Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 12

[Demonland 72,176]

THE ALCHEMIST by Whispering Jack

This week Melbourne faces Essendon for the second time since the February 7, 2013 media conference dubbed by former ASADA boss Richard Ings as the "blackest day in Australian sport". It is now widely acknowledged that the conference which suggested that there was rampant use in our sport, and in particular the country's two main football codes, of prohibited performance-enhancing substances known as peptides was a desperate ploy by the then government facing annihilation in the federal election due later in the year.

Sixteen months later, the government agency charged with investigating the claims, the resource-stretched Australian Sports Anti-Doping Authority (ASADA), has yet to issue its report and, other than one case where a rugby league player volunteered his guilt (and 10 months later still awaits his fate), there is little to show in terms of concrete action against the clubs and players allegedly involved. True, the leagues which run the two codes named have carried out their investigations and in the case of the AFL, it sanctioned Essendon and some employees on governance issues but the excruciatingly long wait for a final outcome, is taking its toll on all who are involved.

The view with which I agree based on what I have heard and read about the Bombers' programme and the World Anti-Doping Authority (WADA) Code to which the AFL is a subscriber, is that ultimately some players from the Essendon Football Club will be penalised for their participation in a plan that went terribly wrong. The Bombers may well have undertaken the project to improve their playing group and its prospects of winning but it seems they might have employed alchemy instead of sports science.

Clubs make mistakes. At the same time that Essendon engaged James Hird to take the helm as coach of their club, Melbourne employed Mark Neeld who came with excellent references and a significant role as an assistant to Mick Malthouse in Collingwood's 2010 premiership. Neeld saw the need to overhaul the Melbourne style of play and to bring it in line with the leading clubs, he sought to emphasise the defensive side of the game. He knew his list was brittle and not yet suited physically to the change in style and he didn't resort to the chemistry of the Bombers but instead tried to bring about the change naturally, a process which was going to take years and a measure of patience. In the interim however, he lacked the expertise and experience in the ways of dealing with such a list and was also burdened with a number of other issues during his brief term which he was unable to handle or to overcome.

Neeld's failure was ultimately due to a different science to that which led to Hird's downfall*. He failed the simple basics of man management and ultimately this brought his term as coach to an abrupt end almost exactly twelve months ago.

So the two clubs, Essendon and Melbourne, will lock horns at twilight on Sunday with different men at the helm, each charged with the mission of bringing renewed energy to his respective club by using a different brand of chemistry to that which was previously tried and which in each case proved to be an abject failure. This is the perfect prescription for an absorbing battle.

* I use the word "downfall" which might sound a little strange given that he is currently advancing himself in his education somewhere in the French summer and earning $1m as part of his "punishment" in the peptides scandal but that is the way of the AFL in 2014. I don't believe that he will or should coach in 2015 or beyond for that matter, but of course, that's not my call.

THE GAME

Essendon v Melbourne at the MCG Sunday, 15 June, 2014 at 4.40pm.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Essendon 127 wins Melbourne 80 wins 2 draws

At the MCG Essendon 64 wins Melbourne 44 wins 1 draw

The last five years: Essendon 2 wins Melbourne 3 wins

The Coaches Thompson 0 wins Roos 0 wins

MEDIA

Fox Footy Channel at 4.30pm (live)

RADIO 3AW SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

Essendon $1.35 to win Melbourne $3.25 to win

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Essendon 28.16.184 defeated Melbourne 5.6.36 Round 2, 2013 at the MCG

It was a disheartened and dispirited Melbourne team that put in a disgraceful and unacceptable performance for a match played so early in the season.

THE TEAMS

ESSENDON

B: Jake Carlisle, Cale Hooker, Courtenay Dempsey

HB: Michael Hibberd, Michael Hurley, Mark Baguley

C: Brendon Goddard, Dyson Heppell, Jake Melksham

HF: Zach Merrett, Joe Daniher, David Zaharakis

F: Jason Winderlich, Patrick Ryder, Patrick Ambrose

Foll: Tom Bellchambers, Heath Hocking, Brent Stanton

I/C: Paul Chapman, Dustin Fletcher, Ben Howlett, David Myers

EMG: Travis Colyer, Cory DellOlio, Elliott Kavanagh

IN: Michael Hurley, Jason Winderlich

OUT: Cory DellOlio, Jobe Watson (hip surgery)

MELBOURNE

B: Jeremy Howe, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta

HB: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Jack Grimes

C: Bernie Vince, Jack Viney, Daniel Cross

HF: Nathan Jones, Chris Dawes, Rohan Bail

F: Cam Pedersen, James Frawley, Jack Watts

Foll: Mark Jamar, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson

I/C: Dean Kent, Jordie McKenzie, Aidan Riley Christian Salem

EMG: Max Gawn, Dean Kent, Dan Nicholson, Dean Terlich

IN: Dean Kent, Jordie McKenzie, Aidan Riley

OUT: Max Gawn Jay Kennedy-Harris Dean Terlich

SHOW-CAUSE

In the days and weeks to come, "show-cause" will no doubt become a catchword in AFL circles but on Sunday, it will be up to Melbourne to show-cause to the football world as to why it deserves its respect and recognition.

This is particularly so in light of two entirely unrelated matters - the team's last meeting against Essendon in round 2 of last year which resulted in an embarrassing 148-point slaughter that rocked the club to its very foundations and the team's three goal performance at its last start against Collingwood.

I doubt that we are going to see Paul Roos address the team in the rooms before the game in the way that Mark Neeld did last year. Roos is too cool a customer for that. I don't expect his team to leak goals like a sieve at an average of seven goals per quarter either. Roos has tightened up the team's defensive structures this year but there are clear issues with his team's attacking side.

Notwithstanding, it was an umpiring error that probably prevented his team from going into the final break last week on close to even terms. It is generally conceded that the umpire who disallowed Bernie Vinces goal late in the third quarter did so in error and the Pies were lucky that one or two other line ball decisions went their way but you're never going to win arguing the toss with umpires and, in the end, Collingwood won because it was the better side on the day but Melbourne proved it was at least a ten goal better side than last year.

However, in this game, Melbourne needs to show far greater improvement than simply ten goals. The absence of Essendon's leader and major playmaker Tim Watson, will help but (and pardon me for saying this) the jury is definitely out on the effect of the Bombers' problems with ASADA. The dramatic events following the issue of show-cause notices could be a help or a hindrance and we won't know which way it will go until the first ball is bounced. In the past, this team has been galvanised by the difficult circumstances it has faced over the peptides scandal and it should be remembered that the round two triumph was only their second official game after the darkest day news broke and they won their first against the Crows with relative ease as well.

Apart from knowing that Essendon is not going to crack easily under pressure, it also is experiencing winning form at the moment having lost just one game since Anzac Day and that was against the in-form Swans. They may not have been all that impressive at times but four out of five aint bad. They might have lost their skipper but they do have Michael Hurley and Jason Winderlich back in the side so it would be a fool who considers them ripe for the picking.

Melbourne continues to be well served by its batch of 2014 newcomers and, despite Dom Tysons reduced output when tagged last week, the midfield led by Nathan Jones, Bernie Vince and Daniel Cross as the stopper is making heads turn.

This game will be a close heart stopper and Im looking for Melbourne to convert a little better than it did last week. If it doesnt, we can expect a similar result.

[SaberFang 7,151]

So does Cross tag Heppell, Zaha or Fletcher? With Jobe out they will be desperate for someone to step up and show real leadership. We need to negate that from the opening bounce and leave them leaderless.

Should be a ripping match though. We won't be favorites by any stretch but I think we'll win comfortably. They haven't looked the real deal since the start of the season, only notching up a few unconvincing wins along the way but avoiding scrutiny.

[Whispering_Jack 30,054]

Looking forward to team selection tonight, I have a feeling that it's time to make some changes and not just for the sake of change.

We will be coming off a six day break so it might be timely to take some pressure of the younger blokes like Kennedy-Harris and Salem and to bring in a few who played last Saturday like e.g. Blease, Kent, McKenzie (who would be coming off an eight day break)..

Lamashtu is right about the need to keep the tabs on Heppell - Bomber Thompson has already indicated he will be relying more on Heppell now that Jobe's out for the rest of the year (and who knows - it might be two years after that too )

[Vipercrunch 2,827]

Tagging Stanton to some degree is always very effective against them too. I would put Cross on Heppell and Jordie or Grimes on Stanton.

Having seen the Casey report now, I think the changes will be:-

In: Kent, Mckenzie

Out: Salem, JKH

[JV7 2,351]

Would think on the back of 6 day break Salem will almost certainly be rested. JKH maybe not seeing he was the sub. I think zaharakis is there most damaging mid after Watson, is a goal-kicker which makes him a bit more dangerous then Heppell but not sure if cross would be able to match zakas pace...

IN: Kent, Riley

OUT: Salem, Gawn

BTW it's round 13 not 12 as the title thread says

[DistrACTION Jackson 8,734]

I love Gawn but I'd be swapping him and Salem for Mckenzie and Kent. We are too top heavy so kent and jkh forward will help. Also need jkh to start on the ground

[Goodvibes 3,596]

I'm guessing Gawn and Salem out, McKenzie and Kent in.

[JV7 2,351]

Essendon players finally have been issued show cause notices from ASADA.. Surely this has to help our cause on Sunday, would have to be distracting for the players.

Edited June 12, 2014 by JV7

[45HG 1,539]

ESSENDON

B:
HB:
C:
HF:
F:
FOLL:
I/C (from)

Is this their final lineup, then?

[The Song Formerly Known As 6,479]

Essendon players finally have been issued show cause notices from ASADA.. Surely this has to help our cause on Sunday, would have to be distracting for the players.

Can someone please explain what a "show cause" notice actually means.

[dazzledavey36 54,889]

IN: Jordie McKenzie, Aidan Riley, Dean Kent, Daniel Nicholson

OUT: Jay Kennedy-Harris

Edited June 12, 2014 by dazzledavey36

[JV7 2,351]

Can someone please explain what a "show cause" notice actually means.

I think it just means that they will have a case to answer Edited June 12, 2014 by JV7

[bing181 9,219]

Can someone please explain what a "show cause" notice actually means.

"The show cause notice is a preliminary procedural step, which gives recipients the opportunity to argue why they should not be placed on ASADA’s register of findings and charged with a doping offence."

i.e. Unless they've got very good explanations (or very good lawyers?), charges will follow.

[Whispering_Jack 30,054]

ESSENDON

B:

HB:

C:

HF:

F:

FOLL:

I/C (from)

Is this their final lineup, then?

No. You can fit Chapman and Goddard in there somewhere.

[The Song Formerly Known As 6,479]

"The show cause notice is a preliminary procedural step, which gives recipients the opportunity to argue why they should not be placed on ASADA’s register of findings and charged with a doping offence."

i.e. Unless they've got very good explanations (or very good lawyers?), charges will follow.

this will either unite, or break them this Sunday.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Essendon

In: J.Winderlich, M.Hurley, T.Colyer, E.Kavanagh

Out: J.Watson (hip)

Melbourne

In: J.McKenzie, A.Riley, D.Kent, D.Nicholson

Out: J.Kennedy-Harris

Handy

[Elusive Tunbridge 795]

I'm guessing that Salem will also be out and the bench will be Kent, Gawn, Terlich and either McKenzie or Riley.

[Older demon 2,741]

Note McKenzie, Riley Kent & Salem NOT named in casey team all other emergencies are named. I imagine 1 player may play a half like Jordie did last week

[Lil_red_fire_engine 11,175]

Being McKenzie, Kent, Riley and Salem are not in the Casey team and others on the extended bench are that may tell us what to expect.

[DeeSpencer 25,687]

Hard to pick the bench. Wouldn't surprise me if they went any combination. But I'd leave out Nicholson and Gawn (too tall) and then consider which 4 to pick from the rest.

McKenzie (or Cross) could well play a half back/tagging role on Zaharakis, making Terlich the other to miss out with Riley and Kent on the bench, Salem staying in as the sub.

[Jack7 528]

Very costly dropped mark JKH!

Hope Kent gets a game,we need his line breaking runs,i think Roosy thinks like me

[dees189227 12,391]

what about cross to BJ? He is a real danger player. Maybe vince to heppell

[DemonOX 8,791]

Very costly dropped mark JKH!

Hope Kent gets a game,we need his line breaking runs,i think Roosy thinks like me

Wouldn't think that would be the only reason Jack.

Also maybe cause he went to defence and should have been in the forwards and he may also need a rest too.

[monoccular 17,427]

No. You can fit Chapman and Goddard in there somewhere.

and Zaharakis who refused the jobes jabs

Very costly dropped mark JKH!

Hope Kent gets a game,we need his line breaking runs,i think Roosy thinks like me

I don't think Roos has dropped JFK for one dropped mark, but rather has reasonably decided that the guy needs a break from AFL senior footy for a week or few.

Dropping him for one dropped mark is something that guy who used to try to coach us would do - Roos has better people skills than that, and I suspect would have told him all week that it is times to take a breather. Maybe even told him before the QB game.

[hardtack 10,537]

ESSENDON

B: Fletcher

HB:

C:

HF:

F:

FOLL:

I/C (from)

Is this their final lineup, then?

Fixed it for you