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Nascent

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About Nascent

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  1. Some random musings. I think we'll keep pick 3 and split pick 8. We gave up 26 and 50 and a future first. It seems the club is more than optimistic of bouncing back into finals so from their point of view we are giving up a future pick in the 11-18 range. Factor in GC concessions and at worst it is 12, and even then that is likely to be pushed back a couple spots with NGA and acadamy bids. So say its 13, 28 (26 + Henry, Maginness bid) and 53 (+Mead bid). I think we'll bid on Green and GWS will match, ruling out GWS from pushing our pick 8 back. Rough estimate: 13, 28 and 53 (2122 points) for Pick 8 (1551 points). For examples sake, say we split 8 for Geelongs 14 and 17 (moved out to 15 and 18 post Henry bid). That gives us three 1st round picks in a supposedly "even" draft. Pick 15, 18 = 2097 points. I don't really care for the points system as its only really a guide on trading and bidding for f/s selections and NGA/acadamy players, but for those of you that do concern yourself with them, this makes the trade essentially even with North. We get into to the top 6 then we actually go ahead in this scenario. The argument against splitting pick 8 usually revolves around how much we gave up to get into the top 10. I'd counter that argument with the club viewing the trade period as a collective. We have already heard Taylor on the road to the draft podcast that he has a group of 35 players of quality. So they will be weighing up the value of 3, 8 and 70ish vs 3, 15 and 18. If the do decide to split, I'm more than comfortable with it knowing the recruiters will identify players they like in this range. Rivers is one I think will be there that has good wraps on him if we decide to split and miss out on Young or Ash. Likewise, if the rate a player at pick 8 far superior to two in the teens then I'll back them to make that call as well.
  2. I was initially against the idea of Jackson at 3, however it does make a lot of sense. He will fit our list needs perfectly by starting his career as a forward, lessening the workload of t-mac and weid, and giving Max a chop out in the ruck. In 5-6years when Maxy is slowing down and nearing the end he'll be primed to take on full ruck duties. The only query I have on him is his ability in the forward half due to his limited exposure there, but I'll trust the recruiters to make the correct call on that. Quality big men are much harder to find and with pick 8 we should still land a quality mid/back-flanker.
  3. Could see that happening. Also wouldn't rule out Gold Coast with picks 15 and 20 and them wanting to get another early first round selection.
  4. From Cal Twomey State-of-play-how-the-first-round-of-the-draft-is-shaping-up An update from Cal Twomey with some interesting tidbits, some of which as already been discussed here. Melbourne were offered a bundle of three picks by Giants (not stated which ones) for pick 3 which we rejected. Rivals thinks we are unlikely to move on pick 3 now. Giants no certainty to match a bid on Green if it comes as early as pick 3 (I don't believe that) Melbourne and Freo may do a swap of pick 8 and 10 so Freo can get 2 picks in before Henry (obviously other components to the trade but not discussed in the article) Cats possibly looking to acquire Carltons pick 9. Gold Coast keen on our pick 8 with picks 15 and 20.
  5. I'm bored so this is my 100% uneducated stab at the top 10. I haven't factored in potential trades of picks at this stage. Gold Coast - Matt Rowell Gold Coast - Noah Anderson Melbourne - Hayden Young GWS (matching Adelaide's bid) - Tom Green Adelaide - Sam Flanders Sydney - Caleb Serong Freemantle - Luke Jackson Melbourne - Brodie Kemp Carlton - Deven Robertson Freemantle - Lachie Ash Assuming we still have pick 3, I think Young is the one for us. It will be interesting to see who Adelaide go for and talk of Sydney being keen on Kemp is intriguing as well. If Kemp goes to Adelaide or Sydney then one of Serong or Flanders will be available at our pick with Freo having two high quality WA kids to pick from. I've gone Robertson for Carlton as I think they'll be looking for one more high quality inside production mid to compliment Cripps and Walsh but this could easily be flipped with Freo if they elect to take Robertson at 7. If Carlton are confident of getting Martin for free in one of the drafts I'm not convinced they'll place a bid on Henry. Still a way out from the draft but with live trading a few clubs having multiple picks in the top 10 it makes for an interesting draft. I wouldn't be opposed to taking Stephens at 8 as well, not so sure about Weightman.
  6. He and his management can refuse to talk to us all they want, once he's in the draft he's fair game. We have to be ruthless, not only will we improve our list, it will stop Carlton getting a freebie.
  7. For those that watch the TAC cup or follow the drat closely, is this the kid we want with our first pick? Looking forward to seeing highlight tapes of potential draftees soon.
  8. Would have him on the list over Stretch and Kennedy-Harris.
  9. Cheers @Lucifer's Hero for the info, should have gone to bed earlier as I completely overlooked Langdon and Tomlinson. Was also unaware we could still have 6 cat A rookies with a full squad of 40 and forgot about the supplemental draft in March. These players get added to the rookie list yes? It appears I'm too late to edit the original post so I'll post it again with the correct senior list this time. Happy for this to be merged into the other thread or deleted all together. Senior List Oscar Baker Toby Bedford Angus Brayshaw Bayley Fritsch Max Gawn Mitch Hannan James Harmes Michael Hibberd Marty Hore Jayden Hunt Neville Jetta Nathan Jones James Jordan Jay Kennedy-Harris Kade Kolodjashnij Ed Langdon Jake Lever Steven May Oscar McDonald Tom McDonald Jake Melksham Alex Neal-Bullen Aaron Neitschke Clayton Oliver Christian Petracca Harrison Petty Braydon Preuss Christian Salem Joel Smith Charlie Spargo Tom Sparrow Billy Stretch Adam Tomlinson Aaron Vandenberg Jack Viney Joshua Wagner Sam Weideman ------------------------------------------------- 39. 40. ------------------------------------------------- Rookies Cat A Kade Chandler Kyle Dunkley Jay Lockhart Corey Wagner Cat B · 1. Austin Bradtke* Possible Delistings Jay Kennedy-Harris Billy Stretch Draft Selections 3, 8, 97 So the state of play is we currently have 37 senior players and have to at least take 3 national draft selections or 2 and upgrade 1 to the senior list. If we delist Kennedy-Harris and/or Stretch we can opt to have another 1/2 players onto our senior list either via the national draft, rookie upgrades, delisted free agents and pre-season draft. *unsure if Bradtke re-signed as a cat B rookie or if has been moved to category A
  10. I can't see a trade with GWS that would satisfy us now that players are off the table and we've knocked back their future first rounder. Unless they can manufacture something worthwhile like another top 15 pick (unlikely) in this draft to go with pick 6 I think we will keep pick 3. If that's the case I hope we bid for Green and force them to use as many points as possible. We then take the next best talent at 4. Having said all that, I wouldn't be opposed to splitting pick 8 (pushed down to 9) on the night. One scenario (and I'm factoring in that Green will have an early bid and all subsequent picks have been moved down one) could be that Port maybe keen on Dylan Stephens but know he won't last to their pick 13. Would they be desperate enough to package up 13 and 19 to get their man at 9? We may be keen on Weightman at pick 9 anyway and it's possible that we will know that he will still be available at 13. We then have a free hit at 19 for Bergman or whoever. This is of course just a theoretical example but shows the flexibility we have with two high end picks.
  11. With the trade period more or less complete, I thought I would put together our list for people to refer to. Apologies if there is already a thread similar to this, mods feel free to move. The list has to be made up of between 38-40 Senior players, 4-6 Category A rookies and 0-3 Category B rookies. Essentially we can go into 2020 with a squad of 38 senior players and 6 Cat A rookies 39 senior players and 5 Cat A rookies 40 senior players and 4 Cat A rookies Senior List Oscar Baker Toby Bedford Angus Brayshaw Bayley Fritsch Max Gawn Mitch Hannan James Harmes Michael Hibberd Marty Hore Jayden Hunt Neville Jetta Nathan Jones James Jordan Jay Kennedy-Harris Kade Kolodjashnij Jake Lever Steven May Oscar McDonald Tom McDonald Jake Melksham Alex Neal-Bullen Aaron Neitschke Clayton Oliver Christian Petracca Harrison Petty Braydon Preuss Christian Salem Joel Smith Charlie Spargo Tom Sparrow Billy Stretch Aaron Vandenberg Jack Viney Joshua Wagner Sam Weideman ------------------------------------------------- 39. 40. ------------------------------------------------- Rookies Cat A Kade Chandler Kyle Dunkley Jay Lockhart Corey Wagner Cat B · 1. Austin Bradtke* Possible Delistings Jay Kennedy-Harris Billy Stretch Draft Selections 3, 8, 97, 115, 133, So the state of play is we currently have 35 senior players and have to at least take 3 national draft selections or 2 and upgrade one rookie to the senior list. This gets the squad to 38 senior listed players. If we delist Kennedy-Harris and Stretch then we need to fill the senior list with a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 7 players via the national draft, rookie upgrades, delisted free agents or the pre-season draft. *unsure if Bradtke re-signed as a cat B rookie or if has been moved to category A
  12. Indeed, but if Keith is still keen to go to the dogs would he not just nominate for the National Draft and attach contract terms to himself. That would be his best bet of getting past teams and slipping through to them. If he opts for the PSD he probably isn't getting there as us or GC will probably take him.
  13. I do remember that, but my understanding is the PSD was Stevens only option back then when a trade deal wasn't reached. The AFL have since changed the rules and allow uncontracted players to nominate for the National Draft. Keath and Martin, without coming to terms for a trade, can put a price on their head and try their luck in the National Draft, most likely making it through to their club of choice. Pretty sure it has only happened once with Ball though so I could be wrong about how it all works.
  14. This would be my ideal scenario. Out: Pick 3 In: Pick 6, Future 1st, and one of Hately, Caldwell or O'halloran. Can't see any further picks from GWS satisfying us. We don't get a player we like then I'd be happy to just go to the draft with 3 and 8 and force GWS to pay for Green with Pick 3. Can't really lose.
  15. I thought players could nominate for the National draft now and attach contract length and $ terms as well. Luke Ball the obvious example. Otherwise we could be eagerly awaiting either Keith or Martin to fall to us, and either would be nice to have on the list, but I don't think the PSD has much use anymore.
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