NATIONAL DRAFT PICKS 3 & 7

[Mach5 4,767]

At this point would not be surprised at all if we took Curnow at three.

Meaning any of Parish, Oliver, Parish, Mathieson, Wiedeman, McKay, Milera will be available at 7.

Probably Parish would be available too.

[hells bells 2,023]

Could we potentially go a Hawks (Roughead, Franklin) draft of two KP forwards? I'm thinking Weideman at 3 and McKay at 7?

A lot would depend on the results of Weideman's testing whether the club thought it a safe bet.

Also if the club were confident that Prestia will come to the club next year they might load up on talls this year while at the bottom end of the ladder.

It would provide another tall forward to partner Jesse and a 200cm tall forward/ruck noting that we only really have Gawn, Spencer and a very raw King as real rucks at the moment.

[Ted Lasso 19,513]

Could we potentially go a Hawks (Roughead, Franklin) draft of two KP forwards? I'm thinking Weideman at 3 and McKay at 7?

A lot would depend on the results of Weideman's testing whether the club thought it a safe bet.

Also if the club were confident that Prestia will come to the club next year they might load up on talls this year while at the bottom end of the ladder.

It would provide another tall forward to partner Jesse and a 200cm tall forward/ruck noting that we only really have Gawn, Spencer and a very raw King as real rucks at the moment.

Interchange cap imo is going to do two things.

encourage stay at home forwards a little bit more, and probably mean any third forwards are going to be backup ruck or resting ruckman

i don't think we'll be going for any more than one tall in the draft given we still have Hogan, Dawes, Gawn who'd all be at this stage in the 22 i'd say.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,048]

Just an odd thought here. What would happen to the draft if pick 1 or 2 were bid on Mills and Sydney declined to match it? I suspect chaos would ensue, and I really wonder how it would shape the remaining picks. Would we take either Schache or Weitering if they were still there? I would assume so, but we DO need mids rather badly. But then if we did, we would still have access to a very good mid at seven.

[ben russell 764]

Just an odd thought here. What would happen to the draft if pick 1 or 2 were bid on Mills and Sydney declined to match it? I suspect chaos would ensue, and I really wonder how it would shape the remaining picks. Would we take either Schache or Weitering if they were still there? I would assume so, but we DO need mids rather badly. But then if we did, we would still have access to a very good mid at seven.

Sydney will match it though. There is no doubt about that.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,048]

Sydney will match it though. There is no doubt about that.

At what point does it become prohibitively expensive for them? We're all assuming that Melbourne will bid pick three for him which is 2,234 points, but if Brisbane go early that's 2,517. Where are they going to find another 283 points to match it? Then there is the admittedly remote chance that Carlton will bid on him at 1, which would jack the price up to 3,000. At some point Sydney would have to look at what they're paying and just say "hell, we'll trade for him in two years."

For reference:

If we bid they have to burn their first three picks and downgrade their fourth (1,787.2 required).

If Brisbane bid they have to burn their first four picks and downgrade their fifth (2,013.6 required).

If Carlton bid they don't have enough points to match it in this draft (2,400 required).

[Ted Lasso 19,513]

Just an odd thought here. What would happen to the draft if pick 1 or 2 were bid on Mills and Sydney declined to match it? I suspect chaos would ensue, and I really wonder how it would shape the remaining picks. Would we take either Schache or Weitering if they were still there? I would assume so, but we DO need mids rather badly. But then if we did, we would still have access to a very good mid at seven.

If that happened and say Carlton bid pick 1 for him, Weitering would be a lion, and we'd be silly not to take Schache at 3 i would have thought, can't imagine it happening though, we bid pick 2 for Heeney last year.

[rpfc 28,392]

I dont see it as a necessity to have academies. Sure it would be great to have local lads playing for your team, but its a national comp. I reckon the QLDer's didnt mind cheering on Jonathon Brown

I think the fairest option is to scrap the academies and give each team a crack at the years best talent

Jon Brown was a father son from a Fitzroy player.

There is a need to define a pathway to locals into the local system and the better ones have a chance to stay locally.

The next Ablett that comes out of West Sydney just has to be playing for GWS - this is what they are trying to ensure.

I don't have a problem with it anymore - once that Ablett gets taken in the draft with the weighting, the won't have another pick in the draft - they will pay their price.

[RalphiusMaximus 6,048]

Jon Brown was a father son from a Fitzroy player.

There is a need to define a pathway to locals into the local system and the better ones have a chance to stay locally.

The next Ablett that comes out of West Sydney just has to be playing for GWS - this is what they are trying to ensure.

I don't have a problem with it anymore - once that Ablett gets taken in the draft with the weighting, the won't have another pick in the draft - they will pay their price.

I kind of agree with this. I think the points system has worked reasonably well for a first run. We're seeing Sydney taking themselves out of the first two rounds to secure Mills which is fair. GWS traded away top picks to get more points and will still not have a live pick before the fourth round or so to get their two guys. Some have complained about trading top ten picks for multiple lower picks to get extra points, but I think this is a good thing. It's giving clubs that don't have access to academy picks a better chance to pick up top end talent by trading for those top picks. I was very skeptical at first with this whole system, but it really does appear to be working.

[Gator 17,332]

Just an odd thought here. What would happen to the draft if pick 1 or 2 were bid on Mills and Sydney declined to match it? I suspect chaos would ensue, and I really wonder how it would shape the remaining picks. Would we take either Schache or Weitering if they were still there? I would assume so, but we DO need mids rather badly. But then if we did, we would still have access to a very good mid at seven.

Clubs go in with a list of preferences and tick off accordingly. It's no biggie.

[DeeSpencer 25,686]

Jon Brown was a father son from a Fitzroy player.

There is a need to define a pathway to locals into the local system and the better ones have a chance to stay locally.

The next Ablett that comes out of West Sydney just has to be playing for GWS - this is what they are trying to ensure.

I don't have a problem with it anymore - once that Ablett gets taken in the draft with the weighting, the won't have another pick in the draft - they will pay their price.

The problem is if it's a consistent supply of top talent each year that makes topping up pretty easy. If you always have elite juniors pushing through then you will always be a trade destination and you can target with late picks for role players. It reminds me of what Hawthorn did trading away picks for players (like Hale, Gibson, Lake etc) and still finding some value in the later rounds to support their gun drafting of the early to mid 00's.

Champion players (which often come from champion juniors) also bring leadership as well. A handover from one experienced leader to an up and coming junior leader protects culture through the years.

I kind of agree with this. I think the points system has worked reasonably well for a first run. We're seeing Sydney taking themselves out of the first two rounds to secure Mills which is fair. GWS traded away top picks to get more points and will still not have a live pick before the fourth round or so to get their two guys. Some have complained about trading top ten picks for multiple lower picks to get extra points, but I think this is a good thing. It's giving clubs that don't have access to academy picks a better chance to pick up top end talent by trading for those top picks. I was very skeptical at first with this whole system, but it really does appear to be working.

It's worked out well for the bottom clubs like us, Carl and Essendon who had the currency and desire to deal as well as the academy clubs.

But it's screwed the likes of Port, Richmond and other clubs who can't get the top picks because they don't have the currency or desire for them. Their mid/late first and 2nd round picks are the lifeblood of their future and they're now going to get pushed back by all the academy clubs using picks in the 30's and 40's to create top 10 or top 20 picks.

If you are a mid tier club just trying to find the last piece of the puzzle then getting pushed back a few slots in the first round of the draft can really hurt.

To use the Hawks again as a good example - they had drafted a lot of gun kids up until the 2007 draft but getting Cyril Rioli at pick 12 might just have been the player to win the 2008 flag for them. He was great all year and gave them an extra dimension up forward with the Clarko Cluster and then was great in the grand final. If they get shuffled back a few spots maybe they take Addam Maric and the rest is history.

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

If that happened and say Carlton bid pick 1 for him, Weitering would be a lion, and we'd be silly not to take Schache at 3 i would have thought, can't imagine it happening though, we bid pick 2 for Heeney last year.

In this unlikely hypothetical, I can't see the Lions going with anyone other than Schache. A gun KPP prospect that WANTS to play for Brisbane is something that they won't pass up on.

I'll take Weitering, thanks!

[Mad_Melbourne 877]

To use the Hawks again as a good example - they had drafted a lot of gun kids up until the 2007 draft but getting Cyril Rioli at pick 12 might just have been the player to win the 2008 flag for them. He was great all year and gave them an extra dimension up forward with the Clarko Cluster and then was great in the grand final. If they get shuffled back a few spots maybe they take Addam Maric and the rest is history.

If my aunty had balls she'd be my uncle.

But on this, I still think that Hawthorn would have won the flag, because it was the system that won them the flag, combined with good players all over the ground. Addam Maric, may have been a premiership player with a more clearly defined role and better coachind and leadership associated with the Hawthorn football club. But who knows.

[dtrinh 71]

As history shows, picking key position players at the top end of the draft is a difficult choice. They usually are standouts in their U18 season and their is no guarantee that they will succeed. Reiwoldt, franklin, roughead are a diamond dozen.

Looking at previous drafts, we know that they take time to develop but apart form Hogan recently and Nic Nat: Boyd, Patton, Wright, McCartin. None of them have really stood up. Of course for some injuries have prevented that, but at this stage just small signs they may become ok AFL players. Melbourne took Lucas Cook who was considered All Australian- look where he is now.

This year Weidemann and Curnow have only shown glimpses and haven't really dominated at their U18 level. Of course injury has prevented this, but still, there have only been glimpses of talent.

Would we be willing to risk either one or both of these picks on highly speculative talls which may or may not succeed.

Parish would be a much safer bet with another midfielder at this stage.

[hells bells 2,023]

My major concern is our lack of key position forwards.

If you take out Hogan the cupboard is pretty bare.

Dawes - past his best

Pederson - solid without being a standout

Frost - raw and unproven, potentially a defender only.

King - raw and unproven,

Then we have defenders who could potentially play a role forward:

Dunn, Garland, T. McDonald - have been tried with limited success

O. McDonald raw and unproven.

IMO our midfield is on the way to being very strong with great potential. We took 5 quality mids in last years draft.

Tall forwards and probably rucks are where we are light. It's hard to get quality tall forwards late in the draft. I think we are going to have to go at least 1 tall at 3 or 7 potentially both could be talls.

If Hogan gets injured and misses a chunk of next year who is going to step into the role?

HB

[bing181 9,219]

If Hogan gets injured and misses a chunk of next year who is going to step into the role?

Not the kid we pick up at 3 or 7, that's for sure.

[Stinger 463]

As history shows, picking key position players at the top end of the draft is a difficult choice. They usually are standouts in their U18 season and their is no guarantee that they will succeed. Reiwoldt, franklin, roughead are a diamond dozen.

Looking at previous drafts, we know that they take time to develop but apart form Hogan recently and Nic Nat: Boyd, Patton, Wright, McCartin. None of them have really stood up. Of course for some injuries have prevented that, but at this stage just small signs they may become ok AFL players. Melbourne took Lucas Cook who was considered All Australian- look where he is now.

This year Weidemann and Curnow have only shown glimpses and haven't really dominated at their U18 level. Of course injury has prevented this, but still, there have only been glimpses of talent.

Would we be willing to risk either one or both of these picks on highly speculative talls which may or may not succeed.

Parish would be a much safer bet with another midfielder at this stage.

Wright and McCartin have played for one season and you're already criticizing them? How long did it take tomahawk to find his feet at AFL level? The way hogan came onto the scene this year and dominated is an absolute rarity.

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

Not the kid we pick up at 3 or 7, that's for sure.

It's rare to find a KPP prospect that will have the impact that Hogan did for us this year, but we really do need to prepare our list with an eye to the future. We need to have options other than Hogan in the forward line. Right now, that's the biggest deficiency that I see. Dawes is not the answer, neither is Pedersen.

I really hope to see us go for Weideman with one of our early selections.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

Could we potentially go a Hawks (Roughead, Franklin) draft of two KP forwards? I'm thinking Weideman at 3 and McKay at 7?

A lot would depend on the results of Weideman's testing whether the club thought it a safe bet.

Also if the club were confident that Prestia will come to the club next year they might load up on talls this year while at the bottom end of the ladder.

It would provide another tall forward to partner Jesse and a 200cm tall forward/ruck noting that we only really have Gawn, Spencer and a very raw King as real rucks at the moment.

Reckon it'd be safer to pick two mids with picks 3 & 7 than (slightly) speculative talls.

Parish and any of Oliver/Mathieson/Curnow for me.

[beelzebub 23,353]

I feel some maybe on the verge of some form of desperation as they make their way through this mire.

We have an issue where we'd like to find a 'foil' a partner of some sort for Hogan and to just bolster our fwd line anyway. Thats fine for what it is. No one is really going to argue the point. Its a given.

Then we have that there are a couple of KPP types in the draft. Neither is a truly standout type. Neither has lit the world on fire. Both can play though one has , for rmine, serious fitness/injury concerns.

Both lads play(ed) in leagues where strapping young bigguns get to strut their stuff. They dont get an awful lot of attention from the defenders , not this the same way they will at the next level(s)

With rare exception the era of being able to size up a absolute gun and pick him I think is over. There is far more scrutiny and attention paid to draftees than it wa back when Roughy Buddy etc were swallowed up. That was then and this is now.

KPP notoriously take years longer to come on than utility/mids.

How I see it is. Unless you are absolutely desperate for a fwd /back of any kind then you dont waste pointy end picks on a so-so player. Let another roll the dice here. Picks 3 and & will guarantee ( all but ) one of them will succeed and become at worst a decent b grade utility/mid. Chances are one will become an A grader. Possibly one might indeed become elite...Bargain... With luck both might turn out more than alright. But to me just using one pick on a mid is again roling the dice when you dont have to.

Roos has long been an advocate of snaffling players a little bit along the path. Im with him. If you have the luxury of an already high functioning team/list yo can do what you like almost. We dont. We have quite a bit of talent, but a lot of the value sits on the 'potential' side of the ledger.

It wont matter who the hell is in our fwd 50 arc if the ball is spending most of the game down the other end. Build a midfield that is hard at it and relentless....and do that first. We can fill that fwd spot in some fashion even if only temporarily until we can snaffle another player whos got a bit of experience. More a known item.as it were..

If you dont know what youre really getting....shy away.

[beelzebub 23,353]

Not the kid we pick up at 3 or 7, that's for sure.

This is what I dont get... no kid as a future fwd/kpp is going to be able to do that, especially out of this draft. Its a folly of an assumption wouldnt you agree ?

[beelzebub 23,353]

It's rare to find a KPP prospect that will have the impact that Hogan did for us this year, but we really do need to prepare our list with an eye to the future. We need to have options other than Hogan in the forward line. Right now, that's the biggest deficiency that I see. Dawes is not the answer, neither is Pedersen.

I really hope to see us go for Weideman with one of our early selections.

whos to say we havent some ability rising already on the list ? Theyd also be far closer to playing ( in a meaningful way ) than any tallish kid plucked at 3 or 7

We arent going to solve ALL of our needs in this draft...only a fool would try. Theres next year and the next etc.

Get the midfield sorted and on its way and in years to come that only needs topping up whilst you spend your picks and time garnering the players you need in other positions. A systematic approach is far more assured of success rather than random panic

[Gator 17,332]

I feel some maybe on the verge of some form of desperation as they make their way through this mire.

We have an issue where we'd like to find a 'foil' a partner of some sort for Hogan and to just bolster our fwd line anyway. Thats fine for what it is. No one is really going to argue the point. Its a given.

Then we have that there are a couple of KPP types in the draft. Neither is a truly standout type. Neither has lit the world on fire. Both can play though one has , for rmine, serious fitness/injury concerns.

Both lads play(ed) in leagues where strapping young bigguns get to strut their stuff. They dont get an awful lot of attention from the defenders , not this the same way they will at the next level(s)

With rare exception the era of being able to size up a absolute gun and pick him I think is over. There is far more scrutiny and attention paid to draftees than it wa back when Roughy Buddy etc were swallowed up. That was then and this is now.

KPP notoriously take years longer to come on than utility/mids.

How I see it is. Unless you are absolutely desperate for a fwd /back of any kind then you dont waste pointy end picks on a so-so player. Let another roll the dice here. Picks 3 and & will guarantee ( all but ) one of them will succeed and become at worst a decent b grade utility/mid. Chances are one will become an A grader. Possibly one might indeed become elite...Bargain... With luck both might turn out more than alright. But to me just using one pick on a mid is again roling the dice when you dont have to.

Roos has long been an advocate of snaffling players a little bit along the path. Im with him. If you have the luxury of an already high functioning team/list yo can do what you like almost. We dont. We have quite a bit of talent, but a lot of the value sits on the 'potential' side of the ledger.

It wont matter who the hell is in our fwd 50 arc if the ball is spending most of the game down the other end. Build a midfield that is hard at it and relentless....and do that first. We can fill that fwd spot in some fashion even if only temporarily until we can snaffle another player whos got a bit of experience. More a known item.as it were..

If you dont know what youre really getting....shy away.

You want an instant fix. The club is building a list that will compete for a flag in 2020.

Having a quality key forward to partner Hogan is part of that puzzle.

I'll back the recruiters if they use P3 or P7 on one. Quality key forwards are nearly always drafted at the pointy end.

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,730]

whos to say we havent some ability rising already on the list ? Theyd also be far closer to playing ( in a meaningful way ) than any tallish kid plucked at 3 or 7

We arent going to solve ALL of our needs in this draft...only a fool would try. Theres next year and the next etc.

Get the midfield sorted and on its way and in years to come that only needs topping up whilst you spend your picks and time garnering the players you need in other positions. A systematic approach is far more assured of success rather than random panic

We've been sorting out the midfield the last 2-3 years. Tyson, Salem, Petracca, Brayshaw, ANB, Stretch, Viney, Melksham, Vandenberg- these guys are all midfield talents brought in recently. We will also definitely bring in another mid with one of our first two picks.

I am 100% certain we will take a forward with one of our first two picks- I'm not sure who it will be though.

Edited November 16, 2015 by Is Dom Is Good

[Good Times Grimes 2,396]

whos to say we havent some ability rising already on the list ? Theyd also be far closer to playing ( in a meaningful way ) than any tallish kid plucked at 3 or 7

We arent going to solve ALL of our needs in this draft...only a fool would try. Theres next year and the next etc.

Get the midfield sorted and on its way and in years to come that only needs topping up whilst you spend your picks and time garnering the players you need in other positions. A systematic approach is far more assured of success rather than random panic

I would hardly call drafting a tall random panic.

It seems as though the mids available in this draft are also relatively speculative with no clear standouts other than a couple that we don't have access to.

It's known that talls take longer to develop, so now may be the time to draft a highly rated one so that by the time we're competitive he's ready to step in and play a role for us. We all know how expensive it is to try and lure a good tall via free agency or trade, and I think we'll have to develop our own if we're going to afford to keep all the young guns that we currently have.

We really don't have too many tall forward prospects. King is very speculative. Same goes for OMac, and it seems he'll continue as a defender. Not sure what the vision is for Frost, but I think he's a defender as well.

As has already been illustrated on here, the best KPPs go early in the draft. We've already given up our first rounder for next season, and hopefully by the time we're drafting in 2017 our pick won't be high.

I see now as our chance to get a partner for Hogan to form a dominant tandem for the next decade.