Hawks on Sunday - Predictions

[Bluey's Dad 3,419]

1 hour ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

We should have picked Wines. 

 

[loges 6,767]

If my memory is correct the last time Gawn played against Mcevoy he gave him a hiding and vied with Viney for best on ground 2016

[loges 6,767]

Just on a side note we have scored Razor Ray as one of the umpires Saturday

[deebug 1,754]

2 minutes ago, loges said:

Just on a side note we have scored Razor Ray as one of the umpires Saturday

Great

[Jaded No More 68,966]

9 minutes ago, loges said:

Just on a side note we have scored Razor Ray as one of the umpires Saturday

Is #26 there again? ?

[binman 43,131]

32 minutes ago, DubDee said:

interesting comments, seems most are confident.  I see it as 50-50. i think the odds are more based on hype in the media. 

If  your assessment of a 50-50 is correct  then hawks at 2.20 is brilliant value.

However the market suggests your assessment is not correct, hence why we are 1.70.

The pools for footy betting are way too big to be overly influenced by hype in the media. Hype in the media might influence tipping but the odds are initially set by bookies who'se key expertise in this regard is getting the odds right. Punters then respond to that assessment and shape the ensuing odds by betting their hard earned money. Not much room for media hype to be a big factor (or sentiment fir that matter).

 

[loges 6,767]

13 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Is #26 there again? ?

Apparently so , they have a few umpires injured so he still gets a game, it was the first thing I asked.

[DubDee 25,915]

3 minutes ago, binman said:

If  your assessment of a 50-50 is correct  then hawks at 2.20 is brilliant value.

However the market suggests your assessment is not correct, hence why we are 1.70.

The pools for footy betting are way too big to be overly influenced by hype in the media. Hype in the media might influence tipping but the odds are initially set by bookies who'se key expertise in this regard is getting the odds right. Punters then respond to that assessment and shape the ensuing odds by betting their hard earned money. Not much room for media hype to be a big factor (or sentiment fir that matter).

 

yeah and bookies never get it wrong huh?   (retorical)

firstly 50-50 is my prediction (opinion) on a game yet to occur so it cannot be incorrect.  Secondly, Odds are full of BS. one eyed supporters betting on their team influences odds and media certainly would influence them. How else would the Dees be favourite the beat Geelong in round 1?  2nd vs 9th from the previous year

[jnrmac 20,104]

1 hour ago, loges said:

Question: last time they beat us by less than a goal , where both Gawn & Hogan not playing?

And Viney had a blinder

[BigFez 1,462]

4 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

And Viney had a blinder

For those who are interested.  Last time we met.

[pineapple dee 2,892]

43 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Is #26 there again? ?

I went to a game at Glenferrie Oval, so many years ago. There was a # 26 there that day. He kicked 8 to half time then Biffin and Bourke fell on him. I will never forget that day or that # 26 ever. 

If we get # 26 again on Sunday perhaps Hogan can fall on him. That ought to do it.

[DubDee 25,915]

no hodge, gibson, burgoyne, Burchill from that team is a big difference

[Sir Why You Little 37,051]

2 minutes ago, DubDee said:

no hodge, gibson, burgoyne, Burchill from that team is a big difference

That’s a lot of finals experience gone right there. 

We can beat Whorethorn, it’s how well the Coaches prepare and the leaders do their stuff. 

So often Whorethorn just obliterate teams early, the MFC have to dictate most of the game

[Engorged Onion 10,223]

1 hour ago, loges said:

Just on a side note we have scored Razor Ray as one of the umpires Saturday

whilst people are potting umpires... does anyone actually RATE any of the umpiring fraternity, and if so who and why?

[Willmoy1947 4,099]

Lewis is still here though.............

[chook fowler 19,459]

Our biggest problem remains between the ears - concentration, application and decision making. This is what cost us finals last year. It remains to be seen if we have improved - the results over the next 3 games will be telling.

[binman 43,131]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

yeah and bookies never get it wrong huh?   (retorical)

firstly 50-50 is my prediction (opinion) on a game yet to occur so it cannot be incorrect.  Secondly, Odds are full of BS. one eyed supporters betting on their team influences odds and media certainly would influence them. How else would the Dees be favourite the beat Geelong in round 1?  2nd vs 9th from the previous year

Of couse bookies get it wrong. Though they make their profits by being less wrong than the mug punters.

i didnt say your prediction waa incorrect. i said the market suggests it isnt. The art of punting - and rhw only way to makw money ovee time - is accurately assessing  the odds of something happening and if the market has that event at longer odds taking those odds. So, as a punter, if i thought a game was 50-50 but could get 2.20 foe on the teams i would take that bet.

Odds are most certainly not bs in terms of being accurate predictors od the results of football games. And as i said rhe pools so big that the impact  factors such as media hype or one eyed supporters is negligible.

Do you really think the dees started fav against geelong because of one eyed supporters? 

The bookies actually opened us at 2.20 just prior to our second jlt game. We played well, geelong not so well and the market tightened. But we only became favourite when it was announced danger would't play. We started at 1.85, so only very slight favourites. And we missed a goal from 20 metres dead in front after only xonceding 17 points in rhe secind half and dominating the last. I think the odds were pretty accurate.

[Dr. Gonzo 24,235]

3 hours ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Explain your logic.

It really doesn't make sense.

Which part? I think its a coin toss Game but have a feeling we might get done by the Hawks. I think we match up well against Richmond and we have a tendency to get up for big games so I think we might win that one.

[Sir Why You Little 37,051]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Which part? I think its a coin toss Game but have a feeling we might get done by the Hawks. I think we match up well against Richmond and we have a tendency to get up for big games so I think we might win that one.

Saturdays game against Whorethorn is just as big for us as the Anzac day game

[What 18,810]

Shaun Burgoyne is definitely out,   listed 2 weeks on the Hawks injury report.

Will be nice to not have to worry about him.

[DeezNuts 624]

If Frost can ‘accidentally’ take Mitchell’s head off with a stumbling, collapsing hip ‘n’ shoulder, we might go alright?

Hawks by 5 goals for mine......

[Deemania since 56 6,658]

15 minutes ago, DeezNuts said:

If Frost can ‘accidentally’ take Mitchell’s head off with a stumbling, collapsing hip ‘n’ shoulder, we might go alright?

Hawks by 5 goals for mine......

Even though I like the executable element of this scenario, I feel sorry for Mitchell  ... please believe me ... just a little ... OK then, don't.

Frosty is the Man! Just hope that his 'accidental' fall a la hip & shoulder doesn't hurt him. 

[KingDingAling 3,758]

I think we will win by over 40 points. Hawthorn are still on the slide IMO. We are a side on the up, who hasn't played up to our potential this year. I think it clicks on Sunday and we win rather easily. Gawn negates McKovey in the ruck, Oliver gets first use, and Hogan kicks a bag.

[praha 11,240]

37 minutes ago, DeezNuts said:

If Frost can ‘accidentally’ take Mitchell’s head off with a stumbling, collapsing hip ‘n’ shoulder, we might go alright?

Hawks by 5 goals for mine......

Mitchell's influence on a match imo is minimal. I don't see him as much of a playmaker. When Hawthorn win, it's because they're rebounding out of defense and their forwards are delivering. No Burgoyne is a huge out for them, and if our forwards can pressure and negate opposition rebounding as they have in the last 2 rounds, Mitchel could end up with 50 touches and we'll still win by 40 points.

[DeezNuts 624]

16 minutes ago, praha said:

Mitchell's influence on a match imo is minimal. I don't see him as much of a playmaker. When Hawthorn win, it's because they're rebounding out of defense and their forwards are delivering. No Burgoyne is a huge out for them, and if our forwards can pressure and negate opposition rebounding as they have in the last 2 rounds, Mitchel could end up with 50 touches and we'll still win by 40 points.

I like your optimism, but I understand Razor Ray is umpiring...