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Lucifer's Hero

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Lucifer's Hero last won the day on October 27

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About Lucifer's Hero

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    MFC, Bridge, Travel, Good food and wine

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    Salem, Barassi, Stynes

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  1. Even if they did offer 14+17 we should not accept it - In draft points 14+17 is worth far less than what we gave North to get pick 8 and their is an intangible value in the quality of pick 8. No way should we 'sell' it at a discount to another club. If we did we would look pretty stupid having given up our 2020 first rounder and paid a massive premium to get 8.
  2. That several clubs are prepared to package up their mid teen pick for a top 10 shows there must be some real gems in the top 10 that won't be on the table at 14, 15, etc. Two top 10 players (@3+8) are far better for us than one top player @3 and two lesser more speculative players in the mid to late teens, especially now that we are likely to have Bennell. Unless we get an offer too good to refuse we take 8 to the draft!
  3. And Sumich seems to have an axe to grind with Freo so he may just be playing nasty so Freo miss out on him or as you say pay up big for pick 3.
  4. Yes, we can. But even by including their 2020 #11 and getting a second round back it really doesn't improve the equation that much (compared to what we paid for #8) let alone increase the chances of really improving our talent which pick 8 will.
  5. Of course their are many permutations of pick swaps with various clubs; I was commenting on the trades being mooted with GCS and Geelong. I have posted elsewhere that if GCS include 2020 #11 it is closer to getting us the value I am looking for. (Btw we can't give anything back to GCS as we cannot trade another 2020 pick.) Pick 50 is worth 273 points, so even by removing it, it doesn't essentially change the position I was posing for the need to get value back for pick 8. Can't see the point in doing the first deal with North otherwise. But I still put more value on a pick 8 (might become 9 or 10 than picks 17-23 (ie 14 to 20 after academy and f/s picks) to get us a very good player. None of the players you mention or those linked to us will be there at 17-20 so I still favour taking 8 to the draft - unless we get an offer we can't refuse.
  6. If we just wanted pick 10 and 22 (which we traded to Freo) we could have done it as part of the Langdon trade. They would have loved our 2020 first pick. Can't help but think there was a particular strategy behind the North pick 8 trade. Also, under the new rules according to Cal Twomey (not sure which thread) Freo can't trade pick 22 to us as we traded it to them so they would have to find another club with a similar pick to get pick 8.
  7. Its a shame Twomey doesn't give more info on the 3 GWS picks we rejected. Twomey hasn't thought thru the GCS interest in pick 8. With 3 Acadamey/FS picks likely before 15 the GCS picks 15 and 20 will become 18 and 23. That will be poor value for our pick 8 and I can't see us getting a very good player at 18 and 23. It is worth recapping the North trade. Out: 26, 50 and 2020 1st round pick for North's pick 8. While not a big believer in Draft Points to measure pick value it is worth using it as a guide for pick swaps: Even if we win the Premiership, and North get pick 18, the trade (then valued at 1987 points) will give them quite a premium for their pick 8 valued at 1511 points). Realistically we are not likely to win the premiership so the value to North will be much more than the 1987 points. As a point of reference if we come 8th in 2020 the trade value will be 2331 points to North for pick 8 valued at 1551. So, I can't see how the mooted interest for pick 8 by GCS (pick 15 and 20 = 2024 draft points), Geelong (pick 14 and 17= 2186) give us value. And I put an 'intangible value' on a top 10 player being an excellent, long term prospect than two players in the late teens. So would rather keep pick 8 and do either of those mooted trades. I strongly feel that a trade for pick 8 needs to give us substantially better value that we paid for it otherwise we have coughed up our 2020 first round pick for a mighty discount.
  8. Hope you are wrong. He looked pretty skinny in the legs, arms and upper body. That may help him run but he looks more like a 2-3 year player than a 5/6 year player.
  9. Any news on what Lever has been up to in the off-season? Wouldn't mind seeing him beefed up a bit by round 1.
  10. Good question. Going by the Cal Toomey tweet above: " One pick swap is not allowed to be connected to another". That 22 was part of the Langdon player trade rather than a pick swap, might make the 8 for 10 and 22 swap with freo ok. And, if Cal Toomey is correct "You aren't even able to trade back a selection that was traded to you during the trade period itself (back to the same club that gave it)" it will be a nightmare for the AFL to track during the five minutes between drafts as so many picks changed hands during trading. It would mean many picks can't go back to the original club in what is otherwise a genuine and honest pick swap. Certainly a lot of grey areas which hopefully are clarified by draft time. Otherwise its is another AFL hornets nest?
  11. Maybe, maybe not. As I wrote the word 'intent' I remembered how Steve Waugh used it to motivate his team at the start of his captaincy, one of the most successful for the baggy green in the modern era. Each and every player went onto the field 'with intent' regardless of how they felt in the moment. Over time that became a psychological advantage for the baggy greens. I would love to see our guys train and then play 'with intent' every game: intent to tackle, intent to chase, intent to compete etc from which real and inferred pressure will (I hope) be created. I've concluded that your field is psychology so take it easy on this mere mortal, amateur who knows only a little about motivation of teams.
  12. One step at a time od. As far as wins go, I'll be looking for 8w/4l or better at the bye!
  13. Yep, after last year's off-season a statement needs to be made by the players. No better way to do so than show intent by coming back early, fit and ready to go.
  14. Good to see Harmes, Viney and Hunt back early. Good moral support for the younger players. Wouldn't be surprised to see most of the team back next week, before their expected date, which iirc is in about 10-14 days.
  15. I think the AFL closed the loophole exposed by Sydney and WCE last year. I think it was called 'parking' their picks. But the first part of the hypothetical Freo/GWS trade you describe can still happen. This article describes a hypothetical where Carlton bid for Henry at 9. Draft Night Pick Swaps "The AFL has confirmed that under its rules, a club in Fremantle's situation would be able to use its five minutes on the clock to trade picks with another club, move down the order, and then match the Academy bid with a later selection/s". ie hypothetically trade out pick 10 to GCS for 15 and 20 then use 15 and part of 20 (it slips to 22) for Henry. So they get Henry and another pick at 22. This is different to 'parking' picks. Lots of back room wheeling and dealing is happening! Lots to play out. As an aside the article says we are also interested in Henry.
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