Another false dawn?

[Bonkers 994]

I think Roos has made comment on our up & down form previously this year. When we have 18 or so contributors we are a good side. When we have less than an even contribution across the side we get found out. I think it really is that simple. On the weekend our forward pressure was down, Kent, Kennedy & Garlett didn't really impact the game & the clearances were halved when we rely on this part of our game to create scoreboard pressure. These are the two areas where in my opinion we have been winning games this year or improved a lot since last year. We are one of the leading clearance teams & were I believe in the top 3 for scoring to Rd 9. Contested possessions have also gone up & it is what they are building the side upon.

Too much has been made of the diamond defence. Any defence will look like it has holes in it when the system falls down. If the ball is getting through the forward pressure to easily then its going to create holes in behind, we have increased our scoring heavily because of our press moving further up the ground as well as being able to move the ball more efficiently at times. Where you have gains or risk then sometimes you will also have losses or get found out. I think they need to find a balance with the new zonal defense & press but that is going to come with time & consistency as the players develop. At the moment they are probably struggling to maintain the intensity from week to week.

Over the season we have averaged 1 goal more a game against than last year, but our attack has gone up 5 goals a game. I think you would take the pain of the one further goal against to score five more. People can argue that we have only beaten the sides we did last year to this point, personally I have been encouraged in our losses against North & the Bulldogs. We probably aren't a finals team at the moment but that isn't something to be discouraged about. There are visible signs of improvement & we have a group of what I would call elite young talent that may turn into Elite at AFL level. That is something to look forward to. At the moment we are a middle of the road team with aspirations to make the finals, if we don't make them this year so be it. I don't think that means its a false dawn.

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

1 hour ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Nope.

We're building a very good list. Young, inconsistent, frustrating, inexperienced... But very, very talented.

We haven't played two terrible matches in a row this year- let's see how this weekend plays out.

My thoughts exactly we have played 10 games 3 shockers, 1 average loss, 1 honourable (horrible word but it's true) loss and 5 wins... I while i doubt we will win i think we can put up a real fight against the hawks

Hell this time 2 years ago we were playing 7 or 8 shockers by round 10

[Gorgoroth 12,972]

There is a train coming.  The difference is this train wears Red and Blue and is named Clarry Choo Choo.

It doesn't dodge bullets, it's bullet proof.

[Hurricane Dee 0]

2 hours ago, Diamond said:

We're inconsistent because it's a $hit game plan. Where is Roos' defensive game plan? Why has all defence gone out the window with the switch to a more attacking style of play? Where is the strong tackling that is needed?

Has Paul Roos dropped off as a good in game coach? I can't recall what his reputation was in that aspect during his time at Sydney but he has been disappointing in his time at Melbourne. It often seems that if the game plan isn't working for a given game, he fails to make any adjustments. Similar to when St Kilda smashed our zone and constantly had better structure at stoppages, we kept banging our heads against the wall.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,508]

46 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

My thoughts exactly we have played 10 games 3 shockers, 1 average loss, 1 honourable (horrible word but it's true) loss and 5 wins... I while i doubt we will win i think we can put up a real fight against the hawks

Hell this time 2 years ago we were playing 7 or 8 shockers by round 10

Agreed.

The Essendon match was the low point of this year; I cannot conceive of one being worse.  The next week though we played some great football and almost knocked off the top of the table team.  While I'm not advocating 'honorable losses', we have a opportunity to make a big statement this weekend against the Hawks, who incidently are a mere shadow of the team they were for the last four years.  

Someone in here talked of our gradual improvement, and they are sport on.  This is not a revolutionary turn around; there will be ups and there will be downs.  But just like I didn't buy into the media hype last week, I don't accept the media (and Demonland) eulogies this week.

[The Reverend 1,736]

I wonder just how many of these threads we can have running at the same time. Ah, desperation and despair - there's no substitute really. The hardest part of being a Demon supporter is listening to the terminal pessimism that spews forth after every loss.

We are improving. We are better than last year. we are 5 and 5 after 10 rounds. Our average losing margin has just about halved. We have scored 100+ points in five games. How is that not an improvement?

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

29 minutes ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Agreed.

The Essendon match was the low point of this year; I cannot conceive of one being worse.  The next week though we played some great football and almost knocked off the top of the table team.  While I'm not advocating 'honorable losses', we have a opportunity to make a big statement this weekend against the Hawks, who incidently are a mere shadow of the team they were for the last four years.  

Someone in here talked of our gradual improvement, and they are sport on.  This is not a revolutionary turn around; there will be ups and there will be downs.  But just like I didn't buy into the media hype last week, I don't accept the media (and Demonland) eulogies this week.

I will go to this weeks game the same as i went to the Doggies game. I have no expectations for them to win, i just want to see them compete and show something. Roos summed that game up perfectly "we made them earn it" and thats all i want to see this week, and every week we lose to a better side i want to say "at least they earnt it". So far only 3 times out of 10 I have been let down, compared to the past I think thats a big step

 

[praha 11,240]

You can't help but notice the similarities between Melbourne 2016 and Melbourne 2010.

When we won in 2010, out young brigade was on fire and we were on the right track.

When we lost, it was due to a lack of bigger bodies and experience. It's exactly the same in 2016.

When we won in 2010, it was exciting, high-scoring, confident football.

When we lost, it was frustrating, as Melbourne was easily bullied and pushed aside. It's exactly the same in 2016.

 

I actually think we've had the best start to a year for more than a decade.

1. We started the season off strong with three pre-season wins and a great win against GWS.

2. Four of our five wins have been beltings.

3. Of our five loses, only three have been disappointing: Essendon, Saints and Power. Bulldogs game I thought we played well but just couldn't match it with them.

 

BUT...it could all fall off the rails VERY quickly. We have 5 wins after 10 rounds. We need another 8 to assure finals. We probably won't make it, but a strong second-half of the year we be more an indication of where this club is at than this week's game against Hawthorn will be. 

Our biggest problem is still in the 150-200 game bracket, as was the problem in 2010. It's almost like we've made the same mistakes. Club stalwarts like Jones, Dunn, Garland have been part of a losing team for a decade. Bernie is winding down. Pederson and Dawes are serviceable but that's it.

Look at Carlton. They have Gibbs, Murphy, experienced campaigners with finals experience. Saints have stacks of it. This is why we will struggle and continue to struggle against both of them for the next few times we meet. Bookmark it. GWS have added premiership-winning match-winners and finals campaigners. They will fight for top 4 this year.

We match up well with some teams, but against others we are still in a game of losing margin minimisation.

It's not a "false dawn" in that the players we have drafted are no good or won't come on, but we still need to take a BIG step and turn a huge corner. We couldn't do it in 2010, and haven't done it yet.

This club is still very much in a fight to be relevant. Anyone that thinks we've turned the corner is considering themselves. 

If you have realistic expectation you won't be as disappointed. Don't fall for it. We need 4-5 weeks of consistent, winning football but this club turns a corner. No more "anomaly" wins like last year up at Geelong. 

[Dr. Gonzo 24,235]

7 minutes ago, praha said:

When we lost, it was frustrating, as Melbourne was easily bullied and pushed aside. It's exactly the same in 2016.

I dispute this. We have not been bullied or pushed aside this year, certainly not in the same manner as previously. We may get cut up on the rebound/turnovers and we may need to improve our workrate but our contested game is there. It's just that we're still becoming acclimatised to being the hunted rather than hunter. We struggle when opposition shut us down in the middle not from being bullied but just from a failure to understand how we can turn the tables.

[Skuit 10,031]

The author is a seasoned Dees-watcher like most of us. And like most of us, he knows this isn't a false dawn and is conveying that idea. You don't even need statistical comparisons with 2010 - you just know. It comes from being a cynical and jaded seasoned Dees-watcher. Old Dee should be enough of a barometer for anyone. Failing that, Choo-choo and Truck standing next to Morton and Blease should give a fairly good idea of the difference.

[Optimus D 283]

No false dawn here. We are 5 & 5 after ten with a young side without any A graders. We have an exciting young group with possibly four or five that can develop into A Graders( it takes time) and if we snag a couple more via trades and draft then look out. Sure we missed an opportunity last week, but we are still a work in progress with a big upside.

[Chook 15,013]

11 hours ago, DubDee said:

Classic line

The man they really missed this week was Clayton Oliver.... His ability to stand in traffic and dodge tacklers like Neo avoiding bullets in The Matrix until the right option appears would have added much needed calm to a side who responded to Port’s pressure like they were evacuating a burning building.

Time was a professional journalist wouldn't have to resort to pop culture references in order to resonate with the public. That time is clearly passed. #Twitter

[McQueen 17,865]

12 hours ago, DubDee said:

Classic line

The man they really missed this week was Clayton Oliver.... His ability to stand in traffic and dodge tacklers like Neo avoiding bullets in The Matrix until the right option appears would have added much needed calm to a side who responded to Port’s pressure like they were evacuating a burning building.

Yes, Clarry swallowed the red and the blue pills. ??

[titan_uranus 25,020]

10 hours ago, praha said:

When we lost, it was frustrating, as Melbourne was easily bullied and pushed aside. It's exactly the same in 2016.

I don't agree that this is what is happening in 2016.

We're conceding too many easy goals out the back, no doubt, but that's not the same as being "easily bullied and pushed aside". 

To me, we have a structural problem that, for large portions of games, isn't working. In 2010, we had a systematic down-hill-skiing, bruise-free gameplan which, when it didn't work, meant the entire park was littered with embarrassment. This year, we are structurally being opened up as opposed to physically being brutalised. Big difference, IMO.

[AzzKikA 2,371]

22 hours ago, billy2803 said:

Sorry for quoting yours specifically, DC, but here's something that we need to consider...

After Round 10, 2015, we stood at 3 wins, 7 losses, points for 701, points against 971.

After Round 10, 2015, we stand at 5 wins, 5 losses, points for 1054, points against 982.

Have we really gone backwards with our defence?  What has happened is that when the opposition score goals, they score them a lot easier, which makes our defence look terrible.  However, compared to last year, the amount of goals/points that we are leaking is basically no different (just on 1 point per game), yet our own scoring has increased around 6 goals a game.

We have to be on the right track, especially as this is the first year where we have seen significant evidence of the defensive side of our game.

Great comparison now look at the teams played till rnd 10 and where they where at the end of round 10 that year, and in brackets where they finished that year:

2015 Us 15th(13th): GC 18th(16th) W, GWS 5th(11th) L, Ade 7th(7th) L, Ric 8th(5th) W, Freo 1st(1st) L, Syd 2nd(4th) L, Haw 6th(3rd) L, WB 11th(6th) W, Port 9th(9th) L, Pies 4th(12th) L.

2016   9th: GWS 4th W, Ess   17th L, Nth  1st L, Col 12th W, Ric  14th W, StK 13h L, GC 15th W, WB 6th L, BL 16th W, PA 10th L.

Best recent year was 2010, so i added that in. But do not forget GC & GWS were not in the comp at this stage:

2010 12th(12th): Haw 11th (7th)L, Col 3rd (1st)L, Ade 15th (11th)W, Ric 16th (15th)W, BL 9th (13th)W, Nth 13th (9th)L, WB 5th (4th)L, WC 14th (16th)L, PA 10th (10th)W, Gee 1st 2nd)L.

Dunno what my point is, just thought it would be an interesting conversation starter for the more analytical minds.

 

Edited May 31, 2016 by AzzKikA

[Dr. Gonzo 24,235]

9 minutes ago, AzzKikA said:

Great comparison now look at the teams played till rnd 10 and where they finished/are now:

2015: GC 16th  W, GWS 11th L, Ade 7th L, Ric 5th  W, Freo 1st   L,  Syd 4th  L, Haw 3rd L, WB 6th W, Port 9th L, Pies 12th L.

2016: GWS 4th W, Ess   17th L, Nth  1st L, Col 12th W, Ric  14th W, StK 13h L, GC 15th W, WB 6th L, BL 16th W, Port 10th L.

Dunno what my point is, just thought it would be an interesting conversation starter for the more analytical minds.

Point is our "strength of schedule" to this point has been relatively easy. The next month will be a huge test to see how we perform against some of the better and more senior sides.

[jnrmac 20,108]

15 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Point is our "strength of schedule" to this point has been relatively easy. The next month will be a huge test to see how we perform against some of the better and more senior sides.

With a leaky, unsettled defence it won't be pretty.

[beelzebub 23,380]

58 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Point is our "strength of schedule" to this point has been relatively easy. The next month will be a huge test to see how we perform against some of the better and more senior sides.

I see honourable  losses and a couple of shellackings coming up with a few junk wins thrown in for good measure !!

That's not to be belligerent or such it's just a perception. Take Viney out and that's a big drop in productivity through the guts. This will end up meaning less center  clearances and more ball time in and amongst our illustrious Diamond. Of course here it will just go to shlt !!

We don't have enough skilled or intelligence in the back half to cope. Once any team has opened us up we'll be stuffed. Catch up footy ....all over again . Fmd.  Do we not  learn .

[Dr. Gonzo 24,235]

25 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

I see honourable  losses and a couple of shellackings coming up with a few junk wins thrown in for good measure !!

That's not to be belligerent or such it's just a perception. Take Viney out and that's a big drop in productivity through the guts. This will end up meaning less center  clearances and more ball time in and amongst our illustrious Diamond. Of course here it will just go to shlt !!

We don't have enough skilled or intelligence in the back half to cope. Once any team has opened us up we'll be stuffed. Catch up footy ....all over again . Fmd.  Do we not  learn .

Maybe wait and see before throwing your hands in the air - you may be pleasantly surprised. I was after the Essendon loss.

[beelzebub 23,380]

Just now, Dr. Gonzo said:

Maybe wait and see before throwing your hands in the air - you may be pleasantly surprised. I was after the Essendon loss.

Ive seen enough of our defence against better teams to understand its flawed  and inefficient.  We are getting better at scoring and worse at defending.

I have every faith that when our team is day coached with more nouse  and we have a better cache of capable defenders we will take on anyone  and often prevail. Thats not now.

 

[Mach5 4,768]

Depends on what you call a "false dawn".

We may not premiership material at this stage, but we have solid foundations and are a long way from the team of flat-track bullies with pretenders like McLean, Sylvia and Moloney steering the ship. 

[Emerald 1,744]

On ‎31‎/‎05‎/‎2016 at 9:03 AM, DubDee said:

Classic line

The man they really missed this week was Clayton Oliver.... His ability to stand in traffic and dodge tacklers like Neo avoiding bullets in The Matrix until the right option appears would have added much needed calm to a side who responded to Port’s pressure like they were evacuating a burning building.

Clarry is The One.