The Jesse Hogan Panic Room - all contract talk here

[jackaub 1,402]

5 minutes ago, america de cali said:

Well the goals came and never so easily when he missed a couple of games. I question the value of Prima Donna forwards that tend to dominate forward lines and muck up team balance. Only 3 flags have been won since 1990 in hand with the Coleman medalist playing. And Crows won in 1997 with Modra out. It is arguable they would have lost with a Modra centric forward line. The list of high maintenance forwards with stacks of goals and no flags is very long.

Couldnt agree more A de C 

JH may become a once in a lifetime player ( I have my Doubts) but I am not sure he will do it with us

Bont is the same age and has had an incredible influence for the Dogs and has no attitude problems

Trade Jesse this year for a good deal  and move on. 

[Ted Lasso 19,568]

2 minutes ago, olisik said:

Who we may not have beyond this off season anyway.

well maybe, but if that's not a factor and we think as though he will stay he's still a better option than any of those three, so missing out on 1 to get Hogan is well worth it in my opinion. 

[mdemon 266]

4 minutes ago, america de cali said:

Well the goals came and never so easily when he missed a couple of games. I question the value of Prima Donna forwards that tend to dominate forward lines and muck up team balance. Only 3 flags have been won since 1990 in hand with the Coleman medalist playing. And Crows won in 1997 with Modra out. It is arguable they would have lost with a Modra centric forward line. The list of high maintenance forwards with stacks of goals and no flags is very long.

Very true - the loss of Franklin simply meant the goal-scoring burden got shared between Roughead, Gunston, Breust and Bruce's "love children", Cyril & Poppy.

If it is possible to extract, say Shuey + 1st rounder from WCE or Neale + 1st rounder from Freo, we would salvage something from the wreckage.

(Having said that, I suspect I will be inconsolable for weeks after Jesse goes and will remain curled up in the foetal position until the season proper begins next year).

[Ted Lasso 19,568]

2 minutes ago, mdemon said:

Very true - the loss of Franklin simply meant the goal-scoring burden got shared between Roughead, Gunston, Breust and Bruce's "love children", Cyril & Poppy.

If it is possible to extract, say Shuey + 1st rounder from WCE or Neale + 1st rounder from Freo, we would salvage something from the wreckage.

(Having said that, I suspect I will be inconsolable for weeks after Jesse goes and will remain curled up in the foetal position until the season proper begins next year).

Hawthorn were a premiership side when they lost Buddy, we haven't even made the top 8 yet..

[McQueen 17,867]

28 minutes ago, mo64 said:

Either Freo or WCE will have to give up a decent pick to acquire Brad Hill. Hawks need this pick to be part of O'Meara, Mitchell and Vickery deals. Just can't see how either club can satisfy us with draft picks.

I'm loathe to throw up suggested trades for Hogan because I still think he'll stay.

However, I can see a multiple of clubs included in doing major deals with the Giants and Suns. Once the Suns get picks for the losses of O'Meara and Prestia, it'll become one of the most interesting trade periods for years.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

14 minutes ago, america de cali said:

Well the goals came and never so easily when he missed a couple of games. I question the value of Prima Donna forwards that tend to dominate forward lines and muck up team balance especially with weaker clubs. Only 3 flags have been won since 1990 in hand with the Coleman medalist playing. And Crows won in 1997 with Coleman winner Modra out injured. It is arguable they would have lost with a Modra centric forward line. The list of high maintenance forwards with stacks of goals and no flags is very long.

See, this is what annoys me.  He's not a 'Prima Donna' forward.  He's a kid.  It's up to the club as a whole to make sure we get the very best out of him - if the transition is slow and the disposal is sub par then of course you aren't going to kick many goals, nor are you going to get a whole lot of the footy.

And the list of players in general without a flag is very long.  It doesn't just go with forwards with stacks of goals.  

[ArtificialWisdom 4,045]

Whether he is actually "gone" or not... did nobody see this coming? He was always going to go home for at least some the off season. As soon as he inevitably boarded the plane we were going to hear all the media rave about it. I'm no way more confident that he will stay than I was at the start of the year but the media can put whatever tag on him traveling home not like he would actually call them up and tell them. Its all just crap look I can speculate too:

Maybe he isnt there pondering his future maybe he misses feeding the birds on swan river. OR maybe he left his headphones there last time he visited. Or.. or! Maybe and this one is a bit of a stretch here but maybe he just wants to go visit his family and friends.... Personaly I think that feeding the birds is the most likely he seems like a bird feeder to me, but feel free to suggest your own reasons

[John Crow Batty 8,886]

19 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

See, this is what annoys me.  He's not a 'Prima Donna' forward.  He's a kid.  It's up to the club as a whole to make sure we get the very best out of him - if the transition is slow and the disposal is sub par then of course you aren't going to kick many goals, nor are you going to get a whole lot of the footy.

And the list of players in general without a flag is very long.  It doesn't just go with forwards with stacks of goals.  

Yeah a kid who acts like a spoilt brat and been allowed to get away with it. A stronger club would have put him back to the seconds for re-eduction at intervals to help him along. 

[Wiseblood 24,637]

5 minutes ago, america de cali said:

Yeah a kid who acts like a spoilt brat and been allowed to get away with it. A stronger club would have put him back to the seconds for re-eduction at intervals to help him along. 

Spoiled brat?  Pull the other one.  When his body language was poor early in the season the club made a point of working through that with him and we didn't see it from him again in that manner during the year.  It was handled very well.

And if playing for a few free kicks late in the season makes you a spoiled brat, then half the league would be spoiled brats as well.  

[Fat Tony 5,322]

14 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

See, this is what annoys me.  He's not a 'Prima Donna' forward.  He's a kid.  It's up to the club as a whole to make sure we get the very best out of him - if the transition is slow and the disposal is sub par then of course you aren't going to kick many goals, nor are you going to get a whole lot of the footy.

And the list of players in general without a flag is very long.  It doesn't just go with forwards with stacks of goals.  

I think america de cali makes some valid points around the importance of spreading the load when it comes to goal kicking. Most premiership sides are built with multiple forward options. And a forward line including Hogan becomes quite one dimensional because he is a very good mark but offers little on the deck.

Moreover, there is yet to be a premiership side where one player takes up more than 10% of the salary cap. (Sydney got closest, but they had the advantage of COLA.) I would be willing to pay Hogan that much if I was confident he could have the influence on games of Fyfe, Ablett, Dangerfield or Franklin, but while I think Hogan will improve, I just don't think he will get to that bracket.

The other thing to add is that AFL defences have moved from man on man to zone defence. This, along with the congestion in the midfield, has decreased the value of good key forwards overall, and increased the value of small/mid sized forwards who are good overhead and inside midfielders.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

1 hour ago, juzzk1d said:

I'd do that deal. 

Lock it in.

Judd for Kennedy, Pick 3 = Masten (Danger went at 10), Pick 20 Tony Notte (2 games)

Danger for Dean Gore?? 0 games 2016, pick 9 and 28, Crows must of used picks as part of a deal elsewhere as they picked Wayne Milera at 11.

Our of interest I looked up the most recent high profile trades. 

If he goes hopefully it's to Freo, this years and nexts first round picks. We've nailed our picks the last two years, and we're still a year or two off being a serious threat.

1 hour ago, Wiseblood said:

Or maybe that's due to the fact that everyone in our midfield instantly looked for him the moment the ball went forward of centre?  Or the fact that after such a good season in 2015 that the opposition put far more time in to stopping him?

You guys are laughable.  Just have a listen to yourselves talking him down to help soften the blow of him leaving.  Name the forwards in the last 20 years who have kicked over 80 goals in their first two seasons?  I'll be waiting for an answer.

When we work things out in the middle and up forward he will monster teams.  His body work is sublime, his hands are sensational and when he learns to kick for goal with some consistency then he'll get reward for his efforts.  Let's not forget that in the second half of the season his kicking went AWOL - he could easily have kicked 60 goals for the year.  The kicking is something he seriously needs to sort out, but when he does every backman in the competition will dread playing on him.

We all better hope that he makes the decision to stay long term, as we won't be as good without him there.  We will be relying on Weideman to come on quickly, as clubs will put their key backs on Watts and then who else do we have?  Pedersen?  Dawes?  Where will all the goals come from? 

Learns to kick for goal....

In earlier posts you've eluded to "fixing it over the pre season", as in 1 pre season, whats that based on? In your opinion what will be the difference between Jesse and a Travis Cloke or a Nick Riewoldt who have been the best contested marks of the footy for years but have struggled their whole careers with set shots on goal. Collingwood employed a sports psychologist to try and help Cloke, obviously it didn't work. Hawthorn tried to change Buddy's run up to straight instead of the arc but he kept deferring back to it, in the end with Buddy he was having so many shots on goal you took the good with the bad, 9 goals 1 or 4 goals 5. My friend who coaches TAC has attended many AFL coaches clinics, he told me that when asked such names as Al Clarkson, John Longmire, Chris and Brad Scott and David Parkin were all in agreeance, it takes hundreds of hours to try and fix someone's set shot routine, and in many cases the attempt is unsuccessful.

No one is doubting Hogans contested marking ability but we need to seriously entertain the thought that he may struggle with his set shots on goal for his whole career. How much is a key forward worth that can't kick from outside 50 and struggleds from 30-40 metres out on a slight angle on a regular basis? Have we got the next Travis Cloke on our hands? 80 goals from two seasons is a great effort but he could have had 100+ if he could kick straight, he wasn't stuck on 80 for lack of opportunities . We also must remember how many key forwards have had his body shape in their first two seasons. Anyone putting their hand up (or fielding offers) for a million plus per season needs to be delivering ideally 70-80 goals a year and then deliver in the big moments in the big games when it really counts. 

I'm not saying we should get rid of him, I'm just saying we don't want to get out pants pulled down with his contract. If he decides to go, so be it its out of our hands, if he decides to stay, great, any previous offers are torn up and we can see how he goes next year with regards to his accuracy and offer a contract accordingly. 

It's not a case of softening the blow, it's simply the club putting the club first and paying people what their actually worth not based on potential.

[ChaserJ 5,189]

Bit more analysis here: http://footyprophet.com/jesse-hogan-market-value/

Just our luck that the only two sides that could be in the running for Jesse are locked out of trading 2 first round picks (unless they acquire a separate pick in trade).

Next years draft looks to have more high end talent, so would not be pleased if any deal for Jesse didn't include a 2017 1st rounder. McGraths my preferred player for a high 2016 selection and pick 3 provides no guarantees there either.

Unless a top end player walks in the door with a first rounder, there's no guarantee trading Jesse a year out actually secures us the best trade outcome.

[rjay 25,359]

I want Hogan to stay but if he was to go it would have to be for McGovern and a pick, probably their first round.

WC have been using him as KPD but he can easily play CHF.

We need to replace like for like.

[DemonLad5 1,642]

I'd be looking to extract a 3 way deal if needed. For eg.

Melbourne give up Jesse Hogan, 2017 2nd, Colin Garland

Melbourne recieve GC pick 4, GC pick 21, Peter Wright

West Coast give up Dom Sheed, Jack Darling, Mark Lecras, pick 30, pick 12

West Coast receive Jesse Hogan, Melb 2017 2nd

Gold Coast give up Peter Wright, pick 4, pick 21

Gold Coast revive Colin Garland, Mark Lecras, Dom Sheed, Jack Darling, pick 12, pick 30, Melb 2017 2nd rounder 

[Ted Lasso 19,568]

I suspect Chris Dawes fate at the club will be very closely tied to what Jesse does or what the club thinks Jesse will do at the end of next year 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, GawnWithTheWind said:

If Lycett hadn't done his knee, he could have been included in the deal and I rate him as a RF. We won't take a punt on him unless he's thrown in as steak knifes.

IF hogan does choose to move home, I can see:

Freo 2016 and Freo 2017 first round for Hogan and our 2nd rounder in 2017.

We would then ontrade 2017 pick for someone like Patton? Redpath + sweatner? 

Redpath is coming off his 4th knee, won't even play AFL for the first half of the year and frankly isn't that good.

[McQueen 17,867]

5 minutes ago, rjay said:

I want Hogan to stay but if he was to go it would have to be for McGovern and a pick, probably their first round.

WC have been using him as KPD but he can easily play CHF.

We need to replace like for like.

No chance.

McGovern is AA and a WA born and bred kid. 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Abe said:

I suspect Chris Dawes fate at the club will be very closely tied to what Jesse does or what the club thinks Jesse will do at the end of next year 

Pedo is still OOC as well. Think the club is holding off on both to see what happens with Jesse, maybe they will delist both (Pedo hopefully not) if he actually stays.

[Willmoy1947 4,225]

28 minutes ago, ArtificialWisdom said:

Whether he is actually "gone" or not... did nobody see this coming? He was always going to go home for at least some the off season. As soon as he inevitably boarded the plane we were going to hear all the media rave about it. I'm no way more confident that he will stay than I was at the start of the year but the media can put whatever tag on him traveling home not like he would actually call them up and tell them. Its all just crap look I can speculate too:

Maybe he isnt there pondering his future maybe he misses feeding the birds on swan river. OR maybe he left his headphones there last time he visited. Or.. or! Maybe and this one is a bit of a stretch here but maybe he just wants to go visit his family and friends.... Personaly I think that feeding the birds is the most likely he seems like a bird feeder to me, but feel free to suggest your own reasons

As i was thinking, let all the other clubs and media annoy s33t out of each other. He knows what he should do. Really its family time now and how hated must the media really be.

Wandering around after Footscray's win like a dirty old smelly sock. Any Club who tries to chase him at the present would have to look really bad.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

9 minutes ago, Abe said:

I suspect Chris Dawes fate at the club will be very closely tied to what Jesse does or what the club thinks Jesse will do at the end of next year 

I bloody hope not. 

Dawes is cooked regardless of what Hogan does.

[jackaub 1,402]

1 hour ago, america de cali said:

Well the goals came and never so easily when he missed a couple of games. I question the value of Prima Donna forwards that tend to dominate forward lines and muck up team balance. Only 3 flags have been won since 1990 in hand with the Coleman medalist playing. And Crows won in 1997 with Modra out. It is arguable they would have lost with a Modra centric forward line. The list of high maintenance forwards with stacks of goals and no flags is very long.

Couldnt agree more A de C 

JH may become a once in a lifetime player ( I have my Doubts) but I am not sure he will do it with us

Bont is the same age and has had an incredible influence for the Dogs and has no attitude problems

Trade Jesse this year for a good deal  and move on. 

[Ted Lasso 19,568]

1 minute ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I bloody hope not. 

Dawes is cooked regardless of what Hogan does.

I guess it depends on if they think Weid is read, they might give Dawes one more year to cover the loss while Weid builds an AFL ready body and tank

 

[rjay 25,359]

7 minutes ago, McQueen said:

No chance.

McGovern is AA and a WA born and bred kid. 

So is Fyfe, big deal.

Are you the WC list manager? if they really want Hogan then they have to pay a realistic price.

[Demi Dee 578]

16 minutes ago, DemonLad5 said:

I'd be looking to extract a 3 way deal if needed. For eg.

Melbourne give up Jesse Hogan, 2017 2nd, Colin Garland

Melbourne recieve GC pick 4, GC pick 21, Peter Wright

West Coast give up Dom Sheed, Jack Darling, Mark Lecras, pick 30, pick 12

West Coast receive Jesse Hogan, Melb 2017 2nd

Gold Coast give up Peter Wright, pick 4, pick 21

Gold Coast revive Colin Garland, Mark Lecras, Dom Sheed, Jack Darling, pick 12, pick 30, Melb 2017 2nd rounder 

No Nic Nat??

[dazzledavey36 55,994]

It looked like Dawes was doing a development role with Casey yesterday. I wonder that if he isn't given a contract he will sign with the scorpions and play as an assistant coach/development role and help the Melbourne boys out in that capacity same form as what Shannon Byrnes did.