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biggestred

St Kilda

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Ive been reflecting for the last few days, and while im disappointed in how we played on saturday, something has been gnawing at me.

so i did a bit of quick research.

we have a pattern of losing to much lesser teams and it costing us at the end of the year.

2018

Lost to st Kilda (finished 16th) – missed top 4 (instead of 3rd), end up playing away to wce in prelim

2017

Lost to dockers at mcg (finished 14th), lost to kangaroos twice (15th) – missed finals by %

2006

Lost to carlton twice (3 wins) – finish 7th 1 game out of top 4

2004

Lost to hawks (4 wins) – finish 5th, a game out of top 4

1998

Lost to dockers (15th) – finish 4th instead of 2nd

ive pretty much just looked at finals years and losses to teams who finished bottom 4 (wasnt much point looking at 2012 for example)

if we ever want to be a REAL force in september, we have to make sure we dont drop these games.

of course, what if, what if. but off days in may cause problems in september.

 

Edit - left out 2002 (should have beaten adelaide in that final) and 2000 - we didnt drop a silly game in 2000 and made the GF. Shock horror.

Edited by biggestred
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For as long as I can remember, the Demons have been very influenced by the emotion and intensity of games and of streaks, for good and for ill.

I recall as far back as 2004 Neale Daniher was adamant that we needed to develop a 'ruthless edge' that unfortunately never materialised, I would argue because of circumstance rather than any particular failure.

All our seasons are characterised by surges and troughs, just like this season with two incredible surges either side of a major mid-late season stumble.

Our team is young enough to continue evolving and maturing. We have to hope that the disappointment of that first half of the Prelim will sit within the players as a brutal reminder that passion and momentum can take you a long way, but it is professionalism and concentration that will hold you steady when emotions waver.

Fact is, if we can add a bit more cold steel to the mental mix without throwing away the enthusiastic unity, we'll stomp everyone in our path, good day or bad.

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6 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

 

I recall as far back as 2004 Neale Daniher was adamant that we needed to develop a 'ruthless edge' that unfortunately never materialised, I would argue because of circumstance rather than any particular failure.

All our seasons are characterised by surges and troughs, just like this season with two incredible surges either side of a major mid-late season stumble.

 

Cannot remember a year when we easily made the finals. Even the year where we were top of the ladder with a few rounds to go we were that full of injuries we lost every game after that.

Emotional roller coasters and the MFC go hand in hand.

poor old Tiger fans.. spent the whole year waiting for the GF and fell at what they thought would be a regualtion hurdle before the big day.

Not sure what is worse

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3 hours ago, biggestred said:

Ive been reflecting for the last few days, and while im disappointed in how we played on saturday, something has been gnawing at me.

so i did a bit of quick research.

we have a pattern of losing to much lesser teams and it costing us at the end of the year.

2018

Lost to st Kilda (finished 16th) – missed top 4 (instead of 3rd), end up playing away to wce in prelim

2017

Lost to dockers at mcg (finished 14th), lost to kangaroos twice (15th) – missed finals by %

2006

Lost to carlton twice (3 wins) – finish 7th 1 game out of top 4

2004

Lost to hawks (4 wins) – finish 5th, a game out of top 4

1998

Lost to dockers (15th) – finish 4th instead of 2nd

ive pretty much just looked at finals years and losses to teams who finished bottom 4 (wasnt much point looking at 2012 for example)

if we ever want to be a REAL force in september, we have to make sure we dont drop these games.

of course, what if, what if. but off days in may cause problems in september.

 

Edit - left out 2002 (should have beaten adelaide in that final) and 2000 - we didnt drop a silly game in 2000 and made the GF. Shock horror.

Pretty sure I was at that Hawks game. They had something special brewing that day with dazzling movement out of the centre. Got a big break in us early and took us totally by surprise.

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7 minutes ago, layzie said:

Some good points here but why is the thread called 'St Kilda'? Haha

Haha fair. Just because we lost to them this year. Should change it probably 

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The 2016 late season loss to Carlton was a shining example of this as well - we were a mathematical chance of the 8 in Roosy's last season and the wheels completely fell off. But we should have beaten the Blues. 

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I think you'll find if you go through every year, almost every team in the top 8 would have lost a game where they "shouldn't" have.  And if they had won it, it would have made a difference.  

 

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It has definitely been an issue in the past, but not really this year. St Kilda were the only rubbish team we lost to, and as mentioned above, pretty much all teams are going to drop at least one of these games along the way.

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Hardly worth thinking about for 2018 - we got to the prelim anyway, top 4 mostly irrelevant at that point. 

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I thought this thread was going to be about how t was disappointing to finish fourth but hey, at least we’re not St Kilda!

They and we have been paired together since 2011 or so in terms of re-build

We’ve now finished higher on the ladder than them in consecutive years 

I would much rather be an MFC supporter than an Aints one at the moment

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Those two loses to Carlton in 06 were bloody infuriating and in hindsight a look into the future for the next decade. Fancy giving a 3-win team 2 of their wins for the season! fmd.

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5 hours ago, praha said:

Those two loses to Carlton in 06 were bloody infuriating and in hindsight a look into the future for the next decade. Fancy giving a 3-win team 2 of their wins for the season! fmd.

Especially since both games were at the Dome. Round 1 because of the Comm Games, but it was our home game. The second time was Carlton's home game. We should have played R1 at the Dome for a Carlton home game and the second one at the MCG for our home game.

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13 hours ago, Tony Tea said:

Especially since both games were at the Dome. Round 1 because of the Comm Games, but it was our home game. The second time was Carlton's home game. We should have played R1 at the Dome for a Carlton home game and the second one at the MCG for our home game.

If I remember correctly one with the roof closed, one with it open. Didn't make a difference though.

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15 hours ago, Tony Tea said:

Especially since both games were at the Dome. Round 1 because of the Comm Games, but it was our home game. The second time was Carlton's home game. We should have played R1 at the Dome for a Carlton home game and the second one at the MCG for our home game.

Or maybe the coach could've developed a side capable of winning elsewhere. The round 1 game was a typical round 1 shocker, they happen sometimes

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On 9/24/2018 at 5:35 PM, demon-4-life said:

I think you'll find if you go through every year, almost every team in the top 8 would have lost a game where they "shouldn't" have.  And if they had won it, it would have made a difference.  

 

Agreed. If anything St Kilda was really our only loss to a poor club this year which points to improvement. In 2017 losses to Collingwood, Fremantle, Hawthorn and North x2 were far more costly. Unless you’re a very special team at least one game for the season will be a write off. The challenge in 2019 is to win some more close games and win ugly (when we’re not playing well).

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On 9/24/2018 at 1:25 PM, biggestred said:

 

No disrespect to the OP... Good start to a thread and well researched.

But if you're missing out on GFs because of a couple of games, close ones, then it's just part of the maths of the thing. We lost a handful of close games this year, and didn't win any close ones. It's a statistical anomaly that will correct itself. There'll be years in the future we go 12-10 and win 4 close ones, lose 0 close ones... Does that mean we're worse?

Being clutch is something they talk about a lot in US sports. The games are designed within the rules to always be close. AFL isn't like that. We were unlucky to not be top 4 this year. Let's not forget though that we were out of finals last year. Next year we'll improve again. It's the way of things. 

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On 9/24/2018 at 1:38 PM, Little Goffy said:

For as long as I can remember, the Demons have been very influenced by the emotion and intensity of games and of streaks, for good and for ill.

I recall as far back as 2004 Neale Daniher was adamant that we needed to develop a 'ruthless edge' that unfortunately never materialised, I would argue because of circumstance rather than any particular failure.

All our seasons are characterised by surges and troughs, just like this season with two incredible surges either side of a major mid-late season stumble.

Our team is young enough to continue evolving and maturing. We have to hope that the disappointment of that first half of the Prelim will sit within the players as a brutal reminder that passion and momentum can take you a long way, but it is professionalism and concentration that will hold you steady when emotions waver.

Fact is, if we can add a bit more cold steel to the mental mix without throwing away the enthusiastic unity, we'll stomp everyone in our path, good day or bad.

A part of that ruthless edge is driven by the supporter ferocity and hunger... the players need to be hungry, but the supporters have to be insatiable.

The crowd's noise/power, inspires/drives the kill.   It feeds or quells, the emotion/mood/drive.

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I actually think St Kilda will be a lot better next year. They'll be competing for the bottom half of the 8 IMO. They'll get their pressure game back and with a few new additions should win 12-13 games.

I know this is about our poor loss to them, but they're better than they dished up this season. Richardson will tweak things and I think it'll do the trick.

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