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A Day at the Races

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Macca said:

Well that was a bit of an inauspicious start fellas!

Ah well,  there's always the sports multi's and my favourite type involves the lower league's in England (Championship,  League 1 & League 2)

Good odds too for the +2.5 match score with a nominated winner.

Anyway,  So Si Bon wins the Airie's Star Stakes ... that's what you call a turn up for the books!  Not exactly the punters favourite either so the bookies would have cleaned up.

Alizee won the Missile Stakes as expected and looks likely to have a big Spring. 

4 Stakes races at Caulfield next week as we build into the new season.  The Group 2 PB Lawrence Stakes over 1400m should attract a good field.

Yeah, pretty rusty start Macca as to be expected. So Si Bon wins out of turn i guess, well hes had his 1 win for the year now. I think the track beat a few of them, downgraded to a heavy 8 just before the jump. I think early Spring (dare i say that) late winter.....turns out to be a bit of a graveyard for some. Hard to judge the fitness, not that its ever easy, but you have no gauge.

Ill be staying with Iconoclasm and we will get some odds on him for a while....

Edited by Wadda We Sing
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Yeah, pretty rusty start Macca as to be expected. So Si Bon wins out of turn i guess, well hes had his 1 win for the year now. I think the track beat a few of them, downgraded to a heavy 8 just before the jump. I think early Spring (dare i say that) late winter.....turns out to be a bit of a graveyard for some. Hard to judge the fitness, not that its ever easy, but you have no gauge.

Ill be staying with Iconoclasm and we will get some odds on him for a while....

A stay-away day at Flemington in hindsight Wadda.  Can't remember the last time we had a heavy track there either. 

Rosehill raced better but only got the one winner there so an average day.  Not much better with my exacta strategy as well!

Gator's tips are now available on the Sky Racing app (but you have to wait until Saturday mornings) His tips now encompass Melb,  Syd,  Adel & Bris.

He tipped 2 winners in both Syd & Melb despite having a lean day overall.  Often gets 3 winners per meeting so definitely worth following.  Gets a lot of placings as well (with his value picks)

If I get time I'll post up his & JJ's tips (here) but I am very busy at work on Saturday's these days.

Edited by Macca
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BB

Saturday Caulfield Race 9 Number 6

Miss Iano $5.50

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BB

Saturday Caulfied Race 7 No 1

Fundamentalist Plc $2.00

 

My long term pick for the Melbourne Cup Master of Illusion $17.00   Lloyd Williams, JOBrien, Frankel

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Best Bet

Saturday Caulfield Race 8 No.11

Mystic Journey $2.20 (Win)

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Best bet Caulfield race 2 no 1 torjoy (apologies for late post)

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, binman said:

Best bet Caulfield race 2 no 1 torjoy (apologies for late post)

Thanks Bin......try and get em in a bit earlier this year Bin, that way i can include them in the group bet post....not 22 mins before the jump! :)

 

Best Bets:

Caulfield race 2 no 1 Torjoy  $4.60 (Win)

Caulfied Race 7 No 1  Fundamentalist  $2.00 (Plc)

Caulfield Race 8 No.11  Mystic Journey $2.20 (Win)

Caulfield Race 9 Number 6 Miss Iano $5.50 (Win)

Good afternoon Punters The 4 BBs posted above will get you approx 111/1 .....a very lucky number!!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Wadda We Sing
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Playing for a leaders track, which often seems to be the cause early spring at Caulfield. Race one gives me some confidence I've pulled the right rein

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I have a tip late mail from a friend of the owner of Falaise. Its an owners friends tip, so take that how you will.....won its last race at the provincials and it is apparently up to this. $26.00 & $6.50

Caulfield Race 6 No 11.

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1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

I have a tip late mail from a friend of the owner of Falaise. Its an owners friends tip, so take that how you will.....won its last race at the provincials and it is apparently up to this. $26.00 & $6.50

Caulfield Race 6 No 11.

Unlucky Wadda, couldn’t get a run at all. She had plenty to give to the line and finished well. One to definitely watch.

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Posted (edited)

2 from 2 here ... way too late for BM's Toryjoy tip.

No worry anyway as the treble gets up if DZ's pick (Miss Iano) salutes.  Got about 37-1 too so good odds.

Good run from Fundamentalist Wadda and my default mode of the class preference came through with the mighty Mystic Journey.  A real good horse.

Edited by Macca
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So far so good today, with all picks winning or running a place........

What a great win by Mystic Journey and im sure will become a DATR special...

No pressure DZ....no pressure... :)

 

 

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Close but no cigar fellas!

Still,  the 2 bankers with a value pick or 2 makes the multi a worthwhile exercise.

Even 3 bankers with 1 value runner has merit. 

All 3 or 4 picks being bankers often doesn't give enough value.  And 1 of those 3 or 4 nearly always misses.

That's how multi's work.  🙄

I like the Miss Iano type pick but it's a matter of identifying something that can get into the finish (which brings the place option in - as a saver)

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Posted (edited)

Shall we do a wrap?

I think that was a pretty good start. I think we should look at last weeks as a practice match, JLT Cup....

So we are  4:1.1.2 ?

I had 3 for the place with Mystic for a win, multi so i did ok. As soon as i saw Grey Shadow in the mounting yard, i said oh look out for that and pmd DZ just that! Nevermind, closer than the Dees got.

Some great runs and a few pointers so far. Godolphin had how many runners in the 5th? Guess we have to watch out for them early i think.....thoughts anyone?

Edited by Wadda We Sing
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48 minutes ago, Macca said:

Close but no cigar fellas!

Still,  the 2 bankers with a value pick or 2 makes the multi a worthwhile exercise.

Even 3 bankers with 1 value runner has merit. 

All 3 or 4 picks being bankers often doesn't give enough value.  And 1 of those 3 or 4 nearly always misses.

That's how multi's work.  🙄

I like the Miss Iano type pick but it's a matter of identifying something that can get into the finish (which brings the place option in - as a saver)

I think what your saying here Macca is that....there are known knowns and there are known unknowns......now when the unknown knowns also come into play as well, then we really have problems.....thus is Spring Racing...

:)

 

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26 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Shall we do a wrap?

I think that was a pretty good start. I think we should look at last weeks as a practice match, JLT Cup....

So we are  4:1.1.2 ?

I had 3 for the place with Mystic for a win, multi so i did ok. As soon as i saw Grey Shadow in the mounting yard, i said oh look out for that and pmd DZ just that! Nevermind, closer than the Dees got.

Some great runs and a few pointers so far. Godolphin had how many runners in the 5th? Guess we have to watch out for them early i think.....thoughts anyone?

James Cummings & Godolphin could and quite possibly will dominate both carnivals

Can't ignore class and Godolphin only keep the top raters.  Gator left Exhilerates out of his first4 in the Quesette Stakes but I was stunned as to why? Another Cummings horse

And Bivouac was absolutely supreme in the Vain Stakes.  Won by 4.5 lengths.  Wow!  Cummings again.

Begood Toya Mother just keeps winning in impressive fashion.  Tip against it at your peril.

And as previously stated,  Mystic Journey is an absolute gem. 

Up in Sydney 'Wolfe' won well and 'Girl Tuesday' may be back to her best again. 

The focus switches to Randwick next Saturday with 5 group races including the Group 1 Winx Stakes over the 7 furlongs.

I'll post up the early odds for the Winx Stakes later on along with the link to the group races. 

And I agree Wadda ... this week is a better time to start recording the Best Bet strike rate

4: 2 - 1 - 1 though as Fundamentalist 'acted' as a win.  Place bankers should be recorded as a win if they run a place yeah (?)

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1 minute ago, Macca said:

James Cummings & Godolphin could and quite possibly will dominate both carnivals

Can't ignore class and Godolphin only keep the top raters.  Gator left Exhilerates out of his first4 in the Quesette Stakes but I was stunned as to why? Another Cummings horse

And Bivouac was absolutely supreme in the Vain Stakes.  Won by 4.5 lengths.  Wow!  Cummings again.

Begood Toya Mother just keeps winning in impressive fashion.  Tip against it at your peril.

And as previously stated,  Mystic Journey is an absolute gem. 

Up in Sydney 'Wolfe' won well and 'Girl Tuesday' may be back to her best again. 

The focus switches to Randwick next Saturday with 5 group races including the Group 1 Winx Stakes over the 7 furlongs.

I'll post up the early odds for the Winx Stakes later on along with the link to the group races. 

And I agree Wadda ... this week is a better time to start recording the Best Bet strike rate

4: 2 - 1 - 1 though as Fundamentalist 'acted' as a win.  Place bankers should be recorded as a win if they run a place yeah (?)

Great summary Macca. Perfect. Bookmark it and we can go back and look later.

Yes thats a very good point actually re Fundamentalist. Im not thinking.....yes its a win for us. I took the place option as i wasnt sure re fitness and there was a bit of rain around which can always throw up a surprise at Caulfield.

I had a mate get the trifecta in the Mystic Journey race......it only paid $38.00 which is a little on the low side, but i guess the big pools are not here yet.

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Best Bet Strike Rate

4: 2 - 1 - 1

Australian Group Races Calendar

And here is the early market for the first Group 1 race for the season - next Saturday (Randwick)  The race is a much more interesting affair with the absence of Winx but that's horse racing for you and certainly no knock on the wonder mare.  Winx of course was arguably the best ever but there's nothing like a bit of competition.

Not sure we've seen Avilius vs Alizee before but I stand corrected on that.  It will be interesting to see how 'Kolding' goes up against this sort of company too.  Big step up in class.  We should see a top class field assembled all the same.

image.thumb.png.fbac2bf794a24b216dae85370ab74d48.png

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Posted (edited)
On 8/17/2019 at 10:51 PM, Macca said:

Best Bet Strike Rate

4: 2 - 1 - 1

Australian Group Races Calendar

And here is the early market for the first Group 1 race for the season - next Saturday (Randwick)  The race is a much more interesting affair with the absence of Winx but that's horse racing for you and certainly no knock on the wonder mare.  Winx of course was arguably the best ever but there's nothing like a bit of competition.

Not sure we've seen Avilius vs Alizee before but I stand corrected on that.  It will be interesting to see how 'Kolding' goes up against this sort of company too.  Big step up in class.  We should see a top class field assembled all the same.

image.thumb.png.fbac2bf794a24b216dae85370ab74d48.png

Theyre all such good horses....look at Youngstar right down the bottom at 21. Thats 1 tough 1400m race.

Thats an excellent strike rate Macca. :)

 

Edited by Wadda We Sing
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1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Theyre all such good horses....look at Youngstar right down the bottom at 21. Thats 1 tough 1400m race.

Thats an excellent strike rate Macca. :)

The Group 1 races are great ... I was initially drawn to the 'Sport of Kings' by the best of the best racing against each other.  I go back as far as Vain & Rain Lover Wadda so the history is steeped.  Jimmy Johnson was always my favourite jockey. 

Better still when they are good betting races.  The overseas stuff is terrific too mainly because the standouts often win.  Good for the all-ups.  I followed Dettori in our Winter and had some good collects.

But in Oz we see keen,  competitive racing in the Group racing.  And it's even better because we can have a small wager on the outcomes. Bet small to win reasonably well is my motto.  And expendable income only. 

NSW upping the ante with regards to high stakes races is good for us punters too.  The good horses being more prevalent.  Bigger pools and better odds.  Bring it on!

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Best Bet

Saturday Randwick Race 7 No.1 

Avilius (Win) $3.70

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Best Bet

Saturday Moonee Valley

Race 7 Number 1

Hightail $3.60 Win

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Best Bet:

Saturday Morphetville

Race 7 Number 1

Tan Tat Trusting $2.00 Place

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Posted (edited)

Best Bets:

Saturday Randwick Race 7 Number 1 Avilius 3.70 Win

Saturday Morphetville  Race 7 Number 1 Tan Tat Trusting $2.00 Place

Saturday Moonee Valley Race 7 Number 1 Hightail $3.60 Win

Might need 3 tvs to watch, but around 26/1 this week. Good luck punters

 

 

Edited by Wadda We Sing
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32 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Best Bets:

Saturday Randwick Race 7 Number 1 Avilius 3.70 Win

Saturday Morphetville  Race 7 Number 1 Tan Tat Trusting $2.00 Place

Saturday Moonee Valley Race 7 Number 1 Hightail $3.60 Win

Might need 3 tvs to watch, but around 26/1 this week. Good luck punters

Like the 3 choices for the multi this week Wadda ... I often end up using BM's choice in an exotic bet.

Really looking forward to the Winx Stakes too.  There are any number of the runners in the race that can get into the finish so the Tri and/or F4 could pay well

I'll post up some replays of the Group 1's from the York carnival (UK) later on.  'Enable' won again of course and is now set for a crack at a 3rd Arc de Triomphe. 

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