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fr_ap last won the day on May 1 2016

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  1. I agree ignition - I am warning to the idea of him more and more at either of our picks. We do not have a positional need but you can never have too many prime movers. If he forces Gus and Viney to shape up that's only a positive as well.
  2. From the little I've seen (watched the u18 grand final in a game where Henry, Jackson, Kemp, young, serong, flanders and ash all played), I would be happy to pick him up at 8. His performance that day was outstanding - all I could see was Selwood in terms of his toughness, leadership, and defensive acts. Seems to know his limitations, doesn't try too much. Can kick, but not brilliantly. Good distributor by hand. Would question whether he is a need for us given our inside mids but irrespective I would be very surprised if he doesn't hit the ground running for whatever club drafts him next year. Also thought Henry and Jeremy Sharp were very impressive in that game. Sharp in particular could be the best player from this draft in 5 years. Young, ash and serong all underwhelming (Serong will bust IMO, looks like the type to have peaked as a teenager). I was sold on Young until I watched this game. Only one game but definitely showed his weaknesses and in comparison to Ash, lack of run. Would LOVE Henry as he is everything we need. Such a shame he is academy tied. I could also see the bones of Jackson as a fwd ruck, but not a gamble I would take at 3. Would love Kemp at 3 or 8. Could be anything. Do not understand the fascination with Flanders. Might have some tricks one day but an all around meh package at the moment. Would encourage you all to watch it on the AFL website, just google Vic country vs WA.
  3. I'll ask the question, but I can't divulge the source because whilst it is the same data set that the club's have...they do have to pay for it (if they choose - every club pays for different levels of data as some consider it more important than others), so its not *meant* to be available to the public.
  4. By not recruiting to replace at least some of Hogan's output, apparently the FD think he doesn't struggle. All I think this analysis helps to show is that he isn't at the level (yet). To be honest I don't think Tmac is either as a #1 key fwd. The analysis of who has played on who of course has flaws...but you needn't look further than the results of these two guys this year absent Jesse. The final couple of rounds and Finals last year were relative outliers (notwithstanding Weid only played on Henderson and Mirra) - we had a head of steam and the entire team lifted. The proof is there - and if the FD thinks we can go into next year after addressing outside run and not much else, barring huge development in Weideman's game we won't improve the way they might think we will.
  5. Absolutely, the length and breadth of our injury list has meant we've not only lost many best 22 members, but the depth that would have replaced them as well. Particularly on the positional breakdown though - you would actually prefer to be missing maybe 2 mids, one back and one forward (If you only have 4 out). The fact we have had either 4 or 3 of our front/back 6 unavailable compounds the absences...by definition your depth chart for each position can only be a couple deep. Replacing almost your entire forward or backline isn't really possible for any team in the comp. That's what we've had to deal with this year. Re. Weid/Tom Mac - that data is fairly damning I think. Yes they've both had good days against good opposition but it is few and far between. Tom Mac's level is against the 2nd best defender. Weid is still young so there is scope for him to get to that level or at a stretch, the best defender. At the moment though the data says he generally only has good games on the 3rd stringers.
  6. I am lucky to have a close contact with access to a lot of AFL statistics (the same data set the clubs generally have available to them ). I asked him to do some digging on the Dees' season, in particular looking for anything that would prove useful in helping us all understand where things have gone wrong this year. In no particular order, this is what he found: There's been a lot of discussion about injuries, and lately, Richmond and Collingwood fans complaining they have it the worst of all. The data says we have averaged 6.5 'best 22' players missing over the first 19 rounds of the season; in total we have missed 117 'best 22' games. Richmond have averaged 5.11 (92 total), while Collingwood have averaged 3.94 (71 total). This highlights Richmond's depth as stronger than both Melbourne or Collingwood - they've got guys like Caddy running around in the VFL while we have...JKH/Dunkley/Lockhart and Coll have Daicos/Brown etc. Looking at the round by round breakdown of this - you can see that this number (# of best 22 injured) correlates strongly with form. Richmond's injuries have improved markedly since the bye and their form has peaked. Collingwood's have been unlucky with injury since the bye and they have been ordinary. Of course we've been ordinary for the whole year... When you break this down by position it confirms what we know - our midfield has stayed pretty much full strength all year, but the forward and backline have had either 3.77 best 22 players missing on average (fwd line) or 2.6 best 22 players missing on average (backline). The impact on both ends of the grounds shouldn't be underestimated and suits the narrative of our year - unable to score, unable to defend inside 50s, but still ok at generating our own (pre-game plan change in the last couple of weeks). Goodwin keeps trotting out that we've had no continuity at either end of the ground - and he's right. I've attached these two breakdowns to this post. Don't pay much attention to sirswampthing's post highlighting that Collingwood have the most 'games played' on the injuries list. Break that out and 750 of those games are from players outside the best 22 / retiring (e.g Wells, Beams, Goldsack etc.). Misleading and clickbait for the biggest supporter base. Out of players who have played at least 10 games, Frost and OMac are the two who have cost us the most scores as a % of their turnovers. Frost is ranked 12th in the league (1st = a really bad thing), conceding a score 34% of the time he turns it over, resulting in 17 shots at goal (9 goals 8 ) directly from his turnovers. Omac is ranked 15th in the league, conceding a score 33% of the time. Bailey Fritsch has cost us the most amount of points from turnovers this year. His 66 turnovers for the year (ranked equal 94th in the league) have cost us 89 points directly, which is ranked 4th in the comp. We all love his skills; but his turnovers hurt us. We're better with him camped inside 50 and our increased efficiency over the last 3 weeks is in no small part due to having a natural forward like him back in the 50. In order of worst to best, the top 8 players who have hurt us the most and have resulted in an overall negative score from turnovers and intercepts combined are: Fristch, Omac, Frost, Hibberd, Hore, Brayshaw, Salem, J Wagner. Other than Fritsch and Brayshaw this isnt surprising; our defenders can't kick. Salem has had more ball than any of these guys but is 7th on the list; so he is the best kick we have in the D50 (other than Jones when he plays there). Conversely, the players who have generated the most scores from intercepts, while keeping their turnovers to a minimum, and to have played at least 10 games, are: Jones, Petracca, Gawn, Oliver, Viney (Surprising!), Lockhart, Hunt, Tmac, Harmes. James Harmes is the only player at the Dees ranked in the top 50 (49th) for average handball receives per game, which is an indicator of outside run. For context, Richmond have 6 players in the top 50; Collingwood have 8. Petracca is mostly accurate everywhere: he is 10.8 from set shots, 5.1 on the run, 4.3 from snaps, 1.0 from mark play on, 1.0 off the ground. 5.0 from <15m, 4.4 from 15-30m, 2.2 from 31-40m, 7.4 from 41-50m, 3.2 from 50m+. He's above AFL average in all these categories, with exception of 15-30m and 31-40m kicking, which is bang on AFL average. Harmes is not accurate from anywhere. He has 3.3 from <15m, an awful 2.6 from 31-40m and 4.8 from 41-50m. Against Richmond, 14 players had less than one tackle. This was widely discussed. However, it wasn't from lack of effort. We had more tackle attempts than Richmond, but went at 25% efficiency. Poor technique, not strong enough, lazy, mentally checked out, who knows. The loss of Hogan on Tom Mac and Wiedeman should not be understated. Last year, Weideman played 3 good games - vs. West Coast in Rd 22, then Geelong in the EF and Hawks in the SF. His opponents in those games based on most % of gametime were: Brad Sheppard (HBFer, not a KPD), Lachie Henderson and David Mirra. This year, Weideman has had 3 games of 'good' output, 2 pass marks and 6 poor matches. The 3 good games he played on: Jacob Weitering, Aaron Francis, Jack Watts. Decent names but not A grade defenders by any means. The pass mark games, he played on Darcy Moore and Tom Mccartin. The poor games, he played on Harris Andrews, Griffin Logue/Joel Hamling, Alex Keath, David Astbury, Nathan Brown/Josh Battle, Mark Blicavs. Basically, when he played on good or experienced opponents, he's not much chop. Now lets look at who Tom Mac towelled up last year on his way to 50 goals: Patrick Ambrose, Jack Carlisle, Rory Thompson, Sam Rowe, Myles Poholke, Jason Johannisen, Matt Scharenberg, Dougal Howard, Jackson Trengove, Josh Jenkins, Tom Barrass, Lachlan Keefe, James Frawley. This is a who's who of average defenders/mismatches save for Barrass and Frawley (dont ask about Jenkins; perhaps Tom went back that day? I can't remember). This year Tom Mac has had to play on Tom Jonas, Mark Blicavs, Phil Davis, Daniel Talia and so on. The only defender he towelled up was Liam Jones. His best games were against Jones, Oscar Allen, Aliir Aliir. This info is available to the coaching staff. If they haven't looked at this and realised that our two KPF hopes are not capable of playing on top line defenders and that we need a key fwd to take the heat off these guys, then you have to wonder what they are doing. Oscar Mcdonald has only had one 'good' performance this year - against Nick Blakey. He has been beaten by: Josh Jenkins, Shaun McKernan, Tom Papley (mismatch), Paddy Ryder and Josh Corbett. Frost has beaten: Tom Lynch (Rich, early on), Levi Casboult, Josh Bruce, Jarryd Roughead, and Jack Lukosius. Has been beaten by: Lance Franklin, Jeremy Cameron, Jack Darling, Jack Riewoldt, Eric Hipwood. Angus Brayshaw played 90% of his time on ground last year in the midfield. This year, that is down to 60%. He has spent 24% of his time on the wing, 16% in the forward line. Of our top 5 centre bounce attendees, Brayshaw was also our most effective centre square player we had last year across a number of measures: Clearance differential (19.4, ahead of next best Harmes 11.2), Inside 50 differential (18.8, ahead of next best Oliver/Viney both 12.5) and scoring differential (8.1, ahead of next best 6.7 Viney). Brayshaw was involved in 345 centre square clearances last year. This year he is down to 215. Forgetting the top 5 attendees for a moment, our best centre bounce player by a huge margin is....Jake Melksham. His clearance differential is 31.4, next best is Petracca (16.7), then Jones, and then to Brayshaw and the rest of the regular crew. Of course, Melkham's data is perhaps limited by sample size. Melksham ranks 17th in our side for actual centre bounce attendances, whilst Petracca ranks 10th. The two are our most effective centre bounce players. Brayshaw is one of our best; but he is being played out of position. There are of course weaknesses in all of these statistics - they never tell the full story, there are subjective categorisations applied to 'good/pass mark/bad' and 'best 22' - but I found some of the above quite interesting. For me, what stands out is that the FD thought Tom Mac & Weid were ready to replace Hogan's output, but the warning signs were there if they were to look at the data. We miss his ability to draw the best defender, his presence all around the ground, and his general offensive skillset. No use crying about it now; but given this data is available to the club I find it disappointing they sat on their hands and thought the forward line was sorted even with his departure. Discuss!
  7. His first game at Casey against Werribee he was reasonably out of place - no doubt finding his feet with the team, gamestyle etc. Not to mention Casey played terribly that day other than May. In the following games has looked right at home off a HFF with stints through the middle, sometimes in run-with roles. He's an interesting player - no particularly stand out attributes other than a very good long kick for goal - but seems to just get to the right spots and has a positive impact when near the ball. He's the type that might get on the end of a couple of errant kicks and maybe one on the lead and before you know it, has kicked 3. As a big bodied HFFer capable in midfield he has a chance to replace Vanders if he never makes it back. Doesn't have VDBs pace or power, but has a little more guile and craft. Can do things ANB is not capable of due to size although won't have anywhere near ANBs running capacity. Am interested to see how he does though I will not be surprised to see him look well out of depth. We need to give him a couple of games to see him settle in. No one has mentioned it but I wonder if Bedford is far away from a debut given our forward woes. Is raw but has spunk and has been a consistent goalkicker for Casey (well, as much as Hunt has been for MFC...)
  8. Went along as it was close to home. Ground undergoing significant development but pleasingly there's a lot of seating that isn't up in the stand...just seats built into the terraces. Works well. Sausage was burnt, pie was good. Didn't try the lager on top but regularly buy Coburg lager from the local IGA. Its good stuff. Of the MFC boys: -Lewis. Played mostly well, it's either that the team has been told to play through him or he just gets himself open in the right spots, so got a ton of the pill. Either way, his kicking i50 was a highlight. Had a poor final quarter though, began to get caught in traffic and started lining blokes up as he is prone to do. In quite a few situations went for a headhigh bump instead of tackle and was lucky not to connect. Also squibbed a couple of high balls. A good game, not a promotion earning game, but we know his output can be good on his day. -Wagner. Always looks good at this level where he uses his speed and footskills to create. Looks like he knows his better than this and would love to see him bring this confidence to the 1s. However, his best position is definitely as a centre man and I think he's just too slight to ever be damaging at AFL level. Even in VFL, if he gets tackled he pretty much gets pinned for HTB 80% of the time. -Maynard. Opposite to CWag, holds his ground and frame very strongly in the contest and as a result is a key inside distributor at this level. You can tell he's been trained in a good inside midfield AFL setup. Also went forward and pleasingly took a number of good marks where his size stood out. However, for the most part his kicking and decision making lets him down in either finding a teammate or having a shot. But this isn't new news. Is good depth and good to have around a VFL team because he's a good player at this level. Wouldn't be surprised if Casey sign him upon MFC delisting like old mate mitch white. -Dunkley. I watched his VFL debut against Werribee and missed his day out against Collingwood...fair to say he's gotten used to the level from Werribee when he looked off the pace. For a 19 year old he has good size and the confidence to take on tacklers with a decent little sidestep. Is a long kicking player who fits a part time HF / midfield role quite well. There's something to like here no doubt, he seems to have good game sense and spatial awareness and a good inside/outside mix. Will get a game for the Ds at some point this year. He is a natural VDB replacement at a good age without the sheer pace and power, but a bit more craft. Doesn't have Hannans X factor so can't really replace Mitch in the 1s just yet. Saw he kicked a goal in the stats, must have been Casey's first as I did arrive late. Was pleased to see him blocking intelligently for Wagner at a number of stoppages to try and get Corey loose. -Chandler. Is a busy little player who seems to have a thirst for it and good ball skills, but I worry he's just not quick enough to have the weapons required at the top level at his size. A handy player at this level. May have gotten injured as I didn't see him after half time. -Bedford. With a year or two I think this kid might be playing in the 1s. Has some stuff to learn and isn't as skilled as I would like on the run on the outside, but you can see he knows how and when to use his natural pace, but in an unusual kind burst at the contest kind of way. Wins more than his fair share of contests and 1%s for a kid his size and is a willing tackler. Has some spunk and was very happy with his final qtr goal after getting a bit of stick from the very game Coburg crowd. -Bradtke. Is extremely raw in every sense and is out of most contests until the ball is in the air. Is half as thin as those defending him but reads the ball very well mid flight and takes or almost takes most things that come his way. Got the MFC boys in the stand very excited when he nearly took a mark in the goal square before kicking it over his head for a goal. Popular amongst the group it seems. -Keilty. Again, a very good player at this level and is a real leader in this team. Important all day around the ground with his marking/spoiling and tackling. Had one particularly outstanding smother on the half forward flank when Coburg were coming. Has a lot of attributes and with luck will be a Pedersen style journeyman, though his versatility may cost him like it did with Cam. Not brilliant at anything, but good to very good at lots. -Preuss. Absolutely dominated the ruck all day, a number of handy hitouts as well as a strong marking performance particularly in the 1st half. Despite this, I can see why he isn't getting a game beyond structural issues. A number of times at opposition kick outs he would sprint toward the wrong flank and the opposition would just go the other direction to avoid him. Because he only really has one burst in him he then very slowly works his way back across the ground, letting his Coburg man run off him in the process. The lack of tank is an issue they need to fix, and combine that with a bit of game knowledge. Nonetheless, a big strong player who makes the opposition worried. We are lucky to have him as depth. Whilst I don't think he deserves a call up necessarily, old Oscar Mc for Brisbane of Casey of old took a bunch of contested marks against the saints with Stefan Martin playing ruck 1, so this may be a week for Brayden to come in. -KK. Is very slowly getting back into footy. With time and space you can see he has the class and seems to have good running patterns that result in him receiving a lot of ball in threatening overlap positions. However, constantly misweights his kicks and misses targets. Conditions difficult yes, but a stark contrast to Lewis who hits most targets with a quick hand to ball drop. Isn't particularly great in the contest considering his stock but I he was steak knives for a reason. Has a way to go, I hope he doesn't get an MFC game anytime soon. For his sake, needs to have a good run of consistency at this level and hit the targets he should have the skill to hit. -Spargo. Charlie had a bit of a tough day. We know he's a good tackler for his size but when he gets it, seems to want to put a few steps on defenders with misdirection but invariably gets tackled and HTB. Happened several times. Has a bit too much instruction flowing through his head which is natural for a stint of 2nd year blues. Was called out at 3qtr time as someone who needed to give a bigger effort and he responding by Grassing a sitter in the goal square when Casey needed a goal after a well weighted pass from Maynard. Having an ordinary year. -JKH. Thought he was clearly in the top 3 on ground, was kicking with purpose and is noticeable he has better stamina at this level than most. Halved a number of contests he had no right to and generally ran hard and linked up all day, hit a lot of targets. May get a call up if a mystery injury to a mid/HFF happens. At this stage, I probably prefer him to ANB to be honest. -Jordon. Was very young when we drafted him and they've thrown him to the wolves by playing him in the guts for a number of weeks now. Gives his all against bigger bodies and is tougher than I thought he would be. The flipside is his kicking isn't what it is renowned for. Nonetheless, needs a couple of years down here and may be a player one day. Appears very coachable and compliant. Think that's everyone. The MFC boys were there in good numbers with no noticeable limps (I checked Viney as he pulled up in the last few minutes on Saturday). Frost very generous with his time to a number of passer-bys. Jetta part of defensive huddles. Baker seems in with the cool group of Oliver/harmes/petracca ....can only be mostly good for him to feel apart of that midfield. Lever there I think for the dual purpose of seeing the team and watching I think his brother Tyson no.7 for Coburg? Tyson seemed popular win the local Coburg supporters but wasn't overly impressive as an undersized left footed key back I thought.
  9. fr_ap


    In the corresponding game last year,if I recall correctly watts kicked 4, petracca kicked 3 or 4, Garlett 3 and hannan 2. Only one of those guys is playing today. Concerned about our ability to kick a big enough score today
  10. This place is bizarre. We have one semi encouraging win against one of the favourites for the bottom 4 and all of a sudden 9/10 on here tip a huge win. The hawks are a serious step up in on field and in box quality and form wise, have had probably the best start to the season (maybe other than port). I'm hopeful we can win but think it will be close. Worried about their speed off the wing (Smith impey) and in the forward line (breust puopolo) whilst our smaller defenders seem in poor form (no hunt hurts in this one). Think they will beat us by 3 goals.
  11. I have been saying for some time (not on here necessarily) that if we are on a premiership journey, this will be 'the year we had to have', ala Richmond 2016 or St Kilda 2017. Not saying St Kilda will win the flag this year but I expect them to be in the 6. Save for inaccurate kicking they would have been in the 8 last year, I have no idea why the media has joined our wagon instead of theirs. The football public and media has extremely short memories. As to why this won't be our year (I predict a finish of 11th-13th) I can't entirely put my finger on it. Too much expectation, not enough proven. I think so long as our weapons and best players week in week out have less than 100 or 50 games (Trac, Gawn, Oliver, Hogan), its simply not going to happen. Definitely not in a finals series if we do indeed get there. These players will remain inconsistent and can't be relied upon to win games. I expect Hunt to regress significantly, Lever to have a very difficult year, Hannan and Jeffy to regress, ANB to regress,as well as a gradual decline in the value of Vince and Lewis and to a lesser extent Hibberd who after a year off will struggle physically with the cumulative effect of 2 seasons plus the pre season. I see continued improvement from Harmes, Oscar, Brayshaw, Frost and not particularly many others. Viney if he can get on the park. Add Goodwins second year blues and continued emotional education on how to handle his players, plus improvement across a number of other teams like Freo, perhaps Port,Hawthorn, Essendon and St Kilda as mentioned and I see a 7-8 win season as most likely. Tom McDonald will also leave at the end of the year as a FA. Despite the above, I think next year will more likely be the one we make a leap, though the key players I mentioned will still be too inexperienced. We are told continually progress is not linear yet that is exactly what we are expecting - linear growth. Some will say this is very negative and I hope I'm wrong on all fronts except the players improving. Just the way I see it.
  12. You must be some negotiator mate - anyone who disagrees with you is told to sit down and shut up. Nice. You're clearly running with your own narrative on this, aligning it with previous failures of the club, and I doubt I could convince you of anything otherwise, so good luck finding peace with the decision. I know I have very quickly. We have put Jack on the table and to those who have asked why, been upfront that for a senior player of his experience, his inconsistency is unacceptable. How this equates to dragging him through the mud or 'dismissing' him, I have no idea. And yes, in the recent past we have kept inconsistent senior players, and have not used their inconsistency as a catalyst or excuse to trade. That recent past has also been extremely unsuccessful. I don't think that's a coincidence so I for one am pleased the club is taking a harsher stance. But hey, my opinion isnt as valid as yours is it?
  13. I don't post here very often but this appalling post has motivated me to do so. I don't think any of us here know the full extent of this story so for you to come out and attack Mahoney's and Goodwin's character in defence of Watts, using his apparent 'loyalty' as an excuse - is really poor. He has been a well paid employee over this time and appears to be (see how I don't portray this as fact?) the type of character who was happy to go along for the ride, or do the easy thing. You have no idea if Jack has always had the best interests of the MFC at heart. Zero idea. If he did, he certainly had a strange way of showing it by in my view picking and choosing when to perform. The one thing we have been told is that after 9 years and 150 games, his inconsistency cannot be tolerated any longer. Given we failed as a club this year due to inconsistency (was not rd23's fault, not Adelaide's fault, but the losses to NM x2,freo,haw that stood between us and top 4 - let alone finals), i think that whether they are right or wrong on Jack it is clear they are trying to address why we came up short. That is their role and they should not be attacked for it or have their motives questioned. Personally, I had held some hope he would stay and turn it around, but his little video he has released eroded that hope and replaced it with anger. Lovely for him to respond to a young concerned supporter yes, but to use that as a chance to overlay a swipe at the club and go on to essentially pisstake the club (my interpretation, others may differ) left me furious. How many other 26/27 year old 150 game players would release that when moving clubs? Compare to Jarman Impey's message to PA supporters - classy and gracious. Jack's approach to me is childish and immature. Perhaps that is why he is so well loved, perhaps it is also why he's always been inconsistent. There have been a few other indicators of this over the journey. Do keep in mind Paul Roos was in a highly fortuitous position during his tenure. He was to be judged only a little on wins, moreso observed cultural change. He needed to build mateship and unity - I have little doubt Jack is top notch in these areas. We are through that stage and now need to break the ceiling. Evidently the FD think Jack, who appears to have developed so poorly and slowly on field and arguably (per video) off it, is not the best exponent of the breakthrough year. Whether we make top 4 next year will have nothing to do with Jack, and him thriving elsewhere will not mean this was a bad decision.
  14. May be nothing, but flying home at 930 last night and Hunt was on the flight. Looked to have quite the swollen right cheek/jaw area. Not a lot of bruising but certainly looked odd. Who knows, could have been chewing gum but the way he flew alone sunday night made me wonder if he spent Saturday night in hospital with a cheekbone injury. Ben Brown was also on the flight sitting with the common folk. Dresses like a bum! Good player though.
  15. What are those outcomes out of interest? Its sunday and I'm feeling lazy.
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