Could Bate be the answer for CHF

[Nicho 1]

With Brad Miller playing good footy at CHF every third week, we need a more conistent return from the most important position on the field week in and week out.

Could the answer be Matthew Bate. Master was argualbly our best player last week against Port at the MCG and its east to forget his 192cm.

I don't believe Dunn is bigger enough yet after spending the same time in the system as Batey and bluey has showed us alot more.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

I'v ehad this discussion with a number of people. The whole CHF debate, coupled with the Neitz and Robbo replacements debate will be something we'll be pondering for AT LEAST the next 5 years, and longer if we're not lucky in recruitment, development and retention of talented players. My feeling is we'll probably have to trade for an established ruckman and an established FF in the years to come...

But for now, Miller is a hard-working forward, that could, if he came into his own, one day be in the mould of an Ian Perrie AT BEST. I don't mind him THAT much, he works hard, presents, has a great attitude and work ethic off the field and is as hard as you want. But is he the future answer? In my book, probably not. I reckon we'll be looking to groom the complete set behind him... ie a FF, CHF, 3rd forward and backup.

- Dunn is young, and has a few problems. He's quick, and has a great sense of bring the ball to the deck, where he's at his best. But contested marking is a problem. Or at least it seems it is, as he doesn't really attempt to mark when within 2 metres of an opponent. Other than this, he seems ok.

- Bate is useful elsewhere. One of his weapons is his running capacity. I LOVE him on the wing, or running off HBF, but I understand at his height we may be selling ourselves short. As a CHF he has MILES to go before he matches it with the big boys, and to be honest, I don't think he'll ever be a premier CHF... In my mind he's more of a Goodes type. But time will tell. ND loves his flexibility, and when a new coach takes over in the next couple of years, they'll enjoy it too.

- PJ shows some promise, but again, he's not the answer as a stay at home forward. If he played there, sure, he might kick a bag of six and a few bags of four. But he's not going to monster the competition.

- Garland has shown me plenty. Big engine, beautiful kick, likes to run long distances. But he's VERY young. I see him as a more damaging Nick Davis... More damaging in the sense he could be a heavy scorer, but hasn't got Nick's kick. What I want to see from him before I start calling for his promotion into the starting 22 is defensive work. We all know Robbo has the skill to monster teams on a regular enough basis to let him play his own game. If Garland is going to be third tall, and I believe he will be, he's going to need more than a good lead, mark and kick. These days you have to have another ace up your sleeve.

- In my book, and you'll all laugh, Newton has the skill set, body and brain to play as a GENUINE CHF. I've seen him play off flanks, wings and other places at Sandy, and watching him play either out of the square or as a CHF is remarkable. He's like a different player. Now he has other problems, that's clear, but unlike his peers, talent, body, hardness and all the things his mates have are NOT the problem. Put Miller's heart in Newtons body you'd have a sensational future CHF. But then he would have gone top 10 in the draft, so....

The answer to the question is this. There IS no replacement for Neitz and Robbo. Neitz may not be a unique player, but there are few if any around at the moment that are as tough, resilient, hard-working, inspiring and trustworthy... He's the best player over the journey that we've had at the club since Flower, just about. So let's not think we're going to see another strong forward QUITE as good as him. But then why do we have to have one? Again, with Robbo, we can hardly expect a player to be as strong in the air or on his chest as Robbo. But again, why do we need that?

The day will come where we may find ourselves with more of a Fevola or Lloyd type of forward. A guy who leads and marks and thinks his way through a game, winning most of his one-on-ones, and kicking more truly than the skipper. Neitz just does the percentage thing. Crash into 3 guys, try to deck them all, and if you can still stand, get the pill and drill it. If not, Flash is there to mop up, and you've likely killed his direct opponent anyway. Maybe when Robbo retires we may find ourselves with Dunn and Juice playing together out of the square? Believe me Juice can fly almost as well as Robbo, but his hands are better, he's more accountable, FAR better below his knees, and LOVES the mongrel involved in pissing off an opponent.

So in short, I reckon we've been spoilt with Neita and Robbo, but when the day comes that we usher in a new attack, we will love them too, and for different reasons. Will they be as good, or better? In my book, at this stage, No. But then we're YEARS away from watching these young guys come into their peak years. One thing's for sure. If we want an A-Grade forward line we've only done half the job as yet. Wait and see what CAC has up his sleeve in the next 3 years. THEN we'll have a better idea.

[QueenC 74]

Great post Dan :D ......

[Nasher 33,047]

I think I may have missed a pertinent point here DD but are you saying that of the plethora of young forwards we've got, not a single one of them are suitable to play the "stay at home" FF role in the future?

Our options are Miller, Dunn, Newton, Garland, Bate, P.Johnson. Of those, we can rule out the following:

- Miller. His biggest strength is his leading and running up the ground. It need not be as far up the ground as it currently is, but either way you'd be wasting his best asset if you plonked him in front of goal. He's also not "goal aware" enough, doesn't like taking set shots and (now I'm just guessing) probably wouldn't kick anywhere near as many goals as Neitz does in general play, just because he hasn't shown any propensity to doing it before.

- P.Johnson. He's the only one of our "ruckman" who looks like he might actually be able to get the ball in general play. His attributes mean his best use would be in the ruck (if he can somehow learn how to tap), or as a stop-gap in the backline. Personally I don't believe he has all that much of a future at the club at all, let alone as our #1 forward.

What are Neitz's attributes that makes him such a good forward?

1. He is built like a brick outhouse, and in general play knows how to use his body to his advantage by clearing the deck of all opposition midgets

2. When on song he can outmark any backman in the competition

3. When on song his set shots score a goal the majority of the time

4. His defensive side is sound in that he always chases and applies defensive pressure without exception

5. He can get the ball off the ground in general play and score

Of our remaining options (Dunn, Newton, Garland, Bate), none meet criterion 3 at this point, but all appear to be good enough set shots at this point in their career that improving to Neitz' level should not be beyond them.

Criterion 1 is the biggest worry I have about Dunn. He is as skinny and weedy as they come. He's still young and has plenty of time to fill out, but I doubt he'll be able to become rock solid like Neita. I've not seen enough of Garland or Newton to comment on their body shape (can someone fill in the gaps here?). Bate in this regard definitely has the right body shape. He's quite tall but already he's got that type of strong, heavy body that Neitz has. He's still under 21, as he reaches his peak he is only going to get stronger. In years to come he could well develop in to being the strongest bloke we have in the team. How many teams play their strongest player on the HFF?

Criterion 2 is strongly related to Criterion 1 and I think last week Bate demonstrated that he's got hands like vices, which will only get better. At the moment he would have to be leading the stakes in this regard. Again I think Dunn is a worry here due to his build.

Criterion 4 can be taught.

In short I personally believe that Bate could well be the answer for FF in the future. I believe he's got all the attributes and as his body develops, he'll prove that he's got everything it takes. I also believe that you've labelled Garland as a tall flanker a tad early. He's still a kid, his body has a royal crapload of developing left to do. As I said earlier, I've not seen a great deal of him, but he didn't appear to me to be a weed like Dunn. Who's to say he won't fill out as necessary?

[Demon Head 250]

In my book, and you'll all laugh, Newton has the skill set, body and brain to play as a GENUINE CHF. I've seen him play off flanks, wings and other places at Sandy, and watching him play either out of the square or as a CHF is remarkable. He's like a different player. Now he has other problems, that's clear, but unlike his peers, talent, body, hardness and all the things his mates have are NOT the problem. Put Miller's heart in Newtons body you'd have a sensational future CHF. But then he would have gone top 10 in the draft, so....

If, as you allege Newton hasn't got a ticker, why was he drafted in the first place and why was his contract renewed at the beginning of this year?

3. When on song his set shots score a goal the majority of the time

Of our remaining options (Dunn, Newton, Garland, Bate), none meet criterion 3 at this point, but all appear to be good enough set shots at this point in their career that improving to Neitz' level should not be beyond them.

Newton's set shots are one of his strengths.

[Bingo 235]

After seeing Bates performance last week, does anyone think that he could be a forward like Pavlich?

Or do you think that with his running ability he would be more like Tarrant?

[tooly 0]

Lets hope more like Pavlich.

[Adzman 2,085]

Love your work Dan.

Newton or Dunn at CHF for me.

Garland was selected IMO to be the new FF in 2-3 years time.

Miller to the....BACKLINE (oh dear, i have gone and said it again!)

[Jarka 767]

There is one alternative for CHF and that's Matt Kruezer

[jacey 333]

Put Miller's heart in Newtons body you'd have a sensational future CHF. But then he would have gone top 10 in the draft, so....

That's the problem.

We have playas with one set of skills but are inadequate in others.

How many times have we heard:

If Godfrey had Johnstone's footskills, he'll be a supastar.

If Yze had Brown's heart, he'll be a supastar.

If Newton had Miller's mindset, he'll be a supastar.

If Paul Johnson had Jamar's ruckwork, he'll be supastar. etc etc etc etc

We don't have 2 many out and out champions. We do however have plenty of playas who have portions of a what a champion would be like.

Any way, i've always hoped for Bate 2 turn into a Pavlich but i'm more then happy for him to play a Ryan O'Keefe style of game. Hard running HF.

[drdrake 3,035]

I've posted several times Bate should play a similar role to Sydney's Ryan O'Keefe a hard running CHF HFF tat pushes forward and runs deep into attack. Playing like a midfielder but with a more foward idset to link the defense to the forwards and kick a few goals.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Great post Dan :D ......

Thanks Q.

I think I may have missed a pertinent point here DD but are you saying that of the plethora of young forwards we've got, not a single one of them are suitable to play the "stay at home" FF role in the future?

Yes, pretty much. Look, for all we know these players could develop vastly different games in 3-5 years, ESPECIALLY under a different coach or specialist forwardline assistant coach. BUT if they're not given the guidance NOW they'll stall, and eventually you'll notice their growth will be stunted. I think my point was that of our young up-and-comers, not ONE has anywhere near the attributes or ability Neita showed at the same age. When Neitz was approaching 21, he was already crashing and bashing, as well as kicking beautifully and playing well below his knees.

What are Neitz's attributes that makes him such a good forward?

1. He is built like a brick outhouse, and in general play knows how to use his body to his advantage by clearing the deck of all opposition midgets

2. When on song he can outmark any backman in the competition

3. When on song his set shots score a goal the majority of the time

4. His defensive side is sound in that he always chases and applies defensive pressure without exception

5. He can get the ball off the ground in general play and score

Criterion 1 - Dunn's weight is a problem at the moment, but it will be overcome soon. But it's the second part of criterion 1 I have a problem with. He can mark, and marks well on the lead. But what made Neita a great player at the same age was the knowledge and ability to use what weight he had. Dunn isn't even aware of that yet. Now I'm not calling him soft. I don't think he is. But I AM saying he doesn't have a love of the contest that many do. HOPEFULLY he'll bring this into his game, but as yet, I've not seen enough evidence to think he's as tough as a Neitz replacement would need to be. Newton doesn't have the body yet, but LOVES the crash and bash. LOVES it, particularly though the air. Garland is very young, and more of a lean dasher. I see him roaming outside the fifty more, maybe playing more as a Tarrant. It's FAR too early to glean too much from him. Bate is weird. He can handle so much physical stuff when in the packs and on the ground. But when going for a mark, especially when opposition is on his hammer, he loses just a touch of confidence. But yes, there's no doubt he has the physical attributes. And you make a fine point about playing your strongest player where he is needed.

Criterion 2 - Here's where we might disagree a bit. Dunn, yes. I like him as a player, but needs to mark overhead under pressure. I DO love how he causes spillages to advantage, but that's not enough to play him in a key position. Bate CAN mark. I've been drilling this all year and he proved me right last week. But to be fair, that was one week out of 6 where his opponent wasn't fast enough to pressure him, and he was playing 1 out all day. Place him closer to the square, and we ALL saw what happened there. He was lost. Garland can mark beautifully, and is smart and an opportunist. Once again, probably a bit small just yet, and FAR too young to go screaming into a spoiling Glenn Archer. If you want to see hands like a vice, wait until you see Juice. But where he has Bate beaten is in the air and in packs. picture the image of Bate leading from the square into a pack of 3, about30-40 metres from goal. Or the "hot spot" as they say. Bate may as well be Davey in the regard. He doesn't jump. Newton not only would be a strong chance to mark with a run-up and some space, but he would DEFINITELY cause a spillage and follow it up.

Criterion 3 - Garland is on ok kick at goal. Not mouth-watering though, and not Neitz. Dunn is a ripping shot at goal I reckon. Beautiful action both on the run and even more as a set shot. Juice is a beautiful kick of the footy. Bate is simply incredible on the run from outside fifty. But his set shots don't fill me with confidence. Over the journey I think we'll find his accuracy may be a sore point. It's this and his pack marks that are his biggest (and just about ONLY) deficiencies.

Criterion 4 - It can, but we're just starting to count the things we need to teach them now. Neita was a goer from before he was recruited.

Criterion 5 - Dunn is the standout here. Bate is good too, but better when not getting smashed by a flooded backline all gunning for him. I don't believe his sideways movement is sharp enough to evade as Neitz does. Haven't seen too much of Garland below his knees. Juice may not be in Dunn's class on the deck, but he goes alright, and is VERY wily. When he's on, he has enough 2nd and 3rd efforts to more than do his job.

You say Bate is your preffered option. I think he can certainly play there, but there's a differenc between playing a flexible player like that for 120 minutes week in week out and playing him there as a resting forward. I don't see Bate as an 60-goal a year forward, put it that way. We'd be robbing Peter to pay Paul. I hope you go along to see Juice one of these days. I really can't stress enough how much he looks like a genuine KPP in the forward line who is EQUALLY at home as a CHF or FF. Even playin second fiddle to Sautner, who knows what he's doing. There's no doubt in my mind that if you compare JUST the physical and statistical leanings of these players that Newton is the clear leader. But that doesn't mean he'll be a career forward in the AFL (none of them are assured of that yet) and it doesn't mean Juice has the mindset just yet. It's clear the footy department think there's SOMETHING wrong. What I'm saying is that it has nothing to do with skill, or knowledge. And on Garland, I think you're right. I stood next to him at Sandy and he IS quite slight. I'm 6'1" and while he IS taller, I didn't feel he was a big guy. In fact I thought he was one of the pimply teenagers running around (he wasn't playing). His strength is not yet his physicality, it's his skill and nous. But yes, VERY early days. I admit I'm very unsure when it comes to Colin.

If, as you allege Newton hasn't got a ticker, why was he drafted in the first place and why was his contract renewed at the beginning of this year?

Allege is the word. I just said if you put Miller's heart in him etc etc. For the record, Juice HAS got a ticker, but from what I've seen and heard, it waxes and wanes from week to week and within a match. Miller may not be gifted, but he goes full tilt 100% of the time. That's not something people have ever said about Juice. I will say this though. The kid does know HOW to try. Someone must have given him a spray or something at training the week before I keep turning up, because he gets in and under like a midfielder when I'm there.

And to answer your two questions. Had Juice turned up in a tutu he would have been drafted, such is his talent. As CAC has said, of the 3 drafted in his year, he had the most potential upside. Needs work, but he's overloaded with ability. I don't know why his contract was renewed, perhaps it has something to do with his only having had 2 years in the system, his being injured, the fact he's bottom age, the fact he'd kicked big bags (albeit at the Sandy 2s), our desperation for KP forwards. Had we had a full compliment of young forwards, maybe he might have been squeezed out. Who knows? My feeling is they see what he has and won't let him go until they can PROVE he hasn't got what it takes at AFL level. I'm confident he'll see another year. And the way he's going, if he's delisted, someone else will snaffle him.

After seeing Bates performance last week, does anyone think that he could be a forward like Pavlich?

Or do you think that with his running ability he would be more like Tarrant?

I wouldn't say either. But I guess more of a Tarrant than a Pavlich. Bate has nowhere near Pavlich's marking ability (but then, who does?)

There is one alternative for CHF and that's Matt Kruezer

That's the problem.

We have playas with one set of skills but are inadequate in others.

So true. I just hope their deficiencies can be built upon, a la Green.

I've posted several times Bate should play a similar role to Sydney's Ryan O'Keefe a hard running CHF HFF tat pushes forward and runs deep into attack. Playing like a midfielder but with a more foward idset to link the defense to the forwards and kick a few goals.

I tell you what, that's not half bad. I don't know about Bate's ability to kick to a tight lead, but yes. And I think he more or less played that role against Port didn't he?

Sorry about the long post. Nasher, I blame you. :D

[Nasher 33,047]

Sorry about the long post. Nasher, I blame you. :D

First class thesis as always DD. Fair points on everything you said.

Just on your point about Sandy, I wish I could go down and watch them play. If I lived in Melbourne I'd be at TBO every weekend. As it is I see Sandy play once a year, when they're in Hobart (which they won't be at all this year).

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

I see. No, fair enough. Demonland should really organise more nights like that one in round 22 last year where we had our worst loss for the season!!! I can't help but feel if the little punks who were smashed hadn't gotten in, and we had actually played well it may have become an annual AAMI stadium match to view at the Leighoak. If we KNEW it was happening, then you could come up for the day, and meet all and sundry. It actually was a pretty good turnout in the end. And with a bit of luck, you could wander down to Sandy the next arvo. It would be just the icing on the cake. TBO really is a sensational place to watch footy. Wonderful atmosphere.