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Looking ahead ... the Path to September


Diamond_Jim
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14 hours ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Melbourne lost to North Melbourne twice and we still deserve to play finals.

And not forgetting we kicked ourselves out of the Geelong game, should have beaten Hawthorn, Fremantle and both North games. Had we got home in those games we would not have to give a "flying fig" about Essendon or W.C. games. Our curve is so far on the up that regardless of what happens this year, next year should be so much better and the experience gained from this season will galvanize this team into a strong unit.

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42 minutes ago, MT64 said:

And not forgetting we kicked ourselves out of the Geelong game, should have beaten Hawthorn, Fremantle and both North games. Had we got home in those games we would not have to give a "flying fig" about Essendon or W.C. games. Our curve is so far on the up that regardless of what happens this year, next year should be so much better and the experience gained from this season will galvanize this team into a strong unit.

And Richmond struggled to put us away when we were two players short. 

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Don't worry about West Coast, Richmond will lose tomorrow. We would've been playing them week 1 and been able to bank a win giving us enormous confidence going into week 2. On the bright side should West Coast choke I'll save on airfares because we wil be playing the Swans at the SCG.

Come in Frost.

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1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Cheering for a GWS win tonight. Adelaide can concede top spot if Gws win and top spot gets you the Friday night prelim and the extra day break. That would be motivation for Adelaide.

However, if GWS win and then Richmond win, Richmond will finish 3rd. Surely Adelaide would think twice about winning and playing Geelong at home vs losing and playing Richmond at home?

If I were Adelaide I'd want the easiest QF match up possible to get the best chance at a home PF. 

If Geelong wins, Adelaide will be locked into first and will have nothing to play for. However, it may be in that case that they also have nothing to "lose for" and may then use the game as a tune up for finals.

Perverse logic, I know. I'm clutching at straws here.

40 minutes ago, JV7 said:

This is the equation

Screenshot_20170826-173127.png

The more Adelaide scores, the more West Coast has to win by.

Adelaide's average score this year is 111.

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I think Adelaide will win, and fairly comfortably. They have a couple of their stars out, but they're not top of the table on the back of just 2 players. Maybe the margin might come back a bit in the last quarter, but they're tuning up for a tilt at the premiership, and hard to see them just going through the motions.

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2 minutes ago, bing181 said:

I think Adelaide will win, and fairly comfortably. They have a couple of their stars out, but they're not top of the table on the back of just 2 players. Maybe the margin might come back a bit in the last quarter, but they're tuning up for a tilt at the premiership, and hard to see them just going through the motions.

I suppose in some respects their loss to Sydney last week helps us. They may not want to have gone a month without winning before finals.

Still, I can easily see West Coast jumping out to an early lead and Adelaide putting the cue in the rack midway through the match for fear of knocking themselves out trying to get back into a game they might not need to win (and, if GWS and Richmond win, might prefer to lose).

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2 hours ago, GCDee said:

When WCE win by 17+ we are done.

not quite, just done some % calculations and here's the equation:

If Eagles score <70 , Melbourne make it the Eagles win by 18 points or less

If they score between 70-90, Melbourne make it if Eagels win by 19 points or less

Score 90-110, we make it if they win by 20 points or less

Score over about 115, we're in if the Eagles win by 21 points or less

 

Bernie not kicking that goal at the death may well cost us a spot in this years finals!

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1 hour ago, Abe said:

Still backing Adelaide. They're in good form and the eagles have been average for a while. 

Crows will want to hit finals with momentum 

But they aren't really taking it seriously with Talia and Walker being rested.

Any niggles could have been cured over the bye round.

We are screwed. 

 

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31 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

But they aren't really taking it seriously with Talia and Walker being rested.

Any niggles could have been cured over the bye round.

We are screwed. 

 

Do you think Adelaide really wants to go into finals on a 2-match losing streak? Do you think the players Adelaide brought in to replace Walker and Talia don't want to prove themselves and snag a place in the Crows' finals side?

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46 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

But they aren't really taking it seriously with Talia and Walker being rested.

Any niggles could have been cured over the bye round.

We are screwed. 

 

Well it depends. Most take a couple of weeks to get right. 

They still have a very strong side on paper and three guys come in determined to hold their spots. 

Eagles never handle pressure and now they just have to beat the top side by 4 goals to get a finals spot. A side that even without walker is capable of scoring very quickly and ripping the eagles web apart. 

Not only do the crows win but I reckon they do it quite easily 

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Jaheezus H Christmas, I'm used to not sleeping at night due to work issues, But unlike some here, I'll lose no sleep tonight worrying about whether we play finals or not! I think today with everything on the line shows where we are at. Shocking loses in key games Norf ( 2) Freo and today really tell us where we are at mentally and I'm sorry but we have too many players who rest on laurels and don't want it bad enough! 

I'll sleep easy tonight!

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On 6/25/2017 at 7:01 PM, Diamond_Jim said:

Time to dream guys and gals

We are definitely on the way

Barring injuries and catastrophic form drop offs I now have us on a minimum of 13 wins by seasons end.

This will put us around the 6 or 7 mark.

The odds favour a home final against a Victorian team in the first week unless West Coast can turn its ship around. (Big game next week against the Bulldogs for them).

I would like to think we could pinch another two games at least which would end us on 15 wins.

15 wins should get us fifth but we will probably need some help with percentages to crack the top 4.

For those who complain and say one week at a time I say this time has been a long time coming and it's time my friends to sweep the MFCSS away and dream the dream.

Thanks Jim but the path leads to mowing the lawns in Sep.

The dream was fun but..... deluded. My bad.

Next year me thinks if we can get the right players and some bloody good luck for once.

Sometimes I wish we still had the VFL.

We may have had a flag by now without all these interstate clubs.

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16 minutes ago, picket fence said:

Jaheezus H Christmas, I'm used to not sleeping at night due to work issues, But unlike some here, I'll lose no sleep tonight worrying about whether we play finals or not! I think today with everything on the line shows where we are at. Shocking loses in key games Norf ( 2) Freo and today really tell us where we are at mentally and I'm sorry but we have too many players who rest on laurels and don't want it bad enough! 

I'll sleep easy tonight!

Goodnight, sleep tight, don't let the bed bugs bite 

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44 minutes ago, Chook said:

Do you think Adelaide really wants to go into finals on a 2-match losing streak? Do you think the players Adelaide brought in to replace Walker and Talia don't want to prove themselves and snag a place in the Crows' finals side?

Hope you are right!!

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I remembered saying prior to the Brisbane game, a comfortable/big win just about cements our spot in the finals, while a tight win leaves the door ajar. 

I'm as angry about how we took the foot off last week as I am about today's loss. We switch off/fail to switch on so easily. 

We win by 30+ points last week (for crying out loud North SMASHED the Lions this week) and we force WC to play catch up to us. 

If we miss finals we only have ourselves to blame, and if it happens I don't want to hear the boys are gutted, I want to hear they pi55ed off!!!! 

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