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Looking ahead ... the Path to September


Diamond_Jim
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2 minutes ago, Pates said:

I remembered saying prior to the Brisbane game, a comfortable/big win just about cements our spot in the finals, while a tight win leaves the door ajar. 

I'm as angry about how we took the foot off last week as I am about today's loss. We switch off/fail to switch on so easily. 

We win by 30+ points last week (for crying out loud North SMASHED the Lions this week) and we force WC to play catch up to us. 

If we miss finals we only have ourselves to blame, and if it happens I don't want to hear the boys are gutted, I want to hear they pi55ed off!!!! 

Opposition Clubs know our jumper is soft

We can only play high pressure footy in short bursts

i knew the Filth would win this morning, it's exactly why Nought have raped us for 11 years

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West Coast aren't beating Adelaide. They are as soft and as likely to drop clutch games as we are. Even with the outs, Crows are too good for them.

I know falling over the line in a last team standing battle isn't how we all dreamed of it happening during the week, but if that's how it happens, I for one will take it over missing out.

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21 minutes ago, Nasher said:

West Coast aren't beating Adelaide. They are as soft and as likely to drop clutch games as we are. Even with the outs, Crows are too good for them.

I know falling over the line in a last team standing battle isn't how we all dreamed of it happening during the week, but if that's how it happens, I for one will take it over missing out.

I'd love to have your confidence, I really would. 

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10 minutes ago, Pates said:

I'd love to have your confidence, I really would. 

Probably trying to convince myself just as much as anything. Saves me from having my day ruined by stressing about it tomorrow. I'd rather be confident and wrong than packing it waiting for the impending doom. Weekends are far too short for this s***.

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1 hour ago, Jack son 5 said:

I take it there's another decimal with %.

What happens if two teams finish with same wins and %. 

Ian sure Gil will dream up a solution on the run - maybe when asked a question about it on radio?

And IF the teams were EssInject and another, he would no doubt give them the nod "because they have been so hardly done by, and all footy fans are sure to welcome them back"!  ?

1 hour ago, Pates said:

I remembered saying prior to the Brisbane game, a comfortable/big win just about cements our spot in the finals, while a tight win leaves the door ajar. 

I'm as angry about how we took the foot off last week as I am about today's loss. We switch off/fail to switch on so easily. 

We win by 30+ points last week (for crying out loud North SMASHED the Lions this week) and we force WC to play catch up to us. 

If we miss finals we only have ourselves to blame, and if it happens I don't want to hear the boys are gutted, I want to hear they pi55ed off!!!! 

They won't be even one percent more pi55ed off than most long suffering supporters ?

Edited by monoccular
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32 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Let's say the Crows do win, what would the Saints have to beat the Tigers by?

Saints aren't an issue. Assuming tigers score around 70 points, saints need to win by 120 (192-70 to be exact). Not happening. West coast is the only threat. 

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21 minutes ago, Stinger said:

Saints aren't an issue. Assuming tigers score around 70 points, saints need to win by 120 (192-70 to be exact). Not happening. West coast is the only threat. 

Technically so is Essendon, but I'm resigned to the fact that Fremantle will get absolutely smashed tomorrow. After all, most teams with finals on the line put away the teams they should.

We're just unique at throwing away our chance at playing finals.

Edited by SaberFang
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2 hours ago, Nasher said:

West Coast aren't beating Adelaide. They are as soft and as likely to drop clutch games as we are. Even with the outs, Crows are too good for them.

I know falling over the line in a last team standing battle isn't how we all dreamed of it happening during the week, but if that's how it happens, I for one will take it over missing out.

I hope you're right but W C are now fav to win tomorrow. 

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6 minutes ago, Mr Steve said:

I hope you're right but W C are now fav to win tomorrow. 

The bookies know more than we do. Adelaide will have late outs as they have nothing to play for. They certainly won't put their bodies on the line and risk injuries.

Gill gets his wish of the last game of the season determining the top 8. Too bad the result will be a blowout by half-time.

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2 minutes ago, SaberFang said:

The bookies know more than we do. Adelaide will have late outs as they have nothing to play for. They certainly won't put their bodies on the line and risk injuries.

Gill gets his wish of the last game of the season determining the top 8. Too bad the result will be a blowout by half-time.

Crows won't risk entering a finals series on the back of two losses. Momentum is going to be the difference in this finals series and right now they have it, they won't want to lose it. 

Still a very strong side on paper and the eagles have been less than convincing yet somehow being talked about as though they're a top 4 side 

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2 minutes ago, Abe said:

Crows won't risk entering a finals series on the back of two losses. Momentum is going to be the difference in this finals series and right now they have it, they won't want to lose it. 

They aren't doing much to help their cause -- Walker, Talia, Greenwood all being "managed" stinks.

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1 minute ago, SaberFang said:

They aren't doing much to help their cause -- Walker, Talia, Greenwood all being "managed" stinks.

Just leaves Sloane, Jacobs, both crouch brothers, lever, betts, Jenkins, lynch, McGovern, Douglas, smith, laird, Atkins, Cameron and so on. They have some scary depth. 

 

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I think that West Coast is going to lose but in case they win I just want to issue a minor correction to some previous posts.

melbournes percentage is approximately 1.0522

so the required score for WC is:

WC = 16.28+1.0522  x  Adelaide's score

examples ( Adelaide first)

50 69

75 96

100 122

115 148

let's hope it does not come down to this!

 

 

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5 hours ago, Abe said:

Just leaves Sloane, Jacobs, both crouch brothers, lever, betts, Jenkins, lynch, McGovern, Douglas, smith, laird, Atkins, Cameron and so on. They have some scary depth. 

 

Who will take Josh Kennedy with Talia out?  

With any luck the ball wont go down there much anyway

 

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I wouldn't be surprised to see Betts, Sloane (and/or others) omitted, especially if their first final is on the Thursday night.  Both those guys have spent time on the bench in the last few weeks with injury concerns. 

I'm guessing Adelaide will talk to the AFL before the game and will know if their final is the Thursday night.  If so they are more likely to rest players.  Being minor premiers they may even get a choice when to play that final. 

Adelaide will want to win to keep momentum and players want to cement their spot but there is no imperative for them to send their best side or to risk injury. 

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2 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

Who will take Josh Kennedy with Talia out?  

With any luck the ball wont go down there much anyway

 

It'll be a team effort with lever and co, they'll be fine. 

Who crows still have a far more dangerous forward line. I can't see them scoring less than 100 points so the eagles will need minimum 121 to overtake us. 

Its not just about winning. Beating the top side by four goals is a big ask. Sydney couldn't do it with talia off for a big chunk of the game and tex having absolutely no impact 

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On ‎26‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 5:50 AM, Copuchas said:

Hey @Ungarieboy only three out of the selected Crows side so far!   But there's no way they're flirting with form against WCE right?

Geez talk about mfcss, Adelaide do not want to go into a final series with two losses in row (particularly to fellow final contenders); and will play accordingly, with winning their primary focus. Come finals confidence is a huge advantage. 

Though of course if there are a couple of players that have niggling injuries or in need freshening up for the finals campaign well yes they will do it.  We likely did it with Viney, and in an ironic twist Watts (giving him a run to blow out the cobwebs) and no-one here was screaming conspiracy theories. Even to the point of running some depth players through the team in a leadup to the final series to allow them to slot in when the inevitable injuries occur (again think what we have done with Stretch, Maynard, Wagner, etc)

but to put it bluntly, if you want to persist with this frame of thought (managing a result specifically to exclude the Dee's from the finals), then meeting a Melbourne team (that struggled to beat the wooden spooners, and in reality was never in the contest against the Pies) would probably be your preferred finals opponent.

Unfortunately the way we are playing at the moment means we are not even on the radar of other teams.  

Again we may be at the mercy of Adelaide loosing to the Eagles (who will probably play with the most venom they have all year), but it is not because they want to loose. 

Actually a few fringe players in the crows side may help us, as they will be desperate to win a finals spot, while the regulars are more likely to go through the motions (lacking intensity) which would be far more damaging to their chances of winning.  

For the record we blew our finals chance when we allowed Brisbane to come back from 5+ goals, and of course not beating Collingwood just confirmed we don't deserve it (though ironically nor do the eagles, saints, or dogs)

If you want to persist with conspiracy theories, then here's one: The crows will do what they can to manufacture a loss, not because the fear meeting the Dee's in the finals, but because they don't want to see a bottom 8 side gaining a huge confidence boost (and easy path) beating up on an insipid 8th place Demons.

Reality is we lost; and now will likely suffer the consequences because, we lost

Go the Crows, 

or even more satisfying Go the Dockers!!!!

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11 minutes ago, Ungarie boy said:

Geez talk about mfcss, Adelaide do not want to go into a final series with two losses in row (particularly to fellow final contenders); and will play accordingly, with winning their primary focus. Come finals confidence is a huge advantage. 

Though of course if there are a couple of players that have niggling injuries or in need freshening up for the finals campaign well yes they will do it.  We likely did it with Viney, and in an ironic twist Watts (giving him a run to blow out the cobwebs) and no-one here was screaming conspiracy theories. Even to the point of running some depth players through the team in a leadup to the final series to allow them to slot in when the inevitable injuries occur (again think what we have done with Stretch, Maynard, Wagner, etc)

but to put it bluntly, if you want to persist with this frame of thought (managing a result specifically to exclude the Dee's from the finals), then meeting a Melbourne team (that struggled to beat the wooden spooners, and in reality was never in the contest against the Pies) would probably be your preferred finals opponent.

Unfortunately the way we are playing at the moment means we are not even on the radar of other teams.  

Again we may be at the mercy of Adelaide loosing to the Eagles (who will probably play with the most venom they have all year), but it is not because they want to loose. 

Actually a few fringe players in the crows side may help us, as they will be desperate to win a finals spot, while the regulars are more likely to go through the motions (lacking intensity) which would be far more damaging to their chances of winning.  

For the record we blew our finals chance when we allowed Brisbane to come back from 5+ goals, and of course not beating Collingwood just confirmed we don't deserve it (though ironically nor do the eagles, saints, or dogs)

If you want to persist with conspiracy theories, then here's one: The crows will do what they can to manufacture a loss, not because the fear meeting the Dee's in the finals, but because they don't want to see a bottom 8 side gaining a huge confidence boost (and easy path) beating up on an insipid 8th place Demons.

Reality is we lost; and now will likely suffer the consequences because, we lost

Go the Crows, 

or even more satisfying Go the Dockers!!!!

Very good post. If we dont want it badly enough whats the point? I expect the Crows to play hard but Eagles should be too good with their outs. 

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