BLACK SWAN EVENT COMING by George on the Outer

[Demonland 64,361]

The Finance industry has a favourite allusion to unforeseen events as Black Swan events which is another way of saying we didnt see it coming or we lost your money through no fault of ours

The weekend game and result against the Sydney Swans might be forebodingly black, given their systematic destruction of Carlton last week and because the Demons come into the game with only two wins for the season, against the Swans making a serious run for another Premiership!

And those two wins were hardly convincing, being against sides immediately above and below them on the ladder at the far Southern end of the competition.

Had he not been ruled out with his injury, it's highly likely that the Swans would have rested their star attraction, Adam Goodes anyway (after all his nemesis Cale Morton is no longer playing for the Demons). Their already extensive injury list of Rhyce Shaw (abdomen), Lewis Roberts-Thomson (knee), Lewis Jetta (shin), Sam Reid (quad) and ruckman Shane Mumford (face) should have given any other side a fighting chance and yet, with all these players absent, Carlton were systematically taken apart last week - and in appalling conditions to boot! What chance then a lowly Demons side?

Well, we all live in hope of a repeat of this game:

With only one more home game at the G scheduled this year, and a win last week to raise the spirits, the Melbourne fans should turn up hoping a Black Swan event might strike the Sydney Ducks just as it did in 2010.

... but then Black Swan events are meant to be once in a lifetime

THE GAME

Melbourne v Sydney at the MCG Sunday 7 July at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 92 wins Sydney 107 wins 2 draws

At MCG Melbourne 49 wins Sydney 39 wins 2 draws

Since 2000 Melbourne 7 wins Sydney 13 wins 1 draw

The Coaches Neil Craig 0 John Longmire 0

MEDIA

TV Fox Footy Channel (Live at 1:00pm)

RADIO Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win $15.00 Sydney to win $1.01

LAST TIME THEY MET

Sydney 21.13.138 defeated Melbourne 5.7.37 at the SCG in Round 8, 2012

It was a humiliation of epic proportions. A heavy defeat remembered by Demon fans only for the fact that it was Liam Jurrah's last hurrah and for Jeremy Howe's mark of the year.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Lynden Dunn Colin Garland Dean Terlich

Half backs Tom McDonald James Frawley Mitch Clisby

Centreline Matt Jones Jack Trengove Jack Grimes

Half forwards Dean Kent Chris Dawes David Rodan

Forwards Jack Fitzpatrick Jack Watts Jeremy Howe

Followers Max Gawn Colin Sylvia Nathan Jones

Interchange Shannon Byrnes Aaron Davey Daniel Nicholson Jimmy Toumpas

Emergencies Cam Pedersen James Sellar James Strauss

In Jack Grimes

Out Sam Blease (ankle)

SYDNEY SWANS

Backs Nick Smith Ted Richards Dane Rampe

Half backs Nick Malceski Heath Grundy Jarrad McVeigh

Centreline Dan Hannebery Josh Kennedy Andrejs Everitt

Half forwards Ben McGlynn Sam Reid Jude Bolton

Forwards Mike Pyke KurtTippett Luke Parker

Followers Shane Mumford Kieren Jack, Ryan O'Keefe

Interchange Craig Bird Brandon Jack Jed Lamb Tom Mitchell

Emergencies Tony Armstrong Mitch Morton Jesse White

In Shane Mumford Sam Reid

Out Xavier Richards (quad) Jesse White

Although the Swans won last year's grand final and their round 9 clash against the Magpies at the G, you have to go back to the middle of the last decade to find a Sydney victory over Melbourne at the home of football (not forgetting that three Demon home games were "sold" to Canberra in the late 00's).

The last two games at the ground between these sides produced a couple of diametrically opposite results:-

Round 17, 2010 - Melbourne 22.10.142 defeated Sydney 10.9.69

Round 1, 2011 - Melbourne 11.18.84 drew with Sydney 11.18.84

Since the drawn game, the teams have met only once and again the result was quite the opposite of the one it preceded when the Swans recorded that 101 point victory at the SCG.

This week's result is likely to be a Swans win in the range between the 2011 and 2012 results.

[Kenny Powers 90]

Don't have great hope that we will win, seriously just want to see the effort and consistentancy of last weeks game.

[Ron Burgundy 8,584]

It's my 8 year wedding anniversary this Sunday, which means I can't watch the game 'live' due to conflicting anniversary lunch duties.

You know what that means - it'll be our best game for the year, and we might even snatch a truly remarkable win. And I won't witness it.

So, put your house on the Dees. I can just see how this Sunday's going to unfold for me ...

[McQueen 17,862]

I'm making the journey over from Perth so I hope the boys put in a good showing.

The fact that the Swans engine room has about five times more horsepower than ours will be telling. If our team can get a system working at the bounces and shank a few extra clearances here and there who knows?

[jazza 1,323]

It's my 8 year wedding anniversary this Sunday, which means I can't watch the game 'live' due to conflicting anniversary lunch duties.

You know what that means - it'll be our best game for the year, and we might even [censored] a truly remarkable win. And I won't witness it.

So, put your house on the Dees. I can just see how this Sunday's going to unfold for me ...

congrats on your 8th

you've only got another 20 to serve

[beelzebub 22,225]

is that 20 goals 11 to 20 goals 12 ?? lol

[Demon trucker 1,723]

The dees will win