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Will 12 be enough


davejemmolly
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2 hours ago, A F said:

Yep, if we only win 2 more, our percentage will no longer be healthy. Even if we have close games. That's not how percentage works. :P

If you lose (or win) games which are low scoring the percentage change can be small.

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The geelong and adelaide games are essentially 8-point games. If we win at least one of the two, we probably make finals at the expense of the losing team.

If we lose both, i'm pretty sure we miss the top 8.

Edited by Maluski
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3 hours ago, sue said:

If you lose (or win) games which are low scoring the percentage change can be small.

Can be big too. A few teams have lost 3% in losing by 2 and a bit goals. If you do that 2 or 3 times and you're back with the rest of the pack.

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An Adelaide mate /  supporter sent me some info recenty that we hadn’t beaten anyone above us. Which is true. I sent him back our last result and the result of the last grand final.... point for this thread?

At the end of the day if we don’t beat anyone above us in the next few rounds [censored] finals there is no point being there. I have faith the boys can do it. But I’d rather not make it and pay no attention to finals than get there and be an embarrassment..

although apparently these days if you make finals yours a chance....

Edited by Dusty_Hill
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Had a dream last night. We just scraped into the finals. We were playing Collingwood. Everything conspired against me to get to the game on time or to get a score update. I finally get to the game at half time. The scores were Melbourne 1.16.22 and Collingwood 12.5.77. Then I woke up. Proof this club messes with my brain. 

Edited by america de cali
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10 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

No, it's just that one of us is capable of nuanced thought whilst the other one appears to only see things in BLACK and WHITE.

Some see forests...some trees.

Finals are not the end all....though they end all too soon for some.

Finals are but a means to an end. If by chance your inference of b/w infers I see the game as winning/ losing then in the main you're correct. Though isn't any game that's scored about winning/losing.

I enjoy the spectacle of us playing well, but I want to win. I want us to be successful. I want us to win Premierships.

In the meantime many seem content among the nuances.

Win...lose.... it's actually a very b/w notion....even for us Red and Blue.

 

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Finals is an important stepping stone on the way to the ultimate goal.  Even if we play one final this year and drop out, it's 1 extra game of finals experience the side gets.  

It also breaks the finals drought, paving the way for the assault on the flag for the next few years.

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Have a good feeling about the next month. Last years failure has served us well % wise and the boys will be sharp and hungry to cement the spot ASAP. 

Reckon we’ll end up meeting a resurgent GWS last round and again in the first elimination... so it won’t be easy unless we can step up a gear or two over the run in.

Edited by PaulRB
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6 hours ago, Dusty_Hill said:

An Adelaide mate /  supporter sent me some info recenty that we hadn’t beaten anyone above us. Which is true. I sent him back our last result and the result of the last grand final.... point for this thread?

At the end of the day if we don’t beat anyone above us in the next few rounds [censored] finals there is no point being there. I have faith the boys can do it. But I’d rather not make it and pay no attention to finals than get there and be an embarrassment..

although apparently these days if you make finals yours a chance....

technically, depending on some results, we could beat Geelong, Adelaide, GCS, lose to Syd lose to WCE beat GWS and we'd STILL not have beaten anyone above us

 

PS Squiggle has a rad new finals pencil-innerer

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10 minutes ago, PaulRB said:

Have a good feeling about the next month. Last years failure has served us well % wise and the boys will be sharp and hungry to cement the spot ASAP. 

Reckon we’ll end up meeting a resurgent GWS last round and again in the first elimination... so it won’t be easy unless we can step up a gear or two over the run in.

I have us lose to Syd and WCE beating SunsCats Crows GWS and playing GWS  in Syd W1.

19 minutes ago, Rossmillan said:

Finals is an important stepping stone on the way to the ultimate goal.  Even if we play one final this year and drop out, it's 1 extra game of finals experience the side gets.  

It also breaks the finals drought, paving the way for the assault on the flag for the next few years.

this

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23 minutes ago, Rossmillan said:

Finals is an important stepping stone on the way to the ultimate goal.  Even if we play one final this year and drop out, it's 1 extra game of finals experience the side gets.  

It also breaks the finals drought, paving the way for the assault on the flag for the next few years.

Finals schminals....people forget we should have played finals last year and were in the hunt the year before before capitulating. The stepping stone is overdue, if we miss, it's a massive failure.

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8 hours ago, A F said:

Can be big too. A few teams have lost 3% in losing by 2 and a bit goals. If you do that 2 or 3 times and you're back with the rest of the pack.

Only if the games were high scoring.  Best illustrated by taking extreme examples:  Lose by 1 point in a 3 points to 2 points game and your total for and against for the year hardly change.  Lose by 1 point in a 5001 to 5000 point game and your percentage will be 100% since the previously accumulated for and against will be insignificant compared to 5000.    Therefore losing by 2 goals in a low scoring match won't change percentage as much as losing by the same margin in a high scoring game

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31 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

Finals schminals....people forget we should have played finals last year and were in the hunt the year before before capitulating. The stepping stone is overdue, if we miss, it's a massive failure.

Getting in the 8 is a relatively low bar in an 18 team competition. Being the highest scoring team in the comp by a long way should in theory give us top 4 credentials. Just scraping into the 8 is really a C- pass.

Edited by america de cali
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6 hours ago, Dusty_Hill said:

An Adelaide mate /  supporter sent me some info recenty that we hadn’t beaten anyone above us. Which is true. I sent him back our last result and the result of the last grand final.... point for this thread?

 

Fine so at this stage we will beat girlong,Adelaide,Gold coast and Gws. 14 wins and we are in .I would be questioning the stability of your Adelaide mate.

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17 hours ago, Demonland said:

Not sure if you are referring to just me or the site in general.

If just me I will reiterate my position. I have no problem with falling into the 8 with 12 wins not having beaten a Top 8. If we fail to make the 8 with 12 wins not having beaten a Top 8 side then we do not deserve to be in the finals.

Not at anyone in particular - just a light hearted comment :)

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7 hours ago, sue said:

Only if the games were high scoring.  Best illustrated by taking extreme examples:  Lose by 1 point in a 3 points to 2 points game and your total for and against for the year hardly change.  Lose by 1 point in a 5001 to 5000 point game and your percentage will be 100% since the previously accumulated for and against will be insignificant compared to 5000.    Therefore losing by 2 goals in a low scoring match won't change percentage as much as losing by the same margin in a high scoring game

Richmond lost 3% a couple of weeks ago when they lost to Port by 14 points and the scores were relatively low (72 to 58). 

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8 hours ago, MSFebey said:

Finals schminals....people forget we should have played finals last year and were in the hunt the year before before capitulating. The stepping stone is overdue, if we miss, it's a massive failure.

Yep. If we get 14 wins that should see us in, but doing it the hard way.

The loss against Collingwood ( and lack of leadership in such a crunch game) together with our efforts in the close ones have made our current position so unecessarily cut throat and perilous.

Not much room for error now. 

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1 hour ago, A F said:

Richmond lost 3% a couple of weeks ago when they lost to Port by 14 points and the scores were relatively low (72 to 58). 

Sure.  Just an example of basic arithmetic, doesn't invalidate what I said.  MFC would have to do that in every game for our percentage to fall to the lowest in the current 8.

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9 hours ago, MSFebey said:

Finals schminals....people forget we should have played finals last year and were in the hunt the year before before capitulating. The stepping stone is overdue, if we miss, it's a massive failure.

Should of but didn't!

make the finals is the first goal, then let it ride see what happens

IMG_0344.PNG

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30 minutes ago, Dockett 32 said:

Yep. If we get 14 wins that should see us in, but doing it the hard way.

The loss against Collingwood ( and lack of leadership in such a crunch game) together with our efforts in the close ones have made our current position so unecessarily cut throat and perilous.

Not much room for error now. 

Not much ??  No room !!

Everyone is playing ' blink'  now. We need to win...win...win...

Every game we lose from here on makes it doubly hard / likely thereafter.

If we lose these next two....? ☹️☹️☹️

Any more injuries....not good.

If we haven't won 14... it'll be a major struggle.....even if we do fall in.

Others have said....those games we lost...that we should not have....coming back to gnaw on our behind now.

Put up or shut up time for the club.

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