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Everything posted by Watson11

  1. 4. Our forward 50 stoppages work and we can score from them or if we don’t score can defend them. Preuss, just because of his size, seems to be as good or better than Gawn at stoppages. Small sample so far, but in the Pies practice game and Thursday he has kicked a goal in each game from a boundary throw in. I don’t recall us kicking a goal in the first 3 games from a stoppage, but I recall plenty where opposition easily ran it out down the other end for a goal.
  2. Sorry but don’t agree and think it’s structural. If we apply intense pressure in the forward 50 then we force turnovers and the opposition uncontested numbers are down. Second half was good. First half was like first 3 games. Forward 6 need more time to gel defensively.
  3. Nor does three losses a winter footy season make. Despite our terrible form, I’m still having us up there in contention in Sep. I’ll panic when we have 9 losses for the season. Second half showed how important the forward 6 are to our defence. I’d like to see Goody settle on Tracc, Weid, Preuss, Melk, Hunt, Tmac, and JSmith, AVB when fit as our forward 6 and rotations. If we can settle our forward 6 and they click defensively then we will be very very hard to beat from July on. Love Spargo but he needs time to build strength so his tackles stick. Preuss is really important. He stopped the leakage from forward 50 stoppages last night.
  4. I missed a bit of the game, but what I did see we looked a lot better team with Preuss contesting stoppages in the forward 50. We won stoppage clearances by a mile tonight, and looked like we could have scored from most of the ones I saw. Contrast last 3 weeks where our forward 50 stoppages were more likely to result in goals at the other end.
  5. Compare that to % of scores we concede from inside 50s. We are well over 50% defensively. We have also lost contested possession every game which is our strength. The fact Port and Essendon didn’t smash us, and Geelong only put us to the sword from half way though the 3rd quarter after 1 1/2 quarters of our forward time dominance without scoring, is because we actually have a champion midfield (even if they are not in great form). Our problems in the prelim last year were so different (smashed in contested possession and we turned it over in our defensive half and midfield). This year it has been all our forward 50 dysfunction that has started our problems. Ben Guthrie summed it up perfectly. We are not winning contests down there and terrible structures are leaving free opponents everywhere. Has been the issue from JLT1. https://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-04-07/nine-things-we-learned-from-round-three We will win a flag when our structures allow us to beat teams even when we lose contested possession.
  6. You need defensive leaders to make the mids and forwards accountable. Lewis, Lever, May are natural leaders with the authority to tear shreds off those up the field when they don’t do their defensive job. Right now none of our back 6 seem to have that. Consequence are these sickening runs of bags of goals.
  7. Gloomy place demonland these days. About tonight. I can imagine what both coaches did all week. Essendon - Looked at the tape against Geelong and know we bomb it to 20m 9/10 times. They’ll have their defensive tactics sorted and have 3 defenders dropping back, and the others spreading to get outside leaving plenty of Melbourne players free (as we never take the best options) Melbourne - Looked at the tape against Geelong and know we bombed long 9/10 times despite plenty of free players in our forward 50. Directed to always take the free option. If we win contested possession and clearance (expected) and do what Goody is asking and take free options heading inside 50 we’ll win easily. If Essendon lose contested possession (expected) they need to pressure our mids so we bomb. They are a good chance if that happens. Hopefully tonight is the start of a turnaround.
  8. Another idea. If plan A doesn’t work, make sure we get a stoppage, and then instead of 10 of our players going in to win the ball, we structure up properly and make sure there are no easy kicks coming out. Most scoring comes from turnovers. At the moment we can’t create them.
  9. Optimist in me says we are only one game behind the really good sides, and our structural flaws are so obvious that we can’t not rectify them. We are more likely to be in form by August because of yesterday than if we’d had a full team in and a couple of scrappy wins based on winning contested possession but hiding our structural issues.
  10. Until we get a system around the ball, we’ll struggle, as even when we halve contested possession we will get smashed as our disposal forward is rushed and hacked and we still just leave so much space on the outside. It’s almost like players don’t know their roles, and all are trying to get contested numbers. I’m not convinced we’ll hit our straps until quite a few weeks from now. I can just imagine the coaching group coming down on the players like a ton of bricks for losing the contest, and just compounding our disorganisation.
  11. Knees, ankles, broken bones etc are just bad luck. But I had an interesting chat with a conditioning coach at an unnamed AFL club over preseason. He shared what they were doing quite openly. Hopefully he didn’t think it was confidential. I won’t name the club just in case. This club had an horrendous injury list last year. I asked him the same question re bad luck, and his view is it’s a combination of bad management and bad luck. He told me they did a massive review in the middle of last year and changed lots of things. They have always been like most clubs measuring GPS stuff and looking st loads. But they have taken the science stuff to a new level. Players muscle strength is now measured using some kind of machines before every training session and compared to normal. They do pin [censored] blood tests regularly as apparently they can tell when muscles are more vulnerable. They measure players sleep patterns. They video players running at training and it automatically measures gait to look for overstriding so they can correct it. All the data is reviewed all the time to try and work out when to drop training loads. He said they are working with a Uni to have AI analyse all the data, and believes in 5 years they’ll be even better than their current interpretation of the data. I was interested to see that they went into the season without a single soft tissue injury. I’ll be interested to see over the season if that was just good luck or whether all of this sports science they are doing so far is making a difference. We have had a lot of soft tissue injuries over summer. And really bad history with feet. Potentially it’s time for Melbourne to get new ideas in. Or maybe it’s just bad luck. I don’t know.
  12. Richmond had the 2nd most inside 50s last year because even though they lost centre clearances, they would intercept and transition quickly to their forward 50 and then lock it in. They zone up and pressure well when sides are trying to transition out of defence and create lots of intercepts and repeat inside 50s. Watching last night, Collingwood just picked their zone apart repeatedly and Cox and Rance were not the reason. In fact, Rance would have made zero difference last night as Richmond’s defence last night was defending a lot of uncontested kicks into the forward 50.
  13. If you think back to early 2000’s control footy started at Port Adelaide when Clarkson was an assistant. Port consistently finished top after home and away playing it, but consistently bombed out in finals. Back in those days there was no such thing as zones, it was all man on man defence. Port had to develop extra plans to win the flag, and they did. Is man on man defence a better counter to the control game plan. Definitely sides would need to work harder to defend.
  14. Not since 2015. Haven’t won a final.
  15. Richmond, us, and a few other teams rely heavily on zone defence. Richmond have been by far the best at it, but last night they were completely dismantled by Collingwoods game plan to counter it. Did Collingwood just have an amazing night, or will good teams now consistently dismantle zone defences?
  16. Bad luck for him. Collingwood getting overconfident with knees maybe because Goldsack came back so quickly? Happy for Lever to take 12 months to get back. Even 13 months if needed
  17. I'm loving all this media. More of this sort of stuff the better.
  18. This week can’t come around fast enough. How they respond to mistakes and challenges will define the team, coaches, and the players.
  19. A 108kg giant can’t run out a game in 39C heat and that is the reason he is out of favour. I wouldn’t think so. He was ok when it was 25C the week before. If he is out of favour he would have specific things Goody wants him to work on. Personally, I’d play Preuss just for his stoppage work. From the limited body of evidence I have he is miles behind Max at centre bounces, but probably as good at stoppages. And our forward 50 stoppages have been an embarrassment except for the Collingwood practice game.
  20. So if we play Port again, and if they go with 3 tall forwards 197cm and taller again, would you still go with an undersized 3rd defender.
  21. The Tigers were 15th in uncontested possessions last year. They excel in intercepts because the opposition ball carrier is always under pressure.
  22. I’d say the exact same about Richmond. One or two super quick players like us. But otherwise not a quick team but not slow. They just never, ever look slow because they structure up so well.
  23. I’ve got a much more useful stat. The team that is 3-0 in the last 3 games of the year is 100% guaranteed to win the flag.
  24. Malcolm Blight did this in 1997 and 1998, co-incidentally Goody's first 2 years as a player. He killed them in pre-season. Both seasons they started poorly and were 2w 4l after 6 rounds. Both seasons they were not guaranteed of a finals spot until round 21 or 22, but despite this he did a 4 week training block leading up to finals to make sure they were the fittest team going into September. Both seasons they ended 13-9 (edit 14-8 in 97) and that suicide block could have backfired. With 5 games left they were either percentage or a single game from being outside the 8. But both times he had them at their peak in September and the rest was history. They really pinched those 2 flags, but after being the bridesmaid 4x at Geelong, it was all or nothing for Blighty.
  25. Tmac is surely being managed as well. He played 80% game time which is low for him. Wied played 93%. Wied was good in the first quarter. But he doesn’t have the tank to play those minutes, even on a cool day.
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