 and their first round pick in 2019. That’s the deal we should be looking at if an enquiry into Andy Brayshaw falls flat.

You should always plan with an eye towards the future and the possibility of having two solid first round picks in the 2019 draft, say picks 7 and 16 opens up some nice options for us next year. Either to draft in more young talent or trade some quality in for specific needs.

That sort of draft caché could put us in the frame for a Josh Kelly as well.

 

Especially if the first pick next year is 2 or 3 

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2 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

This footage of Jesse at Freo’s training facility basically cements them into handing over the two top ten picks. 

Very bad PR for them to be tapping up a contracted player, getting their fans all excited then trying to stiff the selling club and walking away from the table with egg on their face. 

Freo have no choice now. They’re all in on Jesse Hogan and will be paying us his due price.

As a fellow introvert, I reckon Jesse would hate a process where he publicly commits to Freo and then Freo drag out negotiations for the whole week.

I reckon a deal is virtually done. Wait a day or two into the trade period to look like your negotiating and then make it official.

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1 hour ago, Baghdad Bob said:

Don't be.  If they stuff us around we just don't trade Hogan and they miss out.  They have a lot more to lose than us.

Except, as is the concern I was expressing, we have about ten list spots to fill, and if we can't add quality at the top due to being bogged in drawn-out negotiations then we may get stuck with a bunch of compromises. Keep Hogan, but a go nowhere trade-week. 

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Reckon it comes down to one thing.  The size of the contract.  If he walked in to the shockers to check out the gym and the showers, I would be surprised.  I think it’s to hear them spray warm yellow liquid down the back of his neck whilst waving wads of cash at him.  If he feels warm and fuzzy and the bucks are big enough, he can avoid being mercenary by saying ‘go home factor’.

as the shockers have no one else, they will probably throw a massive deal with long term legs at him.  Think Buddy Franklin or bigger

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24 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

Do you rate him, DD?   Most people think Cerra is the much better prospect.  To those people I say  hold that thought -  we all believed Petracca was twice as good as Angus not so long ago.

lol speak for yourself... and maybe a few others.

I have never thought Trac is better.

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3 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

As an aside, will Port put two of those together to get a higher pick?  Say they trade 6 and 9 for Pick 1, then Carlton sends Pick 6 to GWS for Shiel (if he goes there) while keeping Pick 9 as well.  

There's probably no chance that happens, but it's common knowledge that both SA clubs are looking to get up the draft to nab the home grown talent there, so they may be willing to do some deals.

Doubt Carlton will do anything with pick 1. I think Gold Coast would be wise to move backwards a few spots to pick kids who actually agree to go there. The counter is that might be the South Australian's!

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I reckon we should take both picks to the bank and pick up the twins.

I want a premiership but I'm greedy and want a dynasty, we've missed the top end of the draft for too many years for mine.

Otherwise, ask for another brayshaw brother and a pick to trade in May.

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