The Oracle's preview v Dockers

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THE EDGE OF SLEDGE by The Oracle

Who would have thought when the Demons and the Dockers met in the AFL second semi final at Subiaco last early spring that both clubs would be struggling at 0-3 when they were next due to meet each other on the football field?

Who would have thought that Fremantle would come in to their Round 4 with so many distractions and a week of controversy over the sledging of a player behind them?

Who would have thought the AFL Tribunal would have gone blind and insane at the same time and turned justice AFL style into such a mockery?

No one.

Not even me and I'm the only person on this side of the Nullarbor Plain who possesses one slightly damaged and one barely operative crystal ball, at least a dozen packs of tarot cards and a mint condition volume of Nostradamus!

Nor could I believe it when I read that the Demons were relying on Fremantle's week of tension packed high drama and media scrutiny to get them up against those nice guys from the West. That is exactly what Demon coach Neale Daniher is apparently hanging his hat on according to all reports I'm reading. Speaking to melbournefc.com.au, the coach admitted "he hopes Fremantle have been distracted by the Des Headland sledging saga coming into their AFL clash at the MCG on Sunday."

After all, in contrast to the Dockers' torrid week over the Headland-Adam Selwood controversy and its tribunal sequel, Melbourne has had no distractions whatever, has it?

"What's happened at the tribunal hasn't been the focus of what we're about this week.

"It's about trying to get our game up."

Right, but Neale must have been ignoring the constant sledging that his own club has been getting over the past few weeks from the football world and in particular from fans of his own team. Certainly, the Demons are ravaged by injury but their selection table tactics and on ground strategies have puzzled all and sundry – as has the loss of form of what remains of its core of better players and team leaders.

The Demons have their backs to the wall this week and they do have Byron Pickett back after a stint with the weight watchers. But, if you pull down the façade of the media spin and the talk back hoo ha, the fact remains that the week's events overall have had one very positive effect on the Dockers’ campaign to win their first game of the season. They delivered two valuable players back from possible suspension and that's what mattered most to them in the first place as far as I'm concerned.

Tough man Josh Carr is available to punch the lights out of some more opponents if that's what he wants to do and Headland is free to display that tattoo of his gorgeous six-year-old daughter to all and sundry as he runs around the great oval tomorrow. In terms of what happens out there on the football field, the distractions have therefore all been worthwhile.

On the other hand Melbourne remains bereft of its heart and soul and I doubt whether the goody two shoes at the club, would try to get under the opponents' skins to get an edge on them anyway.

They're just too busy trying to "get their games up", whatever that means.

THE GAME: Melbourne v. Fremantle at the MCG - 22 April 2007 at 2.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Melbourne 10 wins Fremantle 10 wins

At the G: Melbourne 4 wins Fremantle 3 wins

Since 2000: Melbourne 5 wins Fremantle 6 wins

The Coaches: Daniher 2 wins Connolly 6 wins

MEDIA:

TV Channel 7 (delayed telecast commencing at 3.00pm)

RADIO: 3AW MMM

THE BETTING: Melbourne to win $2.70 Fremantle to win $1.43

LAST TIME THEY MET: Fremantle 14.18.102 defeated Melbourne 11.8.74 at Subiaco Second Semi Final, 2006.

Melbourne started well enough on a balmy night in Perth but wilted under the pressure and the humidity to a dominant Docker combination led by giant ruckman Aaron Sandilands and a winning midfield headed by Peter Bell and Josh Carr. Heath Black was the icing on the cake for Freo while for the Demons, Brad Miller returned to form after an awful season but was virtually a lone hand in a tired forward line.

THE TEAMS:

MELBOURNE:

Backs: Clint Bizzell Nathan Carroll Matthew Whelan

Half backs: Daniel Ward Paul Wheatley Daniel Bell

Centreline: Brent Moloney James McDonald Brad Green

Half forwards: Cameron Bruce Brad Miller Byron Pickett

Forwards: Simon Godfrey Mark Jamar Aaron Davey

Followers: Jeff White Nathan Jones Travis Johnstone

Interchange: Nathan Brown Lynden Dunn Paul Johnson Adem Yze

Emergencies: Matthew Bate Ricky Petterd Colin Syvlia

In: Clint Bizzell Lynden Dunn Byron Pickett

Out: Matthew Bate Ben Holland Ryan Ferguson

FREMANTLE

Backs: Shane Parker Luke McPharlin Roger Hayden

Halfbacks: David Mundy Antoni Grover Steven Dodd

Centreline: Shaun McManus Paul Hasleby Heath Black

Half forwards: Des Headland Matthew Pavlich Ryan Crowley

Forwards: Dean Solomon Chris Tarrant Peter Bell

Followers: Aaron Sandilands Matthew Carr Josh Carr

Interchange: Troy Cook Daniel Gilmore James Walker Luke Webster

Emergencies: Adam Campbell Paul Duffield Robert Warnock

In Heath Black Luke Webster

Out: Justin Longmuir (knee) Andrew Browne (hamstring)

THE GAME

I swear that it was only a month ago that I read at least one pre season "expert prediction" that Melbourne and Fremantle would be playing off for this year's AFL premiership. How has it happened that two teams, so highly fancied and well feted, could find themselves at a point where they are staring down the barrel of a 0-4 start to the season – almost the point of no return for the loser?

The Dockers have at least had their opportunities. They were in with a chance to win each of the two opening games and faltered at the end and then they gave the reigning premiers a run for their money before the squeeze was put on in the final quarter and a bit last week. Besides, they had a few players running around Subiaco with other things on their mind.

We know the score with Melbourne; the injuries to key players David Neitz, Russell Robertson, Brock McLean and Jared Rivers haven't helped but it's been the appalling form of the players who took the field against St. Kilda, Hawthorn and Geelong that has Demon fans in despair and left with the weekly ritual of hoping that the selectors could pluck something out a hat to find the right mix.

The key for the Demons is that they need the players who have been down and who are capable of so much better to regain their confidence, poise and form. We have seen nothing from Aaron Davey, Travis Johnstone and Adem Yze so far this season. Perhaps the return of Byron Pickett as the protector is just what is needed. Or perhaps we're just all clutching at straws and the loss of so many first pick players is simply all too much?

One exercise I tried this week was to work out where Melbourne might find the necessary drive to overcome the Dockers. I came up with very little but there is one area where Fremantle, which is also winless and therefore will approach the game with some trepidation, might falter. That single answer is the home ground advantage that should be strongly on the side of the Demons this week. The Dockers lost to the Bombers in Melbourne in Round 1 and let's not forget how they went when the teams last met at the MCG. Melbourne demolished them in round 7 last year to the tune of 59 points. Against that is the fact that the Demons are sitting at 0-3 at this venure at this stage of proceedings.

There are other things for Melbourne to be worried about. Firstly, there's the 16cm differential in height between Freo's ruckman Aaron Sandilands and Melbourne's Jeff White. The former all Australian Demon ruckman was positively embarrassed at their two meetings last year at Subiaco when the Docker giant killed him in the ruck and around the ground. It was from this very position that the Docker domination found its expression and continued through the midfield and into its attack.

The attack is where the Dockers are likely to taste the icing on the cake again this time around. Matthew Pavlich was relatively quiet last week but that was against an All-Australian full back in Darren Glass. Who does Melbourne pit against him? And even if Nathan Carroll or someone else proves up to the task, who then stops Chris Tarrant and what's to be done to quell Luke McPharlin if Chris Connolly sends him up forward as he did a couple of years ago?

And I haven't started thinking about where Melbourne's goals are going to come from. Last week, the Dees could only manage eight goals in a game against a Cats when the coach, by his own admission, stated that the team spent the first half in attacking mode. If they try to shut the game down, will a single figure goal tally be enough to win the four points?

I doubt it and I'm therefore tipping Fremantle by 35 points. Following that, we will see another week of sledging from frustrated and irate Demon fans.