POST MATCH DISCUSSION - Round 18

[Willmoy1947 3,769]

1 hour ago, beelzebub said:

It's that these games could have been won.

The north game was the closest to a win imho as they were right in it. Had the team not faded at times it was there for the taking. The Hawks game really only needed someone to take it by the scruff and will it over the line. The Weagles game was winnable if someone had decided enough was enough and kicked a bloody goal.

All 3 games were lost between the ears.

Yep, crucial next 5 games our season improvement or not, however, in those games i'll be looking at two players in particular as being of more value Jayden Hunt and Petracca, to me possibly more value next year with our style than a Hogan or Macdonald. Big call eh?

[Demon Dynasty 15,369]

Negatives

• In the fist quarter we dominated possession but in some cases hacked the ball or chose to kick it down the line straight to a loose eagles player waiting a kick behind play (Dawes)
• In the first/second we failed to pull the trigger coming around the wing often enough when the opportunity was there. Either due to lack of confidence in kicking ability or lack of vision, instead kicking down the line to a contest.
• Our backs were great when ball was hitting the deck. Ie., cleaning up, with the exception of Omac. Not so good with long balls deep to a one on one and being isolated. What we gain on the attack we lose in true defence. Ie., being able to beat or nuetralise your opponent much of the time in a marking or pack contest with a long ball coming in. OMac the biggest offender here costing us 2 goals in the first beaten easily both times in the marking contest. He also continues to miss or choose incorrect targets up the field. To me Omac is an easy swap out for Dunn here. Dunn will do just as much in attack and neutralise a little more often in the contest. Omac is at least 2 pre-seasons away from coping at this level physically. He has a teen bod which is way off AFL standard in a contest at this point.
• No contested marks i50 by our key talls with the exception of one from Dawes. No assists from any! All Key tall/medium forwards were pretty ordinary with Watts/Hogan both ineffective on the scoreboard.
• The Jones Boy, Tyson, Kent and Viney are all fairly ordinary with ball use in general and rarely impact the scoreboard. Kent occasionaly has a cameo when playing more of a forward role. Clarry doesn't impact enough when he receives on the outside at times but is a mile ahead of these 3 with his inside work. Much cleaner/smarter ball user. We will see a big improvement once he becomes a regular inclusion. The sooner the better.
• Kent falls/slips over way too often for my liking placing pressure on many of his disposals. The disposals after he slips are less effective as a result.
• Wagner's horrible kick coming off HB in the first resulting in the Eagles 2nd goal (i think) to Priddis. Wagner another clanger off HB in the last straight to Butler. Clean it up fellas (Tmac/Wagner this week!) and give yourselves a chance! If you can't do so please go back to Casey and work it out. Dunn & Garland are hitting short targets more often now albeit it is only VFL. Still, time to bring them in and instruct the others where they need to improve! Dunn & Garlo can also be bad but can't be any worse. Lets see if they have improved!
• As if the free against Dom wasn't bad enough people forget......The first Goal to the Eagles was the result of a blatant throw in a tackle and should have been free kicked by the umpires with no goal resulting.
• We are ball deestroyers most of the time (not in every case) coming i50 with very few players able to hit targets or kick to advantage often enough. This includes but not limited to, Nev, the Jones Boy, Kent, Harmes, Gus, Dawes, Tyson, ANB and Stretch (going down the line with 11:00 to go in the last instead of deeper towards the hot spot....Dawes alone around there!). You can have as many i50 entries as you like. While you continue to murder the ball as often as we do it is, in the majority of cases, a complete waste of all prior effort off HB or out of the middle. We gift the ball back to their backs (and +1s) and and we are defending again. ANB ,the Jones boy and Frost a few exceptions hitting targets i50. When the opponent is often playing a +1 down back this is even more critical to avoid the quick rebound and play into their game plan! Tyson's mad bomb after crumbing from a contest with about 12:00 to go in the last a great example. Bombed it to a deep pocket contest instead of the hot spot! An easy Eagles mark to Mackenzie resulted. Alternatively take a few steps and have a ping mate!
• Viney plays on far too often at break neck from marks/free kicks. Needs to assess quickly first and check himself in case there's nothing on. Places himself and others under pressure here often resulting in some costly and unnecessary turnovers. Is this a lack of confidence in his ability to hit short/medium targets from a set kick i wonder? Tends to bomb the ball coming i50 on the run also. Needs to lower eyes, hit more targets and/or kick lower raking longer kicks, closer to the hot spot. Kicks are high with not enough distance falling too short to be effective or for forwards to impact. Our forwards should also become more aware of this when seeing the game unfold and work to the front higher up.
• Our set shot kicks for goal were pretty ordinary most of the time. For god sake practice guys. Shithouse and IMO this ultimately cost us the game!!! Watts (albeit usually on), Stretch, Kent, Dawes. When we recruit this year and next for Lucifer's sake, get some decent set shot kickers and some mids who can kick goals from 50 or just inside also! Matt Jones from 35 to 40 meters couldn't even make the distance on the run. We lack polish, class and some power kickers in and around the paint!
• Gus did some very good work but missed a critical straight forward handball in the 3rd with about 4:30 to go that would have given us a running shot at goal and may have put us 3 goals up with a bit of breathing space. He also gave away a very ordinary free deep in attack with a few minutes to go in the last.
• We were one Key tall short against the Eagles IMO with Dunn being the obvious "in" for Omac to cover Darling and give a chop out to Tmac on Kennedy when possible (and visa versa).
• The Eagles had limited supply but made the most of their limited entries by taking enough contested marks and converting accurately due to our Key Tall backs and other HBs being too easily beaten with the exception of Tmac and Frost.
• The ump paying a 50 against Vince for trying to get Licenth (or whatever his name is) off him after the ridiculous holding the ball decision with 3 min to go in the 3rd. Then giving 60 meters or so! Amazing bias or incompetence. The Fake "legs taken out from under" by Darling on Watts in a critical contest at the 11:20 mark in the last. Can't believe the umps and commentators fell for it, including Derm. Clever play by Darling though. Priddis and Giles both dropping the ball (incorrect disposal) in a stoppage with 9:50 to go in the last not paid...Tracc screaming for the one against Giles or maybe both lol! He can see but four umps couldn't or maybe didn't want to!?? 50 Meters to Mr Vince at the 6:15 mark of the last after being knocked down well after marking....no decision! Almost a certain goal there. All controversial decisions defended by the head of umpiring on AFL's website. The bias runs deep!
• Tmacs horrible turnover rebounding off HB with about 2:30 to go in the 3rd. Goal to Cripps. His turnover to Kennedy, again attempted short pass under no pressure after marking early in the 4th. After nearly 100 games he continues to cost us in the worst parts of the ground and undoes much of his good work. A huge worry for mine given the games under his belt. May not be fixable. Trade consideration?
• Why are we allowing Wagner, a 13 game rookie to take the kick in (or any kick ins!!?) with 5:00 to go and game on the line in the last! Astoundingly poor coaching/on field leadership!??

Positives

• General pressure and tackling on the opponent was probably our best for the year. Our biggest tackling game for the year, the next against Freo.
• Our forward press in the 2nd quarter was on for a long period and again probably the best i've seen over such an extended period of a quarter.
• Stretches spread and ball use is mostly, but not always, first class!
• Great team effort under extreme pressure to clear the ball off HB with 13:00 to go in the last. Finishes with a super short pass from Dawes to Kent on the wing. This is the type of slow play we need at times in order to avoid constant fast play, eventually turning the ball over to their +1 or another HB under extreme pressure when going fast too often, only see it come back over our heads straight away. We need to play this option a little more often and assess before hitting the "go go" button so often.
• Frost's solid last quarter. Was a little quiet at other times but i've been critical of his inability to finish off a game so this was great to see.
• Tracc's great run and decision making plus finish to hit ANB lace out coming through the middle with 9:15 to go in the last. Unfortunately all that good work was yet again undone with ANB having no confidence to kick from 45!? Passed a cheapy off to Gus who off a step or 2 kicked a meek one to the pocket....again. OOB no score! Again we didn't finish. Sorry but had to put this negative in as it's associated with a positive
• Great smother by Watts in the last with 8:00 to go should have resulted in a goal by Kent ot Kent to Dawes for a running goal or set shot. Another point and yet another poor finish.
• Another great smother by Mr Vince shortly after.

Overall

• The bottom line is, for all our efforts and for all the massive supply that was and is given in many matches, we are STILL not potent enough up forward against the better clubs (ie., top 8) in terms of conversion. As much as we have kicked some high scores this year, this remains an unresolved issue. This one should have been a 4 to 5 goal canter IMO had we hit more targets on the lead, targeted the hot spot more often from outside 50 when running in and kicked accurately with set shots & some on the run. That was our worst game up forward efficiency wise this year with 50 disposals per goal and a conversion rate (% inside 50s goal) of only 12%. 

Edited July 30, 2016 by Rusty Nails

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

2 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Viney plays on far too often at break neck from marks/free kicks. Needs to assess quickly first and check himself in case there's nothing on. Places himself and others under pressure here often resulting in some costly and unnecessary turnovers. Is this a lack of confidence in his ability to hit short/medium targets from a set kick i wonder? Tends to bomb the ball coming i50 on the run also. Needs to lower eyes, hit more targets and/or kick lower raking longer kicks, closer to the hot spot. Kicks are high with not enough distance falling too short to be effective or for forwards to impact. Our forwards should also become more aware of this when seeing the game unfold and work to the front higher up.

Not just Viney, the whole team.

[titan_uranus 22,285]

3 hours ago, Rusty Nails said:

Overall

• The bottom line is, for all our efforts and for all the massive supply that was and is given in many matches, we are STILL not potent enough up forward against the better clubs (ie., top 8) in terms of conversion. As much as we have kicked some high scores this year, this remains an unresolved issue. This one should have been a 4 to 5 goal canter IMO had we hit more targets on the lead, targeted the hot spot more often from outside 50 when running in and kicked accurately with set shots & some on the run. That was our worst game up forward efficiency wise this year with 50 disposals per goal and a conversion rate (% inside 50s goal) of only 12%. 

This got me interested in that conversion stat across the year.

Goals from inside 50s as a % in our losses:

• Essendon - 24.4% (compared to 19.6%)
• NM - 31.7% (compared to 41.2%)
• St Kilda - 27.3% (compared to 36.4%)
• Dogs - 25% (compared to 27.9%)
• Port - 18.9% (compared to 33.3%)
• Hawthorn - 20% (compared to 19%)
• Sydney - 8.5% (compared to 23.5%)
• Adelaide - 31.2% (compared to 34%)
• St Kilda - 22% (compared to 25%)
• West Coast - 12.1% (compared to 27%)

Average across the losses is 22.1% (compared to 28.7%).

Compare that to our wins:

• GWS - 21.4% (compared to 20%)
• Collingwood - 28.1% (compared to 16.4%)
• Richmond - 35.5% (compared to 25%)
• GC - 32% (compared to 40%)
• BL - 37.3% (compared to 20%)
• Collingwood - 34% (compared to 16.7%)
• Fremantle - 17.9% (compared to 19.5%)

Average across the wins is 29.5% (compared to 22.5%).

If you take out four games (GWS and Fremantle wins, NM and Adelaide losses) there is a bright line of 27.5% - if we are scoring goals from 27.5% or more of our inside 50s, we win, if not we lose.

I guess it raises a chicken/egg question (i.e. are we losing because of low conversion or does low conversion come from being outplayed), but one of the signs of us being "on" during games is when we look dangerous inside 50, and that almost always arises when we kick goals every time we go inside.

48 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Not just Viney, the whole team.

So you don't like it when we play on, but you also don't like it when we take our time to assess options after a mark/free kick?

Viney is trying to keep our ball movement pace up. I'd rather consistent mistakes arising from playing on than consistent mistakes arising from being too slow.

Edited July 30, 2016 by titan_uranus

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Just now, titan_uranus said:

So you don't like it when we play on, but you also don't like it when we take our time to assess options after a mark/free kick?

Viney is trying to keep our ball movement pace up. I'd rather consistent mistakes arising from playing on than consistent mistakes arising from being too slow.

I don't like our poor decision making from a mark or free kick.

[beelzebub 22,225]

TU...often we look dangerous in the arc though it seems we often fall in a hole in the last qtr. Is this young legs ? 

All in all is say the amount of scoreboard pressure is directly affected by whether we're being outplayed or not.

Often the answer is the simplest

[Demon Dynasty 15,369]

On 7/30/2016 at 2:53 PM, titan_uranus said:

This got me interested in that conversion stat across the year.

Goals from inside 50s as a % in our losses:

• Essendon - 24.4% (compared to 19.6%)
• NM - 31.7% (compared to 41.2%)
• St Kilda - 27.3% (compared to 36.4%)
• Dogs - 25% (compared to 27.9%)
• Port - 18.9% (compared to 33.3%)
• Hawthorn - 20% (compared to 19%)
• Sydney - 8.5% (compared to 23.5%)
• Adelaide - 31.2% (compared to 34%)
• St Kilda - 22% (compared to 25%)
• West Coast - 12.1% (compared to 27%)

Average across the losses is 22.1% (compared to 28.7%).

Compare that to our wins:

• GWS - 21.4% (compared to 20%)
• Collingwood - 28.1% (compared to 16.4%)
• Richmond - 35.5% (compared to 25%)
• GC - 32% (compared to 40%)
• BL - 37.3% (compared to 20%)
• Collingwood - 34% (compared to 16.7%)
• Fremantle - 17.9% (compared to 19.5%)

Average across the wins is 29.5% (compared to 22.5%).

If you take out four games (GWS and Fremantle wins, NM and Adelaide losses) there is a bright line of 27.5% - if we are scoring goals from 27.5% or more of our inside 50s, we win, if not we lose.

I guess it raises a chicken/egg question (i.e. are we losing because of low conversion or does low conversion come from being outplayed), but one of the signs of us being "on" during games is when we look dangerous inside 50, and that almost always arises when we kick goals every time we go inside.

So you don't like it when we play on, but you also don't like it when we take our time to assess options after a mark/free kick?

Viney is trying to keep our ball movement pace up. I'd rather consistent mistakes arising from playing on than consistent mistakes arising from being too slow.

It could also be what parts of the ground players are leading to or where guys up the field are kicking the ball to when running towards goal T.

I've noticed alot of our good work up the field tends to end up going deep into a pocket much of the time instead of going more often to the hot zone.

We need to sort this out. No doubt decoy leads are going to head into pockets at times but that doesn't mean we should be going there so often. Surely someone is also heading into space in a hotter area of the forward line. Even if it's a Hogan being double teamed, get one or 2 front and square and feed off the crumbs more often. Pocket play success is obviously low percentage and should also therefore be a low % 'go to' option (unless we had Stevie J or Eddie!)

On 7/30/2016 at 4:18 PM, beelzebub said:

TU...often we look dangerous in the arc though it seems we often fall in a hole in the last qtr. Is this young legs ? 

All in all is say the amount of scoreboard pressure is directly affected by whether we're being outplayed or not.

Often the answer is the simplest

Probably a combination of fatigue and kicking skills/power (timing?) not quite up to par depending on the player guys.

Like if you take some of Tracc's work out and away from stoppages, he breaks tackles, then runs hard but is still capable of hitting targets going i50 quite often. Others do similar eg., Viney/Jones boy/Tyson but their %s of hitting those leads or kicking to the favoured side of guys running into space is probably not up there.

I would agree with BZ here in that in some cases more pre-seasons should technically help when running towards 50 or goal and shooting. But at the same time some just might not be talented enough or powerful enough to finish, no matter how much work they put in. If their kicking style isn't great or they don't have enough power then it's all for nothing. I would put Matty Jones in the power category here. Nice silky skills but how often do we see Matty (or any of our mids or mid/forwards for that matter) break a tackle and kick a long raking goal from somewhere around the paint? Vince is probably one of the rare ones who can do so from the give off set play although he hasn't been so effective at this of late either unfortunately.

Also some of our set shot work, outside of Watts, can be pretty ordinary at times. Maybe we need to put further work into set shot techniques as well. Fatigue obviously plays a part here also and this might be worse when up against better opposition who are making us work harder in general play.

Looks easy from back here. It's a super tough running game and all that heavy inside work would also take a big toll as the game wears on.

Another pre -season and the injection of a few more senior quality players, who can kick effectively on both sides, should see us take the next step up. Roos & Co. have done a super job to get us to this point given where were coming from.

Edited July 31, 2016 by Rusty Nails