THE TRADING CHRONICLES 2016 by The Oracle

[Demonland 72,176]

PART ONE - NOTHING SPECTACULAR by the Oracle

In case you haven't noticed, the AFL's free agency and trade period for 2016 is under way.

While the young hopefuls were going through the hoops at the AFL Draft Combine late last week and over the weekend, the NAB AFL restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period began somewhat quietly on Friday.

In among the scuttlebutt, the trade rumours and the posturing of player managers, the first true sign that proceedings were under way came when Hawthorn tabled a free agency offer for Ty Vickery . They offered him a two-year deal and because the forward/ruckman is a restricted free agent, this gives the Tigers the right to match the Hawks' offer by Monday (i.e. within three days of the offer being made). If Richmond matches the offer, Hawthorn would have to trade for Vickery or seek to pick him in the national or pre-season draft.

So we're off and running and by tomorrow morning at 10.00am the official NAB AFL Trade Period will begin in earnest. The early focus will be on free agency with the AFL restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period ending next Sunday (although the restricted free agency matching offer three-day period ends on Wednesday week). A day after that, Thursday October 20, at 2.00pm, the NAB AFL Trade Period will come to a close.

The following article from the AFL site provides an insight into the expected main activity of the free agency and trade period - Free agency open: Wells, Vickery, Mayne and others set to find new homes.

You might have noticed (and not just from the article) that according to the pundits, the Melbourne Football Club is not expected to figure heavily in the free agency and trading over the next fortnight. There's another article on the Demons' website where the club's national recruiting manager, Jason Taylor says the club "is keeping an open mind with it's opening selection in this year's NAB AFL Draft, ahead of the trade and draft period" - Open mind for recruiting period: Taylor. Well ... yes and what I get from the article is virtually nothing and certainly not the slightest hint that from an MFC point of view, anything spectacular is about to happen.

The reasons for that are obvious. The Demons appear to have entered into a period of stability with their list. In the first instance, most of us would accept that every required player has now been contracted at least for the coming year. The club has ticked off on Jesse Hogan, the McDonald boys, Dom Tyson and more recently Cam Pedersen. The only outside player coming in (aside from Category B rookie Corey Maynard) is Essendon defender Michael Hibberd who has confirmed he wants out of the Bombers and his preferred destination is Melbourne. The general consensus among draft watchers is that he will cost the Demons a second round draft pick. Hibberd would be joining Jake Melksham at the club giving it two experienced "recruits" to start with when next season comes around.

Time will tell as to what else the club can conjure up in the next fortnight. With its first round draft pick traded out last year and a second earmarked for Hibberd, the trade cupboard might be very bare although we will most likely not know until late in the piece as to whether the recruiting and list management team is capable of pulling off a dramatic coup.

The more likely scenario is that the club will pick up a free agent or carry out a trade involving players and/or draft picks but ... I'm not expecting anything spectacular.

Trade period preview: Who will your club target and shop around?

The Oracle will be back from time to time during the free agency and trade period to cover anything that might take place - spectacular or otherwise.

[The Oracle 130]

10 hours ago, Demonland said:

PART ONE - NOTHING SPECTACULAR

I'm not expecting anything spectacular.

Trade period preview: Who will your club target and shop around.

As you can see, nothing spectacular on the cards:-

"Draft selections: 27, 45, 63, 81, 99
Unsigned free agents: N/A
Delistings/retirements: Jack Grimes, Matt Jones, Dean Terlich

AFL.com.au says: Michael Hibberd is first on the shopping list with the club and player committed to each other. Selection No.26 should be enough to get Hibberd, although Essendon has been historically tough to deal with at trade time. The Demons will want another ruckman to support Max Gawn while they are open to trading Lynden Dunn to the Brisbane Lions."

[CBDees 3,167]

Interesting that we seem to have committed pick 26 (or 27 after the Brisbane Priority Pick?) for Hibberd in everybody's eyes yet only last week the MFC website posted a news item suggesting that pick 26 was still in play. (Maybe we have come to another arrangement for Hibberd which would be good news!) I have faith in Taylor and Co. to do something out of left field!

http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2016-10-06/good-options-for-pick-no26-sheehan

[stuie 7,374]

6 minutes ago, CBDees said:

Interesting that we seem to have committed pick 26 (or 27 after the Brisbane Priority Pick?) for Hibberd in everybody's eyes yet only last week the MFC website posted a news item suggesting that pick 26 was still in play. (Maybe we have come to another arrangement for Hibberd which would be good news!) I have faith in Taylor and Co. to do something out of left field!

http://www.melbournefc.com.au/news/2016-10-06/good-options-for-pick-no26-sheehan

Given we have no first round pick this year, it could be a possiblity we offer Essendon next year's second round pick for Hibberd, then we have a second round pick this year and a first round pick next year. Evens it out a little.

 

Edited October 9, 2016 by stuie

[CBDees 3,167]

1 hour ago, stuie said:

Given we have no first round pick this year, it could be a possiblity we offer Essendon next year's second round pick for Hibberd, then we have a second round pick this year and a first round pick next year. Evens it out a little.

 

It makes a bit of sense after last year's trade when we had to wait a year before we got benefit from Melksham whereas they had immediate benefit from our pick. (Also hopefully next year our second round pick is pick 36.)

Edited October 9, 2016 by CBDees

[TRIGON 4,783]

2 hours ago, stuie said:

Given we have no first round pick this year, it could be a possiblity we offer Essendon next year's second round pick for Hibberd, then we have a second round pick this year and a first round pick next year. Evens it out a little.

 

Because Dodoro cares??? 

[stuie 7,374]

2 minutes ago, TRIGON said:

Because Dodoro cares??? 

Huh?

 

[TRIGON 4,783]

Sorry for the confusion caused Stuie, my comment should be taken in the context of CBDees previous post as well.

Edited October 10, 2016 by TRIGON

[stuie 7,374]

7 minutes ago, TRIGON said:

Sorry for the confusion caused Stuie, my comment should be taken in the context of CBDees previous post as well.

Ah gotcha! If it was to happen, the argument to convince the Bombers could be something to do with where they project us to finish next year and what will happen with academy selections etc, especially given our 2nd round pick has already moved down 1 spot given the priority pick for Brisbane. They may gamble that they will get a higher pick next year, and possibly could even already have a player penciled in around that place in the draft.

 

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,734]

17 hours ago, The Oracle said:

As you can see, nothing spectacular on the cards:-

"Draft selections: 27, 45, 63, 81, 99
Unsigned free agents: N/A
Delistings/retirements: Jack Grimes, Matt Jones, Dean Terlich

AFL.com.au says: Michael Hibberd is first on the shopping list with the club and player committed to each other. Selection No.26 should be enough to get Hibberd, although Essendon has been historically tough to deal with at trade time. The Demons will want another ruckman to support Max Gawn while they are open to trading Lynden Dunn to the Brisbane Lions."

They should list the 2017 picks as well as these are also in play. Obviously not the position but the round.

[stuie 7,374]

Tiges getting pick 26 for Vickery compo... We're now out to 28...  Reckon Dodoro might start thinking about that future second rounder now

 

[Whispering_Jack 30,054]

Josh Mahoney spends a whole minute to tell us that nothing's happening.

Trade update: Josh Mahoney

[Redleg 40,905]

1 hour ago, Whispering_Jack said:

Josh Mahoney spends a whole minute to tell us that nothing's happening.

Trade update: Josh Mahoney

And he did it so well.

[The Oracle 130]

PART TWO - FOR GOD'S SAKE ... SOMEBODY SEND US THE STEAK KNIVES !!! by The Oracle

In my dream a full five days have elapsed since the wheeling and dealing started. Everything moves ever so slowly ... every movement is in slow motion and most of the people are speaking in words slurred as if they are half drunk. There's one person in the  room who looks out of place. He's wearing a brown and gold coloured jacket and smoking a Cuban cigar as he deals from a pack of cards to half a dozen faceless men.

The smoke from the cigar rises and curls in the air. He draws the Jack of Hearts, shows it to the other players, places the card face down and grabs the notes that sit in the middle of the table. There, he's just moved Brad Hill and Sammy Mitchell to clubs in WA. In comes Ty Vickery and Tom Mitchell. On the face of one of the notes he just picked off the table the words "NAB National Draft Selection # 10" appear. He turns over another card and it's the King of Diamonds but the face is familiar - that of Jaeger O'Meara.

Lurking furtively in the shadows around a corner, I get a fleeting glimpse of someone else now running out of the room. Could it be Jordan Lewis? He disappears from view as the gambler deals his next card. The Ace of Clubs. 

I turn around and there's a skeleton sitting at the card table. I wake in fright.

Leaving aside the frenetic activity of the Hawthorn Football Club, there hasn't been much going on over the past five days of the free agency and trade period. Collingwood picked up a couple of unrestricted free agents, St Kilda and Fremantle (not Carlton) were the first to claim players from the GWS Giants and the Saints have exchanged draft picks with the Hawks. A week after Brisbane was gifted a priority pick, the Lions traded out national draft selection #2. How does that happen? 

And Melbourne?

The Demons have apparently spent the last 120 hours negotiating with the Bombers over whether to hand over this year's second round pick or next year's. During that time the club's current best draft pick has moved back from number 26 to 29. We're going backwards and, after a whole week haven't even collected a single steak knife!

DONE DEALS SO FAR:

Tyrone Vickery moves from Richmond to Hawthorn as a restricted free agent
Daniel Wells moves from North Melbourne to Collingwood as an unrestricted free agent
Cam McCarthy, pick 7, 34 and 72 move from GWS to Fremantle in exchange for pick 3
Chris Mayne moves from Fremantle to Collingwood as an unrestricted free agent
Brad Hill traded from Hawthorn to Fremantle in exchange for pick 23
Pick 3 and 16 traded from GWS to Brisbane in exchange for picks 2, 31, 51 and 60.
Jack Steele moves from GWS to St Kilda in exchange for their 2017 future round two pick
Sam Mitchell, pick 54 and 72 traded from Hawthorn to West Coast in exchange for pick 52, 70 and 88.
Tom Mitchell and pick 57 traded from Sydney to Hawthorn in exchange for pick 14 and 52
Pick 10 and 68 traded from St Kilda to Hawthorn in exchange for Hawthorn's 2017 future first pick, and this year's picks 23 and 36

[Whispering_Jack 30,054]

Posted elsewhere but relevant here as well. The clubs with academies are going to shore up their dominant positions to enable some of them to snaffle up talent from both within their academy regions and without. This could be troubling for those other clubs expecting to rebuild or improve their lists mainly through the draft. I'm getting the feeling that the Demons are very awake to this and may have been for a while.

INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER (after first week of free agency and trade period)

Club by Club

Adelaide: 13, 53, 71, 89, 107, 125 
Brisbane Lions: 3, 16, 19, 21, 78, 96, 114 
Carlton: 5, 25, 45, 58, 81, 99, 117 
Collingwood: 28, 47, 65, 83, 101 
Essendon: 1, 20, 41, 59, 77, 95, 113 
Fremantle: 7, 35, 43, 61, 73, 79, 97, 115 
Geelong: 38, 42, 56, 74, 91, 92, 110, 128 
Gold Coast: 4, 8, 22, 24, 26, 30, 44, 62, 80, 98, 116
Greater Western Sydney: 2, 15, 31, 37, 51, 55, 60, 109, 127 
Hawthorn: 10, 57, 68, 70, 88, 90, 108, 126 
Melbourne: 29, 48, 66, 84, 102, 120 
North Melbourne: 11, 32, 33, 69, 87, 105, 123 
Port Adelaide: 9, 49, 67, 85, 103, 121 
Richmond: 6, 27, 46, 64, 82, 100, 118 
St Kilda: 23, 36, 50, 86, 104, 122 
Sydney Swans: 14, 17, 39, 52, 93, 111, 129 
West Coast: 12, 34, 54, 72, 106, 124 
Western Bulldogs: 18, 40, 63, 75, 76, 94, 112, 130

Round by Round

Round 1

1. Essendon
2. Greater Western Sydney
3. Brisbane Lions
4. Gold Coast
5. Carlton
6. Richmond
7. Fremantle
8. Gold Coast
9. Port Adelaide
10. Hawthorn
11. North Melbourne
12. West Coast
13. Adelaide
14. Sydney Swans
15. Greater Western Sydney
16. Brisbane Lions
17. Sydney Swans
18. Western Bulldogs
19. Brisbane Lions

Round 2

20. Essendon
21. Brisbane Lions
22. Gold Coast
23. St Kilda
24. Gold Coast
25. Carlton
26. Gold Coast
27. Richmond
28. Collingwood
29. Melbourne
30. Gold Coast
31. Greater Western Sydney
32. North Melbourne
33. North Melbourne
34. West Coast
35. Fremantle
36. St Kilda
37. Greater Western Sydney
38. Geelong
39. Sydney Swans
40. Western Bulldogs

Round 3

41. Essendon
42. Geelong
43. Fremantle
44. Gold Coast
45. Carlton
46. Richmond
47. Collingwood
48. Melbourne
49. Port Adelaide
50. St Kilda
51. Greater Western Sydney
52. Sydney Swans
53. Adelaide
54. West Coast
55. Greater Western Sydney
56. Geelong
57. Hawthorn
58. Carlton

Round 4

59. Essendon
60. Greater Western Sydney
61. Fremantle
62. Gold Coast
63. Western Bulldogs
64. Richmond
65. Collingwood
66. Melbourne
67. Port Adelaide
68. Hawthorn
69. North Melbourne
70. Hawthorn
71. Adelaide
72. West Coast
73. Fremantle
74. Geelong
75. Western Bulldogs
76. Western Bulldogs

Round 5

77. Essendon
78. Brisbane Lions
79. Fremantle
80. Gold Coast
81. Carlton
82. Richmond
83. Collingwood
84. Melbourne
85. Port Adelaide
86. St Kilda
87. North Melbourne
88. Hawthorn
89. Adelaide
90. Hawthorn
91. Geelong
92. Geelong
93. Sydney Swans
94. Western Bulldogs

Round 6

95. Essendon
96. Brisbane Lions
97. Fremantle
98. Gold Coast
99. Carlton
100. Richmond
101. Collingwood
102. Melbourne
103. Port Adelaide
104. St Kilda
105. North Melbourne
106. West Coast
107. Adelaide
108. Hawthorn
109. Greater Western Sydney
110. Geelong
111. Sydney Swans
112. Western Bulldogs

Round 7

113. Essendon
114. Brisbane Lions
115. Fremantle
116. Gold Coast
117. Carlton
118. Richmond
119. Collingwood
120. Melbourne
121. Port Adelaide
122. St Kilda
123. North Melbourne
124. West Coast
125. Adelaide
126. Hawthorn
127. Greater Western Sydney
128. Geelong
129. Sydney Swans
130. Western Bulldogs

[Redleg 40,905]

Might have to remove pick 48 WJ, I think it is gone.

[Sydney Pennski 296]

20 hours ago, The Oracle said:

And Melbourne?

The Demons have apparently spent the last 120 hours negotiating with the Bombers over whether to hand over this year's second round pick or next year's. During that time the club's current best draft pick has moved back from number 26 to 29. We're going backwards and, after a whole week haven't even collected a single steak knife!

I sense the possibility that the next five days might be a little different.

[Whispering_Jack 30,054]

I had to come and post here because I find myself reading threads I have no idea who people are writing about. 

[Hulett Packard III 166]

With all the kerfuffle about the players we are going to be picking up, how many deals have we completed so far?

[Demon Head 273]

9 minutes ago, Hulett Packard III said:

With all the kerfuffle about the players we are going to be picking up, how many deals have we completed so far?

Patience 

[jackaub 1,402]

Looking at delistings MFC my view

Gone Grimes,M Jones & Terlich

Going Dawes (Delisted) Dunn (Traded) Lamumba (retired Hurt)

Total 6 spots for Hibberd, Lewis, Rockcliff

Remaining 3 spots 

Questions- Newton is out of contract?

 Which Rookies do we keep/ upgrade? King,Michie, Wagner or White

How Garland ended up contracted to 2018 is anybodies guess (must have a very good manager or some photos)

Others no longer best 22 Kennedy, Bugg, ANB, Kennedy-Harris, Trengove & Hulett

[The Oracle 130]

The NAB AFL restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period has come to an end and an equal record low of four free agents have found a new home.

Fourteen free agents yet to secure future

Predictably, our own Jack Grimes hasn't been taken but with a bit of luck, he will be picked up as a delisted free agent. Clubs get no compensation for delisted free agents and in fact, there were only three cases of compensation given during the free agency period.

There has been talk that the compensation factor will be eliminated altogether in the near future, a move that IMO can only hurt the weaker clubs further.

[junk 342]

M.King,Michie will be gone.J.Smith and White should be upgraded if we cannot fill all the spots of the de-listees. Keilty might end up as a rookie.

[Whispering_Jack 30,054]

Update:-

INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER (at 6.00pm on 18 October 2016)

By Club 

Adelaide: 13, 53, 71, 89, 107, 125
Brisbane Lions: 3, 16, 21, 22, 78, 96, 114
Carlton: 5, 25, 45, 58, 81, 99, 117
Collingwood: 28, 47, 65, 83, 101
Essendon: 1, 20, 41, 59, 77, 95, 113
Fremantle: 7, 40, 63, 73, 79, 97, 115
Geelong: 38, 42, 56, 74, 91, 92, 110, 128
Gold Coast: 4, 8, 24, 26, 44, 62, 67, 80, 98, 116
Greater Western Sydney: 2, 15, 31, 37, 51, 55, 60, 69, 109, 127
Hawthorn: 10, 48, 66, 70, 88, 90, 108, 126
Melbourne: 29, 57, 68, 84, 102, 120
North Melbourne: 11, 32, 33, 87, 105, 123
Port Adelaide: 9, 19, 30, 49, 85, 103, 121
Richmond: 6, 27, 46, 64, 82, 100, 118
St Kilda: 23, 36, 50, 86, 104, 122
Sydney Swans: 14, 17, 39, 52, 93, 111, 129
West Coast: 12, 34, 54, 72, 106, 124
Western Bulldogs: 18, 35, 43, 61, 75, 76, 94, 112, 130

By Round

Round 1

1. Essendon
2. Greater Western Sydney
3. Brisbane Lions
4. Gold Coast
5. Carlton
6. Richmond
7. Fremantle
8. Gold Coast
9. Port Adelaide
10. Hawthorn
11. North Melbourne
12. West Coast
13. Adelaide
14. Sydney Swans
15. Greater Western Sydney
16. Brisbane Lions
17. Sydney Swans
18. Western Bulldogs
19. Port Adelaide

Round 2

20. Essendon
21. Brisbane Lions
22. Brisbane Lions
23. St Kilda
24. Gold Coast
25. Carlton
26. Gold Coast
27. Richmond
28. Collingwood
29. Melbourne
30. Port Adelaide
31. Greater Western Sydney
32. North Melbourne
33. North Melbourne
34. West Coast
35. Western Bulldogs
36. St Kilda
37. Greater Western Sydney
38. Geelong
39. Sydney Swans
40. Fremantle

Round 3

41. Essendon
42. Geelong
43. Western Bulldogs
44. Gold Coast
45. Carlton
46. Richmond
47. Collingwood
48. Hawthorn
49. Port Adelaide
50. St Kilda
51. Greater Western Sydney
52. Sydney Swans
53. Adelaide
54. West Coast
55. Greater Western Sydney
56. Geelong
57. Melbourne
58. Carlton

Round 4

59. Essendon
60. Greater Western Sydney
61. Western Bulldogs
62. Gold Coast
63. Fremantle
64. Richmond
65. Collingwood
66. Hawthorn
67. Gold Coast
68. Melbourne
69. Greater Western Sydney
70. Hawthorn
71. Adelaide
72. West Coast
73. Fremantle
74. Geelong
75. Western Bulldogs
76. Western Bulldogs

Round 5

77. Essendon
78. Brisbane Lions
79. Fremantle
80. Gold Coast
81. Carlton
82. Richmond
83. Collingwood
84. Melbourne
85. Port Adelaide
86. St Kilda
87. North Melbourne
88. Hawthorn
89. Adelaide
90. Hawthorn
91. Geelong
92. Geelong
93. Sydney Swans
94. Western Bulldogs

Round 6

95. Essendon
96. Brisbane Lions
97. Fremantle
98. Gold Coast
99. Carlton
100. Richmond
101. Collingwood
102. Melbourne
103. Port Adelaide
104. St Kilda
105. North Melbourne
106. West Coast
107. Adelaide
108. Hawthorn
109. Greater Western Sydney
110. Geelong
111. Sydney Swans
112. Western Bulldogs

Round 7

113. Essendon
114. Brisbane Lions
115. Fremantle
116. Gold Coast
117. Carlton
118. Richmond
119. Collingwood
120. Melbourne
121. Port Adelaide
122. St Kilda
123. North Melbourne
124. West Coast
125. Adelaide
126. Hawthorn
127. Greater Western Sydney
128. Geelong
129. Sydney Swans
130. Western Bulldogs

Future Picks (2017 AFL National Draft)

St Kilda have Hawks' 1st round
GWS have St Kilda's 2nd round
Brisbane have Port's 1st round

[The Oracle 130]

It's the penultimate day of the free agency and trade period and the action should really start hotting up today as the clubs have just 1½ days to finalise their trades.

This is the traditional time when the most business gets done and we can expect a few last minutes surprises as clubs jostle for players and draft picks.

Melbourne's main business is to secure Michael Hibberd from the Bombers, a club traditionally regarded as hard to do business with but most in the industry believe it will get done. It also appears that loyal servant Lynden Dunn will find a new home in the Magpies' nest today.

At least after tomorrow things will start returning to normal if that's possible in football.