Welcome to Demonland: Jake Lever

[old dee 22,799]

We have sold the farm for this guy.

He has a lot to live up to, I hope his is that good.

but I do agree with Stigga early draft picks have no guarantees.

[Goffer 256]

They bent us over in this trade. 

[ickey_11 145]

19 minutes ago, Bring Back Barassi said:

Luke Ball said he would not play for any club other than Collingwood, and if anyone picked him he would sit out the season. From memory i think he got picked at 30, Saints got nothing

Luke Ball only played 81 games for Collingwood, Lever will be a 10+ year player for Melbourne.

Pick 30 was probably too high for a midfielder who averaged 20.8 poss/game (for Collingwood) and 20.4 (career).

[Gator 16,888]

4 minutes ago, old dee said:

We have sold the farm for this guy.

He has a lot to live up to, I hope his is that good.

but I do agree with Stigga early draft picks have no guarantees.

No, we haven't.

[Redleg 37,441]

2 hours ago, Redleg said:

Its not about being Melbourne or weak. It's about getting the deal done and being able to move onto other deals, rather than getting bogged down and missing out on those deals.

I agree we paid overs, but we have a very good footballer added to our side and as I said above, we can now move on and do other deals.

Even the Bombers seem to have paid overs for Smith, but they also can now move on to other deals.

[Fat Tony 4,348]

Based on the points system, I have Lever valued at around Pick 5. This depends on a range of variables, including the discount rate on future picks, the quality of each draft, next year’s finishing position and compensation picks. The key variable is really where Melbourne finish in 2018. 

Pick 10 (1,395) + MEL R1 2018 (1,395) + MEL R4 2018 (100) - Pick 35 (460) - ADEL R2 2018 (550) = 1,880 = Lever

So I see this as being still a decent trade for Melbourne and probably around fair market value. For example, I would rather the proven Lever over Noah Balta, who is 5th on Knightmare’s Power Rankings. (Not that I have seen Balta play.) It is a bad trade if we finish in the bottom 4.

[ding 5,126]

Just now, Redleg said:

I agree we paid overs, but we have a very good footballer added to our side and as I said above, we can now move on and do other deals.

Even the Bombers seem to have paid overs for Smith, but they also can now move on to other deals.

The Bombers did better out of that deal than most realise. The initial report wasnt the whole story.

 

Essendon receives Devon Smith, a second-round draft selection (no.24 overall at the time of trade) and a future second-round selection	From Greater Western Sydney
GWS	Greater Western Sydney receives a first-round draft selection (no.11 overall at the time of trade) and a future third-round selection

[Optimus D 283]

Good work Dees and welcome Jake.

The surprised for me was that it didn't drag out to next week.  Makes me think that Mahoney and Co may have something else brewing and had to tidy up Levers deals first.

 

[Jaded No More 57,545]

We get deals done every single year because we are good to deal with! There is a lot to be said for being a fair and transparent club to deal with, it makes life a lot easier for us and encourages players to nominate us, as they know we can get a deal done. 

We didn't pay over and we didn't pay under, we paid market value for a gun 21 year old. 
Would you want less if Hogan was to leave? Trac? Oliver? No, we would want more.
Lever is in the same class.
 

[DeezNuts 624]

We can now comfortably add a few extra inside 50s, rebounding 50s, intercept marks, kicks hitting targets and effective handballs - spread that out over a year and we're in the finals (hopefully)... - glad it's done!

[DeezNuts 624]

2 minutes ago, Jaded said:

There is a lot to be said for being a fair and transparent club to deal with, it makes life a lot easier for us and encourages players to nominate us, as they know we can get a deal done. 
 

Good call, all part of the brand, well done MFC. This also potentially sends a message to future recruits (Sloane anyone?). Just hoping Viney Snr takes Sloane out for a beer with Bernie over the summer to touch base

[w00dy 146]

I think they will now and try to package up 35 with Watts to get back in the first round.  

[The Stigga 879]

26 minutes ago, old dee said:

We have sold the farm for this guy.

He has a lot to live up to, I hope his is that good.

but I do agree with Stigga early draft picks have no guarantees.

 

Edited October 12, 2017 by The Stigga

[Nasher 33,047]

12 minutes ago, Fat Tony said:

Based on the points system, I have Lever valued at around Pick 5. This depends on a range of variables, including the discount rate on future picks, the quality of each draft, next year’s finishing position and compensation picks. The key variable is really where Melbourne finish in 2018. 

Pick 10 (1,395) + MEL R1 2018 (1,395) + MEL R4 2018 (100) - Pick 35 (460) - ADEL R2 2018 (550) = 1,880 = Lever

So I see this as being still a decent trade for Melbourne and probably around fair market value. For example, I would rather the proven Lever over Noah Balta, who is 5th on Knightmare’s Power Rankings. (Not that I have seen Balta play.) It is a bad trade if we finish in the bottom 4.

If we finish bottom 4, there will be plenty of other questions to be asked first!

It becomes an interesting feedback loop when a trade for a player involves a future pick. The player in this case should improve our prospects for next year, thereby automatically devaluing the pick we're trading him for.

And Adelaide will now be hexing us big time in the hope that its value grows, so it adds another dimension to the rivalry. 

Good times!

[John Crow Batty 8,215]

Given our poor strike rate with first round picks, I think the deal is good assuming Lever lives up to his expected form and influence. “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”. That proverb have never been more apt for our situation.

Edited October 12, 2017 by america de cali

[DTJ 95]

Looking at his draft year, Lever is top 3 in terms of output. Probably top 2 if I wasn't so biased with Petracca. 

Go back to 2014 - you'd pick Jake Lever with number 1 (Isaac Heeney was an Academy player).

Would you swap pick 10 & 14 for pick 1?

[beelzebub 22,225]

Well done Melbounre

Welcome Jake

The whole arena of picks is a bit like Forex....relative values sliding up and down . It's really bout what suits YOU at the time. Any of the picks used this year r next on kids will be waiting 2-3 years for any real return ( on average )...then there's the  "lotto effect"

We havent finished our horse trading yet  so who knows what we will end up with in picks and even bringing next year into the equation also who knows how trading will shape our opportunities then.

I think this is cLEVER strategy . We know exactly what we are getting and it suits out requirements.

Overs is very subjective really. 

Enjoy the break Jake....got a big preseason ahead

[Rogue 585]

Draft picks are overrated. To put this trade in perspective, here are our top 20 picks since 2007:

• Scully - pick 1
• Watts - pick 1
• Petracca - pick 2
• Hogan - pick 2
• Trengove - pick 2
• Brayshaw - pick 3
• Oliver - pick 4
• Toumpas - pick 4
• Morton - pick 4
• Weideman - pick 9
• Salem - pick 9
• Gysberts - pick 11
• Cook - pick 12
• Grimes - pick 14
• Blease - pick 17
• Tapscott - pick 18
• Strauss - pick 19

Would people be crying that we'd 'paid overs' and were 'amateurs' if we'd packaged up Weid and Grimes*, or Salem and Cook*, to get Lever, pick 35 and upgrade pick 64 to pick 50?

*Oh wait, we couldn't offer those trades because these blokes are already out of the system.

PS. Honourable mention to Marric at pick 21.

 

Edited October 12, 2017 by Rogue

[Binmans PA 25,865]

1 hour ago, Bring Back Barassi said:

Mahoneys negotiating skills are particularly poor. He was in a commanding position in this trade, Lever could have gone to the draft Luke Ball style and Crows would have gotten nothing. If he stood firm on 10 + 27 they would have had no choice but to capitulate.

Likewise, telegraphing to the world that we didnt want Watts devalued his currency significantly.

Obviously the guys know what they are doing when it comes to talent and footy, they just need a decent business advisor to help them in doing deals.

On the contrary, I'm sure he's getting a reputation for being someone who 'deals fair' and if ever karma was actually a thing, it'd be in AFL trading stakes. What goes around comes around.

1 hour ago, GawnWithTheWind said:

We grossly overvalue draft picks in the AFL. You go into the draft with normally less than a 50% draft of turning a first round pick into a 150 game player, let alone a superstar.

We have essentially bet against the draft, and secured a guaranteed young talented player who will impact games automatically.

It's a smart trade, and a huge win for our club.

Love it.

I can understand why some MFC supporters miss the obvious here though. Hope in the draft is about all we had for close to a decade.

[binman 37,715]

26 minutes ago, Redleg said:

I agree we paid overs, but we have a very good footballer added to our side and as I said above, we can now move on and do other deals.

Even the Bombers seem to have paid overs for Smith, but they also can now move on to other deals.

You agree with yourself?

 

[Dwight Schrute 16,696]

I don’t mind the deal. Effectively 10,12 and a fourth rounder 

 for lever ( a proven nearly all Australian standard defender at 21) pick 35 and probably around 50.

Given all draft picks carry risk I don’t think it’s correct to assume they’ll be a star. I think this is very much a win-win deal

[Binmans PA 25,865]

1 hour ago, KingDingAling said:

MFC speaks a good game but just can't negotiate. Lever did all the leg work, and put us in a strong position at the trade table. We just gave away a future first round pick we didn't need to. MFC once again pulling the trigger early. Amateurs.

You really think the MFC didn't have a word in his ear about that? You're pretty naive if you missed that.

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,850]

38 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Off to work on my best 22 for 2018  ?

We've just added a player who will immediately be in the top 10 on our list. 

Nothing to sneeze at. 

Is Frost in it? And your thoughts on not going after Rockliff.

cheers

Edited October 12, 2017 by Bombay Airconditioning

[Demons1858 1,657]

5 minutes ago, Rogue said:

Draft picks are overrated. To put this trade in perspective, here are our top 20 picks since 2007:

• Scully - pick 1
• Watts - pick 1
• Petracca - pick 2
• Hogan - pick 2
• Trengove - pick 2
• Brayshaw - pick 3
• Oliver - pick 4
• Toumpas - pick 4
• Morton - pick 4
• Weideman - pick 9
• Salem - pick 9
• Gysberts - pick 11
• Cook - pick 12
• Grimes - pick 14
• Blease - pick 17
• Tapscott - pick 18
• Strauss - pick 19

Would people be crying that we'd 'paid overs' and were 'amateurs' if we'd packaged up Weid and Grimes*, or Salem and Cook*, to get Lever, pick 35 and pick 50?

*Oh wait, we couldn't offer those trades because these blokes are already out of the system.

PS. Honourable mention to Marric at pick 21.

 

The MFC  based sample is skewed and are outliers due to never seen before recruitment, development, and coaching by MFC.

Best you get a sample from all clubs to make your point.

[P-man 13,154]

I'm not thrilled with giving up two first round picks for, talented or not, an intercept marking defender. But I'm also not unhappy. He's a known commodity and he makes us a better side.

Welcome aboard Jakey boy. May you bring us lots of money. Um, I mean success.