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2019 Ladder Predictions

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58 minutes ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

I'm not thinking too much about where I think we and everyone else will finish at this point (might as well throw darts at a board or play pin the tail on the donkey to some extent).  But I do know where I want us to finish and that is simply top 4 as a starting point.  In all my years as a supporter (post 86), I don't recall us finishing above the equivalent of 4th (i.e. with a garenteed double chance and potential week off prior to the prelim).

I don't think it matters so much to finish 1st or 2nd, unless it ment finishing below that meant an interstate trip first week of finals.

We haven't finished above fifth ... let alone above fourth.

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28 minutes ago, bingers said:

We haven't finished above fifth ... let alone above fourth.

I could have been wrong.  Demon Wiki actually has us finishing 3rd at the end of 2000 home and away (an abortion for the MFC post 64).  I can also find a few 4th place finishes between 1989 and 1991, but from recollection they were also the days of top 5/6 and so finishing 4th was of no real advantage.

Has been the story of the MFC in my lifetime.  Good sides, but could never put together an entire season to set our selves up properly for a genuine crack at a flag.  This is the one thing  I'm hoping Goodwin does better at.

Edited by Rodney (Balls) Grinter
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1 hour ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

I think this article is interesting in the present context.

AFL fixture 2019: How weighted fixture helped Collingwood, North Melbourne in 2018 and who it will impact most in 2019

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-fixture-2019-how-weighted-fixture-helped-collingwood-north-melbourne-in-2018-and-who-it-will-impact-most-in-2019/news-story/d61d171a77108a94459b7f31d3efb9f8

 

Honestly though, I think the draw is only important to the weaker teams.  If we are a good side, then we should relish the opportunity to play top teams, because we give our selves a better than even chance of beating them.  I think it is also a double edge sword in that respect, in so far as playing other top sides gives you an opportunity to deny them a win and push them down the ladder.  I don't think a tough draw did Richmond any disservice this season.  Biggest thing to be gained with an easy draw is having a bit more tolerance in the case of form slumps and injuries etc.

The biggest thing about an easy draw is you win 2 more games and finish top 4! Collingwood & Hawthorn in 2018.

North were only in final contention due to easier draw.

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Expectations are high here. Not saying they are wrong but it's scary to think how the fan base will react if things don't go to plan. We need consistency and stability. I'll be happy with a similar H&A result to this year, in what is a highly competitive league.

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45 minutes ago, D4Life said:

The biggest thing about an easy draw is you win 2 more games and finish top 4! Collingwood & Hawthorn in 2018.

North were only in final contention due to easier draw.

Our draw was more or less just as easy.

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50 minutes ago, WAClark said:

Expectations are high here. Not saying they are wrong but it's scary to think how the fan base will react if things don't go to plan. We need consistency and stability. I'll be happy with a similar H&A result to this year, in what is a highly competitive league.

Agreed.  Many comentators and media have us as finishing 1st/grand finalists or top 4 as the base 'expectation'.  I personally the most optermistic predictions are somewhat unrealistic to have as an expectation.

Was a point that PJ made pretty well in his exclusive Demonland interview that there could be speed bumps.  Geelong and GWS were a few of the examples he put up.

Edited by Rodney (Balls) Grinter
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59 minutes ago, D4Life said:

The biggest thing about an easy draw is you win 2 more games and finish top 4! Collingwood & Hawthorn in 2018.

North were only in final contention due to easier draw.

Good teams don't make excuses and/or rely on the draw to finish in a good position.  I think it can artificially help poorer ones, but doesn't make much difference to good teams that put together a dominant season overall.  Look at Richmond and to a certain extent West Coast.

It could influence the make up of the rest of the final 8 and lower part of the ladder to a certain extent though and that's more I think was more my puropse in posting it.

If we have the sort of quality team we think we have, do ok with injuries and manage the team well thoughout the year, then the mindset shold be that we make our own destiny and let the rest sort it's self around us.  I'm probably just parroting Goodwin here, but I think it's the right attitude.  Draw should be meaningless to us.  Easier said than done, because I bet that Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood and perhaps one or two other teams would probably also think they are in this position.

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1 hour ago, D4Life said:

The biggest thing about an easy draw is you win 2 more games and finish top 4! Collingwood & Hawthorn in 2018.

North were only in final contention due to easier draw.

Also worth noting that Hawthorn lost to the Lyons twice and North, that kind of offsets the advantage of their weaker draw.  The other key factor is that they got over St Kilda and Sydney by a few goals or less in the run home, where we lost to those same sides by similar margins.  The respective results Vs Geelong are probably part of the same story.  It's a game of inches sometimes and that's probably where our lack of experience and in ability to close out the close games probably hurt us get that top 4 spot.

Edited by Rodney (Balls) Grinter

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1 hour ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Also worth noting that Hawthorn lost to the Lyons twice and North, that kind of offsets the advantage of their weaker draw.  The other key factor is that they got over St Kilda and Sydney by a few goals or less in the run home, where we lost to those same sides by similar margins.  The respective results Vs Geelong are probably part of the same story.  It's a game of inches sometimes and that's probably where our lack of experience and in ability to close out the close games probably hurt us get that top 4 spot.

Agree the best teams just make it happen. Collingwood got to 3rd with only one win over a finals team, being us unfortunately. Then played a strong finals month.

The Demons dropped 4-5 games by under 10 pts, Cats 2&3, Saints 2, Port 10(robbed) and Swans? We win 2or 3 of those and top four  spot was ours!

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Isn’t it wonderful that we can legitimately put Melbourne in a top 4 spot of a ladder prediction And not in an ironic/humorous/yeah sure sort of way. We are contenders 

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I am surprised by how many people have port in the top 8 next year. I am predicting a disastrous season for them. They placed ninth this year and just lost polec and wingard. 

North is the other surprising team many have named in the 8. They won't get the free ride in the draw they got this year and I just don't see their list as that good. Not as sure about this as port but they just don't look like contenders to me. 

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2 hours ago, FlashInThePan said:

I am surprised by how many people have port in the top 8 next year. I am predicting a disastrous season for them. They placed ninth this year and just lost polec and wingard. 

North is the other surprising team many have named in the 8. They won't get the free ride in the draw they got this year and I just don't see their list as that good. Not as sure about this as port but they just don't look like contenders to me. 

Agree re Port. I had them 12th and think they are likely to be out of the 8 for awhile. 

Get where you're coming from with Hawthorn also. I think they've topped up just enough for one more finals run (hence my prediction for 8th). But with retirements likely to come for Roughead, Burgoyne, Birchall, Puopolo, Frawley, Stratton & McEvoy by the end of 2020, I think a significant cliff is coming fast for Hawthorn!

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On 10/19/2018 at 10:03 AM, ManDee said:

So you are saying KK is not faster than Tyson? Or May is not faster than OMac /Lewis. Not sure of Preus over King/ Filipovic/Pederson. I think we have added speed and quality but lost a terrific forward (but I think we have a few)

Every player on every list in the AFL is faster than Lewis

And has better hair

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Now the draw is out time for ladder predictions

Adelaide (soft draw)

Melbourne (6/6/6 and learnt to pkay the G)

GWS (soft draw)

WC (Sheed has stepped up to solve their cp weakness)

Richmond (Drop back because still weak around the contest 6/6/6 will affect them)

Collingwood (Tough draw, backing Melbourne but could swap with 2nd if they have our measure)

North (Ok draw and will improve)

Essendon (May just scrape in)

Hawthorn (Too old)

Brisbane (Big improvers)

Sydney (Drop back some more)

Dogs (Soft draw)

Geelong (Tough first 12 weeks. Season over by the bye)

Fremantle (Improve over last year)

Port (Cooked)

St Kilda

Carlton

GC

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10th

back to yo yo years. 

I suspected Adam Simpson would also be first coach axed in 2018. 

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Connar from The Roar has us finishing 5th and losing to Hawthorn in the elimination. Has Port and Essendon making the prelims. Connar is entitled to an opinion of course. Port in a prelim?? Not for me. 

https://apple.news/A782qvsoKQcyALXP3Dba_gA

Edited by Dee Zephyr

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2 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Connar from The Roar has us finishing 5th and losing to Hawthorn in the elimination. Has Port and Essendon making the prelims. Connar is entitled to an opinion of course. Port in a prelim?? Not for me. 

https://apple.news/A782qvsoKQcyALXP3Dba_gA

Rubbish superficial analysis IMO.  They have Collingwood finishing 2nd and then going out in straight sets at the MCG vs West Coast and then Port.  That is a ridiculously improbable prediction.

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20 hours ago, radar said:

10th

back to yo yo years. 

I suspected Adam Simpson would also be first coach axed in 2018. 

not sure that we will yo yo but if the top ten teams are separated only by 2-3 games as they were this year we could end up anywhere between 2 and 10.

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20 hours ago, radar said:

10th

back to yo yo years. 

I suspected Adam Simpson would also be first coach axed in 2018. 

Yes I remember the 1994, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004 years. Even 2006. The promised land was said to be within our grasp only to miss the finals. 

We have a tough year. I have us at 15 wins so around 4th/5th. 

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1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Yes I remember the 1994, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004 years. Even 2006. The promised land was said to be within our grasp only to miss the finals. 

We have a tough year. I have us at 15 wins so around 4th/5th. 

I dont believe there will be a drop off.

The dees are now made up of hard competitive youngsters with a smattering of maturity that don't take backward steps. They know how good they can be . Witness killer performances in the first 2 finals. 

 

Those earlier teams were flaky at times with substanard on field leadership.

Not so now. Viney olivet gawn etc won't allow it.

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On 10/20/2018 at 5:56 PM, FlashInThePan said:

I am surprised by how many people have port in the top 8 next year. I am predicting a disastrous season for them.

Same.  They are soft as butter and I reckon Hinkley is toast.

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