15th on the ladder

[jacey 333]

It's not about trying to lose games, it's about being smart.

That's it in a nutshell.

You don't win premierships (2009) when you are 3-12. Nothing to be gained from winning 2 more.

[Rogue 585]

Which is why I said in my previous post, we should use the opportunity to develop players and cotton wool others, for the future.

These are the tools for tanking.

[BangkokDemon 96]

These are the tools for tanking.

Same tools, but different attitude.

It will be interesting to see if this becomes a point for discussion in the general media and the club is forced to comment.

Then, we'll all know...I guess ?

[Mousey 47]

Nice touch, but it makes me wonder mousey....

haha no need to wonder mate just giggle every time i see the big mans dance..used to post it every time we won and thought i may as well start again

[H_T 3,043]

These are the tools for tanking.

I'd like to see McKenzie & Bail debut soon. (Most likely it will not be against Geelong due to the win, and you cannot make wholesale changes when a side is winning, unless there's injuries or match-up concerns). I think Cheney will be back in soon. Newton, Bartram & Miller can also be recalled for various reasons prior to seasons end. And if Buckley can get back in time (get over his injury first & foremost), he's another option.

[Rogue 585]

It will be interesting to see if this becomes a point for discussion in the general media and the club is forced to comment.

Then, we'll all know...I guess ?

The media's already asked questions along the lines of PP etc.

I don't think we'll know from anything the Club says - they're not going to telegraph it.

I'd like to see McKenzie & Bail debut soon. (Most likely it will not be against Geelong due to the win, and you cannot make wholesale changes when a side is winning, unless there's injuries or match-up concerns). I think Cheney will be back in soon. Newton, Bartram & Miller can also be recalled for various reasons prior to seasons end. And if Buckley can get back in time (get over his injury first & foremost), he's another option.

All fair enough. McKenzie's been playing quite well for a while now, Bartram was 'BOG' and both Miller and Newton kicked four sausages. Buckley might get another crack at it and if Bell's injury isn't too bad he's another you can add to that list.

As an aside, I'd like to see Wheels get another four games.

[BangkokDemon 96]

The media's already asked questions along the lines of PP etc.

I don't think we'll know from anything the Club says - they're not going to telegraph it.

All fair enough. McKenzie's been playing quite well for a while now, Bartram was 'BOG' and both Miller and Newton kicked four sausages.

If Bell's injury isn't too bad he's another you can add to that list.

As an aside, I'd like to see Wheels get another four games.

I know it was discussed several weeks ago - before we won a couple of games.

But, now, it becomes an issue again.

I agree they are not likely to "telegraph" it - you will need to read between the lines.

And if we get thrashed by the Cats this will likely be a non-issue again.

[H_T 3,043]

All fair enough. McKenzie's been playing quite well for a while now, Bartram was 'BOG' and both Miller and Newton kicked four sausages. Buckley might get another crack at it and if Bell's injury isn't too bad he's another you can add to that list.

As an aside, I'd like to see Wheels get another four games.

Fair call, thanks for the reminder on Whelan.

[jacey 333]

All fair enough. McKenzie's been playing quite well for a while now, Bartram was 'BOG' and both Miller and Newton kicked four sausages. Buckley might get another crack at it and if Bell's injury isn't too bad he's another you can add to that list.

As an aside, I'd like to see Wheels get another four games.

So you want to see 5-6 changes every week. We all know if you make that many changes, teams can't find consistency and enviably struggle to win.

Taken from the Weagles tanking strategy '08. I've got the 07 Carlton model too. Say the word Dean and I'll Fedex it to you.

[dimmy 1,307]

Sorry Dimmy.........I think you're off the mark.

Point taken in general.

"The science of drafting improves year on year................it's not the hit and miss affair it used to be."

How come we got Jurrah ? Garland

"A few top picks can quickly turn a teams fortunes around in a few seasons. "

So can faith in our Development staff.

We continually think that Watts is a few years away from being a gun. What is to say that some of our other kids are also learning about the game,life etc.

( We have waited a fair while for Sylvia to consistently show his wares, Not saying Scully is same personality etc.)

Don't get me wrong, because I think Scully is class (based on observation against SA in U 18 Match. But at the risk of prejudging him, I do not think he is an Ablett, Bartel , Voss or Hird. Furthermore I do not think Thomas/Pendlbury are any better than what we have got in the pipeline at the moment. However I think we have got a few Lewis/Mitchell and Franklin type players being groomed. Lets not be all doom and gloom.

If we keep looking at the neigbours dam the yabbies in our own water will bite our toes.

You have definitely highlighted some really good examples of "special"players making a difference in a Club. However the 3 biggest dynasties of modern (post 1980) era in Hawthorn North Melbourne and Brisbane had a lot of middle range players who played above themselves because they Expected to win.

Lets celebrate the win !!!

Edited July 13, 2009 by dimmy

[BangkokDemon 96]

Sorry Dimmy.........I think you're off the mark.

Point taken in general.

"The science of drafting improves year on year................it's not the hit and miss affair it used to be."

How come we got Jurrah ? Garland

"A few top picks can quickly turn a teams fortunes around in a few seasons. "

So can faith in our Development staff.

We continually think that Watts is a few years away from being a gun. What is to say that some of our other kids are also learning about the game,life etc.

( We have waited a fair while for Sylvia to consistently show his wares, Not saying Scully is same personality etc.)

Don't get me wrong, because I think Scully is class (based on observation against SA in U 18 Match. But at the risk of prejudging him, I do not think he is an Ablett, Bartel , Voss or Hird. Furthermore I do not think Thomas/Pendlbury are any better than what we have got in the pipeline at the moment. However I think we have got a few Lewis/Mitchell and Franklin type players being groomed. Lets not be all doom and gloom.

If we keep looking at the neigbours dam the yabbies in our own water will bite our toes.

You have definitely highlighted some really good examples of "special"players making a difference in a Club. However the 3 biggest dynasties of modern (post 1980) era in Hawthorn North Melbourne and Brisbane had a lot of middle range players who played above themselves because they Expected to win.

Lets celebrate the win !!!

Here, here Dimmy.

I've been fumbling around trying to say much the same, but got caught up in a rather useless discussion about "tanking".

[52k2 0]

I just love the wimps on this site! They just love to lose, well you must be in heaven supporting the DEES as we have been doing alot of that lately.

Now correct me if Ive got this wrong, we are meant to go out there and lose yes say it after me KIDDIES looooooose, welcome to carlton, you are as bad as them, no worse, as they didnt play the holier than thou act. They tanked and everybody knew it. And you lot wrap your tanking in all sorts of different wordings.

And now Ricky and Liam try to get better and play better footy and kick 4 a piece, horrible, delist them I say, here we are pleading to add to our great loss count and they go and try to improve. NO delisting is to good for them, beheading sounds about right.

Has anyone of you professional loosers ever thought that the cup dosnt come to the DEES in Scullys bag we still have to win games something we are trying to do now.

[Jarka 767]

How come we got Jurrah ?

We were extremely lucky to get Jurrah, it was a Steven Bradbury moment.

I'm unsure of the exact details, there are others on this site who know exactly what happened but basically Jurrah didn't get his form in on time to nominate for the drafts. Betheras (ex-Collingwood player who originally spotted him) lobbied the AFL after the November draft and managed to get them to agree to aloow him into the psd under special circumstances.

He basically fell into our laps, and I'm sure he would have gone in the 2nd or 3rd round, North were pretty keen as well.

[Yze_Magic 3]

Dean Cox out for season.

West Coast are shameless.

http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21...5005401,00.html

[Guest]

Daniel Rich was not number 1 Draft pick, nor was James Hird, James Bartel, Joel Selwood, Sam Mitchell, Brad Sewell, Buddy etc. so lets not get ahead of ourselves too much by being so negative.

Of course having the number 1 draft pick doesn't mean that you will definitely have the best player in the draft but it means that you are more likely to get the best player or the player that the club thinks will be the best. And this year it is more important than ever.

[Hannabal 4]

How come we got Jurrah ?

Because we came last.

[Guest]

Playing Hughes, Valenti, McKenzie and Bail wont make us lose. Theyre not much different from the likes of Bell, Dunn, Jetta if you follow my drift.

If we play them all we'll lose.

[titan_uranus 25,014]

Over the next few weeks I think it's imperative that we give game time to McNamara, Cheney, the promising rookies (i.e. Hughes, McKenzie, maybe Spencer if he's fit) and Bail. I'd prefer them in the team to Miller or Newton.

[Longsufferingnomore 1,631]

If we play them all we'll lose.

After listening to G.Lyon tonight I am even more convinced that we cannot win another game. He said how many supporters remember the feeling of winning the game over losing the No1 draft pick for the year. Even CH and GT believe that Melbourne should not win another game. Only Caro thought that they should try and win all of their next games for their supporters. She said that the word was that West Coast were thinking of putting DKerr and Cox out for the rest of the season. I understand those here who believe that we don't need PP to rise to the top but as GT said Scully is a ready made footballer and definitely the best in the country. GT when asked how they would do it he said that it was the preparation, training, game strategy and player management. I get the feeling that this has been going on for a long time well before Carltank last year. Caro said that Mick Malthouse had a nerve to say that teams should be able to rise to the top without PP and that they had got (I cant remember who she said) by getting early draft picks. I am very very nervous. I am hoping that seeing Jimmy going into the Club today he was going in to tell DB enough is enough.

[demon_fanatic 4]

Hey guys, there is so many threads on this draft pick stuff i can't find the answer... if we win 4 games.. and dockers stay stuck on 3... do we still get pick 1 because of the priority thing...

so say we win 4, dockers 3 and richmond eagles say 5 each.. do we get picks 1 and 3?? thanks guys

[CarnTheDees 52]

demon_fanatic:

If we win less than 4.5, we get a PP.

If WCE win less than 4.5, they get a PP.

If as you ask, we win 4, WCE 5, Rich 5 and Freo 3 then we get pick 1 and 3. Freo pick 2.

The bottom 5 on the ladder is pretty much set in stone:

WCE 16 88%

NM 16 78

Rich 12 78

MFC 12 74

Freo 12 72

These 5 teams play each other 7 more times this season, so there are a minimum of 28 points on offer (assuming no wins against the remaining teams).

The games and my selections are:

Rich def by NM

Fre def by WCE (edit)

MFC def by Rich

NM def MFC

WCE def by NM

MFC def Fre

WCE def Rich

Assuming no major % fluctuations:

NM 28

WCE 24

Rich 16

MFC 16

Freo 12

Which ends up with a draft order of:

1 MFC

2 Freo

3 MFC

4 Rich

5 WCE

6 NM

Obviously there are many other tanking considerations. Coaches resting star players etc. WCE might completely fold and stay on 16 points.

If MFC beats Richmond and everything else stays as is;

1 Freo

2 Rich

3 MFC

4 WCE

5 NM

Edited July 14, 2009 by CarnTheDees

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

Good work CTD.

Richmond vs Melbourne is a crucial game if you assume that MFC will beat Freo.

Your analysis assumes that none of the five teams will not win any other games. Fair enough.

I trust that is wrong with Freo and Richmond.

Oops! just noticed you have not listed Freo vs WCE at Subi on July 25. Have you assumed WCE in your 24 points?

[CarnTheDees 52]

Good work CTD.

Richmond vs Melbourne is a crucial game if you assume that MFC will beat Freo.

Your analysis assumes that none of the five teams will not win any other games. Fair enough.

I trust that is wrong with Freo and Richmond.

Oops! just noticed you have not listed Freo vs WCE at Subi on July 25. Have you assumed WCE in your 24 points?

You're right.

The 2nd one should read Freo def by WCE, not NM.

Fixing now

[Jaded No More 68,909]

Good work CTD.

Richmond vs Melbourne is a crucial game if you assume that MFC will beat Freo.

Oops! just noticed you have not listed Freo vs WCE at Subi on July 25. Have you assumed WCE in your 24 points?

The Freo-WC derby is the most important result for us, outside of our own games.

We want West Coast to defeat Freo, putting them out of contention for a PP. That means that finishing bottom is no longer key, and that put simply all we have to do is not win more than 4 matches total, and pick 1 (and 2/3) is ours.

It seems unlikely that West Coast can avoid winning at least 1 more given who they play, but even if they don't, the percentage gap between us, plus the fact that we still have to play Geelong and St.Kilda (potential thrashing and percentage decrease) means we are still likely to finish below them on the ladder, thus still maintaining pick 1.

[Rhino Richards 1,467]

A draw would be a better outcome.

It screws WCE by putting them at 4.5 wins and then also penalises Freo with 2 premiership points.

And if Freo could win one more...... Beautiful!! They would be off the bottom (for MFC) and no 2nd round PP.

MFC get picks 1 and 2 and WCE and Freo get no PPs and have to wait in line. Perfect