Making the 8 not as silly as it sounds

[old dee 23,797]

3 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

I think the 8 is almost set now with only GC and Crows swapping spots. The Dees will be contending for 9-10 spots. 

8-9 wins from 17 games will see us just outside the 8.

For us to win 10+ games will require the team to have a winning mindset and a strong belief. Minimum injuries to key players and the added X factor of petracca and trengove. 

We will win 10 bandicoot but that will not be enough to play finals. 10 wins in 2016 after the 2012 - 14 period will be very good IMO. We still have a lot of inexperienced kids.

2017 is when I expect big things

[Sir Why You Little 37,049]

5 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

I think the 8 is almost set now with only GC and Crows swapping spots. The Dees will be contending for 9-10 spots. 

8-9 wins from 17 games will see us just outside the 8.

For us to win 10+ games will require the team to have a winning mindset and a strong belief. Minimum injuries to key players and the added X factor of petracca and trengove. 

It's in our own hands. 

This list of kids can play. The last 3 weeks have shown that

The disgrace of Round 2 may have been the Gun Shot we needed to finally wake the sleeping lazy Demon...

[Pennant St Dee 13,235]

Lets just worry about the Saints and then focus on the following week.  We are improving at a rate not expected by any outsiders but the fast moving Saints at Etihad is another hurdle which we must get over if we are serious.

[Sir Why You Little 37,049]

1 minute ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Lets just worry about the Saints and then focus on the following week.  We are improving at a rate not expected by any outsiders but the fast moving Saints at Etihad is another hurdle which we must get over if we are serious.

If the boys go in playing as hard as last night we should control the game Riewolt was on one leg late in the game yesterday against GW$...

ATTITUDE DEMONS. 

[Wells 11 5,406]

10 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Lets just worry about the Saints and then focus on the following week.  We are improving at a rate not expected by any outsiders but the fast moving Saints at Etihad is another hurdle which we must get over if we are serious.

Yep. I think the saints will probably be feeling confident taking us on, but the 2016 version of who we are seems both tougher and more fast moving than in the past. Stkilda almost beat Hawthorn , no easy feat, so they ARE  playing great football. This may be more of a test than the last two weeks.

How sweet would it be for Petracca to come in and kick a bag against them. Go dees

[Macca 16,982]

One week at a time? haha ... we're supporters (fans).   We can speculate all we like and it won't make an ounce of difference.

I'm now looking at our remaining games and finding it hard to pencil in many absolute losses ... obviously our toughest games are the 2 Hawthorn clashes, @ Sydney, @ Geelong and @ West Coast.

The rest are all winnable and if we really have advanced we might sneak a win or 3 against the above teams ... teams on the rise have a history of doing that - results are random where top sides drop games that they shouldn't and vice-versa. 

Even Richmond of late have beaten the Hawks and Swans on the back of having only a half a dozen decent footballers - and good teams can have off days and/or get a rash of injuries.  And it might be our turn to get a good run with injuries (touch wood)

Port have dropped away and we've got them twice, the Bulldogs keep getting injuries to their better players, we've got the Crows at home (that's another tough one) and Freo at 'TIO' stadium (Darwin) is suddenly a very winnable game.

If we drop games that we should "now" win, we probably won't play finals but finals can't be ruled out until it's "mathematically impossible"* to do so ... one thing is for sure, the players will believe they can make it.  And so they should too - that's what they are there for.

Supporters hosing down optimistic, speculative murmurings from other supporters always makes me laugh ... it's not as if we can control our own destiny - that's up to the club.  We're just onlookers.  Anyway, dare to dream.

 

*apologies for the cliché but it had to be said

Edited April 25, 2016 by Macca

[monoccular 17,432]

We do now have decent depth to cover for midfield HFF HBF type injuries however there are very many young guys in this group and many will tire / come off the boil later in the season.

That said, given some luck with our talls  remaining available, and not too many senior mid injuries who knows?  Possible but not probable.  Injuries +/- to key players in other teams around us will also play a part.

 

[Sir Why You Little 37,049]

This side could roll like 1987

that is what i kept remembering last night. Everyone was playing for the one team last night. Helping each other. Flying the flag. 

That was what Northey bought to Melbourne...

[Biffen 12,943]

If Max Gawn goes down we might be [censored],

If he plays the year I reckon we are in the 8.

Would Notth be in contention without Goldstein?

 

[bandicoot 1,395]

1 hour ago, Biffen said:

If Max Gawn goes down we might be [censored],

If he plays the year I reckon we are in the 8.

Would Notth be in contention without Goldstein?

 

Not too sure who would cover for the loss of Gwen? Spencer is still injured and not match fit. Pederson? 

[Adam The God 30,272]

13 hours ago, JV7 said:

I know we are only 5 rounds in and the last 2 wins have come against sides who are down & out but we still won them. Having a look at the ladder I honestly feel that only us & Adelaide are the 2 sides outside the 8 that can make it. Port Adelaide, Richmond & Collingwood are cooked. I reckon Gold Coast will drop out for Adelaide.. Leaving a spot for us to take.. Maybe GWS ? The exciting thing is we are in the conversation. Really think us and & Adelaide are the only 2 out of it who can make it 

I still think we'll win between 10-12 games. We will win games we expect us not to and lose games we expect us to win. But 12 games may get us there in such an even season. It's pretty early for this conversation though. In two to three weeks I'd be happy to have it again. If we have two from two, I might start to believe it's possible.

The top eight will consist (in no particular order) of: Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong, Bulldogs, Kangaroos and Adelaide on current form. I'm not a big wrap for West Coast and I think they could crumble as the season progresses, but I think they probably have too much quality to miss out altogether. Gold Coast and GWS are the other two you'd expect to make it, so they're really our major competition for that last spot. The next two rounds will really tell us something. If we can knock off St Kilda (who we should beat) and then go up to QLD and beat the GCS, I think we're a chance, because it's about who we take games off too. That's one less win that GCS have on us. The next fortnight will be fascinating.

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 5,141]

Posted this over on the "Farewell Demonland..." thread but it should've been here:

...It's human nature to constantly be having, or wanting, to think "if this happens, and that happens, and the other happens, then we can be/get/reach such-and-such". Isn't it great that - seemingly all of a sudden - we've moved from having to cling to the least worst 'such-and-such' (we won't get the spoon), the slightly happier schadenfreude such-and-such (team x will be below us and imploding) and even the "we'll win more games than last year" such-and-such, to now be contemplating the this's, that's and the other's that will get us into the 8 (it's only percentage) and maybe even entrench us there? Happier days...!

[Cheesy D. Pun 1,765]

3 hours ago, Biffen said:

If Max Gawn goes down we might be [censored],

If he plays the year I reckon we are in the 8.

Would Notth be in contention without Goldstein?

 

Totally agree with this. Max is the most important player on our list by a mile. Gives us an advantage in the middle in every game, regardless of opponent. 

North have a very good forward line and play a good brand but they too rely heavily on their ruck. Currently a 4-6 finish looks about right for them, however, I would say they are a fringe top-eight team without him.

[John Crow Batty 8,871]

5 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

This side could roll like 1987

that is what i kept remembering last night. Everyone was playing for the one team last night. Helping each other. Flying the flag. 

That was what Northey bought to Melbourne...

I would take your point a little further.  We were great then but lacked enough class to win a flag. I said this last week and I will repeat it.  I keep getting the feeling we could be like Brisbane in 2001. They started quite shakily then got a roll to create a dynasty. I am sure we have the players to do it. Everything right has to fall in place. Just hope I am right and not dreaming too much.

[Mega Malt 9]

These are the teams I think we are going to beat to get in the top 8

St Kilda

Carlton

Fremantle

Adelaide 

[Sir Why You Little 37,049]

21 minutes ago, america de cali said:

I would take your point a little further.  We were great then but lacked enough class to win a flag. I said this last week and I will repeat it.  I keep getting the feeling we could be like Brisbane in 2001. They started quite shakily then got a roll to create a dynasty. I am sure we have the players to do it. Everything right has to fall in place. Just hope I am right and not dreaming too much.

I haven't seen a Melbourne team play with such intensity since 1987. Even in the 90's and 2000 we played with more flair and skill. 

Last night was Roos football

Richmond gave it everything 3 times but they could not crack us. 

It is a good sign that the players now believe the coaches...

[Mazer Rackham 14,971]

We are right now playing well enough to stay on top of all the teams below us. (But of course we have to keep playing this way.)

There is already a divide as there is a game and percentage between us and 11th.

To crack the top 8 we would have to overtake two teams currently above us.

If we assume the top 4 will be North, Hawks, Dogs, Swans (only because that's the current top 4 bar Hawks who I think are better than Cats), that leaves Cats, Eagles, Crows, Suns, Giants.

Who might the two be? Suns and Giants? Based on current form. Eg, we already beat GWS and Suns got to play (& beat) Blues and Dons. On the other hand, Lions beat Suns.

Only time will tell if our form is good enough to snatch some wins from the really good teams above us.

Having played North and nearly pinched it, it seems feasible.

But we need to play more of them to find out. And we don't know how our form will be at Etihad, in Perth, Adelaide.

To talk finals is getting way ahead of ourselves. We just don't know. Predicting finals this far out is like predicting what the weather is going to be on grand final day. It's just a guess.

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,294]

18 hours ago, JV7 said:

I know we are only 5 rounds in and the last 2 wins have come against sides who are down & out but we still won them. Having a look at the ladder I honestly feel that only us & Adelaide are the 2 sides outside the 8 that can make it. Port Adelaide, Richmond & Collingwood are cooked. I reckon Gold Coast will drop out for Adelaide.. Leaving a spot for us to take.. Maybe GWS ? The exciting thing is we are in the conversation. Really think us and & Adelaide are the only 2 out of it who can make it 

We will have to wait for another team to drop out, it wont be GWS, they are a lock.

 

[hardtack 10,548]

6 hours ago, Biffen said:

If Max Gawn goes down we might be [censored],

If he plays the year I reckon we are in the 8.

Would Notth be in contention without Goldstein?

 

As far as I'm concerned, we beat North and the umpires beat us.  This gives me the belief that we will win games against teams above us on the ladder.  I still think we will finish the year in 10th, but would not be too surprised if we did sneak into the eight.

[Sir Why You Little 37,049]

1 hour ago, Ted Fidge said:

We are right now playing well enough to stay on top of all the teams below us. (But of course we have to keep playing this way.)

There is already a divide as there is a game and percentage between us and 11th.

To crack the top 8 we would have to overtake two teams currently above us.

If we assume the top 4 will be North, Hawks, Dogs, Swans (only because that's the current top 4 bar Hawks who I think are better than Cats), that leaves Cats, Eagles, Crows, Suns, Giants.

Who might the two be? Suns and Giants? Based on current form. Eg, we already beat GWS and Suns got to play (& beat) Blues and Dons. On the other hand, Lions beat Suns.

Only time will tell if our form is good enough to snatch some wins from the really good teams above us.

Having played North and nearly pinched it, it seems feasible.

But we need to play more of them to find out. And we don't know how our form will be at Etihad, in Perth, Adelaide.

To talk finals is getting way ahead of ourselves. We just don't know. Predicting finals this far out is like predicting what the weather is going to be on grand final day. It's just a guess.

Turn up to games with the right Preperation & attitude And we can beat opponents..

it doesn't matter what form a team is in or what the past record is. This side can get on a roll if they ALL believe. The last 3 weeks have shown that. 

 

[deanox 9,935]

Had a review of the fixture and finals is definitely possible. Realistic for melbourne?  Maybe not.  But I'll go into enough games thinking we should them. 

 

5 games: Carlton, Freo, Saints x 2, Brisbane, gives us 8 wins. If we don't win all of those we wouldn't deserve to be there. 

 

6 games: Suns x2, Port x 2, Collingwood, Adelaide (at the G). Determine whether we make finals or not.  Win 4 and we make it. Win 3 and we probably won't. 

 

The remaining 6: Geelong,  Hawthorn x2, West Coast,  Sydney,  Bulldogs, i expect to lose.  But if we can pinch one it takes the pressure of the other matches. 

 

 

Of the 3 groups I think we'll win 4 (lose one against the saints, win 3, and win 0, leaving us with 10 for the year. Solid improvement, and we'll finish 10th, felt we should have done better but will comfortably play finals next year. 

I'm happy to be surprised. 

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 5,141]

A bit of a spin on what others have already analysed:

Next week almost seems like an 8-point game. If we win, you could think the return match in Rd 17 at the same venue becomes similarly winable, with possibly the reverse being the case if we lose.

In the 'win-win' case, of the other 14 rounds remaining we should believe Brisbane at the 'G, Port in Alice Springs, the QB game, the Suns at the 'G, Freo in Darwin if they are sufficiently demoralised by then, and Carlton at the 'G are wins, That's 11 wins (current 3 + 2xSaints + those 6), with 9 other games then left to prognosticate on: Suns on The Coast, Dogs, Hawks (twice!!) and Crows at the 'G, Swans at the other 'G, the other Coast in the west, Port in Adelaide and Geelong at Kardinia Park.

Could 13 wins squeeze us in? Port in Adelaide seems the most possible of these (we ran them very close there last year), or maybe one of the Suns, Dogs or Adelaide games (we have no particular hoodoos with any of them). Should we only get one of those 4, what a game Rd 23 might be! Combine the memories of Kardinia Park last year and the role it played in the last round of '87! Be still my beating heart (it certainly will be beating fast on 26 or 27 or 28 August "TBC" if this scenario eventuates!)

 

Edited April 25, 2016 by Timothy Reddan-A'Blew
Punctuation. I'm anal.

[Adam The God 30,272]

3 hours ago, Sir Why You Little said:

I haven't seen a Melbourne team play with such intensity since 1987. Even in the 90's and 2000 we played with more flair and skill. 

Last night was Roos football

Richmond gave it everything 3 times but they could not crack us. 

It is a good sign that the players now believe the coaches...

I think the issue for the last season and a bit is that they didn't believe in themselves. I think they've believed in Roos since he walked through the door.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

If we were a little bit better overall, we'd be 5-0 and alone on top. I realise it's easy to say that, as we got out of jail against giants, but still...

I don't think we'll make finals, but does anyone else here get sulky and pissy when the "road to the finals" articles start getting written in the last 6 weeks and we're nowhere near the 8?

I don't even care that much about making finals. I came in with very little in the way of expectations this year. But I'll love watching us being finals potential for absolutely as long as I can. Even if it's only mathematical.

I will say that our so-called "tough" draw is looking more gentle now, given the form lines of teams. However, our last 4 weeks will be really, really tough.

[Sir Why You Little 37,049]

3 hours ago, AdamFarr said:

I think the issue for the last season and a bit is that they didn't believe in themselves. I think they've believed in Roos since he walked through the door.

I agree. I think the players believed the theory of Roos and the coaches but they have now felt the results..The energy is growing...