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Everything posted by Watson11

  1. Anyone watching. Apparently Gaff threw a round house and has knocked out Andrew Brayshaws teeth. Sounds like not too different to Bugg last year!
  2. We can win the next 2 (today and Sydney) and still miss the 8 though. If the 3 games today go as expected, then 3rd is 0.5 games clear of 4th to 8th (we'll be 4th). Geelong and North are a game behind. Geelong and North are a chance to win their last 3. Geelong's big game is against the Hawks. Norths big game is against Adelaide in Adelaide. If those two get it done, then I fear 1 out of the last 3 for us will see us miss and end up 9th. We could win 2 out of out last 3 and end up 3rd. It is that close. Either way I think we are really close and just need to fix a few things to be able to beat anyone. I'd rather see us playing good footy and addressing some of our issues than scraping into the 8 with 1 win in the last 3 weeks. I'm glass half full that we can win 3 of our last 4, and maybe all of them.
  3. Port play west coast in Adelaide next week with a few showers forecast. I don’t rate Port that highly but hopefully they’ll make it a slog next week.
  4. First 2 years were below the threshold for shots at goal that I consider significant (40 shots on goal or less :-)) The stats you quote are not correct. He turned 25 in 2012. 2012 and before he kicked 520.384 at 57.5%. 2013 and after 384.60 at 59.6%. He was not at 60.95% under 25. Hint : If a player kicks 0.1 in year 1 (0%) and 150.0 in year 2 (100%), their conversion rate over both years is 99.3%, not 50%. That maths would work well on a Collingwood forum 🙂
  5. Not sure where I stated Bugg is as good a player as Swan and Franklin. Statistically that group all improved their kicking after the age of 25 which was the point being made. It would be a bonus if Bugg could improve his goalkicking. The players ranked 16 to 30 on a list are important and I'd take any player in that group who averages 16 disposals at 73% efficiency with 3.4 tackles.
  6. I rate Bugg. I think we have a strong list and he can't break back in because he is behind others but a few more injuries and we'll need him. But Buggs disposal efficiency overall (except this year) is pretty good but his goalkicking is average. Look at his career stats and he is consistently above 70% in DE (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pc-melbourne-demons--tomas-bugg?advv=Y) Players can fix their goalkicking yips no matter their age. I don't have time to give you 10 but a few obvious players who have improved with age. Dane Swan butchered the ball early in his career. Pre 2010 (up to age 25) had 4 out of 6 seasons with <50% goal kicking conversion. Post 2010 only dropped below 50% once. Lindsay Thomas had a bad case of the goal-kicking yips early in his career. In 2011 when he was 23 he kicked 21.36. He kicked 51.23 in 2013 when he was 25. From 24 years of age on he fixed his issues and had really good conversion rates. Buddy Franklin. From age 20-25 his goal kicking conversion rate was only 60% or more once. Since age 26 it has only been below 60% once.
  7. I somewhat agree. Viney's a brilliant player but we are so deep with inside mids that it shouldn't make or break this season. He is missed in last quarters when the game is on the line but we need others to learn to step up and lead as well. I'd rule a line through him for the season if there is any risk of re-injury. Make sure we have Viney, Oliver, Brayshaw, Petracca etc together for next year and the years after. These guys are aged 24, 21, 22 and 22 so we want to make sure they are at their peaks for the next 6-7 years. No point in risking ruining Viney's foot in my opinion. Max is only 26, Hogan and McDonald 23 and 25, Lever is 22 and so we have the backbone of a superteam. I'd love to snag a flag ala baby bombers, hawthorn (2008), bulldogs (2016) this year, but not that the expense of risking long term problems.
  8. I can’t wait until our mids consistently lower their eyes first going into 50 and hit up Tmac or Hoges if they are on the lead, with the long kick to a contest as the second option. If we learn to do that we’ll be the no 1 scoring team for the next 5 years and Tmac and Hoges will be all time greats!
  9. Didn't Nic Nat and Lever both do their good knees?
  10. He wasn't great against Port, but he contributed and he has been pretty good in some other big games. Against Port if our mids had lowered their eyes going inside 50 Hogan could have had a day out. He's our top 3 quickest according to AFL tracker and we don't hit him up on the lead enough. Our mids seem more comfortable kicking long to a contest and so he stays back too much.
  11. http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-04-20/improving-demon-just-keeps-on-running He runs hard both ways as well.
  12. I was at the game, sitting high in the stand, but didn't notice the breeze, even in the last quarter when it rained. You could see the direction of the rain coming down pretty clearly and there was probably just a slight breeze favouring Adelaide. Great win though. Adelaide were 100% on and we seemed off and they beat us on most of the stats that count, so to get the win was huge.
  13. I agree. Coaches almost need to be psychologists these days to get the best from their players. I don’t think he should smash them in the media. Just not let them hear they lost due to things they can’t fix quickly like inexperience, even if the closed door stuff is different. Players listen to all of it.
  14. I agree with the stoppage comment, but think contested ball is our biggest strength but when it gets tight becomes a double edge sword. When the pressure goes on we seem to have nearly every player around a stoppage focussed on winning contested ball and no on field leadership making sure our structures don’t crumble so we can defend stoppages. I’m sure Goodwin knows this stuff and is working on it, but It’s taking longer to sort than anyone would like. The only criticism I have of Goodwin is he needs to think through his public messages. The truth might be that Geelongs leaders are more experienced etc etc but that just says to the midfield group you have an excuse because you are young.
  15. Agree. He’s the right man for the job. He has a list capable of a flag and almost has them playing a style capable of beating anyone. These losses are heartbreaking, but I think if Lever wasn’t down we may have won three of the close losses and glossed over the defensive skills the mids/forwards need for us to get to be genuine contenders. He’ll get them there and we’ll be a better team over the next couple of years and hopefully this year for it.
  16. 100%. Mids/forwards need to learn how to defend in stoppages. Omac is off but up against it when the balls coming in that quick
  17. I agree with the stoppages comment, and think this is the main issue we have. In general we haven't had workrate issues like we saw against the Saints. But in my opinion our stoppage work is really poor and has been most of the season, despite Max dominating. The big concern is whether the coaches think our stoppage style is a strength because we usually win the clearance count. Problem is most clearances we win are rushed and scrappy as there are several Melbourne players within a couple of metres of the ball. Opposition clearances tend to be cleaner with a good outlet handball and then exposing us in defense. For the Collingwood game we were obviously so hyped up for that game that we looked like Under 8's all chasing the ball, and Collingwood really hurt us from stoppages just through better structure. That's not lack of effort, but just structure and should be easy to fix.
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