A Day at the Races

[binman 37,748]

3 hours ago, Macca said:

Yeah that was me misreading someone's post again ... my excuse is I was a bit punch-drunk and reeling back in horror when Gatting kept going!

Either that or the Norm Smith curse has infiltrated the racing thread on this site. 

And I got the race 9 exacta with Mosh Music & Royal Ace.  I had Mosh Music marked 2nd so the $13 on offer seemed way overs.  The Mare sure knows how to win ... 7 from 10 now which is a great record.  A black booker BM

 

That exacta must have paid well. The wining record is what jumped off the page for me. Winners win.

I actually ended up backing Scales of Justice (with a saver on Humidor) in that race. 2.20 in such a big field just worries me a little as the more horses the more bad luck can come into play or things pop up. But Gatting? Please. Must be one of the longest prices in group race in vic for many a year. Can't remember one longer actually.

[Macca 16,173]

1 minute ago, binman said:

That exacta must have paid well. The wining record is what jumped off the page for me. Winners win.

I actually ended up backing Scales of Justice (with a saver on Humidor) in that race. 2.20 in such a big field just worries me a little as the more horses the more bad luck can come into play or things pop up. But Gatting? Please. Must be one of the longest prices in group race in vic for many a year. Can't remember one longer actually.

Harlem was 66-1 when it won the Australian cup but then won the same race again earlier this year at 30-1

They went around quick too in today's Makybe Diva Stakes (01:33.97 for the mile)  Quite a good field too.  Anyway,  close on half a million to the connections and Gatting has now won nearly 2 million.

Maybe the Perth form is better than we regard it as. Another WA Mare Arcadia Queen did it easy today although the field in the 'Theo Marks' wasn't strong.  Again,  another slick time (01:14.96 for the 1300m) 

I thought we might have seen the W.A galloper Galaxy Star over here as well as that horse has beaten Gatting twice recently.  Retired now and is heading for a visit with 'Justify' in the USA.

They are racing for a lot of money in the Spring carnival these days (NSW racing has made a quantum leap more recently) so Bob Peters and co are now bringing their better horses here.  'Enticing Star' should be stepping out soon (most likely in Sydney)

[Dee Zephyr 17,302]

Missed the second part of the day’s racing, managed to listen to the ‘Makybe’ in the car. Missed out on a decent collect too, will try and catch some replays later, one thing I took out of the call was hearing ‘Mr Quickie’ flash home for 3rd. Could be a serious player for the Cups and I see he’s favourite for the Caulfield Cup. 

[Macca 16,173]

2 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Missed the second part of the day’s racing, managed to listen to the ‘Makybe’ in the car. Missed out on a decent collect too, will try and catch some replays later, one thing I took out of the call was hearing ‘Mr Quickie’ flash home for 3rd. Could be a serious player for the Cups and I see he’s favourite for the Caulfield Cup. 

Excellent run by Mr Quickie ... beat a number of good horses home at WFA level.  I believe it's virtually guaranteed a run in the Melbourne Cup too (30th in order of entry)  Carrying 52.5kg unless it gets penalised further.

In other Melbourne Cup news ... last year's 3 placegetters are all returning for the race.  Cross Counter (57.5kgs),  Marmelo (56kgs) & Prince of Arron (53kgs)

The race is now a 'Quality Hcp' as opposed to being a straight handicap these days DZ.   As well as being run as a truly International race.

The weight scale is usually ranging from 57.5kgs down to 51kgs in more recent times.  Previously the scale would be much wider (61kgs down to 47kgs)

[binman 37,748]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Excellent run by Mr Quickie ... beat a number of good horses home at WFA level.  I believe it's virtually guaranteed a run in the Melbourne Cup too (30th in order of entry)  Carrying 52.5kg unless it gets penalised further.

In other Melbourne Cup news ... last year's 3 placegetters are all returning for the race.  Cross Counter (57.5kgs),  Marmelo (56kgs) & Prince of Arron (53kgs)

The race is now a 'Quality Hcp' as opposed to being a straight handicap these days DZ.   As well as being run as a truly International race.

The weight scale is usually ranging from 57.5kgs down to 51kgs in more recent times.  Previously the scale would be much wider (61kgs down to 47kgs)

Good points. Certainly now favours European 3 year olds. Getting very hard to win at the top of the weight range with some many good young horses nearer the bottom of the scale

[Macca 16,173]

5 hours ago, binman said:

Good points. Certainly now favours European 3 year olds. Getting very hard to win at the top of the weight range with some many good young horses nearer the bottom of the scale

Yes true ... and as the race becomes an even greater prize for the Internationals they might end up closing the loop-hole for those 3yo European horses.

Once there isn't the need for the lure of all things European,  they may well turn the focus onto more local representation.  Of course we don't exactly breed stayers here but European horses left here under the care of local trainers soon become our own.  Adopted that way. 

It can't be turned into a race solely for 3yo European horses and the VRC would be fully aware of that.  For now,  it's fine,  but I reckon the loophole will be closed once it looks like it might be getting out of hand.   3yo's properly weighted as 4yo's would add a few kilo's thus evening the score.

In the meantime local trainers will continue to look for European 2yo staying types to purchase.  But they don't come cheap as those selling know there's quite a reasonable demand.

We just have to get used to the fact that the race is a truly international one and local punters need to learn how to read overseas form.  With a heavy accent on Group form - Wins & Places.  Forget times.  Just horses that perform well at mainly G1 & G2 level.  And then those dropping down to lightweights are the absolute standouts (such as Rekindling & Cross Counter)

[Macca 16,173]

Best Bet

Saturday Caulfield Race 7

(Win) No.14 Begood Toya Mother $4.00

 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

On 9/15/2019 at 6:14 PM, Macca said:

Yes true ... and as the race becomes an even greater prize for the Internationals they might end up closing the loop-hole for those 3yo European horses.

Once there isn't the need for the lure of all things European,  they may well turn the focus onto more local representation.  Of course we don't exactly breed stayers here but European horses left here under the care of local trainers soon become our own.  Adopted that way. 

It can't be turned into a race solely for 3yo European horses and the VRC would be fully aware of that.  For now,  it's fine,  but I reckon the loophole will be closed once it looks like it might be getting out of hand.   3yo's properly weighted as 4yo's would add a few kilo's thus evening the score.

In the meantime local trainers will continue to look for European 2yo staying types to purchase.  But they don't come cheap as those selling know there's quite a reasonable demand.

We just have to get used to the fact that the race is a truly international one and local punters need to learn how to read overseas form.  With a heavy accent on Group form - Wins & Places.  Forget times.  Just horses that perform well at mainly G1 & G2 level.  And then those dropping down to lightweights are the absolute standouts (such as Rekindling & Cross Counter)

I always like to take a few Cups chances early doors, and put the tickets on the fridge with the magnet. I love the early odds you can get as compared to raceday. Plus it gives you a few to follow through the various lead up races. I always follow Lloyd and never leave out a few of his. He knows what hes doing and his whole stable aims at the Melbourne Cup. I used to live not far from Macedon, and quite often the strappers and other staff from the lodge, have been known to frequent the local establishments in early November and are never shy about their thoughts on the big race. One year the entire pub was on Green Moon!

I see that Cross Counter was 4th in the 2800m Irish St Ledger, with the Williams owned Master of Reality a short head away 5th in the race, won by Irish trainer Dermot Welds 3 year old Galileo filly Search for a Song, who got all the weight allowances and led from the 1400m mark. Williams 2 other runners Latrobe & Twilight Payment were 6th and 7th. Southern France who came 3rd will be trained by Ciaron Maher.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Best Bet:

Saturday Caulfield Race 3 No 9 Maktabba (W) $6.00

[Dee Zephyr 17,302]

Saturday Best

Randwick Race 9

9. Prime Candidate (W) $4.20

[JV7 2,339]

On 9/18/2019 at 11:19 PM, Macca said:

Best Bet

Saturday Caulfield Race 7

(Win) No.14 Begood Toya Mother $4.00

 

A bloke I work with mates part own Begood Toya Mother & told me on Monday to load up.  Has been primed for Saturday, they are very very confident. 

[Macca 16,173]

3 hours ago, JV7 said:

A bloke I work with mates part own Begood Toya Mother & told me on Monday to load up.  Has been primed for Saturday, they are very very confident. 

Up against some very good horses but is in great form,  is lightly weighted and Gator has picked it as well! 

 

[binman 37,748]

What a brutal day at caulfield. Som many chances in each race. Tough at Randwick too. Some cracking races.

History suggests  Begood Toya Mother a huge chance as horses down in the weight historically do well in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes day. He is down a wopping 7kgs on his last run.

I've actually done my form, early for me. Not quite sure of my best yes. Will post it tonight

 

 

[binman 37,748]

My best is an old best bet fav.

Randwick Race 7 no 2 avilius. 

On face value a bit dour last start but samadoubt had t h e advantage of a leaders bias. At the weights and in the heavy I'm tipping it will bounce back.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

57 minutes ago, binman said:

My best is an old best bet fav.

Randwick Race 7 no 2 avilius. 

On face value a bit dour last start but samadoubt had t h e advantage of a leaders bias. At the weights and in the heavy I'm tipping it will bounce back.

Thanks Bin. Well done on getting your best in early. I will now include it in our best multi. Next time can you include the price as well, just saves me looking it up thats all. Also for our massive audience of followers.....

 

Edited September 20, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

Saturday Best Bets:

Randwick Race 7 No 2 Avilius (W)  $3.20

Caulfield Race 3 No 9 Maktabba (W) $6.00

Caulfield Race 7  No.14 Begood Toya Mother (W) $4.00

Randwick Race 9 No 9 Prime Candidate (W) $4.20

This weeks best multi 322/1 approx for the 4 winners.....Do ya feel lucky punks?!

Go Team.

 

Edited September 20, 2019 by Wadda We Sing

[Macca 16,173]

23 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Thanks Bin. Well done on getting your best in early. I will now include it in our best multi. Next time can you include the price as well, just saves me looking it up thats all. Also for our massive audience of followers.....

Well the thread has had 77,450 views which is quite a substantial number Wadda.

And there are a number of punters on 'land ... every now and again a poster will make a reference to the races. 

I've been a bit busy lately so have neglected to update the strike rate,  post up video replays,  feature stories and the Wednesday evening preview.

I'll get back into the swing of things soon enough.  The race replays especially are fun to look back on in terms of historical purposes.  Before you know it,  we'll be 5 years down the track on this thread.  10 years is merely a blink of an eyelid away! haha

[Macca 16,173]

1 hour ago, Wadda We Sing said:

Saturday Best Bets:

Randwick Race 7 No 2 Avilius (W)  $3.20

Caulfield Race 3 No 9 Maktabba (W) $6.00

Caulfield Race 7  No.14 Begood Toya Mother (W) $4.00

Randwick Race 9 No 9 Prime Candidate (W) $4.20

This weeks best multi 322/1 approx for the 4 winners.....Do ya feel lucky punks?!

Go Team.

Gotta be worth the price of a coffee at those odds.  I've included all our picks in various small bets.

I've got Avilius going in a few things as I reckon it's a good thing (good choice BM)

The 3 others all have good claims.  Avilius winning with the other 3 (for the place) is showing 20-1.  Saver bet.

[Macca 16,173]

2 hours ago, binman said:

My best is an old best bet fav.

Randwick Race 7 no 2 avilius. 

On face value a bit dour last start but samadoubt had t h e advantage of a leaders bias. At the weights and in the heavy I'm tipping it will bounce back.

I studied up hard on the heavy/soft form for the meeting at Randwick and am quietly confident of getting some value collects

Exacta's mainly with a few win bets courtesy of some bonus bets from Laddies.  I marked Avilius at about 2.60 but 3.50 is available.  Nice choice at decent odds BM. 

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

Well the thread has had 77,450 views which is quite a substantial number Wadda.

And there are a number of punters on 'land ... every now and again a poster will make a reference to the races. 

I've been a bit busy lately so have neglected to update the strike rate,  post up video replays,  feature stories and the Wednesday evening preview.

I'll get back into the swing of things soon enough.  The race replays especially are fun to look back on in terms of historical purposes.  Before you know it,  we'll be 5 years down the track on this thread.  10 years is merely a blink of an eyelid away! haha

.....its probably the punting police from the site Macca ! Wondering how such an outrageous thread could possibly exist......lock up the kids!

[Macca 16,173]

33 minutes ago, Wadda We Sing said:

.....its probably the punting police from the site Macca ! Wondering how such an outrageous thread could possibly exist......lock up the kids!

Gambling often gets a bad rap but most I know are quite responsible with punting.  I relate betting on the horses to the grog.  Do it all responsibly I say. 

Next weekend we've got arguably the biggest 3 days of racing about ... GF weekend sees a total of 16 Group races at Moonee Valley (Friday night - Moir St),  Rosehill (Sat arvo - Golden Rose St) & Caulfield (Sunday arvo - Underwood St) 

Usually we see the Epsom Hcp & the Metropolitan Hcp on GF weekend but both those races are on the week after (along with the big Turnbull Stakes Day meeting).

Lots of great racing where we see the best of best up against each other.  The sport of Kings!

[binman 37,748]

3 hours ago, Macca said:

I studied up hard on the heavy/soft form for the meeting at Randwick and am quietly confident of getting some value collects

Exacta's mainly with a few win bets courtesy of some bonus bets from Laddies.  I marked Avilius at about 2.60 but 3.50 is available.  Nice choice at decent odds BM. 

In some ways I don't mind the heavy in Sydney. You can draw a line through a lot of horses. And some really like the going. Melbourne tracks drain better and never get as heavy, meaning form in wet is much more variable. Hate getting rolled by a horse on say a soft 5 that has no wet form.

Agree avilius is overs Macca. Likes heavy and should sit a bit closer I reckon. Has the ratings to win and the only danger i reckon is tbe kiwi horse  danz something.

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

9 minutes ago, binman said:

In some ways I don't mind the heavy in Sydney. You can draw a line through a lot of horses. And some really like the going. Melbourne tracks drain better and never get as heavy, meaning form in wet is much more variable. Hate getting rolled by a horse on say a soft 5 that has no wet form.

Agree avilius is overs Macca. Likes heavy and should sit a bit closer I reckon. Has the ratings to win and the only danger i reckon is tbe kiwi horse  danz something.

Theyre all pretty good picks i reckon Bin, and they should all be in with a reasonable chance. Your Sydney argument is solid. Always intrigues me what people select and its often very insightful.

[Macca 16,173]

15 hours ago, binman said:

In some ways I don't mind the heavy in Sydney. You can draw a line through a lot of horses. And some really like the going. Melbourne tracks drain better and never get as heavy, meaning form in wet is much more variable. Hate getting rolled by a horse on say a soft 5 that has no wet form.

Agree avilius is overs Macca. Likes heavy and should sit a bit closer I reckon. Has the ratings to win and the only danger i reckon is tbe kiwi horse  danz something.

And Avilius duly wins ... great finishing burst and a class above.  Had it going in a couple of bets so a nice collect.

And without Winx involved,  Avilius looks a real chance for the Cox Plate.

The Cox Plate will be a much more open event though especially with Mystic Journey likely to run as well as a few other top fancies.

[Gorgoroth 12,305]

Be good toya mother salutes. Age of Chivalry runs well.

Thansk for the tip on BGTM ?