A reason to get seriously excited?

[sylvinator 96]

The following is based on what our list should look like during the period from 2013-2015, inclusive. I'm concentrating on players who are currently in our best 22, or realistically could be by 2013

(NB: players not included from our current-day list are Warnock, Martin, Maric, Jetta bc I personally don't see them on our list in 2013, and i've included Viney)

1. Players most likely on the decline: Green

2. Players who'll probably be holding their current output levels: Rivers, J.Macdonald, Moloney, Davey, Jamar, Dunn, Jones, Bate, Bartram, Sylvia (with hopefully more consistency)

3. Players who should be twice the players they are now with 40+ games and 2 more pre-seasons: Frawley, Morton, Garland, Grimes, Watts, Petterd, Jurrah, Bennel, Scully, Trengove, McKenzie, Bail, Wonaeamirri

4. Virtually untried players who might not all make it, but could all be HUGE improvers by 2013: Tapscott, Blease, Gysberts, Cook, Howe, Spenser, Gawn, Fitzpatrick, Strauss, Davis, McDonald, Viney

Summery:

- 35/36 (98%) players should still be playing, at the very least, at their current standards

- 24/36 (67%) players should see enourmous improvement by 2013 (Category 3 and 4)

- The vast majority of our most talented players are in category 3. They are all in our best 22, and should all be big improvers by 2013. They comprise of 13/36 (35%) of our list!

- Of the players in category 4, those virtually untried, 5 are first rounder picks, and the statistics suggest that of those 12, considering where they were drafted, at least 5 should become very good players.

I'm not 100% sure what can be taken out of this, but i'd suggest that it suggests that we are a team massively on the rise, who should peak in 2-3 years, and most importantly, will not be losing any structurely critical players in the foreseeable future. In fact, considering all the front-ended contracts, we should be able to trade in one very talented player from another club.

Good times ahead?

[John Crow Batty 8,863]

You are being too optimistic. Should be tempered with; 2 or 3 players will have injuries that might ruin most of their season. 2 or 3 players will play below expectations. 2 or 3 players will not improve at all. 9/36 or 25% of players not achieving expectations is a more realistic optimistic prognosis. But I do have high hopes like you for the other 75%.

Edited January 3, 2011 by america de cali

[Rocknroll 1,003]

Also Young Viney!!!!

[Grandson of a gun 276]

It certainly is exciting times Sylvinator and granted your list makes great reading but America is right when he says 6-9 of them probably won't develop or improve or will be cruelled by injuries....

Delistings also factor in as at least 3 have to go every year plus others for rookies.

But on the flip side we will get a couple of good picks and Viney to come....

I always have St Kilda in the back of my mind though as about 5 or 6 years ago they were in a similar position and everyone expected success, but so far they have failed to deliver. The MFC should have their team up on the wall as a constant reminder that it will take nothing more than 100% dedication and hard work, otherwise they'll just end up like another St Kilda, lots of expectations but no achievements!!!

[don cordner 204]

Maric will be a gun!

[Keyser Söze 0]

Maric will be a gun!

The only question is whether that will be for the demons or in the VAFA...

[jayceebee31 761]

As Sylvinator points out very interesting times ahead.I think we have the best list for 47 years or more,since our halcyon days,our great period of time. However, as others have said we will have to weed at least 3 per year- thay by God is going to be hard enough to do.Therefore we will have a much more stable list for a few years onwards.

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

It certainly is exciting times Sylvinator and granted your list makes great reading but America is right when he says 6-9 of them probably won't develop or improve or will be cruelled by injuries....

Delistings also factor in as at least 3 have to go every year plus others for rookies.

But on the flip side we will get a couple of good picks and Viney to come....

I always have St Kilda in the back of my mind though as about 5 or 6 years ago they were in a similar position and everyone expected success, but so far they have failed to deliver. The MFC should have their team up on the wall as a constant reminder that it will take nothing more than 100% dedication and hard work, otherwise they'll just end up like another St Kilda, lots of expectations but no achievements!!!

Never heard a better post.

Supporters are sometimes very biased and we all know that this forum is full of 'em !

St Kilda are the perfect reminder. Having a list full of high draft picks is great but will only get a

team so far and as Grandson has pointed out, we don't even know which of them will reach their full potential

and which of them won't. Add injuries to that and you are back at square one.

Emphasis should not only be enforced on the playing list, but the whole club and everyone involved and I feel that

we are slowly seeing a 'shift' with the MFC.

As long as we continue to slowly build on this foundation, with a bit of luck I reckon our chance will come.

[sylvinator 96]

St Kilda are the perfect reminder.

Just a point on StKilda. Everyone is pointing to them as evidence of a team who were hyped up years ago, but never achieved success.

True... they haven't won a flag. BUT...

2010: StKilda came a very close 2nd. Drew the first grand final and had the match gone for an extra 3 minutes, they surely would have won

2009: Stkilda came a very close 2nd. Lost the grand final to Geelong by 12 points. With a bit of luck they could easily have won that game. Also won the minor premiership.

2008: Stkilda came 3rd. Stkilda lost to the eventual premiers Hawthorn in the preliminary final. Won the NAB pre-season cup as well.

2007: a one-off poor season finishing 9th. An aberration.

2006: Stkilda came 6th, losing to a Mclean-led Demons. Also won the NAB pre-season cup.

2005: Stkilda came 3rd. Once again lost to the eventual premiers Sydney in the preliminary final

2004: Stkilda came 3rd. Once again lost to the eventual premiers Port Adelaide in the preliminary final

In 2011 StKilda should have another huge push at a premiership.

Yes, StKilda have NOT won a premiership. This is their failure. And NO, I would not be satisfied if we had a run of success without the ultimate success of a premiership.

But no-one can doubt StKilda have had a tremendous run. Between 2000-2004, through drafting, they set themselves for a HUGE run at a flag. They put themselves in the best possible position to win one. Many would argue, myself included, that they have been desperately unlucky not to win a flag in the past 7 years. Were a touch of luck, they could have 2 flags to their name. And they did this all during an era where Geelong compiled one of the best teams in recent history, with up to 11 All-Australian players in Geelong's starting 22.

My point is that what we are trying to do is set ourselves up for 8-9 years at the top, making grand-finals, preliminary finals each year and, of course, a premiership. StKilda will achieve their 8 years at the top, but sadly will probably never achieve the flag they were chasing. But, I think our list runs a lot deeper than StKilda and it will put us in a better position to win a flag when our time comes.

The point of my OP was to suggest that we are very nicely compiling our list to grow and mature together, so that we may peak and have a period of long and sustained success. Relatively similar to StKilda's period of success, except that we will take our opportunities and hopefully win 2-3 premierships!

[Hobbits's 17]

2006: Also won the NAB pre-season cup.

maybe...G.Thomas & L.Hayes should have smiled back then accepting the cup and enjoyed the night premiership.

Edited January 4, 2011 by Grimes to Watts

[Keyser Söze 0]

St Kilda also lack the real depth that we have.

They are forced at times to make do with imho only-just-good-enough role players like Eddy, McQualter & Dempster.

[John Crow Batty 8,863]

So far I would consider St Kilda a failure. Though they did the important thing and kept themselves in the mix to have every chance season after season and only luck has denied them. But that brings up the fickle nature of winning a premiership/s. Who would other than the hopeful club faithful have expected Brisbane's great run in 1999/2000 and Geelong's in 2005/6. Or even Port, Hawthorn and Collingwood's singular wins in between. Nothing is guaranteed and I would say the odds will still be somewhat against us winning a flag with our current group no matter how good their potential is. There are still many deficiencies in our game. The talent is there but the rarest ingredients are finding the winning attitude and having luck on your side. And as I have said ad-nauseum before in other threads, if we still save our best footy for when we play Collingwood we will have no hope.

Edited January 4, 2011 by america de cali

[Grandson of a gun 276]

Just a point on StKilda. Everyone is pointing to them as evidence of a team who were hyped up years ago, but never achieved success.

True... they haven't won a flag. BUT...

2010: StKilda came a very close 2nd. Drew the first grand final and had the match gone for an extra 3 minutes, they surely would have won

2009: Stkilda came a very close 2nd. Lost the grand final to Geelong by 12 points. With a bit of luck they could easily have won that game. Also won the minor premiership.

2008: Stkilda came 3rd. Stkilda lost to the eventual premiers Hawthorn in the preliminary final. Won the NAB pre-season cup as well.

2007: a one-off poor season finishing 9th. An aberration.

2006: Stkilda came 6th, losing to a Mclean-led Demons. Also won the NAB pre-season cup.

2005: Stkilda came 3rd. Once again lost to the eventual premiers Sydney in the preliminary final

2004: Stkilda came 3rd. Once again lost to the eventual premiers Port Adelaide in the preliminary final

In 2011 StKilda should have another huge push at a premiership.

Yes, StKilda have NOT won a premiership. This is their failure. And NO, I would not be satisfied if we had a run of success without the ultimate success of a premiership.

But no-one can doubt StKilda have had a tremendous run. Between 2000-2004, through drafting, they set themselves for a HUGE run at a flag. They put themselves in the best possible position to win one. Many would argue, myself included, that they have been desperately unlucky not to win a flag in the past 7 years. Were a touch of luck, they could have 2 flags to their name. And they did this all during an era where Geelong compiled one of the best teams in recent history, with up to 11 All-Australian players in Geelong's starting 22.

My point is that what we are trying to do is set ourselves up for 8-9 years at the top, making grand-finals, preliminary finals each year and, of course, a premiership. StKilda will achieve their 8 years at the top, but sadly will probably never achieve the flag they were chasing. But, I think our list runs a lot deeper than StKilda and it will put us in a better position to win a flag when our time comes.

The point of my OP was to suggest that we are very nicely compiling our list to grow and mature together, so that we may peak and have a period of long and sustained success. Relatively similar to StKilda's period of success, except that we will take our opportunities and hopefully win 2-3 premierships!

I thought your original post was good and highlighted some really exciting things but you said it yourself Sylv, they haven't won a premiership or achieved ultimate success. I bet they would trade in those last 6 years for one year like Collingwood.

I agree they have been really good for a sustained period and run into some tough opposition, and i agree Melbourne are setting themselves up for the same run at it. But ultimately, nobody remembers second place.

Two seconds and three thirds in 6 years is great, but not as good as one first- and that is what we are all aiming and hoping for. That was the reasoning behind my post and why St Kilda is a great example of what we want to do better than...

So far I would consider St Kilda a failure. Though they did the important thing and kept themselves in the mix to have every chance season after season and only luck has denied them. But that brings up the fickle nature of winning a premiership/s. Who would other than the hopeful club faithful have expected Brisbane's great run in 1999/2000 and Geelong's in 2005/6. Or even Port, Hawthorn and Collingwood's singular wins in between. Nothing is guaranteed and I would say the odds will still be somewhat against us winning a flag with our current group no matter how good their potential is. There are still many deficiencies in our game. The talent is there but the rarest ingredients are finding the winning attitude and having luck on your side. And as I have said ad-nauseum before in other threads, if we still save our best footy for when we play Collingwood we will have no hope.

Yep luck will play a part, but you have to make your own luck and i believe those who work the hardest are often the luckiest...

[volders 22]

I thought your original post was good and highlighted some really exciting things but you said it yourself Sylv, they haven't won a premiership or achieved ultimate success. I bet they would trade in those last 6 years for one year like Collingwood.

Obviously, no one would disagree with that, not everyone can win a premiership though.

Two seconds and three thirds in 6 years is great, but not as good as one first- and that is what we are all aiming and hoping for. That was the reasoning behind my post and why St Kilda is a great example of what we want to do better than...

I really think St.Kilda did all they can, they got unlucky on a few fronts, Lovett, Kosy, many injuries (Roo, Dal Santo, Gardiner off the top of my head). That said our list looks likely to potentially be better than their list, they have a 5-6 players who are real A graders but their bottom few are some of the worst in any of the top 8 teams. Their backline is pretty talentless IMO but have held together due to good teamwork, smart gameplan and a star midfield that helps them out. Hopefully we can develop those top tier stars as well as having a strong bottom 6 in our ~26 players.

There is nothing wrong with aiming for what St Kilda did, a 7-8 year tilt at a flag us more than we've had in a long time. Hopefully we can put together a list that can go just a little bit further. Infact even though the Hawks have a premiership and St Kilda don't I'd prefer to take St Kilda's method because it is more likely to give us that ultimate success. A 7-8 year tilt with a good list would have a higher average return in landing you a cup than trying to bradbury into one like Hawthorn.

[Keyser Söze 0]

Losing a pick 2 in Ball for nothing didn't help them.

Neither did using such a high pick on X Clarke.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

yes sylv I agree totally. The Saints were what about 2.5 goals away from back to back flags. Now people would be saying 'look at St.Kildas perfect development model!' and they are up for a few more. The Hawks had a nice little hand from the draft and even Collingwood did. The Dogs did too. It's about having good players from lower selections too and we have McKenzie, Garland, Jurrah, Petterd , Bennell and heaps of others. We have 5 players who were taken in the top4 of the draft and I reckon they will all end up guns

[H_T 3,043]

Losing a pick 2 in Ball for nothing didn't help them.

Neither did using such a high pick on X Clarke.

Spending pick 16 on Andrew Lovett must have hurt.

[rpfc 28,406]

Spending pick 16 on Andrew Lovett must have hurt.

Yes, 2010 was certainly the year Australia went digital...

That's inappropriate.

[Keyser Söze 0]

WOW.

I'll say...

[H_T 3,043]

I'll say...

x2.