Have we had the easiest draw? (Rds 1 - 7)

[H_T 3,043]

6 minutes ago, Garbo said:

Interesting fact the Dees are the only side out side the 8 to have beaten a team in the 8.

Hopefully this week we make that 2 teams in the 8.

I don't think GWS, North and StKilda at Etihad are easy at all. There will be a lot that will prove difficult against these sides. The Saints should be better than 2-5 too.

 

I don't like looking back and thinking about the should-have, could-have, would-have scenario's... 

That said, it would have been very nice to have had the right mindset/selection v Ess and take the 4 points from the Kangaroos. 6-1 and top 4 would be Leicester City-like and had Jesse asking for his contract to sign.

[Ricky P 757]

It's obviously a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy because if you beat a side it makes your draw look easier. That said, we have had a pretty easy draw. It gets harder after the next 3 games and then we'll see how much we've improved. 

The AFL designs the draw so that the bottom 6 teams get an easier draw than everyone else so it's no surprise we've had an easier draw. Don't worry - it will be harder next year!

[Chris 2,892]

14 minutes ago, Ricky P said:

It's obviously a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy because if you beat a side it makes your draw look easier. That said, we have had a pretty easy draw. It gets harder after the next 3 games and then we'll see how much we've improved. 

The AFL designs the draw so that the bottom 6 teams get an easier draw than everyone else so it's no surprise we've had an easier draw. Don't worry - it will be harder next year!

According to the champion data (I think it is) ranking before the year our draw was the 4th or 6th hardest. I remember thinking about the whole AFl bottom teams get easier draws thing and wondering how our draw ended up as it did. 

[Ricky P 757]

2 minutes ago, Chris said:

According to the champion data (I think it is) ranking before the year our draw was the 4th or 6th hardest. I remember thinking about the whole AFl bottom teams get easier draws thing and wondering how our draw ended up as it did. 

They are meant to give you a better run with who you play twice. So we play two teams twice from the bottom 6, two teams twice from the middle 6 and one team twice from the top 6. We only play one team twice who finished in the top 8 last year. 

[Chris 2,892]

31 minutes ago, Ricky P said:

They are meant to give you a better run with who you play twice. So we play two teams twice from the bottom 6, two teams twice from the middle 6 and one team twice from the top 6. We only play one team twice who finished in the top 8 last year. 

Maybe they take travel etc into account at champion data? Not sure, just know they ranked us as one of the hardest. 

[Copuchas 763]

The methodology is simplistic to be sure for the reasons already mentioned.  Moreover, we beat Collingwood and Richmond in critical season defining games for both of them.  The significance of this shouldn't be overlooked but obviously the draw difficulty methodology can't factor this in.  The other aspect is that form changes - Port Adelaide in the first 5 weeks was a different prospect altogether than the last couple of weeks (and possibly going forward).  One thing is clear though for the Dees, the draw for the balance of the season is reasonably challenging.

[Ricky P 757]

8 minutes ago, Chris said:

Maybe they take travel etc into account at champion data? Not sure, just know they ranked us as one of the hardest. 

Possibly how long your breaks are between games as well. They might also include games in a row against good opposition or something. Champion Data have pretty in-depth stats.  

It's tough to predict before the season starts. Realistically, no-one knows who's going to be rubbish. Richmond, Collingwood, Freo and West Coast are all worse than last year. Essendon are worse but everyone knew that would happen. Port and Hawthorn are also potentially worse.  

[Chris 2,892]

7 minutes ago, Ricky P said:

Possibly how long your breaks are between games as well. They might also include games in a row against good opposition or something. Champion Data have pretty in-depth stats.  

It's tough to predict before the season starts. Realistically, no-one knows who's going to be rubbish. Richmond, Collingwood, Freo and West Coast are all worse than last year. Essendon are worse but everyone knew that would happen. Port and Hawthorn are also potentially worse.  

Looked it up and they had us as the fourth hardest draw for the year. Would be interesting for them to re do it using the same methodology for the rest of the year givent he form of some teams. There would need to be adjustments due to the fact not all teams have played each other but statisticians could work that out. 

[Redlegs Too 106]

I think that at the start of the season our draw was ranked fourth hardest. A lot of things have gone against expectations and will continue to do so. It seems the stats say that the more you win the easier it gets. I don't think NM would agree with that. 

[Bluey's Dad 3,419]

Teams can change very quickly, and this effects the difficulty of the draw.

How many teams would have pencilled in a W against the dees at the start of the season? How many would now?

Likewise, many teams would have said Freo would be a tough game, and they haven't won a game yet.

[Adzman 2,154]

Yes, but when the draw came out many thought Richmond and collingwood were potential top 8 teams. There was also talk of the gcs playing finals. Looks like we played those teams at the right time. Those sides have fallen well short of expectations.

[MrBurns 36]

Stat's like these secrete from David King's journalistic teet.  

Retrospective: Tigs were all 'we're top 4' at the start of the season and North now still undefeated 7 rounds deep.  Dons had the ball bounce their way and Saint Nick had his typical birthday against the Dees.  

As for GWS, first rounds are always known for weird victories.  GWS are a better side now than they were when we played them.  

[In Harmes Way 7,770]

At the start of the year we had the 4th hardest draw, now we've got the 9th hardest draw coming home from an easy run. By round 14 we'll have the hardest draw. 

Bring it back to the cliche - one week at a time. This just proves that the team we think we'll be facing in 6 weeks time may or may not be in form at that time...

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

22 hours ago, PaulRB said:

Theres something retrospective about those stats, that messes with my head.

As in if we'd lost to Tiger and Pies and GWS, then they'd be ranked higher and our draw would have been deemed "harder"...

Is that weird, or just me? 

Nup. Every year they say this same stuff. The teams on top generally have an easier draw than the ones on the bottom, with a few exceptions. It's stats at its worst. After round 1, for example, GWS were among the "easy beats" of the comp cos they hadn't won a game. Now look at them. Plus it doesn't take into account who turns up on any given day. Essendon have been smacked in their games this year, but on the week they met us, they were far from the worst side in the comp.

I just use my eyes these days. The North game they were breathing fire. GC game they stayed with us for a half. Saints probably played their best footy of the year against us. Tigers were putrid, we should have won by 60, and would have had we turned up like we did against North.

The games I'm interested in are the ones against sides that END the year in top 8. As well as, of course, teams we played while they were in top form. Pies game and Toiges game... I think they weren't anything to write home about. Pleased to win, but they were disgusting on those days. It's when teams are flying that you find out things. Who still stands up. Viney is a great example of a guy who plays well regardless of competition. I want to see THOSE sorts of performances against, say, 2016 cats at Simmonds.  Hawks later in the year as they ramp up for finals. Sydney anywhere. Adelaide anywhere. Also the Port game we'll learn a lot.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Jeez just had a look at our draw. Screw the maths it's gonna be tough. Only sure wins for me in the next 8 games are lions, pies (maybe) and freo (maybe). Dogs, port (have improved heaps), Hawks, sydney away, Adelaide (home). Ouch.

[SPC98 36]

We have had an easy draw so far and it looks tough for the back-end of the year.. We should win around 9-11 for the year, but it is great to see how we handle the back half of the year, particularly against the Hawks, Freo, WC and the likes, to see the growth and maturity in this group..

Next year will be where we really make major ground on the top 4-6 sides.. This year is still really about development of the game plan and implementing the right game day habits.  I suspect that at the end of the year, we will not make major list changes, so the core that is here now, will be driving the success next year, and this is the first time in years that this is the case.

[PaulRB 6,362]

Given the uneven nature of the draw, opposition team form fluctuations etc... its hard to find a "statistical" measure to gauge a teams improvement relative to the other teams.

My intuitive sense is we've improved significantly, and, contrary to some other teams, still have a higher ceiling this year as players settle into the team, the regular 22 becomes clearer and our depth allows us to avoid injury and form based down periods... My measure for this is gut feel, which as we all know can be distorted by wishful thinking.

Anecdotally there are some good indicators of this shift, i.e.

- Gawn and Viney featuring high in player ranks, Brownlow and team of week ranks.

- In form backup layers working in the Casey team, covering most positions and putting real pressure on for spots

- several "top 22" players pushing to regain a spot (Brayshaw, Vandenberg, Dawes, Trenners) in coming weeks

- Statistical data on improved performance and ranking (which is skewed by who we've played unfortunately, but generally very positive)

- etc...

Prompts me to suggest that the team has (or is) recalibrating it's focus onto making the 8, if indeed it was ever not on this.

I like also that the way we're now able to have players return via their performances in the reserves, staying there until they are cherry ripe to play AFL. This to me is one of the hallmarks of a top 8 team, and having Brayshaw, Vandenberg, Dawes, and Trenners hitting form and entering the team during the second half of the year will alleviate any downturn our young team might be experiencing by then...

 

Edited May 13, 2016 by PaulRB

[P-man 13,366]

1 hour ago, Dappa Dan said:

Jeez just had a look at our draw. Screw the maths it's gonna be tough. Only sure wins for me in the next 8 games are lions, pies (maybe) and freo (maybe). Dogs, port (have improved heaps), Hawks, sydney away, Adelaide (home). Ouch.

Port's last two weeks have been against Richmond and then Brisbane at AO. It's premature to say they have "improved heaps" until we see how they go against a decent opponent, the next one being the Eagles next week.

The only one of those games I would give us next to no hope in would be Sydney away, although Brisbane ran them to the wire so who knows. Hawks aren't looking the same team this year as they have in those previous. They'll be tough but they are now looking beatable. 

As of right now I'm not looking at the upcoming fixtures with a sense of dread. If we collapse in a heap on Sunday, that view could change. 

[WhyAlwaysMe 237]

the draw means nothing to a team like us, just as likely to beat Roos & GWS as losing to Saints & Bombers.

we have been the underdog 5 times & won 4, lost as favourite 1 from 1, lost when evens against the Saints.

[Dees2014 2,377]

On 12 May 2016 at 0:18 PM, PaulRB said:

Theres something retrospective about those stats, that messes with my head.

As in if we'd lost to Tiger and Pies and GWS, then they'd be ranked higher and our draw would have been deemed "harder"...

Is that weird, or just me? 

Yes it is interesting. How many teams in the last four years have gone into meltdown when they lose to us. They simply see us as an easy win, and if they don't the boards are to be sacked and the coach can't coach. 

This year, more than I can remember there has been a changing of the guard: Fremantle, Richmond, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Gold Coast, Port, Adelaide have all gone backwards to the extent that a draw that looked challenging at the start of the year suddenly looks easy, especially for a team like MELBOURNE who has clearly improved substantially.

Wingeing of people like Eddie off the back of this should just be ignored. Our success is in our hands, it has little to do with our so called easy draw.

 

[Dees2014 2,377]

I did the calc two days ago and came out with a number of 14 wins and a percentage of 124.2, enough I would have thought to get us into the eight, and this included a loss to the Saints at the return match at Etihad. Our draw iss opening up as the so called perspective top 8 drop away.

The eight is more than doable, then watch out 1987. We will surprise a few, even without Jim Stynes!

Edited May 13, 2016 by Dees2014

[Samael 560]

Surprisingly, more teams have won the flag from 4-3 than from 5-2 (although Brisbane won a flag after being 5-1-1 in 2003), with Hawthorn last year, Geelong in 2007 and Brisbane in 2001 all having gone on to win the flag after having just four wins from seven. That would suggest, somewhat perversely, that West Coast, Adelaide, Melbourne and Port Adelaide have a better chance of being premiers this year than the Western Bulldogs, GWS and Hawthorn. - See more at: http://australianfootball.com/articles/view/Micro+Noises+124%3A+Depending+on+views%2C+news+is+bad+and+good+for+Roos/1954#sthash.M0riNdCl.dpuf

[Adam The God 30,239]

4 hours ago, Dees2014 said:

I did the calc two days ago and came out with a number of 14 wins and a percentage of 124.2, enough I would have thought to get us into the eight, and this included a loss to the Saints at the return match at Etihad. Our draw iss opening up as the so called perspective top 8 drop away.

The eight is more than doable, then watch out 1987. We will surprise a few, even without Jim Stynes!

Well, it's Max Gawn really, isn't it?

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

12 hours ago, P-man said:

As of right now I'm not looking at the upcoming fixtures with a sense of dread. If we collapse in a heap on Sunday, that view could change. 

Yeah. I think we're both similar there. If demons get smashed, your view will change... and for me if we beat the dogs, I'm gonna find it hard keeping the lid on.

[Chook 15,013]

Actually we've had the hardest draw. We're one of only twelve teams that haven't played Melbourne.