When will the "rebuilding" end?

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

I'm not trying to be too critical, it's just that it seems that since 2000 Melbourne have had these two to three year "rebuilding" plans and it feels as though some mediocre performances are being accepted because it's all part of this seemingly never ending development period.

Obviously the MFC is always looking to the future and rightly so, it's just that at times it's as if they are not making the best team for now.

Any thoughts?

[CarnTheDees 52]

As long as ND has another year on his contract, there will always be next year.

Our time to win a flag has to be with Neitz still around. ND has to bite the bullet and possibly give up some picks in a strong draft (make long term sacrifices for short term gain) to lure some players who will help us win a flag in the next 2 years.

Our immediate concerns are key defenders and another top shelf midfielder.

Looking longer term, we need a replacement for Neitz (Newton?) and White (Neaves?)

[leucopogon 1,468]

I too am starting to believe its a case of now or never for the Demons. It's sad to see legends of the AFL bow out without ever having tasted premiership glory like Rohan Smith. I'd hate that to happen to Neita as well. I think we must trade heavily our draft picks for established key defenders, like we did when we got Jamie Shanahan and Anthony Ingerson (two decent, established key position backmen that then helped us build up towards a premiership tilt in 2000, albeit an unsuccessful one). I think we need to do the same this upcoming post-season. I can't think of who we could try to target though.

They have to be ready to make an immediate impact like Pickett did this season. I don't think we can afford to trade for someone like Polak for example who's unproven. Trouble is, good key defenders are probably the most valuable members of a squad so at what cost will a good one be traded for? Our two top picks plus a fringey like Wheatley? What about our top pick plus Yze and Holland, I'm probably dreaming. Our good key backmen are undersized (Carrol and Rivers).

I'm not sure I agree with the need for another key midfielder, I think we're about right in this department, I reckon McLean, Sylvia and Jones are going to scorch the turf next season, particularly Brock and really step up. We have enough outsiders (TJ, Bruce, Green, Ward, Yze) so I reckon that leaves us needing some decent small players. Davey can't do the crumbing all by himself we need another good small forward for back up to Davey at least. Someone who can play tall and small like an understudy to Robbo would be good, can't think of who though, any suggestions? And of course some versatile defenders would be nice, another Whelan type. Hopefully Bell can really lock down a spot in the back six next season. I'm confident in him after his job on Farmer in the semi.

The only problem I can see with trying to tilt at the flag next year is that teams like West Coast and Freo are just so young and bursting at the seams with talent and versatility. Surely these sides will be coming into their prime over the next two seasons. A scary prospect indeed.

[praha 10,267]

It's more difficult to rebuild from a decent team, which is what we were, from a really bad team, like say Hawthorn or Carlton. That's because a team is already established and things have to be moved around. The can work out for the worse, which is what I think has happened. By the end of the draft we will know where we stand. If we trade our picks for someone respected veterns, then we may have what it takes and be set to make a legitimate campaign. But, if we keep the picks and choose some young players, we have to be prepared to wait another 2 or 3 years.

[Jaded No More 57,674]

It's a lot easier to go from an ordinary team, to a good team than many think.

The hardest part is going from a good team, to a premiership team. The first 90% does not separate you from the rest of the competition. It's that last 10% that is the most difficult to obtain and implement.

We're a good team, but we need to take that one final step towards becoming a premiership team. Whether Daniher is the man for the job, we'll know soon enough.

[Nasher 33,047]

I don't think we're rebuilding anymore at all. The recruitment of Pickett sent a pretty clear message that we thought we were close IMO.

[Guest dee'viator]

I don't think we're rebuilding anymore at all. The recruitment of Pickett sent a pretty clear message that we thought we were close IMO.

Maybe we're not as close as you want to think, perhaps Neil thinks that we're closer than we really are.

[Adzman 2,085]

We have a capable midfield. Beamer Moloney played about 3 games, a fit an firing beamer would have made a difference this year, so let us not get carried away finding an "established" midefilder when we have plenty that can do the job well.

I would chase Daniel Wells heavily. Adds some more pace and skill to a workman like midfield. We can live without him.

As for our defenders i think we have found a player in Warnock. He should come of age next year. We may need more from fergo. Nicho and bizz are past it, may need to find a player that can fill that void.

[QueenC 74]

I also don't think we are rebuilding anymore, we are past that phase.

But I would have thought that a team, any team, never stops building, not really and not completely.

Even if they are lucky and strong enough to win a Premiership (which is bloody difficult to do).

The following year will then present a new set of challenges and hurdles, and they must start from a totally different point.

They have the ultimate goal in one year, but it never really stops.

Just my opinion :D !!!

[Dee*ceiving 862]

The Backline is pretty steady IMO. Holland will go round again next year as the Gorilla minder and Riv and Carrol will be in the first 12 selected for several years to come. Wheels is the best small defender going around and Daniel Bell and Clint Bartram will improve again. No reason why Wardy can't have another good year in 2007.

The forward line is also ok for 2007 and will improve heaps with a fitter Robbo and a permanent Yze. Not to mention potentially Lynden Dunn.

Midfield is definitely the key, either we bank on Bate, Jones, Sylvia and Moloney to take the next step or inject some ready made players. it seems we are ok in the toughness department but some more pace could make a difference. 2 more players capable of breaking the lines with running bounces and long accurate kicking ala Heath Black would be the way to go for mine.

2007 is a real chance and 2008 might be the last chance before a complete rebuild.

[Rogue 585]

For me the backline is the key issue in 07. If Holland or Carroll go down we're doomed, and while Holland has rejuvenated his career and been a key to our back half in the latter parts of the season, he did sit on the bench for half a final with no match-up. Oh for a Jackovich

Our midfield is looking promising, and we've already been trying to inject some pace into that with our recruiting + rookie listing. The Rucks are more of an issue - can White and Jamar deliver us a flag?

The forward line is capable.

2007 is a real chance and 2008 might be the last chance before a complete rebuild.

I guess it depends on what our spine looks like, but we certainly have a decent group of young running players that should be around the club for a long time. Thus, I don't think it's all doom and gloom if we miss out in the next two years.

[deefuture06 0]

As far as recruiting goes it would be a good idea to get everitt as we will not be able to compete in finals with white as the no.1 ruckman. Everitt can play the role of sandilands as is a proven goalkicker. Aker we could take or leave, although he could free up davey who plays better up the ground.

[deanox 8,516]

i still dont understand why people are tlaking about a 'complete rebuild' in another 2 years.

as ive said before the only players we will lose are jeff neitz and mcdonald. holland eventually. we have young players preparing to step into neitzs giant shoes, that will be hard. but it also might make our forward line function a bit better...jeff white will be hard to cover but apparently all you have to be is really tall to be a good ruck these days...

i still think we should pick the best available in the first round and look to get a pacey midfielder (aker or wells) and/or a key position back in the draft. pick another ruckman with a late round pick (or rookie one and promote neaves if we think he might cut it).

i think the current team will get us close. next year will see mclean, sylvia, bell become regular members of the side, will see jones, bate, dunn and CJ have another preseason and step into the role of young contributor instead of promising youngster (i know they have been playing great but it isnt expected week in week out like it is a more senior player).

we will improve next year without adding players from other teams...

[praha 10,267]

I have a feeling that Wells may be wearing a Demons jumper next year. I don't know why. It's the same feeling I had when I first heard about Choppy coming from Port. I just kinda knew it was gonna happen. I think we have an advantage in getting him because of Davey, Pickett, Whelan. They might lure him down.

[Demon Disciple 10,902]

Great Thread!

There comes a point in time when a team stops going for youth and says "yep this our window of oppurtunity" and stop recruiting youth and trade for more experienced players.

Having said this, with the draft being as strong as it is this year, and given we may be going for Wells or Petrie or etc........ We should use our pick 12 to get a gun of a kid.

I just reckon Aker will be too much of a cost to us. He will want around 450k a year, too much for his age.

Plus why go for him when you could go for Wells?

[george_on_the_outer 6,944]

Also agree, what a great thread.

There would appear to be 2 schools of thought about Premiership success. 1. the top up theory 2. the progressive theory.

1. The top up theory.

Based on the infamous clock it would seem to suggest that when you "feel" that you are close to a premiership, then you recruit older more experienced players to get you over the line. Does it work? I can't find any evidence in the past 6 years.

Collingwood did a fantastic job of getting a large group of players from other clubs together that got them to 2 GF's. 3 years later they face implosion as that group are about to retire, and unless you are in a prime trading position i.e. bottom 3, then you cannot rebuild without pain.

St. Kilda have tried it, to this point unsuccessfully.

Richmond thought they were close a couple of years ago, and only managed to recruit a series of old duds, but then their assessment of their actual position was overstated.

Brisbane, Port, Sydney...where are the quality players they topped up with? Yes they picked up a couple of average also rans that may have filled gaps, but did the likes of Darren Jolly really get them over the line?

And let's be really serious here...how many genuinely good players are traded? Yes, there have been some, Stevens, Woewodin, Pickett. But for each of them there is a Hay or Rawlings. You simply will not get a good genuine KPP, which makes the statements that you see around the fan sites at this time of year simply laughable..."we only need a solid mid-fielder and a genuine FB to win a Premiership"

2. The progressive theory.

Just keep on taking the best kids in the draft and although it takes a long time, maybe 10 years, you finish with a constant stream of ability coming through. West Coast and Adelaide seem to have this as the basis of their recruiting, and we Victorians keep asking how they keep producing these good kids. Hawthorn are doing it, but they are probably 5 years behind us.

I think this is the direction that our club has been following now for some time. This year we had Bartram and Jones play in the year following the draft, but we had Bate and Dunn show their goods as well. We have now put together a series of first class selections and developed them over a number of years, to the point that we have now a good age and experience profile throughout the list. This will ensure constant top level performances, which increases the chances of success and avoids the drop to the bottom. Much more preferable from a supporters perspective as well.

So if that is the case why did we select Pickett? Probably because the talent available in last years draft was limited. We used our top pick wisely and then made a more solid investment with the next one, rather than a gamble on someone without high credentials.

I predict that we will seek to trade well this year- average players for other average playrs, but will stick with the picks that we have to be used on more youth.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

I though that I would give this thread a timely bump as it is relevant to what ND said recently in a Herald Sun interview.

The quote, which caught my eye, in particular was: "This is a long-term project"

Are Melbourne still "rebuilding"? (Obviously, long-term planning is always going on, but when does the FD see Melbourne's best chance at winning a Premiership?)

If so, when will it be their time?

[Yze_Magic 3]

For me, the rebuildinbg started after the insipid 2003 campaign

As has been stated many times by Daniher and people on this board, it was then that the holes in our list were on show for one and all. In fact, the holes were obvious even in 2002 when had Robbo and Biz playing at CHF and CHB respectively. We set about rectifying these in the 2003 National draft, and it all started with the drafting of Colin and Brock to add grunt and strength to our midfield

Since then we have not missed the Finals, and I believe that CAC and the recruiting staf have stepped up to the plate and have changed their philosophy on drafting. They have certainly been able to identify talent, even deep into the draft. Since the priority picks of 2003, we have added Davey, Dunn, Bartram, Bate, Jones, Bell, C.J etc...

I believe the rebuilding is on track, and we are ready for a Premiership tilt over the next few years end even beyond

[Harcourt 146]

I think our drafting in 2004 will be seen as a stroke of genius in coming years. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe Bate and Dunn could've been drafted in 2005. We let them develope for a year in 2005 and then unleashed them in 2006 along with Jones and Bartram. When these guys get a few more games under their belt and continue their improvement we should have a very nice engine room for many years to come.

I think ND's careful planning and willingness to always look to the future is why he is the coach for us. He could've done a Sheedy and loaded up on used cars over the trading period in the last year of his contract. However he stuck to his guns in the best medium to long term interests of the club. This will probably hurt him in the long run as most supporters believe it is flag or bust for him this year. Unfair IMO.

[Jaded No More 57,674]

You never stop building... teams like Sydney (or Brisbane of 01-03) who simply trade away their early picks for mature players, will spend a sustained period of time at the bottom when their current team retires.

The idea is to constantly build, change, evolve and grow. That's the way the competition works, and our club just cannot afford to go through long periods at the bottom of the ladder. Even a big club like Carlton is suffering due to poor on-field performances.

What Daniher is saying and doing is exactly right. We have a list that can challenge for the flag as early as this year, but that's not to say that in 2 or 3 years time we'll be struggling on the bottom of the ladder, because we haven't stopped recruiting well, and we haven't stopped changing our tactics.

There are no guarantees in this game, but we can control our long term future with the way we manage our list. That way, if we don't win a flag in the next two years, at least we won't have to bottom out again to become contenders.

[Rogue 585]

I too am starting to believe its a case of now or never for the Demons.

Even though this post is from '06, it's a nice segue into my comments. We're more likely to win a flag in 3-5 years than in the next couple.

Our more experienced players aren't up to scratch when you compare them to the elite at other clubs, but we should be able to replace many of our elder statesman. If we can find a big ruckman, and someone steps up to replace Neitz in the forward line (not necessarily with the same output as him, perhaps it'll be multiple guys pulling extra weight) then we should be in a better position than we are now.

[Toad33 57]

I believe the club, like all others, is chasing a premiership.......

.......however, I don't believe that the club is prepared to do everything it takes to get one. At the moment at least.

Let me explain.

There is more to the football club than the team. Gaining the ultimate team success by giving up draft picks may not be in the clubs best interest for future financial success.

Put another way. Sacrificing the mid term future for short term gain could end up in longer term pain.

I get the feeling that the clubs wants to continue down the road of stability and incrimental improvement on and off the field, rather than makes sacrifices now to knotch up a premiership and end up paying for it later.

Can we really afford to pick up MORE aging players and face a complete re-build in a couple of years? Especially with the 'cellar dwellar' price tag that will no doubt come with it?

Could it be that at the moment the club needs to at least sustain the record number of members signing up and not be faced with everyone jumping off again if we finish bottom 4 due to the 're-build process'.

I went on the record last year as saying that the only way we will win a premiership is to give up draft picks for players. We didn't do it. To improve this year it must now come from within.

That said I am still very optimistic about the coming season; afterall success is a combination of good management, skills and ability, desire and hard work all held together by good fortune. I believe we have all the right ingredients but like the other 15 clubs still have no control of over the good fortune.

Go Dees

[george_on_the_outer 6,944]

I hope the re-building never ends, because that is the secret to long term success. Does West Coast go chasing people like Everitt or Jolly or Polak ? No, they grow their own, knowing they will have them for 10 years. Now I haven't got the exact statistics in front of me, but the WCE finals appearances is something frightening like 15 out of the past 17 years!

Or do you follow the Richmond approach who thought they were close around 7 or 8 years ago, recruited a serious of discards hoping to get them over the line, and are still paying for it today. The are still trying to find the future replacements for those same players. But they will never find them, because when you finish in the middle of the table constantly you don't have the draft picks to trade, and you don't have the draft picks to get the best on offer. Despite what most people think, not too much quality is ever traded. Finals appearances? Once or twice in the past 20 years!

Or do you completely tank it..ala St.Kilda and Hawthorn? It certainly gets you some fantastic players, but as has been seen at St.Kilda, there is more to winning a flag than that. Lady luck and injury can determine the difference between ultimate success and abject failure....or to put it another way: the best laid plans of mice and men.........

Finals appearances? A couple here and there with some awfully long gaps in between. In the meantime kills the supporters and the club.

We have a strong chance of success while Neitz is playing. However, as others have said, we will only lose a couple of people of the next few years due to retirement. Our chances will remain.

The long term sustainable rebuilding approach is better, simply because while it doesn't guarantee success, it does give you the best possible chance.

[Stav300 0]

As i mentioned in my Training reply (i quote)

Im not sure i would be too worried about Col at this stage.

If he isnt due back till round 8 or 10 thats not a bad thing, better that, than having a blinder and going out from round 10 for the season.

Im expecting a mediocre, average first 10 rounds, 5 wins, 5 losses with the view that the Demons are aiming for September action and a better September result, we need to peak from round 17 onwards after a solid year, not come out firing and then after round 12 or 13 start losing games and poise.

If we are 7 and 6 or 8 and 5 at round 13, with players fresh and some due to come back, id be a very happy supporter, as long as the plan of firing in the latter stages works.

In regards to Rebuilding, i do believe that in some respects we may not have the right head coach to take us all the way, just my opinion, but what i do like about ND is that we arent going backwards at the moment. The last 3 years have been stable as much as there have been some definatel improvements as well as kinks that seem to remain.

Unless we win two finals or get into the GF i dont see ND's contract being renewed and deciding to delay until the years end now is a very smart thing to do. If we fall in a hole, it allows them to do it before the seasons end, if we are winning and firing, it adds extra drive.

I am not a football manager, coach nor did i get a chance to play seniors past year 12, and that was a long time ago, but i love the game and the club and i can say, yes now is as good a time as any to win a flag, but we are in a better possie than anytime in the last 40 years and thats good too.

There is something brewing at demon land and i cant wait to see the season unfold.

(Sorry to repeat myself but these two threads are very good)

[Dee*ceiving 862]

You never stop building... teams like Sydney (or Brisbane of 01-03) who simply trade away their early picks for mature players, will spend a sustained period of time at the bottom when their current team retires.

The idea is to constantly build, change, evolve and grow. That's the way the competition works, and our club just cannot afford to go through long periods at the bottom of the ladder. Even a big club like Carlton is suffering due to poor on-field performances.

What Daniher is saying and doing is exactly right. We have a list that can challenge for the flag as early as this year, but that's not to say that in 2 or 3 years time we'll be struggling on the bottom of the ladder, because we haven't stopped recruiting well, and we haven't stopped changing our tactics.

There are no guarantees in this game, but we can control our long term future with the way we manage our list. That way, if we don't win a flag in the next two years, at least we won't have to bottom out again to become contenders.

quote name='Toad33' date='Mar 8 2007, 09:44 PM' post='60491']

I believe the club, like all others, is chasing a premiership.......

There is more to the football club than the team. Gaining the ultimate team success by giving up draft picks may not be in the clubs best interest for future financial success.

Put another way. Sacrificing the mid term future for short term gain could end up in longer term pain.