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Little Goffy

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Little Goffy last won the day on January 8 2017

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About Little Goffy

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    Master Demon
  • Birthday 12/01/1979

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    Sydney Damn It.

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  1. I'm still torn dammit. The talk of us being interested in Kysiah Pickett if we had a suitable late first rounded has me intrigued. And yet... I feel like there's now a better defined top group of players after Rowell and Anderson and pick 3 will get us our favourite of them while pick 8 is still guaranteed to get us someone we would be very interested in. To get Young would require pick 3, and that's fine for a long, accurate, smart kick who is no slouch on workrate or hardness either. It is almost certain that either Kemp (the most likely 'superstar' outside the top two) or Jackson (finally a ruck succession plan, with the bonus of being allegedly ready to be a very early AFL-starter as rucks go which also helps with the Gawn-longevity plan). I'm just totally chill, y'know? It's all gonna be all right, all right?
  2. Broderick. Broderegar. Brodiegenhaarn. Brodear. Brodocea. I'm sure we'll find a solution for Mr Kempington's unfortunate condition.
  3. I'm really staggered by the people throwing aroudn bizarrely uninformed comments like "how will this improve out goal kicking" or "how will this stop us being a basket-case' and so on. Let's see now - the data can now tell us, for each player, exactly how well their fiel kicking is going when you look at it for long kicks, short kicks, kicks under pressure, kicks on the run, kicks from different parts of the ground, you can even cut for how and who from they received the ball. That doesn't just tell you about their ball drop or action, it tells you how they react to the different situations. Is such-and-such reliable when they are playmaking with a little time from half-back but tend to go for blind bombs or dinky low-value options once they are in congestion. Or even if the actual part of the ground changes confidence and behaviour - do they hear footsteps and rush their kicks when in the middle even when they aren't under immediate pressure, but have a little more steadiness with the reassurance that their blind side is covered by the boundaries? So, there's a tiny fragment of the kind of thing that can be isolated by just one stat area. You can even answer questions of blame in some ways - is there a particularly player who isn't spreading enough but calls for it and get short pointless little handball receives and then gets tackles or has to dish it off again for just as pointless a next handball? Or is there a particular player who dishes off the pointless short handball without considering better options? The full package can filter it all out to see which end of the 'equation' is the problem, identify specific weaknesses in specific players when to even the most astute normal observer it just looks like another centre clearance chain breaking down. Who actually improves when the game in tight? Who loses accuracy and effectiveness quickly after certain amounts of fatigue and who can keep going a bit longer without suffering too much? The depth of stats now available, combined with GPS, is now like having a hundred extra pairs of eyes all watching the game for any given aspect of every individual player. And that sheer volume of information is just junk of you don't have someone genuinely skilled to filter it, identify anything interesting and give that feedback to the relevant people. Absolutely yes. It will improve out kciking. It will improve out inside 50s. Because we will It will have consisent information about where things are breaking down and what needs to be improved. And it definitely can improve our gameplan and even game-day felxibility because it gives us much clearer knowledge of who is best for what roles and who can effectively shift around to make new combinations. I'll end the rant there but seriously, people, enough with the "I don't need no MRI, just do the brain surgery."
  4. Ah, but there's the ultimate slippery slope. If you drug test lawyers, you'll get so many detections that all the lawyers will need lawyers so more people will have to become lawyers, who will then be drug tested and have detections so they will also need lawyers. This process continues until 100% of the population is drug tested. A simpler solution would just be to drug test everyone constantly until enough false positive results have come through that the proverbial playing field is levelled out again. NSW Police will love it. "Step into the tent, little girl."
  5. Not sure it is realistic to call the Carlton process unde SOS a knock-down rebuild. There have been very few mature players of note they've pushed out the door since 2015. And most of those were pretty keen to find the exit on their own. Tuohy wanted out, Gibbs wanted out for more than a year before he made his escape at what was a terrific return for the club as well. Almost all the senior exits were made in 2015 too - Henderson, Bell, Menzel, Yarran. Looking at that, it's not as if they were trading our their core! Meanwhile, I think you could say in any given one of the last five years they brought in more 'age' than they have traded out. They've ended up with a huge gap in their 23-27 yr age range but that's got more to do with a wave of terrible drafting since... um... yeah. Such quality as they did have, they've held on to. It's not a good sign for a rebuild if your most valiable Simpson (35) Murphy (32) Kruezer (30) Ed Curnow (30) and now once again the esteeemed Eddie Betts (33). Annyway, for all that I don't think they've done especially well with list management, there's no mistaking that is a team has even a handful of really great players then it is possible for a collection of 'just pretty good' players to fill it out successfully. All it takes is that moment of belief and a plan that uses the strengths and mitigates the weaknesses. Just look at Richmond and the Dogs.
  6. Trouble is, Carlton is riddled with know-it-all coterie members and influential backers to a degree even well beyond that of other AFL clubs. Just ask Brett Ratten, who dared to be realistic in his list evaluation all those years ago. The 'influential' rich people got in a huff and decided they could buy success and all it needed was someone willing to be paid enough. Who knows how much Silvagni has been hamstrung by these people? "Oooh, you know who would be just right? Tom Papley. Yeah I'll have a word with him through a mate of a mate at the yacht club. Nah it's a sure thing don't worry about trying to keep options open or keep any cards close to our chest." Of course, it could also be that the big ego and aggression Silvagni has shown did a good job of keeping those people at bay and the whole ordinary last few years really is his fault. We can also light a bonfire with the 'selection versus development' debate we all know so well. 2015 alone, with Weitering, Curnow and McKay, shows three players who all could conceivable be top level but just aren't putting it together. But then they've had a few kind of average top picks (Petrevski-Seton and Dow) before getting Walsh. Also, aside from the all-important Cripps, they could barely show two rocks to bang together for the last half dozen drafts. You have to go back to their string of no.1 picks plus Josh Kennedy at 4. Honestly, the grab-bag that SOS collected was something he had to do in emergency conditions. Anything to get some semblance of a team in place. What will happen from here with Carlton I think is a 50/50 split between the extremes of either coming together as a young unit just in time before the haul of veterans retire - and thereby being set up for a long term competitive era. OR they wont be able to get traction and too many of those young guys will just coast on their talent and Carlton will spend another five years lurking around the bottom of the table. Personally, I think the Demons under Roos, Viney and Taylor managed a much more effective 'emergency plan' while also bring in more likely long term talent. Of particular importance we aren't relying on one lone beast to hold our clearance game together.
  7. Personally I wont be convinced until I see an interprative dance number. "But how does pick three make you feeeeeeeeel, on the insiiiiiide? Now show it, shoooow me what pick three feels like. Share your draft story with the word!"
  8. Maybe he'll wait until he sees the fixture to decide which club?
  9. 1. Fritsch - Snuck under the radar and was experimented with for much of 2019 but despite all that his numbers bear out what watching him would also tell you - he is inside the best 5 drafted in his year (2017). When finally settled forward he managed two goals a game in the final seven rounds. That's no small achievement in a team that was breaking down so badly inside 50. Also to his credit is great consistency, especially considering how much he was moved around. A smart player with at least 'good' in every area of skill and attitude. 2. Petracca - The potential beast. Game ripper. His best is as good as any you care to name. Developed some more of that all-important consistency with no real 'dud' games in the second half of the season. to my mind the word lacking from our midfield players for many years has been 'dangerous' - Good Version Petracca makes things happen, kicks goals and creates goals and demands attention at a whole strategic level from opposition coaches. If Petracca is 'on' and you don't have a plan for it, you're in trouble. 3. Tom McDonald - Like Petracca, when Tom McDonald is at his finest he is a top-level player in his position. How much it ws something about his body or something going on between his ears we can't be sure. But in our five wins this season McDonald kicked 14 goals while barely troubling the scorers the rest of the time. Body right and confidence restored he is just priceless, contribution effectively in every way (even tackles inside 50!) with a huge workrate. His best changes the team. 4. Angus Brayshaw - "You're better than that, Angus" could sum up his 2019. How many times have we each thought it? (except for those who have written him off) Seeing Brayshaw blindly dink kicks around or thoughtlessly run into trouble, handball to someone in no better position or call for it when he was in no better position, or simply fail to run to anywhere useful at crucial moments - it all hurts because many of us remember him being a smart and accountable player who built his game on being pretty good at everything and pretty alert all game. On the theme of 'pretty good at everything', a comparison of his 2019 to 2018 quickly shows that in 2019 he was a bit worse in every aspect. No single stat suddenly collapses, it was simply that in every area he fell away a bit, from 'generally excellent' to 'yeah alright'. The exception to this also tells the story - his "meters gained" stat dropped away massively in 2019, confirming for everyone what we saw with our own eyes - his disposal just wasn't getting as much done in 2019 as it had in 2018. Bring back smart, confident Brayshaw and it changes our midfield and is a pleasure to watch as well. 5. Jake Melksham - The king of goal assists, topping the AFL for goal assists per game for two years running. And that depsite our forward line getting lost down a mine in 2019. Even so, he was short of his best - or simply short of opportunities to play his role as someone who rewards the efforts of others. He never stopped taking on the game even as all around became more and more negative. That made him look like an idiot sometimes, but it was after all the fear of looking like an idiot that spooked the minds of so many of our players. If 2020 comes to look like 2018 reloaded with the bonus of some extra contributors on the wings, Melksham will be rolling the dice many many times and it will be fun to watch and potent for the team. I'm not saying he will improve dramatically in 2020 - I'm saying if the team lifts then his efforts will be dramatically better rewarded. Fair mention to the host of 'out to injury' and 'mysterious form slump' types, like Jetta, Lever, May, Hibberd, Vandenberg, Smith, and of course Viney.
  10. Our midfield (counting the players who at least spend a substantial amount of time there) seems to be structured in three layers as far as TOG goes. Viney and Brayshaw both played a slice less than others - at 73 and 78%. Oliver, Harmes and Jones all round to 83% I do find it interesting that Salem is at 85% (obviously with more time spent not chasing the ball around the park) but the big surprise I noticed during the year was that Petracca was out at 88%, less than 2% off being our player 'most on the ground'. As well as putting a question against people claiming he is un-fit (he is getting >15 minutes less rest than Viney, for example) it also gets me thinking about a rotation where we deliberately end up with a kind of double-midfield. There's no doubt that Petracca and Oliver can be effective for spells up forward, I'd speculate that Viney might spend valuable time there as well as a pressure-providing small forward. In the other direction, we were already trialling having Melksham spent more time on the ball. And I'll just be cheeky here and say whatever your opinion of Nibbler, we can all agree that is he similarly effective across the forward line on in midfield! It is just as easy to see Fritsch, Langdon and Tomlinson rotating wings and half-forward in whatever proportions get the best out of them and confuse our opponents most. It would be a great overall position to be able to quickly and seamlessly switch players between forward and midfield/wing at any time during a game.
  11. What really struck me was how little time Young took to both spot an 'interesting' target and get his body organised to make the kick. The brain is working through the problem in front of him even as he is aware of what is going on closer around him. I'm a little excited and also enjoying thinking of past players with his ability. A bit of Trapper, a bit of Ooze?
  12. It has been a long hard road for pick 6 which, after being truly awful through the nineties, has improved over time and even had a couple of good seasons more recently. But clearly we're talking about one of those picks that only ever shows glimpses of their talent and is forever 'one good preseason away' from being a real performer. 1998 Murray Vance 1999 Damian Cupido 2000 Dylan Smith 2001 Ashley Sampi 2002 Steven Salopek 2003 Kepler Bradley 2004 Tom Williams 2005 Beau Dowler 2006 Mitch Thorp 2007 David Myers 2008 Chris Yarran 2009 Gary Roahn 2010 Reece Conca 2011 Chad Wingard 2012 Jackson Macrae 2013 Matthew Sharenberg 2014 Caleb Marchbank 2015 Aaron Francis 2016 Sam Petrevski-Seton 2017 Jaidyn Stephenson 2018 Ben King
  13. The description sounds very suitable and the highlights support it. Would have the advantage also of letting Casey play with a similar set-up to Melbourne. Although it seems like he might actually be the most flexible and all-round effective of our defenders. I'm still keen on splitting three, especially now we have 8 to keep in the early wave of talent, so count me for the affirmatives.
  14. Cat's are all 'in the now' and clinging on to the chance of a premiership while they still got the ssssuperssstarrrrssssss available. Their minds are fully set to being on top in one crucial month each year. Unfortunely for them that month is August. What I'm saying is, like the US Military choosing not to study counter-insurgency after Vietnam, Geelong can't even bring themselves to think about players who might not be champions this comign August. So them delisting someone doesn't mean much. I know nothing about Buzza except he is big and has a fun name and, allegedly, has a real crack. But that, and people's comments about his VFL-level respectability, meh, whynot throw a rookie spot at him?
  15. Two best 22 players in, one of which is realistically top-10 and both of which fill needs. Frost out is something that people have hugely varying opinions on, almost as variable as the possible value of the 2020 first rounder. I'm very happy with being early in this allegedly 'deep at the front' draft instead of 'somewhere' in the allegedly compromised' 2020 draft, even at the cost of the second rounder we threw in to make it happen. I'm a big fan of the 'high-low' approach to draft that we've (under Taylor especially) used these last five or six years while picking up the likes of Hibberd, Melksham and now Langdon with the 'in-betweener' picks. Very happy. Still some action to play out with the pick trading right onto draft night. I'm sure GWS will be constantly reassing how early they need to be to get ahead of any bids for Green. Wild times.
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