Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 9

[Demonland 64,361]

BREAKING THROUGH by JVM

Carlton’s breakthrough win last Saturday breathed new life into a club that’s been struggling for quite a while but their down time has been nowhere near as long as that of Melbourne and even of late, they have caused the Demons plenty of headaches.

In Round 21 2015, they were rank outsiders but stormed to an eight goal half time lead on the way to a 23-point win. Twelve months later, they led all day to dash the Dees’ faint hopes of a finals berth and won by 20 points. In their first meeting early last year, the dogged Blues led into the final quarter in a bitter game that saw the costly loss for some weeks of two Demon players through suspension and later in the year, their encounter was tense and close until the final siren saw Melbourne win by just 8 points after a goal on the siren. A finals aspirant would, in the normal course, be expected a combined winning margin in two games against the team that finishes 16th of more than 30 points (not to mention that it should not lose twice to the team that finishes 15th).

Therein lies the dilemma for the Melbourne Football Club. The past three weeks suggest that those days are behind it but Sunday will be the litmus test. If the Demons want to make the finals, this is a must win. 

And why not?

They are, after all, the leading team in terms of winning the contested ball at stoppages, they lead the competition in forward thrusts and have one of the toughest small men in the game coming back this week. 

There will be no excuses this week – the Bombers have been pilloried for their ineptitude against Carlton and yet they lost only because of their inaccuracy with 28 scoring shots to 21 and finishing with more inside 50s. On the strength of that, the Demons have them well covered and should win and win well. It’s their turn to break through.

Melbourne by 55 points.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Carlton at MCG Sunday 20th May 2018 at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Carlton 117 wins Melbourne 91 wins Drawn 2

 At MCG Carlton 50 wins Melbourne 51 wins

Past five meetings Carlton 2 wins Melbourne 3 wins

The Coaches Bolton 0 wins Goodwin 2 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel Live at 1.00pm

RADIO - TBA

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 14.6.90 defeated Carlton 12.10.82 at the MCG Round 16, 2017

The Demons came into the game with several key players missing due to injury, particularly its co-captains Jack Viney and Nathan Jones but also Jack Watts and Dom Tyson. They were strongly tested by the lowly Blues who had injury problems of their own. The Demons led into the final term but quickly lost the lead before regrouping with the last three goals of the match to win by 8 points.

THE TEAMS 

CARLTON

B: Lachie Plowman, Sam Rowe, Dale Thomas
HB: Cameron O'Shea, Liam Jones, Kade Simpson
? Lochie O'Brien, Marc Murphy, Sam Kerridge
HF: Jarrod Garlett, Pat Kerr, Darcy Lang
F: Sam Petrevski-Seton, Harry McKay, Paddy Dow
Foll: Matthew Kreuzer, Patrick Cripps, Zac Fisher
I/C: Nick Graham, Jed Lamb, Aaron Mullett, Matthew Wright
Emg: Matt Shaw, Jack Silvagni, Jacob Weitering

In: Pat Kerr, Marc Murphy

Out: Charlie Curnow (quad), Ed Curnow (suspended)

MELBOURNE 

B: Michael Hibberd, Oscar McDonald, Neville Jetta
HB: Angus Brayshaw, Jake Lever, Mitch Hannan
? Jordan Lewis, Nathan Jones, Christian Salem
HF: Clayton Oliver, Jesse Hogan, Jake Melksham
F: James Harmes, Tom McDonald, Christian Petracca
Foll: Max Gawn, Bernie Vince, Jack Viney
I/C (from): Bayley Fritsch, Alex Neal-Bullen, Tim Smith, Charlie Spargo, 
Emg: Jeff Garlett, Jayden Hunt, Cameron Pedersen, Dom Tyson

In: Tim Smith, Jack Viney

Out: Dom Tyson (omitted), Sam Weideman (calf)

WHAT’S MY NUMBER? by Sam the Stats Man

The club is tracking towards a finals appearance and the numbers confirm this to be the case. One statistic that stands out in comparison with last year is that (touch wood) to date, the Demons have not been hit as hard by injuries to key and depth players as they were last season.

1. Jesse Hogan MFC games 8, goals 20. Has shrugged of the blues of last year coming back better than ever with his strength, endurance and sublime presence around the ground and up forward.

2. Nathan Jones MFC games 8, goals 4. Still leading from the front with his hardness in the middle of the ground.

3. Christian Salem MFC games 7, goals 2. Coming on nicely both as defender with stints in the midfield. Precision kicking is a great asset.

4. James Harmes MFC games 8, goals 2. The change of number seems to have suited him. He’s one of the club’s big improvers and is spending more and more time in the midfield.

5. Christian Petracca MFC games 7, goals 5. Playing some significant football as he continues to develop although his progress was hampered recently when his dog almost bit his finger off.

6. Jordan Lewis MFC games 7, goals 1. Continues to provide inspiration and leadership and sets up many damaging plays from the defensive half of the ground.

7. Jack Viney CD games 1, goals 0. The co-captain should be back this week after foot issues have kept him out since Round 21 last season.

8. Jake Lever MFC games 8, goals 0. It took him a while to settle in, but the former Crow is just starting to show his class and skill in defence.

9. Charlie Spargo MFC games 3, goals 5, CD games 2, goals 4. The pocket-sized dynamo has been a revelation with his hard work and maturity. Dangerous around goals.

10. Angus Brayshaw MFC games 5, goals 2, CD games 1, goals 1. Brayshaw is proving he’s over his concussion issues of recent years and is now on track to show why he was so highly regarded in his draft year.

11. Max Gawn MFC games 8, goals 5. Back to his All Australian best.

12. Dom Tyson MFC games 6, goals 1. Remains important when up and running but needs to improve on his execution at times.

13. Clayton Oliver MFC games 8, goals 4. Last year’s club champion has continued where he left off and is rapidly becoming one of the competition’s best midfielders.

14. Michael Hibberd MFC games 8, goals 1. After a slow start, the All-Australian defender has outlined his importance to the Demons’ defence.

15. Billy Stretch MFC games 1, goals 0, CD games 4, goals 2. Down on form and confidence but played very well in his last outing at Casey.

16. Dean Kent MFC games 3, goals 6. Started off strongly but another hamstring injury has put him back on the sidelines.

17. Sam Frost MFC games 2, goals 0, CD games 2, goals 0. A very handy tall defender to have as depth at the club.

18. Jake Melksham MFC games 8, goals 7. Has become an important player after reinventing himself as a medium forward with a damaging long kick.

19. Mitch Hannan MFC games 4, goals 7, CD games 2, goals 4. Had to work hard to reclaim his spot in the side after a quiet start. Good in recent weeks.

20. Corey Maynard ® MFC games 1, goals 0, CD games 3, goals 2. The hard-nosed midfielder had a torrid time in his only AFL appearance in Round 1 and, after a few games at Casey, will be out for a while with a hip injury.

21. Cameron Pedersen MFC games 2, goals 2, CD games 5, goals 10. The work horse who has been used as a fill in ruckman/forward has a few others ahead of him at AFL level but remains a handy back up.

22. Aaron Vandenberg. Still awaiting his return from the heel and ankle injuries that have kept him out for almost two years.

23. Bernie Vince MFC games 8, goals 1. Played every game, can tag and at times goes forward. He remains one of the important cogs in the team wheel.

24. Jay Kennedy Harris CD games 5, goals 4. Battling hard at Casey but looks a fair way off senior selection.

25. Tom McDonald MFC games 3, goals 9. Came straight back in after injury and has added strength and goal scoring potency in the forward line with a great 5 goal performance in his last start.

26. Sam Weideman MFC games 4, goals 2, CD games 2, goals 6. The selectors are showing faith in the youngster ahead of veteran Pedersen. It’s a decision that could well reap dividends in the medium to long term.    

27. Harley Balic CD games 3, goals 8. Had a sensational start in his first game with Casey but an injury held him back. Was solid on return last Sunday.

28. Oscar McDonald MFC games 8, goals 0. A great improver who has beaten most opponents so far this year.

29. Jayden Hunt MFC games 5, goals 0, CD games 3, goals 1. Has lost a bit of his edge and is not enjoying a good season. Dropped to Casey twice to regain some form.

30. Alex Neal-Bullen MFC games 8, goals 7.  Hard working small man who runs all day.

31. Bayley Fritsch MFC games 7, goals 7. Has played all bar one game when rested. The colt from Coldstream has exceeded all expectations as a medium sized forward with some time in the midfield.

32. Tomas Bugg MFC games 3, goals 4, CD games 3, goals 5. Working hard to revive his career after last year’s brain fade against the Swans but so far had only one good game and then struggled to hold his place with Melbourne.

33. Harrison Petty CD games 5, goals 0. This promising young key defender is highly thought of at the club and is learning the ropes at Casey.

34. Mitch King CD games 3, goals 1. Was just beginning to show some good form in the ruck with the Casey Demons when struck by an elbow injury that has set him back a month. 

35. Oskar Baker CD games 5, goals 4. The cheeky red-headed speedster has impressed at Casey.

36. Jeff Garlett MFC games 5, goals 9, 1, CD games 2 goals 1. Been more cold than hot which has landed him in the VFL this year.

37. Dion Johnstone CD games 5, goals 1. Speedy forward who lays a mean tackle but hasn’t done enough in almost 1½ years in the VFL.

38. Tim Smith ® CD games 4 goals 6. His form at Casey has been outstanding but who can he replace at AFL level.

39. Neville Jetta MFC games 8, goals 0. Continues to be the team glue in defence. He might be small but he’s also strong, hard and important.

40. Patrick McKenna. Yet to play a game due to a hamstring injury after being recruited from the Giants at the end of 2016.

42. Josh Wagner MFC games 5, goals 0, CD games 1, goals 0. Held his place for a while but sent to Casey a couple of weeks ago.

 44. Joel Smith CD games 4, goals 1. Spring-heeled and athletic but faces a tough battle to break into the MFC defence.

45. Declan Keilty ® CD games 5, goals 0. A solid contributor down back at Casey but his problem is that he’s almost at the back of the queue of a deep list of tall defenders.

47. Lachlan Filipovic ® CD games 5, goals 1 Project ruckman being nursed through his games at Casey while he hones his big man skills.

[titan_uranus 22,210]

I feel far less comfortable about this game than any of the previous three. We just seem to struggle against Carlton.

I expect a win, and a solid one at that, but if Cripps, Curnow x 2 and McKay play well, it might not be easy.

[Wiseblood 24,636]

6 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

I feel far less comfortable about this game than any of the previous three. We just seem to struggle against Carlton.

I expect a win, and a solid one at that, but if Cripps, Curnow x 2 and McKay play well, it might not be easy.

We do struggle against Carlton, but so many areas of our game are clicking now that they don't worry me.  We can handle their midfield without too much hassle, our forwards are working superbly and our back line is in sync and can handle a player like McKay without too many issues.

We should win, and win quite easily.

[Young Blood 1,971]

I've watched Carlton really take it to decent teams this year. The key will be maintaining our pressure around the contest. It's where young teams like Gold Coast last week struggle to stay in the game because of turnovers and lack of composure/experience.

Still Curnow brothers are now playing. Add Weitering, Murphy and Marchbank.

This is a danger game. We might be top four for winning quarters but as we've seen one quarter blitz and we don't cope well. Hopefully we do this week.

[Wiseblood 24,636]

Just now, mongrel said:

I've watched Carlton really take it to decent teams this year. The key will be maintaining our pressure around the contest. It's where young teams like Gold Coast last week struggle to stay in the game because of turnovers and lack of composure/experience.

Still Curnow brothers are now playing. Add Weitering, Murphy and Marchbank.

This is a danger game. We might be top four for winning quarters but as we've seen one quarter blitz and we don't cope well. Hopefully we do this week.

Weitering has been awful this year, Murphy is decent and the same goes for Marchbank.

No doubt they'll have a dip, but with the addition of Viney into our side I see us being far too strong for them all over the park.

[Young Blood 1,971]

1 minute ago, Wiseblood said:

Weitering has been awful this year, Murphy is decent and the same goes for Marchbank.

No doubt they'll have a dip, but with the addition of Viney into our side I see us being far too strong for them all over the park.

Weitering has been building form in the VFL. We know what he can do when in form. Marchbank really underated and Murphy can still bob up and be a match winner. I hope you're right. Forgive my pessimism. Been a long time since I saw us win four in a row. Also we haven't hit our straps at the G yet.

[Ethan Tremblay 28,281]

3 minutes ago, mongrel said:

I've watched Carlton really take it to decent teams this year. The key will be maintaining our pressure around the contest.

I believe their worst loss at the ‘G this season is 26 points and they’ve played the two top teams. 

[Wiseblood 24,636]

1 minute ago, mongrel said:

Weitering has been building form in the VFL. We know what he can do when in form. Marchbank really underated and Murphy can still bob up and be a match winner. I hope you're right. Forgive my pessimism. Been a long time since I saw us win four in a row. Also we haven't hit our straps at the G yet.

No need to apologise - I normally approach these games with some form of pessimism, especially when taking on a team like Carlton who have troubled us a little over the last few years.

But at the moment I feel confident that the side as a whole is clicking really well and that we can have them covered all over the ground.  The Blues have been competitive, and probably played a little better than their ladder position suggests, but we are far and away a better side at present and we should prove that at the 'G on Sunday.

[Chook 14,388]

52 minutes ago, Demonland said:

BREAKING THROUGH by JVM

Carlton’s breakthrough win last Saturday breathed new life into a club that’s been struggling for quite a while but their down time has been nowhere near as long as that of Melbourne and even of late, they have caused the Demons plenty of headaches.

In Round 21 2015, they were rank outsiders but stormed to an eight goal half time lead on the way to a 23-point win. Twelve months later, they led all day to dash the Dees’ faint hopes of a finals berth and won by 20 points. In their first meeting early last year, the dogged Blues led into the final quarter in a bitter game that saw the costly loss for some weeks of two Demon players through suspension and later in the year, their encounter was tense and close until the final siren saw Melbourne win by just 8 points after a goal on the siren. A finals aspirant would, in the normal course, be expected a combined winning margin in two games against the team that finishes 16^th of more than 30 points (not to mention that it should not lose twice to the team that finishes 15^th). 

 

I think it's a good sign that can't call to mind those two games.

Edited May 15, 2018 by Chook

[Redleg 37,448]

Carlton will go the man and will try and intimidate us. I hope we don’t get sucked in and have players reported. 

[Red and Bluebeard 2,025]

16 hours ago, beelzebub said:

 

BB, I can't escape the image of a massive brawl before the opening bounce, with one of the umpires copping a stray kick in the nuts from one of the Curnows, and the tribunal later ruling that as it was careless and not intentional, there is no penalty at all ....

Edited May 16, 2018 by george_on_the_outer

[beelzebub 22,225]

7 minutes ago, Red and Bluebeard said:

BB, I can't escape the image of a massive brawl before the opening bounce, with one of the umpires copping a stray kick in the nuts from one of the Curnows, and the tribunal later ruling that as it was careless and not intentional, there is no penalty at all ....

Good youll not see me decking a couple of Blues

[Red and Bluebeard 2,025]

4 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Good youll not see me decking a couple of Blues

Jack Viney might beat you to it ?

[Deeoldfart 7,709]

Over the last few weeks things have really started to gel, back, front and in the middle.  The team is stable but individual roles are flexible.  We have plenty of key players in form, with Casey players snapping at the heels to keep the seniors honest.  We have matured as a group since the early part of the season.  When were we last in this position 1/3 of the way through a season?  Bloody long time ago, that's for sure!  I can't see us being beaten on the weekend, no matter who Carlton have coming back, who lucked-out at the tribunal and how much trouble they have given in us recent years.  Six and three looks a cert to me.

Edited May 15, 2018 by Deeoldfart
word choice

[WERRIDEE 5,198]

If we are going to be a good team we should beat this mob by 5 goals plus no excuses a loss would be disastrous.

Carlton are the toughest opponent we have had in a month but we should account for them quite comfortably.

POSSIBLE TEAM LINE UP

B: J.LEWIS, O.MCDONALD, JETTA

HB: HIBBERD, LEVER, SALEM

C : HARMES, OLIVER, JONES

HF: PETRACCA, HOGAN, FRITSCH

F: MELKSHAM, T.MCDONALD, WEIDEMAN

FOLL: GAWN, BRAYSHAW, VINEY

IC: TYSON, SPARGO, HANNAN, NEAL-BULLEN 

EMERG: VINCE

GREAT TO SEE VINEY BACK IT WILL BE A HUGE BOOST FOR THE TEAM.

[brendan 3,380]

Is it too much to ask to have a 100 point win, should have been last week but on the MCG Would be nice 

[What 18,810]

If this game was at Etihad it would be a guaranteed 60+ point win for us.

On the MCG, who knows?

[Demon trucker 1,723]

Last year we where the underdog when we played them the second time, Oliver single handly beat Murphy, Gibbs and Cripps, this time we are at full strength should mean we win by 10 goals, but it does not work like that. It's a good thing they won last week they will be a little bit satisfied, I hope our first qt is like our last qt against the suns.

Dees by 1 point or 35.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

This week the two teams will be playing for the Johnson-Garlett Pennant.

 

[BigFez 1,388]

From memory the second game last year Max was struggling for form on the back of his hamstring injury and Kruezer really got hold of him.

We are a much better side that the one they played last year, so we really should win this one.  Being a Melbourne supporter though, I will still be nervous and view this as a danger game.  They will think they can win this one and will bring intensity and aggression to the contest.  And we aren't exactly killing it at the MCG right now.  Once again I'm tipping dees 1-39.

[Demon3 2,541]

Carlton are better than 1-7 and have some genuine matchwinners and i feel they match up very well on us. if we are off in the center and contested footy, they will hurt us, We wont get 83 Inside 50s this week.

[beelzebub 22,225]

1 minute ago, Demon3 said:

Carlton are better than 1-7 and have some genuine matchwinners and i feel they match up very well on us. if we are off in the center and contested footy, they will hurt us, We wont get 83 Inside 50s this week.

No we wont. Kruezer will keep Max accountable and honest.

We SHOULD be too good. A test for us again. Just do it.

[Demon3 2,541]

1 minute ago, beelzebub said:

No we wont. Kruezer will keep Max accountable and honest.

We SHOULD be too good. A test for us again. Just do it.

Yes spot on.. the match ups and like for likes are what worries me in this game. Kruezer can and has gone toe to toe with Max and had a win. Cripps can do what Oliver does for Us. Murphy back in is what Jones with a bit more polish is for us. Charlie Curnow is as good on the ground as he is in the air and will give Oscar serious worries (A\lthough Oscar is in good Form)   They have pace and can spread on teh big ground of teh G.

 

Its going to be interesting and while i think we are better it wont be easy at all and while i always just want to win, the past 3 game sof 30+ point victories have been appropriate, i will just take 4 points this week.

[Damo 2,969]

Must say the $5.30 for Carlton looks tempting. Especially into a low scoring game (under 170 points) which suits the Blues way to win. $8.75. Not that Id bet against Melbourne winning 4 in a row.

[DEE fence 4,414]

I am going and i want to see a cricket score win. I really hate the Blues, equal to Essendon for loathing. We are better everywhere. 39+ win. Tmac Hogan and Weid cant see them being covered.