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Posted (edited)

More revisionist stuff re the draft?

We pluck kids out of high school and then attach some random number to these kids and then bestow greatness on the single-figured numbered kids as if the whole thing is somehow accurate

 The draft is best described as a glorified lucky dip with lots of nice prizes if you pick the right players.  All the top end picks and nearly all first round picks are standout juniors but only about half of the draftees ever come up to the unrealistic expectations. 

And then we have the shouda couda wouda people with their hindsight offerings. 

I am surprised that these debates still go on.

Edited by Macca
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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Macca said:

More revisionist stuff re the draft?

We pluck kids out of high school and then attach some random number to these kids and then bestow greatness on the single-figured numbered kids as if the whole thing is somehow accurate

 The draft is best described as a glorified lucky dip with lots of nice prizes if you pick the right players.  All the top end picks and nearly all first round picks are standout juniors but only about half of the draftees ever come up to the unrealistic expectations. 

And then we have the shouda couda wouda people with their hindsight offerings. 

I am surprised that these debates still go on.

Why have paid recruiters at all then in that case? Just take 10 phantom drafts from Knightmare and his mates at BigFooty, come up with an Excel spreadsheet and voila - job done! 

Well done Macca you just saved the club hundreds of thousands of $$$.

Edited by Matsuo Basho

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The problem is we are great in hind sight so we just develop the player we got, to the best of his ability and move on.

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9 minutes ago, Matsuo Basho said:

Why have paid recruiters at all then in that case? Just take 10 phantom drafts from Knightmare and his mates at BigFooty, come up with an Excel spreadsheet and voila - job done! 

Well done Macca you just saved the club hundreds of thousands of $$$.

Your idea actually has merit when considering all the data available.

We could have done a lor better during that horror draft period by simply drawing names out of a hat.  Such are the vagaries of drafting

You should read up on the history of drafting in baseball ... a complete crap-shoot although Houston lucked out by drafting 3 guns in 3 consecutive years after tanking 3 years in a row.

The luck factor in drafting cannot be overplayed enough.  It is an inexact science and most probably always will be.

But belief systems are belief systems so my words are only directed at 15% of the draft believers.  Most others have bought in and are therefore all-in

Just like your good self RR. 

Good to have you back but on this occasion we'll have to agree at disagree.

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On 6/16/2019 at 6:46 PM, Demonsone said:

Further evidence we are poor at selecting talent!

“Toumpas was a highly touted junior prospect, who captained the South Australian under 18 side and was selected in the draft ahead of the likes of Jake Stringer, Jackson Macrae, Ollie Wines, Nick Vlastuin and Brodie Grundy.”

The thing is, people are happy to slam the drafting of certain players but never analyse things deeper. So many simpletons here. 

For example, let's look at Hrovat vs Viney. Same height, both inside bulls, both had similar numbers as juniors, Hrovat the better kick. But people look back and go Hrovat didn't make it as a player but Viney became a captain but both had very similar junior careers. 

People are experts in hindsight but can't actually pinpoint WHY a player didn't succeed over another player. 

How many people here actually watched Salem at under 18 games on a regular basis? How many watched Kelly? How many tracked their draft camp results/their psych interviews?

The level of analysis is quite embarrassing really.

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46 minutes ago, Macca said:

Your idea actually has merit when considering all the data available.

We could have done a lor better during that horror draft period by simply drawing names out of a hat.  Such are the vagaries of drafting

You should read up on the history of drafting in baseball ... a complete crap-shoot although Houston lucked out by drafting 3 guns in 3 consecutive years after tanking 3 years in a row.

The luck factor in drafting cannot be overplayed enough.  It is an inexact science and most probably always will be.

But belief systems are belief systems so my words are only directed at 15% of the draft believers.  Most others have bought in and are therefore all-in

Just like your good self RR. 

Good to have you back but on this occasion we'll have to agree at disagree.

I've always rated your posts Macca. Good stuff.

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36 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

The thing is, people are happy to slam the drafting of certain players but never analyse things deeper. So many simpletons here. 

For example, let's look at Hrovat vs Viney. Same height, both inside bulls, both had similar numbers as juniors, Hrovat the better kick. But people look back and go Hrovat didn't make it as a player but Viney became a captain but both had very similar junior careers. 

People are experts in hindsight but can't actually pinpoint WHY a player didn't succeed over another player. 

How many people here actually watched Salem at under 18 games on a regular basis? How many watched Kelly? How many tracked their draft camp results/their psych interviews?

The level of analysis is quite embarrassing really.

Those questions are clearly too detailed for supporters far removed the analytical process an AFL recruiter who watches these kids day in, day out over multiple years. 

But how does that translate into an inability to analyse 'hits and misses' over a 5-7 years period relative to the most successful clubs in the competition? You're basically precluding everyone bar seasoned AFL recruiters from having the right and ability to look into this data, which is preposterous. Do you think that would be good enough for an outside review firm coming in to audit and pick over things? "Sorry guys you'll have to steer clear of the recruiting stuff because you just wouldn't understand the intricacies of it". "Move along nothing to se here". 

It's actually very easy to make an assessment (albeit with a little more depth than I've provided in this thread). You've just got to be willing to turn over the rocks and accept the truth of what you see underneath them. It doesn't help the situation to be unwilling to at least even do that.

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17 minutes ago, Matsuo Basho said:

Those questions are clearly too detailed for supporters far removed the analytical process an AFL recruiter who watches these kids day in, day out over multiple years. 

But how does that translate into an inability to analyse 'hits and misses' over a 5-7 years period relative to the most successful clubs in the competition? You're basically precluding everyone bar seasoned AFL recruiters from having the right and ability to look into this data, which is preposterous. Do you think that would be good enough for an outside review firm coming in to audit and pick over things? "Sorry guys you'll have to steer clear of the recruiting stuff because you just wouldn't understand the intricacies of it". "Move along nothing to se here". 

It's actually very easy to make an assessment (albeit with a little more depth than I've provided in this thread). You've just got to be willing to turn over the rocks and accept the truth of what you see underneath them. It doesn't help the situation to be unwilling to at least even do that.

More hyperbole

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3 hours ago, Matsuo Basho said:

Those questions are clearly too detailed for supporters far removed the analytical process an AFL recruiter who watches these kids day in, day out over multiple years. 

But how does that translate into an inability to analyse 'hits and misses' over a 5-7 years period relative to the most successful clubs in the competition? You're basically precluding everyone bar seasoned AFL recruiters from having the right and ability to look into this data, which is preposterous. Do you think that would be good enough for an outside review firm coming in to audit and pick over things? "Sorry guys you'll have to steer clear of the recruiting stuff because you just wouldn't understand the intricacies of it". "Move along nothing to se here". 

It's actually very easy to make an assessment (albeit with a little more depth than I've provided in this thread). You've just got to be willing to turn over the rocks and accept the truth of what you see underneath them. It doesn't help the situation to be unwilling to at least even do that.

Because you're questioning taylors decision making right? So how can you question his decision making if you aren't sure what decisions he was choosing between?  you dont have all the data. 

You can only make the best decision at the time. let's look at Tom boyd. clearly the best player in his draft. was genuine key position size, had proven form again men and dominated playing for eastern ranges. every club would've taken him at 1. 

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13 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

Because you're questioning taylors decision making right? So how can you question his decision making if you aren't sure what decisions he was choosing between?  you dont have all the data. 

You can only make the best decision at the time. let's look at Tom boyd. clearly the best player in his draft. was genuine key position size, had proven form again men and dominated playing for eastern ranges. every club would've taken him at 1. 

I've got all the data I need to make a prima facie case. Please stop looking at individual cases and view Taylor's record from 2013 - 2017.

Looking at those names and the state of the current MFC list I see:

- Poor depth

- Too many list holes (relative to the top clubs)

- 3w - 9L and 16th with a %age of 76 after round 12

If you're going to defend him then please defend that.

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Lots of hindsight heroes who won't give their ranking of this year's crop 🐓

 

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20 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

Lots of hindsight heroes who won't give their ranking of this year's crop 🐓

 

Don’t know if you’re referring to me given you said you’d be putting me on ignore.

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1 hour ago, Matsuo Basho said:

I've got all the data I need to make a prima facie case. Please stop looking at individual cases and view Taylor's record from 2013 - 2017.

Looking at those names and the state of the current MFC list I see:

- Poor depth

- Too many list holes (relative to the top clubs)

- 3w - 9L and 16th with a %age of 76 after round 12

If you're going to defend him then please defend that.

Mat i believe you are marking JT a bit too harshly .Well actually a lot too harshly .Drafting is  essentially a game of probability .Athough there are plenty of exceptions ,the rule of thumb is the higher the draft choice the better the chances of success .It  is not difficult to rate the top draft picks in advance and the clubs all come up with much the same list .The art is in finding players who are not  in the top picks J T could only play the cards dealt to him and he was  largely dealt a poor hand .This year his first pick was 27 and even by then you are getting into the speculative arena .He took Sparrow and he is a definite maybe .James jordan was next at 33 and he is in a similar boat to Sparrow .in 2017 his first picks weren't until 29 and 31 .He took Spargo and Fritsch and both proved good enough to play finals football in their first season .In 2016 the first pick was 46 which is almost "we"ll pass " territory.He took Hannan who once again was  a player good enough to make our finals team.In 2015 he was dealt  a couple of aces in picks 4 and 9 and took Oliver and Weideman .We know   their ability .Oliver is a superstar and Weed at least a long term player .Similarly in 2014 he had trac  at 2 and Brayshaw at 3 .Both are wonderful talents .In the same draft his next pick was 40 which was Nibbbler ,another finals player .In 2013 he took Salem at 9 and he will finish high in this years b and f  .40 Was jkh  and he even snagged a good player at 57 in hunt .Compare that to his predecessor. in the 2011 draft he took the devastatingly underwhelming selections of  Taggart Tynan  and  Sellar. 25 games between the 3 of them .If JT can get high picks he will draft top players  but that said he in my view has done pretty well with even the low picks ..

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17 hours ago, kallangurdemon said:

Mat i believe you are marking JT a bit too harshly .Well actually a lot too harshly .Drafting is  essentially a game of probability .Athough there are plenty of exceptions ,the rule of thumb is the higher the draft choice the better the chances of success .It  is not difficult to rate the top draft picks in advance and the clubs all come up with much the same list .The art is in finding players who are not  in the top picks J T could only play the cards dealt to him and he was  largely dealt a poor hand .This year his first pick was 27 and even by then you are getting into the speculative arena .He took Sparrow and he is a definite maybe .James jordan was next at 33 and he is in a similar boat to Sparrow .in 2017 his first picks weren't until 29 and 31 .He took Spargo and Fritsch and both proved good enough to play finals football in their first season .In 2016 the first pick was 46 which is almost "we"ll pass " territory.He took Hannan who once again was  a player good enough to make our finals team.In 2015 he was dealt  a couple of aces in picks 4 and 9 and took Oliver and Weideman .We know   their ability .Oliver is a superstar and Weed at least a long term player .Similarly in 2014 he had trac  at 2 and Brayshaw at 3 .Both are wonderful talents .In the same draft his next pick was 40 which was Nibbbler ,another finals player .In 2013 he took Salem at 9 and he will finish high in this years b and f  .40 Was jkh  and he even snagged a good player at 57 in hunt .Compare that to his predecessor. in the 2011 draft he took the devastatingly underwhelming selections of  Taggart Tynan  and  Sellar. 25 games between the 3 of them .If JT can get high picks he will draft top players  but that said he in my view has done pretty well with even the low picks ..

good summary. not sure about this years crop from Casey reports but his hit rate his high. people forget how ordinary our list was.

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, Matsuo Basho said:

I've got all the data I need to make a prima facie case. Please stop looking at individual cases and view Taylor's record from 2013 - 2017.

Looking at those names and the state of the current MFC list I see:

- Poor depth

- Too many list holes (relative to the top clubs)

- 3w - 9L and 16th with a %age of 76 after round 12

If you're going to defend him then please defend that.

 

lol, you're looking at it like an absolute simpleton. You can't look at the win/loss record to make a judgment call on Jason Taylor. According to you, Jason Taylor was amazing because he got us to a prelim last year? Last year, we were applauded for our amazing depth across all areas (except for maybe key defence).  So Jason Taylor went from really good to really bad in 6 months? lol

Personally, the issue is Goodwin and the coaches in general for not addressing goal kicking woes in the off-season.  I also think Fritsch needed to be played forward. Petracca also needed to be played away from forward 50m until he sorts his kicking out. I mentioned Petraccas poor kicking when everyone was frothing at the mouth about him and got shut down for it. Quite frankly, I'm sick of being a year ahead of most people on this board. Viney needed to lose 5kg in the off-season to help with speed and that zone defence rubbish to be abolished. Also, playing Joel Smith against Brisbane after he injured his groin certainly didn't help. Has been out for the year since then. I also wouldn't have caved in to Peter Bell and I would've played harder ball with Gold Coast for May. We could've had Rozee with our top 5 pick. So all of these things create many reasons why I would be a far better coach than Goodwin :)

Edited by Dr.D
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18 hours ago, kallangurdemon said:

Mat i believe you are marking JT a bit too harshly .Well actually a lot too harshly .Drafting is  essentially a game of probability .Athough there are plenty of exceptions ,the rule of thumb is the higher the draft choice the better the chances of success .It  is not difficult to rate the top draft picks in advance and the clubs all come up with much the same list .The art is in finding players who are not  in the top picks J T could only play the cards dealt to him and he was  largely dealt a poor hand .This year his first pick was 27 and even by then you are getting into the speculative arena .He took Sparrow and he is a definite maybe .James jordan was next at 33 and he is in a similar boat to Sparrow .in 2017 his first picks weren't until 29 and 31 .He took Spargo and Fritsch and both proved good enough to play finals football in their first season .In 2016 the first pick was 46 which is almost "we"ll pass " territory.He took Hannan who once again was  a player good enough to make our finals team.In 2015 he was dealt  a couple of aces in picks 4 and 9 and took Oliver and Weideman .We know   their ability .Oliver is a superstar and Weed at least a long term player .Similarly in 2014 he had trac  at 2 and Brayshaw at 3 .Both are wonderful talents .In the same draft his next pick was 40 which was Nibbbler ,another finals player .In 2013 he took Salem at 9 and he will finish high in this years b and f  .40 Was jkh  and he even snagged a good player at 57 in hunt .Compare that to his predecessor. in the 2011 draft he took the devastatingly underwhelming selections of  Taggart Tynan  and  Sellar. 25 games between the 3 of them .If JT can get high picks he will draft top players  but that said he in my view has done pretty well with even the low picks ..

 Am I right in assuming Taylor would have played a role in recruiting of players from other Clubs. If correct then this gave Taylor far earlier picks than the ones you discussed. Such as the picks used on Lever, may and others. 

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19 hours ago, kallangurdemon said:

Mat i believe you are marking JT a bit too harshly .Well actually a lot too harshly .Drafting is  essentially a game of probability .Athough there are plenty of exceptions ,the rule of thumb is the higher the draft choice the better the chances of success .It  is not difficult to rate the top draft picks in advance and the clubs all come up with much the same list .The art is in finding players who are not  in the top picks J T could only play the cards dealt to him and he was  largely dealt a poor hand .This year his first pick was 27 and even by then you are getting into the speculative arena .He took Sparrow and he is a definite maybe .James jordan was next at 33 and he is in a similar boat to Sparrow .in 2017 his first picks weren't until 29 and 31 .He took Spargo and Fritsch and both proved good enough to play finals football in their first season .In 2016 the first pick was 46 which is almost "we"ll pass " territory.He took Hannan who once again was  a player good enough to make our finals team.In 2015 he was dealt  a couple of aces in picks 4 and 9 and took Oliver and Weideman .We know   their ability .Oliver is a superstar and Weed at least a long term player .Similarly in 2014 he had trac  at 2 and Brayshaw at 3 .Both are wonderful talents .In the same draft his next pick was 40 which was Nibbbler ,another finals player .In 2013 he took Salem at 9 and he will finish high in this years b and f  .40 Was jkh  and he even snagged a good player at 57 in hunt .Compare that to his predecessor. in the 2011 draft he took the devastatingly underwhelming selections of  Taggart Tynan  and  Sellar. 25 games between the 3 of them .If JT can get high picks he will draft top players  but that said he in my view has done pretty well with even the low picks ..

I'm surprised to see you joined Demonland in 2006. Anyone who has been around Demonland this long would know there were similar threads claiming how good Prendegast  and Cameron were doing and all the gems they picked up.

All the threads about how good Gysberts, Tapscott, Petterd, Blease, Bennell and Grimes were and then as time passes everyone looks back and can see just how badly we did.

JT has had better picks than most clubs during his time and with what he had to work with has done an OK job, I just find it hard to read the posts where people claim he will pick up another 'gem' like he is a star recruiter.

BP didn't do a great job, but to judge him on the 2011 draft with the picks we had and the Mark Neeld money ball strategy is unfair.

When you are analysing 2013 you completely miss the point. A top line recruiter would have been able to identify how good Kelly was and advise/stop the club from trading the pick for Tyson and Salem. The fact he didn't recognise Kelly's talent is a poor reflection on him. The fact he would have selected Lewis Taylor had Salem not been available is a poor reflection on him. 

Jason Taylor is not good at picking small players, they seem to always lack the point of difference required (Spargo, JKH are mind boggling, as they are not forwards and never going to make it as mids). Versatility is great, but it's better to be good at something than ok at everything. 

On a side not, I remember a poster mentioned that Sparrow was on Hawthorns do not draft list. In the limited amount I have seen, I have found the way he holds the ball and takes possession of the ball to be awkward and inefficient. Moves a bit robotically and takes a while to move ball to hand or foot, like Tapscott. I am yet to see anything to excite me, but find it strange posters are trading Viney because we have Sparrow coming through. Unfortunately, I don't believe these aspects are as high on our recruitment teams' list as they are on other clubs.

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