MATCH PREVIEW AND TEAM SELECTION - Round 16

[P-man 13,154]

Just now, stuie said:

"Poita" mentioned above he heard that one of the McDonald's is going to play forward... Not sure that is any better

 

T Mac would be better. Whether we can afford to take him out of the backline at an early stage in the game is another matter.

[dazzledavey36 48,647]

25 minutes ago, poita said:

 

The club has said that one of the McDonalds will play forward this week, so we can cover Watts going in to the ruck.

 

Really? Where did you hear that from?

If correct you would think Oscar goes forward as Tom goes to Pavlich, Frost to Mayne. But then again Oscar would be the perfect match up for Taberner.

[stuie 7,374]

Just now, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I missed that, will have a read through. Whilst Frost is making some mistakes he is also doing some good things. He needs to be left there to settle and develop his game, he's still young and raw. 

I agree, I really liked his attitude last week, seemed to have bought in to the "play on at all costs" game plan and did it with minimum fuss or head dropping when it didn't work out.

But the thought of a backline without TMac, or a forward line with OMac is a bit of a concern...

[stuie 7,374]

2 minutes ago, P-man said:

T Mac would be better. Whether we can afford to take him out of the backline at an early stage in the game is another matter.

Yeah that's my point. TMac out of that backline leaves us with Jetta and a bunch of kids. Not ideal.

 

[stuie 7,374]

9 hours ago, AdamFphlebeb said:

I'd say it'll be greasy. Going one less tall will suit us. Dropping Dawes is partly tactical I reckon.

Forecast is 21-32. 0% chance of rain and 51% humidity.

Doesn't seem that greasy?

 

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

Happy with the ins and outs but I would still rather Dunn ahead of O-Mac for this game.

Is the perfect size and matchup for Pavlich and the role given could have really been a simplified lockdown one that would suit Dunn's limitations. At his best as a defender, he has been very effective and I can't understand why he is still out of the side.

We have been leaking goal simply because O-Mac and Frost are in the side and Tom takes it upon himself to do things he shouldn't simply because the support is not there.

I don't understand it frankly. Dunn has been out of favour pretty much all year, and nobody knows why. Usually when ex-leaders and really experienced players are made to play ressies, they bounce back relatively quickly to play seniors again. Especially when there's an underdeveloped 20 year old who is hardly holding his own taking his position..

It's getting [censored] annoying. 

I know posters think we lost the game last week due to a 'lapse' in the third which might be true. But it wasn't because of the midfield. Watch all of those goals starting in the third and you'll see that we conceded those goals due to a lack of intensity, experience and smarts in the backline. We conceded easy goals from there when we didn't need to.

Pavlich is far too strong, smart and experienced for either one of O-Mac or Frost.

 

[P-man 13,154]

1 minute ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Happy with the ins and outs but I would still rather Dunn ahead of O-Mac for this game.

Is the perfect size and matchup for Pavlich and the role given could have really been a simplified lockdown one that would suit Dunn's limitations. At his best as a defender, he has been very effective and I can't understand why he is still out of the side.

We have been leaking goal simply because O-Mac and Frost are in the side and Tom takes it upon himself to do things he shouldn't simply because the support is not there.

I don't understand it frankly. Dunn has been out of favour pretty much all year, and nobody knows why. Usually when ex-leaders and really experienced players are made to play ressies, they bounce back relatively quickly to play seniors again. Especially when there's an underdeveloped 20 year old who is hardly holding his own taking his position..

It's getting [censored] annoying. 

I know posters think we lost the game last week due to a 'lapse' in the third which might be true. But it wasn't because of the midfield. Watch all of those goals starting in the third and you'll see that we conceded those goals due to a lack of intensity, experience and smarts in the backline. We conceded easy goals from there when we didn't need to.

Pavlich is far too strong, smart and experienced for either one of O-Mac or Frost.

 

Many won't share your frustration, but I do.

The counter argument says that the faster game plan has moved past Dunn's capabilities. Whether or not this is the case, which I'm not so certain it is, he has experience that can be relied upon and a role on Pavlich who has recently shown he still has something left in the tank would've made me feel a lot safer than another week of constant heart in mouth with O Mac.

Neither Dunn or Garland reportedly forced themselves into consideration on the weekend which also works against them, but I doubt it would've made any difference.

[rjay 23,867]

45 minutes ago, stuie said:

Yeah I get that, and as I said my main worry is about when Watts is rucking and we only have 1 forward marking target.

 

Which is what we've had the last few weeks 'stuie'...Dawes is big but not a marking target.

The opposition know this and it's why they zone off to Hogan.

We need to find one, maybe Hullett will get a run before the end of the year...looking at the game on the weekend Weideman is a way off at the moment.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

10 minutes ago, P-man said:

Many won't share your frustration, but I do.

The counter argument says that the faster game plan has moved past Dunn's capabilities. Whether or not this is the case, which I'm not so certain it is, he has experience that can be relied upon and a role on Pavlich who has recently shown he still has something left in the tank would've made me feel a lot safer than another week of constant heart in mouth with O Mac.

Yeh I could understand that given different opposition. But Pav is shot and is slower and less fit than even Dunn. So it's an even match in that sense but the advantage is that Pav won't be able to outbody and out smart someone like Dunn as easily as he would with O-Mac.

Anyway, can't change anything now. But if Pav is allowed to work himself into the game simply because of a matchup, then it's going to be dangerous for us.

 

[stuie 7,374]

2 minutes ago, rjay said:

Which is what we've had the last few weeks 'stuie'...Dawes is big but not a marking target.

The opposition know this and it's why they zone off to Hogan.

We need to find one, maybe Hullett will get a run before the end of the year...looking at the game on the weekend Weideman is a way off at the moment.

But he was still there and required to have a defender on him. I had Hulett in for Dawes as one of my wanted changes this week, and this 1 key forward tactic could backfire, especially given the age and attitude of that 1 forward.

 

[jackaub 1,402]

3 minutes ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Yeh I could understand that given different opposition. But Pav is shot and is slower and less fit than even Dunn. So it's an even match in that sense but the advantage is that Pav won't be able to outbody and out smart someone like Dunn as easily as he would with O-Mac.

Anyway, can't change anything now. But if Pav is allowed to work himself into the game simply because of a matchup, then it's going to be dangerous for us.

 

He will kick 5 or 6 at a guess

[stuie 7,374]

3 minutes ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Yeh I could understand that given different opposition. But Pav is shot and is slower and less fit than even Dunn. So it's an even match in that sense but the advantage is that Pav won't be able to outbody and out smart someone like Dunn as easily as he would with O-Mac.

Anyway, can't change anything now. But if Pav is allowed to work himself into the game simply because of a matchup, then it's going to be dangerous for us.

 

Won't TMac go to Pav?

 

[What 18,810]

8 minutes ago, jackaub said:

He will kick 5 or 6 at a guess

 

No he wont, he is toast and we never get bags kicked against us.  Only one I can recall this season is Membrey kicking 5 and thats not exactly a huge bag.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

7 minutes ago, stuie said:

Won't TMac go to Pav?

 

Perhaps.

But I assumed Tom would go to Taberner, I think that's what has happened that last few times.

They rotate anyway as part of the zone at times so we'll see different matchups throughout the night, (which I also cringe at).

But I'm always [censored] scared when there are players who only need a sniff early on to become dangerous for the entire night.

Pav is one.

[stuie 7,374]

1 minute ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Perhaps.

But I assumed Tom would go to Taberner, I think that's what has happened that last few times.

They rotate anyway as part of the zone at times so we'll see different matchups throughout the night, (which I also cringe at).

But I'm always [censored] scared when there are players who only need a sniff early on to become dangerous for the entire night.

Pav is one.

Yep, we don't have a good recent history against decent key forwards. Might not always be big bags of goals, but there's other ways to do damage.

I see both ends of the ground being vulnerable this week, big week for our mids. Tyson, vB and Vince especially need to lift after last week.

 

[Demon Dynasty 15,210]

1 hour ago, poita said:

Don't disagree with any of those changes, but would question whether two changes is enough. Vandenberg in particular is very lucky.

Hopefully Grimes gets at least the three weeks that Michie got earlier in the season to show his stuff. Ditto for White.

Bugg should only be in the side if there is a hard tag, as against Collingwood. Otherwise he is a liability. Dawes should be made to kick at least six goals in the VFL before he comes back in to the senior team.

The club has said that one of the McDonalds will play forward this week, so we can cover Watts going in to the ruck.

 

Kick 6? So you're saying you don't want him playing for the demons again Poita? Tim Smith will kick 6 before Dawes and would probably give a more decent return for us on about half the coin

Edited July 8, 2016 by Rusty Nails

[Chris 2,892]

A few stats of the teams. 

	MFC	Freo		Diff
Average Age	23.3	25.3		-2.0
Average Games	64.7	107.6		-42.9
Back Line
Ave Age	23.3	25.7		-2.3
Ave Games	48.5	90.8		-42.3
Fol (includes wing)
Ave Age	24.5	26.8		-2.3
Ave Games	97.8	144.7		-46.8
Fwd
Ave Age	22.8	26.2		-3.3
Ave Games	64.7	131.5		-66.8
Int
Ave Age	22.3	21.3		1.0
Ave Games	39.3	41.3		-2.0
Melbourne
Games	Backline	Fol	Fwd	Int	total
0-50	3	1	4	3	11
51-100	3	3	0	1	7
101-150	0	0	2	0	2
151-200	0	1	0	0	1
200+	0	1	0	0	1
					22
Freo
Games	Backline	Fol	Fwd	Int	total
0-50	2	0	2	3	7
51-100	2	3	1	0	6
101-150	0	0	1	1	2
151-200	2	1	1	0	4
200+	0	2	1	0	3
					22
	MFC Back	Freo Fwd		Diff
Age	23.3	26.2		-2.8
Games	48.5	131.5		-83.0
	MFC Fwd	Freo Back
Age	22.8	25.7		-2.8
Games	64.7	90.8		-26.2

 

Once again we go in younger and less experienced across pretty much every line. The only place we are ahead is in age on the bench, we are behind in all other categories. The difference in age and experience between our backs and their forwards is also huge but that may be thrown out a bit by Pav.

I expect at least a 6 goal win but won't be surprised if it is close of if we lose either. All depends if the right Melbourne turn up to play. 

[Demon Dynasty 15,210]

1 hour ago, stuie said:

Yeah that's my point. TMac out of that backline leaves us with Jetta and a bunch of kids. Not ideal.

 

I hope you aren't including Frost and Omac as part of the "bunch of kids" Stuie, they are the future and they can do no wrong. They will lead us to the promised land eventually. Just keep playing them no matter what happens or how badly they perform. Even If they can't hit our targets, who cares. They look fast and impressive when the run, they take the game on and hit plenty of the opposition up. We are getting games into them and they will eventually learn not to pick out the opposition or kick it into dangerous vacant areas in the middle of the ground after running the ball out of defence so impressively ... A little like Tmac in diapers 

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,851]

1 hour ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Happy with the ins and outs but I would still rather Dunn ahead of O-Mac for this game.

Is the perfect size and matchup for Pavlich and the role given could have really been a simplified lockdown one that would suit Dunn's limitations. At his best as a defender, he has been very effective and I can't understand why he is still out of the side.

We have been leaking goal simply because O-Mac and Frost are in the side and Tom takes it upon himself to do things he shouldn't simply because the support is not there.

I don't understand it frankly. Dunn has been out of favour pretty much all year, and nobody knows why. Usually when ex-leaders and really experienced players are made to play ressies, they bounce back relatively quickly to play seniors again. Especially when there's an underdeveloped 20 year old who is hardly holding his own taking his position..

It's getting [censored] annoying. 

I know posters think we lost the game last week due to a 'lapse' in the third which might be true. But it wasn't because of the midfield. Watch all of those goals starting in the third and you'll see that we conceded those goals due to a lack of intensity, experience and smarts in the backline. We conceded easy goals from there when we didn't need to.

Pavlich is far too strong, smart and experienced for either one of O-Mac or Frost.

 

If Tmac had already signed would Dunn be playing instead of Oscar?

I would of thought we play Frost all of this year in defence along with Dunn and Tmac, then next year phase out Dunn for Oscar. That to me makes more sense.

Pav has the smarts but his body isn't what it used to be.

Edited July 8, 2016 by Bombay Airconditioning

[Demon Dynasty 15,210]

13 minutes ago, Chris said:

A few stats of the teams. 

	MFC	Freo		Diff
Average Age	23.3	25.3		-2.0
Average Games	64.7	107.6		-42.9
Back Line
Ave Age	23.3	25.7		-2.3
Ave Games	48.5	90.8		-42.3
Fol (includes wing)
Ave Age	24.5	26.8		-2.3
Ave Games	97.8	144.7		-46.8
Fwd
Ave Age	22.8	26.2		-3.3
Ave Games	64.7	131.5		-66.8
Int
Ave Age	22.3	21.3		1.0
Ave Games	39.3	41.3		-2.0
Melbourne
Games	Backline	Fol	Fwd	Int	total
0-50	3	1	4	3	11
51-100	3	3	0	1	7
101-150	0	0	2	0	2
151-200	0	1	0	0	1
200+	0	1	0	0	1
					22
Freo
Games	Backline	Fol	Fwd	Int	total
0-50	2	0	2	3	7
51-100	2	3	1	0	6
101-150	0	0	1	1	2
151-200	2	1	1	0	4
200+	0	2	1	0	3
					22
	MFC Back	Freo Fwd		Diff
Age	23.3	26.2		-2.8
Games	48.5	131.5		-83.0
	MFC Fwd	Freo Back
Age	22.8	25.7		-2.8
Games	64.7	90.8		-26.2

 

Once again we go in younger and less experienced across pretty much every line. The only place we are ahead is in age on the bench, we are behind in all other categories. The difference in age and experience between our backs and their forwards is also huge but that may be thrown out a bit by Pav.

I expect at least a 6 goal win but won't be surprised if it is close of if we lose either. All depends if the right Melbourne turn up to play. 

The bottom line IMO is the 100 plus gamesters.

Yet again we have less than half vs the Dockers. Similar to the Swans game. I don't rate the Dockers however, but at the same time we are just leaving too much to too few every week.

I dream of one day seeing this imbalance reversed in our favour...hopefully I'm still alive to see that.

Dockers by 3 to 5

[Binmans PA 25,897]

3 hours ago, stuie said:

Yeah I get that, and as I said my main worry is about when Watts is rucking and we only have 1 forward marking target.

It'll be greasy. Smalls will be better in those conditions, therefore it won't be an issue only have one tall target at stages. Guys like Kent and Kennedy have to lift their games, Jeffy has to carry over his Crows form and Harmes needs to be more damaging with his touches.

[stuie 7,374]

Just now, AdamFphlebeb said:

It'll be greasy. Smalls will be better in those conditions, therefore it won't be an issue only have one tall target at stages. Guys like Kent and Kennedy have to lift their games, Jeffy has to carry over his Crows form and Harmes needs to be more damaging with his touches.

It's not going to be greasy though. 21 - 32, 0% chance of rain, 50% humidity.

Maybe that's why Spencil went up?

 

[Demon Dynasty 15,210]

3 hours ago, P-man said:

T Mac would be better. Whether we can afford to take him out of the backline at an early stage in the game is another matter.

 

Play Frost forward now that White is in.

Frost likes to run around, jump and shoot. I would rather have him missing targets up forward than off HB where the opposition is more likely to score. Has a decent leap and can at least bring the ball to ground for Jeffy and Watts to work off and likely to be an improvement on Dawes.

White is pretty much a defender's defender and would expect him to be more solid down back.

 

 

Edited July 8, 2016 by Rusty Nails

[Chris 2,892]

38 minutes ago, stuie said:

It's not going to be greasy though. 21 - 32, 0% chance of rain, 50% humidity.

Maybe that's why Spencil went up?

 

Sweaty hands and bodies may well make it greasy instead of the weather. I too have been puzzled by the assumption it will be, nothing in the weather say it will be so sweat is the only other option I can think of. 

[DubDee 20,363]

4 hours ago, poita said:

Don't disagree with any of those changes, but would question whether two changes is enough. Vandenberg in particular is very lucky.

Hopefully Grimes gets at least the three weeks that Michie got earlier in the season to show his stuff. Ditto for White.

Bugg should only be in the side if there is a hard tag, as against Collingwood. Otherwise he is a liability. Dawes should be made to kick at least six goals in the VFL before he comes back in to the senior team.

The club has said that one of the McDonalds will play forward this week, so we can cover Watts going in to the ruck.

 

there goes my confidence about this game!