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Is premiership coach Simon Goodwin the right guy....


Dees2014

Is Goodwin the right guy?  

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7 minutes ago, Rusty Nails said:

If that data is 18 rounds worth of data we are still a fair way behind here EO.  That differential carries some significant weight given 18 rounds was an entire season in 2020.

If we don't fix the conversion rate vs number of entries and it remains similar coming in to finals i am also of the view we'll be out in straight sets.  Could be just one game IF we don't get our act together up forward and out of the middle starting this week and we miss top four.

Let's hope we get to see the rest of our matches played in dry conditions so we can at least test out the Macca/BB combo and our connection capability coming inside 50 over the next four rounds prior to finals.  Which are usually also conducted in better playing conditions.

Again I could be way of the mark with my interpretation - but for us to improve the conversion %, it's merely swapping 2 goals, instead of 2 points - and that would then take us back up to the 24-25% mark per game. So it's merely two kicks that are inaccurate that is the issue?

So not a fair way behind?? 

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4 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

The first points a good one Jnr, I can’t recall the offensive stats but I know we were on ‘record pace’ from a defensive I50 conversion perspective up to rd 11.

I fall into the camp that during winter (and we’re still there) that scores cross the entire competition drop, partially due to decreasing shot on goal, but more about the accuracy not being there. It picks up again in the warmer months. There is also statistical evidence of that (I’ve posted it before, but I’m on my phone so won’t do it now) 

The method hasn’t changed, so it’s not worse in of itself, it will only improve in the next few weeks as environmental conditions change. 
 

I genuinely feel, there is a mismatch between some supporters view points that  ‘teams are working us out’ vs other factors that drive inaccuracy, that is never spoken about publicly  

Since the bye (5 games) Fritsch has kicked 9, McDonald 6, Brown 3, Pickett 8, Jackson 2

Its a poor return from our fwds.

I'm not averse to giving Weid a shot and resting Jackson this week.

And make a plan that:

  • Doesn't involve May kicking to the left edge of the square every kickout
  • Plays on at all costs
  • Gets the ball to the top of the square
  • gives Max more time off the ball
  • Protects the outside of the contest like we did in the first 8 to 10 rounds

 

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21 minutes ago, Engorged Onion said:

Again I could be way of the mark with my interpretation - but for us to improve the conversion %, it's merely swapping 2 goals, instead of 2 points - and that would then take us back up to the 24-25% mark per game. So it's merely two kicks that are inaccurate that is the issue?

So not a fair way behind?? 

If it's 18/19 rounds then we are talking percentage differences that have been  gained over a long period EO.  While it may not seem alot to make up in isolation,  the other teams you have listed above us have shown they are doing better in this aspect and have proven they are consistently doing so over many many weeks.  Conversely we have proven we are not able to over many many weeks.

It can be done but the weight of this data would suggest it is highly unlikely we will be able to do so (consistently enough) in order to make up the difference and post a winning score.  Can we reduce their conversion and make up the difference that way?  Given we have one of the best defensive set ups going around sure.  But i personally feel that method is too risky and expecting too much from the defenders.  It also under values the capability of the opponents offensive capabilities.  The better teams /forwards will score at some point and we need to be able to match / better them wherever possible.

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The solution to the question posed in the thread title is patently clear.  

Goodwin is the answer while we're on top of the ladder.  As soon as we lose a game, he's apparently not the answer.

It's also worth considering that these past few weeks have all been part of a cunning plan to lull our finals' opponents into a true sense of security.

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7 minutes ago, Demonstone said:

The solution to the question posed in the thread title is patently clear.  

Goodwin is the answer while we're on top of the ladder.  As soon as we lose a game, he's apparently not the answer.

It's also worth considering that these past few weeks have all been part of a cunning plan to lull our finals' opponents into a true sense of security.

Just lucky start. He is not a premiership coach.

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2 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Since the bye (5 games) Fritsch has kicked 9, McDonald 6, Brown 3, Pickett 8, Jackson 2

Its a poor return from our fwds.

I'm not averse to giving Weid a shot and resting Jackson this week.

And make a plan that:

  • Doesn't involve May kicking to the left edge of the square every kickout
  • Plays on at all costs
  • Gets the ball to the top of the square
  • gives Max more time off the ball
  • Protects the outside of the contest like we did in the first 8 to 10 rounds

 

There's no way we will, or should, start playing on at all costs. It's not how we've trained or played for the entire season, now is not the time to change something that fundamentally.

We can, though, be a little bolder with our ball movement at times. What we need to work on is knowing when in a game to take it on and play on, and when not to, because we don't always get it right.

The May kick-outs thing is hugely overrated on here. We're not conceding scores from our own kick-ins anywhere near as much as we're conceding them from forward half turnovers, which is our much, much bigger problem.

We get the ball to the top of the square enough, but the issue is, a bit like the playing on issue, knowing when to go there vs when to look shorter - again, I feel like too often we go there when we shouldn't (players like Gawn, Viney and Harmes kick it there without looking).

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On 7/25/2021 at 1:49 PM, 3183 Dee said:

Saying that he can’t coach is clearly ridiculous - we have been on top of the ladder for the majority of the season. It’s also about building a list for the next 10 years or so - every year, we will iron out problems and improve - mostly through experience.

HOWEVER! We definitely have a problem with our forward line - I imagine that, pre-season, the coaches were excited about a Brown-Weideman combination to spearhead the team. Obviously, this has not happened and the resurgence of TMac has been quite lucky for us. We cannot win games on our defence alone - add a more potent forward line and we will be a VERY good team. It will probably improve the output of our mids, if they at least have reliable targets and leading patterns to kick to.

The losses this year have been the most disappointing and, again, I’d argue that a better, more accurate forward line would have seen us pick those games up. The problem is that losing those games has now put us in a position where it’s difficult to now rest players, as we have to try and ensure a Top 4 finish.

 

Good post. I think we'll be a better side again next year, only problem is it's very unlikely we'll have an injury free run like 2021. We need to take the chance this year and I think we're good enough, as is the system. 

Questions over the coaching is mind boggling to me, as is the faux tough talk like 'so you're happy with 50 years of mediocrity'. What and you're going to change that by ranting on a football forum? Righto, superstar.

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On 7/25/2021 at 1:11 PM, picket fence said:

Is it hysterical that we have lost to

Adelaide

GWS

Collingwood 

Draw vs Hawks ?

Really good sides crush lower sides and kick big scores. We do the exact opposite and lose. Very very worrying and problematic at the pionty end of the year. I can see us easily missing out on a top 4 chance and going out in straight sets

That can equally be the definition of downhill skiing, front runners. I'd much prefer my team to win every week, but performing just about every week against the best opposition is far more important IMV.

Would we like to put teams away earlier? Sure. But the fact our system can hold off teams after we get a but of a break on them speaks.volumes about the system and the way it's been coached.

Are we talking about the coach here or just ranting away?

 

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23 hours ago, Skuit said:

Such glorious fodder. Keep posting here please peoples. Can't wait for the post-flag forensics. Expect a public dossier. 

All the positive posters in the one place, hey? Most of them unsighted for the majority of the year.

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18 minutes ago, A F said:

Good post. I think we'll be a better side again next year, only problem is it's very unlikely we'll have an injury free run like 2021. We need to take the chance this year and I think we're good enough, as is the system. 

Questions over the coaching is mind boggling to me, as is the faux tough talk like 'so you're happy with 50 years of mediocrity'. What and you're going to change that by ranting on a football forum? Righto, superstar.

What they don’t seem to understand is a lot of work has been put into countering our defensive structure, because we’re so difficult to beat, we’re 19 rounds in and been in every game. Although I’m not shying away from the drop off in the last 5 to 6 weeks.

To think the FD won’t be putting any work into how we counter opposition tactics and how we improve on Saturday should we meet the Dogs again is ludicrous.

Let them rant, you won’t change them the same posters who’ve come back to pot Goodwin were lauding Yze and Choco for the improvement, but again with the drop off it’s all Goodwin again. This is despite the issues with dominating the hit outs and not translating it to clearance dominance, which you would think lies heavily with Yze. I don’t really buy into all that as Yze came from a system where they didn’t worry to much about the clearances and focussed more on winning the ball back and countering from their defensive half.

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7 minutes ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Goodys not worried. 
Belief intact. 
 

Not sure Goody has reviewed the last two games.  Lots of work to do imv !!!

Absolutely dumb comment, they review everything . Clearly never been involved in any FD of any kind

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5 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Absolutely dumb comment, they review everything . Clearly never been involved in any FD of any kind

I don't know what worse, people assuming reviews aren't done, or those same people anticipating immediate change when reviews are done.

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6 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Absolutely dumb comment, they review everything . Clearly never been involved in any FD of any kind

I’ll add the funny emoji for your benefit next time.  ? Of course they review it over and over again.  Our metro club coach in the 90s at Caulfield Bears Fc had a mate with a video camera and we’d watch edited bits on a Monday night sometimes after a bad loss. 
 I’d be worried with our lack of ability to score and connection forward of centre. Lots of players looking tired and need to be rotated. Skills starting to drop again in efficiency.  I still have belief

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11 hours ago, Stiff Arm said:

I read that with a Trump accent and it made perfect sense. 

“Make Melbourne great again”. 

4 hours ago, Ugottobekidding said:

Just lucky start. He is not a premiership coach.

Clearly he is not a premiership coach - that is indisputable. None since Norm Smith has been at Melbourne. Until he is, he isn’t.
Hope by the end of September 2021 we can say he is. 

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6 hours ago, Engorged Onion said:

Again I could be way of the mark with my interpretation - but for us to improve the conversion %, it's merely swapping 2 goals, instead of 2 points - and that would then take us back up to the 24-25% mark per game. So it's merely two kicks that are inaccurate that is the issue?

So not a fair way behind?? 

This is all fair and reasonable analysis but i wouldn't underestimate the benefit of a 2-3% improvement over the course of a season for goals v inside 50s. 

In this case it would translate to an extra goal a game. An extra goal a game would have had us make the finals last year. An extra goal a game would have had us finish 2nd in 2018. And this year it would have given us an extra 6 points and potentially sewn up a top 2 finish by now. 

It doesnt sound like a lot but its what separates the top 4 teams from just finalists very often.  

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2 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

I’ll add the funny emoji for your benefit next time.  ? Of course they review it over and over again.  Our metro club coach in the 90s at Caulfield Bears Fc had a mate with a video camera and we’d watch edited bits on a Monday night sometimes after a bad loss. 
 I’d be worried with our lack of ability to score and connection forward of centre. Lots of players looking tired and need to be rotated. Skills starting to drop again in efficiency.  I still have belief

Just don’t make the. Dumb comment is my advice 

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14 hours ago, jnrmac said:

I'm not averse to giving Weid a shot and resting Jackson this week.

And make a plan that:

  • Doesn't involve May kicking to the left edge of the square every kickout
  • Plays on at all costs
  • Gets the ball to the top of the square
  • gives Max more time off the ball
  • Protects the outside of the contest like we did in the first 8 to 10 rounds

 

I don't think we can do both at the same time.

Weid is ok to pinch hit in the ruck but if we are to give Max more time off the ball then we need a ruck, Jackson to take the slack.

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12 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Absolutely dumb comment, they review everything . Clearly never been involved in any FD of any kind

Preliminary Final 2018: "I don't need to review that, I have seen it once" Simon Goodwin

Nice one :goody:

 

 

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3 hours ago, rjay said:

I don't think we can do both at the same time.

Weid is ok to pinch hit in the ruck but if we are to give Max more time off the ball then we need a ruck, Jackson to take the slack.

The way Jackson's form has tailed off in recent weeks Weid could hardly be any worse... 

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15 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Preliminary Final 2018: "I don't need to review that, I have seen it once" Simon Goodwin

Nice one :goody:

 

 

You believe that it’s your choice, what he actually clarified later was they didn’t do the full in depth game review with coding and going through it coach by coach and de brief the players.

Keep trying 

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5 hours ago, Pennant St Dee said:

You believe that it’s your choice, what he actually clarified later was they didn’t do the full in depth game review with coding and going through it coach by coach and de brief the players.

Keep trying 

That's not what two players have told me when I specifically asked them but carry on...

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