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Saturday’s match kicks off at 4.35pm AEDT and will be broadcast live nationally on Fox Footy from 4.30pm.

Melbourne AFLW team: round seven

Backs: Jasmine Grierson, Mia-Rae Clifford, Katherine Smith

Half Backs: Daisy Pearce, Laura Duryea, Richelle Cranston

Centres: Harriet Cordner

Half Forwards: Karen Paxman, Alyssa Mifsud, Lily Mithen

Forwards: Sarah Lampard, Shelley Scott, Cat Phillips

Followers: Lauren Pearce, Mel Hickey, Elise O’Dea

Interchange: Emma Humphries, Maddie Boyd, Aliesha Newman, Ainslie Kemp, Brooke Patterson, Deanna Berry

Emergencies: Pepa Randall, Jessica Anderson

Unavailable/injured: Stephanie De Bortoli, Meg Downie

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This could either be our last game of the season or the second last depending on how things go. For those who remember the Melbourne V Brisbane exhibition match at the MCG last year will also remember our score being 91-20 in our favour. Yes - it was an all-star Melbourne side against an extremely weak Lions outfit, but jeeez if we managed to repeat that score this weekend then we are a lock to make history and make the inaugural AFLW Grand Final (not to mention it will be the first granny this club has appeared in for 16/17 years). If we win by 70 points, this will boost our percentage over Adelaide's. If Adelaide win though, and by a large margin, then the boost won't really have an impact. As disgusting as it is, we have to hope that the filth beat the Crows next week. This will be the most likely scenario to see the Melbourne Football Club contend for the 2017 AFLW flag.

We have Brooke Patterson coming back who has been quite a handy player and may provide some fresh legs for the side who pushed it to the absolute limit last week in Darwin. What's not in our favour is Freo coming off of a win and bringing that confidence in this week. Don't think they will be used to playing at Casey and also do not think they will match our confidence, team unity, etc.

Adelaide would also be feeling the effects from the last round and on top of this they have to travel again to VIC to play the filth at their home ground. The scumbags have come off a large win last week and are on a run, and me thinks that their ego will want them to get a big scalp in Adelaide and end their season.

Will be very disappointing and very Melbourne-like to throw in the towel and lose on Saturday, but I am confident that we are going to absolutely belt the living christ out of the Dockers and barge our way into the granny.

Dees by 70 (or at least we win/crows lose).

Edited by Dee Gee
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I'll be watching intently for a fast start. We always seem to take a while to get real momentum so getting things going early could make for a very big scoreline.

I'd like to see us really fire up one of our top strengths - goals from the center bounce - and get a quick run of those early to break the spirit of Freo.

On the flipside, the weakness I most want to see ironed out is the tendency to waste inside-50s, either from inaccuracy or simple not getting it effectively to a target player. If we had been even slightly better at this over the season, we would not have lost a single game. It was the defining failure of both our losses;

- vs Giants, 1 goal 9 behinds from 29 inside-50s, against 3.2 from 13 inside 50s.

- vs Lions, 1 goal 4 behinds from 30 inside-50s, against 4.1 from 19 inside 50s.

 

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http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/aflw/melbourne-star-karen-paxman-is-a-favourite-to-the-win-aflw-best-and-fairest-but-doesnt-watch-afl/news-story/89293c9679a55f77174a4e86a0886002

Great article on Karen Paxman

“Definitely. I feel like if we had another chance against Brisbane (we would win),” Paxman says.

“My opinion is, we’re the best team in the competition and I think we can definitely win.

Hope Kazza doesn't have to eat her words, but I love the confidence.

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Just now, RalphiusMaximus said:

As poor as Freo have been this year, I don't think we can produce a big enough win to overtake Adelaide on percentage, so we need Collingwood to play out of their skins and knock them over for us.  Then all that's left for us is to win. 

Agree. It's highly unlikely, next to impossible. Which makes it all the more sweeter if it were to happen!!!!!!

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11 minutes ago, Dee Gee said:

Agree. It's highly unlikely, next to impossible. Which makes it all the more sweeter if it were to happen!!!!!!

I've just been looking at the previous results.  Collingwood have kicked scores of 32, 32 and 55 in their last three rounds for three wins.  Adelaide have kicked 46, 30 and 32 for a win and two losses.  Looking at that, a close game is likely, so even if Adelaide win it shouldn't raise their percentage much.  Obviously, we hope that doesn't happen. 

That then means that we will need to break records to get our percentage up.  a 60-0 score wouldn't be enough.  95-10 would probably do it (159.89%).  90-10 wouldn't be enough (157.06%). 

We REALLY need the Pies to win. 

 

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1 hour ago, RalphiusMaximus said:

I've just been looking at the previous results.  Collingwood have kicked scores of 32, 32 and 55 in their last three rounds for three wins.  Adelaide have kicked 46, 30 and 32 for a win and two losses.  Looking at that, a close game is likely, so even if Adelaide win it shouldn't raise their percentage much.  Obviously, we hope that doesn't happen. 

That then means that we will need to break records to get our percentage up.  a 60-0 score wouldn't be enough.  95-10 would probably do it (159.89%).  90-10 wouldn't be enough (157.06%). 

We REALLY need the Pies to win. 

 

If Adelaide only beat the Pies by a couple of points, their percentage will go down a lot, especially if the scores are near the recent scores for each team you've given above. The more the Pies kick, the better, even if the Crows win. For example, if Crows win 44 points to 42, their percentage will come down to about 159%. Which puts it much more within range than 160%. If Pies kick 32 points again, Crows would have to kick about 52 to maintain their current percentage.

Freo have conceded an average of 38 points a game. If we can go about 2 goals better than that, and hold them to under 2 goals, we're in with a chance. On the other hand, we could have a problem with the 2 or 3 goals that we seem to concede every game to appalling umpiring decisions. 

To give ourselves a chance to get over Adelaide even if they win, we'll still need to kick our biggest score of the season while we hold Freo to a very low score. That just means that they'll have to be firing from the first bounce and keep it up until the final siren. We're quite capable of kicking 2 or 3 goals in a quarter, we just don't seem to be able to sustain that over 4 quarters.

Edited by Akum
clarityness
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3 hours ago, Dee Gee said:

I agree that it was a ripper article but enhanced by the video highlights. The difference between Round 1 and Round 6 is amazing (like watching two different codes), especially Newman's goal for the Dees.

Back on topic, it is lovely that the girls feel part of the Club because they are great to watch and will garner lots of converts to the game. No wonder they have been so readily embraced by the Men's team, coached and support staff.

If we get through today to the GF, I am sure that our girls have the skills and grit to pull of the Premiership!

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16 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

I'll be watching intently for a fast start. We always seem to take a while to get real momentum so getting things going early could make for a very big scoreline.

I'd like to see us really fire up one of our top strengths - goals from the center bounce - and get a quick run of those early to break the spirit of Freo.

On the flipside, the weakness I most want to see ironed out is the tendency to waste inside-50s, either from inaccuracy or simple not getting it effectively to a target player. If we had been even slightly better at this over the season, we would not have lost a single game. It was the defining failure of both our losses;

- vs Giants, 1 goal 9 behinds from 29 inside-50s, against 3.2 from 13 inside 50s.

- vs Lions, 1 goal 4 behinds from 30 inside-50s, against 4.1 from 19 inside 50s.

 

Ive been hearing commentary about the inside 50 count for woman and how it doesn't have the same meaning that it does for the mens game. They're saying, and I agree, that inside 50's can still be 2 kicks from goal for the woman. The stat we really need for the AFLW is inside 30's. Imo the stat that really hurt  us against the giants and Brisbane was poor kicking for goal! 

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9 hours ago, CBDees said:

I agree that it was a ripper article but enhanced by the video highlights. The difference between Round 1 and Round 6 is amazing (like watching two different codes), especially Newman's goal for the Dees.

...

Another reason to love Elise O'Dea. Cat Phillips takes a very good contested mark in the middle of the ground & is wondering what to do. While everyone else rests & watches, O'Dea sprints from half-back, runs past Cat who handballs in front of her. By the time she meets the ball and picks it up she's sprinted a good 50 metres, late in the game. She tries to sidestep an opponent (was it Chelsea Randall?) then realises she doesn't have the strength in her legs to take off, so has to kick it quickly. But she manages to get enough distance on the kick from tired legs to get it out the back of the contest between Aliesha Newman & Angie Foley (Foley who'd brilliantly outmarked Daisy in the goal square earlier that quarter). This allowed Newman to get out the back and hit the ball at speed and she was good enough to do the rest.

If O'Dea was happy to sit back & watch like everyone else, it might not have gone anywhere near goal. It was fantastic play by Newman to get the opportunist goal that Jeffy would have been proud of, but equally great lead-up play by O'Dea to get it to her.

All this emphasises your point, CBDs. It's not just a matter of scrambling it forward and then scrapping a goal. Many of the passages of play, at all parts of the ground, are extremely good and would do credit to any team. The improvement in just half a dozen games is, as you say, amazing.

Edited by Akum
my wife distracted me
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5 minutes ago, deanox said:

I think the % dream is over and is all up to Collingwood now. 

I think you're right. 

We're still 20% behind so even with a big quarter we're not likely to catch the Crows' %age.

We will most likely have to rely on a Collingwood victory ? or in the alternative a narrow Adelaide win in a really high scoring shootout.

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