Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Harbinger43 87]

Don't rule the Eagles out of this.   Have heard a strong message they are very keen to find a way to do this. 

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

6 minutes ago, Harbinger43 said:

Don't rule the Eagles out of this.   Have heard a strong message they are very keen to find a way to do this. 

WOW!  To hear this from you gives it some real cred.

If I recall correctly, you nailed the progress of the Jesse negotiations during the pre trade period in 2016.  And you nailed the progress of the Lever negotiations last year.  It came to pass just as you had described.

Your don't post often but you have been right on the money!  Thanks for your input.

The fun and games are just starting!

Edited October 3, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[Harbinger43 87]

My info in this is not as sound as the previous year ones you refer to but understand WCE concerned re Kennedy age and durability and see this as one they might rule letting slip 

[John Demonic 4,781]

Is it not possible that they pay 150-200k per year and allow us to match the NM Gaff offer, we give Hogan for their pick 20 & 21? Gaff just needs convincing to join us on our 1mil per year offer (1.2m after subsidy)

What are the drawbacks that im failing to see here? Seems a win win. Matching NM and getting their pick 10 doesnt seem that great comparatively

Edited October 3, 2018 by johndemonic

[stevethemanjordan 6,952]

4 minutes ago, Harbinger43 said:

and see this as one they might rule letting slip 

Rule? Interesting. 

[GCDee 3,004]

11 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Nice hypothetical!  It would really snooker North:  choose between Polec or Gaff!!

 

Your underlying point is valid.  If WCE want Jesse they will find the trade currency to make it happen.  They can package up their 2018/2019 picks (to other clubs) to find a deal that we can agree with.  Any WCE players we would be interested in, for a Jesse deal?

Having said that I reckon WCE are posturing!  Their fans would be asking the big question:  Why aren't we chasing Jesse?  WCE can't be seen to be doing nothing. 

Their fans would love the theater of giving Freo a fright and watching them squirm, even if they don't get Jesse.

oh yeah that's a nice little bonus

Not sure if there are many Victorian WCE players we would have interest in which would be getable... 

I like the idea of the later first rounders from WCE has it appears we are trading them anyway.... 5 for May is simply too much. Whereas a pick between 10-15 sounds like its on the money. 

[beelzebub 22,225]

18 minutes ago, Harbinger43 said:

Don't rule the Eagles out of this.   Have heard a strong message they are very keen to find a way to do this. 

With ? 

[GCDee 3,004]

8 minutes ago, johndemonic said:

Is it not possible that they pay 150-200k per year and allow us to match the NM Gaff offer, we give Hogan for their pick 20 & 21? Just needs convincing to join us.

What are the drawbacks that im failing to see here? Seems a win win. Matching NM and getting their pick 10 doesnt seem that great comparatively

I feel like this is tampering of some form? 

Plus they would now have Jesse on their books @ at least 1 Mil. 

[binman 37,750]

9 hours ago, EnterTheDragon said:

 

Not saying Hogan didn’t have a good year and isn’t a good player but it needs mentioning again that he consistently did not play well in games against quality opposition in 2018. 9 goals in his 8 games against the top 10 clubs on the ladder. It’s not “fall over yourself spectacular” is it?

Hogan is a good footballer and a great prospect but he should not be mentioned in the same breath as the Chris Judd trade to Carlton, as Olisik did. That is my point.

 

I'm guessing we lost almost all of those 8 games you refer to. Those 10 clubs have the best defences and all team pressure in the comp so very hard for forwards, particularly with how many poor kicks we have (exacerbated by opposition pressure on the inside 50 kick)

In that context 9 goals from 8 games is ok. Particularly from a still developing, 23 year old key position player who often gets the best defender and has the intercept defender concentrating on covering him (and helped in that by poor kicks inside 50).

The interesting thing about the Judd trade is not Judd, it's Kennedy. About the same age as Hogan is now. His potential was obvious but he was the cream in that deal not the substance. Look at what he has become. Close to the best forward in the game and a critical player in the makeup of a gf winning team. Imagine how good jessie will be at the same stage of his career as Kennedy is now!

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

11 minutes ago, GCDee said:

oh yeah that's a nice little bonus

Not sure if there are many Victorian WCE players we would have interest in which would be getable... 

I like the idea of the later first rounders from WCE has it appears we are trading them anyway.... 5 for May is simply too much. Whereas a pick between 10-15 sounds like its on the money. 

Too many factors at play for me to get into the pick # discussion.  But I guess it comes down to whether we have a target high in the draft. 

Given our mo, if we get enough trade currency in for the May deal and for our other targets the actual draft pick #'s aren't such a big deal. The pick #s for Hogan might outrage some fans but if we get the list we want so be it.

Edited October 3, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[beelzebub 22,225]

52 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

It could get ugly if he nominates the Eagles though.  They have Gaff cap space too.

They can pay him...but us ?

[jnrmac 18,914]

37 minutes ago, GCDee said:

Hypothetically if they match the Gaff offer & force a trade in means WCE will have picks 10 & 18 this year... which on points is worth between pick 2 & 3. 

That would be a pretty damn good starting point for a trade. 

If the general consensus is he is worth pick 5 & 10 then on points we would need another pick somewhere between 15-18 to get the same value...

Therefore!

Hogan out

10, 18 & WCE 2019 first round in. 

No one GAF about points unless you are trying to recruit an academy player or a father/son.

[John Demonic 4,781]

13 minutes ago, GCDee said:

I feel like this is tampering of some form? 

Plus they would now have Jesse on their bookst @ at least 1 Mil. 

Ill confess my ignorance on the matter of picks and clubs salary caps. Im just curious if WCE's admission of interest in Hogan can shift the landscape today and get us Gaff somehow. Perhaps its too fanciful.

Edited October 3, 2018 by johndemonic

[McQueen 17,862]

5 minutes ago, johndemonic said:

Ill confess my ignorance on the matter of picks and clubs salary caps. Im just curious if WCE's admission of interest in Hogan can shift the landscape today and get us Gaff somehow. Perhaps its too fanciful.

I think it’s highly probable. 

[Dwight Schrute 16,722]

Makes sense for the Eagles. Hogan and darling would keep them up the top of the tree long term. 

It would be interesting if they could get a trade done. 

What this does that is puts further heat on the dockers to just hand over 4 & 5 for hogan 

[Binmans PA 25,890]

Who'd have thought we'd be thanking the scum of Meth Coast?

[Nasher 33,047]

I would love to believe we could engineer a trade with West Coast that would bring Gaff, but it seems like too many unlikely events occurring:

- Hogan wanting to go to West Coast. This is part go home, part the fact that Freo have been in his ear since he was 17. West Coast don’t have a 6 year old relationship with him.

- Gaff being party to this. He’s told North that if he leaves, it’s to them. He’s not going to backflip for no good reason.

- West Coast being able to come up with enough extras to seal the deal. Gaff is the equivalent of one of those early first rounders Freo have - where’s the other one going to come from?

- If not Gaff and instead they try to use their Gaff compo to land some early pics, it would take a monumental trading effort to get in to the early top 10 x2. That’s an even more difficult proposition for them.

I like the posturing though. If nothing else it ensures Freo are held accountable.

[Superunknown 3,307]

Gleeson, Niall and Bartel on The Age podcast saying Hogan for 4 or 5, and "he's not worth both" [presume they mean 4 and 5 rather than some combo of 4/5 and 9/10)].

It seems that Demonlanders are fairly unanimous that Hogan is worth 2 picks in top 10 and some media now clear he's worth 1.

How do this seemingly knowledgeable trio seem poles apart from the combined intelligence of Demonland.

 

EDIT: Part 2 sans Bartel - parenthesis mine. Niall: there's no way the Demons will let Hogan go for less than 2 x top (10, presumably) picks. He's a super talent. Etc etc.

Strange move but they have Tmac and Weid.

If Demons have May, they're in premiership contention. Still need an outside player who can spread (say hi to KK). Internal dev to outside: Hunt.

Dom Tyson (on 500K?! or so):

Edited October 4, 2018 by Superunknown

[deanox 8,510]

2 hours ago, Dr.D said:

Please! you're telling me harrison petty and an upgrade from a 4th to a 3rd round draft pick actually changes anything?  The odds of picking up a career player drops significantly after the first round. These were merely slight adjustments to a one sided trade. Adelaide definitely got the better of that trade thus far. Lever will miss games next season too so we've lost 1.5 seasons from him unfortunately.  I love josh Mahoneys ability to get things done but we could've technically got him for free if we wanted to play hardball. 

Our 4th round is 69, and their 3rd round is 43. It's a pretty significant upgrade. 

The total trade was

Out: 2017 pick 10, 2018 picks 15 and 69

In: 2017 pick 35, 2018 pick 43 and Lever

 

Or

1395 + 1112 + 49 = 2556 points

522 + 378 + Lever = 900 + Lever

 

Indicating Lever was worth 1656 points in the trade. That 1,656 points is the equivalent of pick 7, or of pick 21 and 22, or of 10 and 48.

Not everyone will see it that way,  but the MFC definitely does.

 

Think of it this way: In return for lever we downgraded our:

-2017 1st round pick to a 2nd round (costing 25 places in the draft); and

-2018 1st round to a 3rd round (costing 28 places).

 

Edited October 3, 2018 by deanox

[Binmans PA 25,890]

3 minutes ago, Nasher said:

I would love to believe we could engineer a trade with West Coast that would bring Gaff, but it seems like too many unlikely events occurring:

- Hogan wanting to go to West Coast. This is part go home, part the fact that Freo have been in his ear since he was 17. West Coast don’t have a 6 year old relationship with him.

- Gaff being party to this. He’s told North that if he leaves, it’s to them. He’s not going to backflip for no good reason.

- West Coast being able to come up with enough extras to seal the deal. Gaff is the equivalent of one of those early first rounders Freo have - where’s the other one going to come from?

- If not Gaff and instead they try to use their Gaff compo to land some early pics, it would take a monumental trading effort to get in to the early top 10 x2. That’s an even more difficult proposition for them.

I like the posturing though. If nothing else it ensures Freo are held accountable.

Absolutely no way West Coast haven't also been in his ear in that time.

[Dockett 32 1,213]

Mahoney seemed crystal clear.

[red and blue forever 769]

West coast getting involved will be great for us, Starts a bidding war between them and Freo...

[beelzebub 22,225]

I think Eagles just keeps Dockers honest here.

Im struggling to see how Eagles can make it work. If by a miracle they can it will take conjuring of the highest order and adeal of time and other trades. Are we any better off ?  Freo effectively HAVE the capacity to deal. 

I would expect it's still very much Freemantle. Bell can't fluff around now just in case, but still very much doubt we'll get 4/5. 4 or 5 and something...and done quite early.

[Diamond_Jim 11,675]

5 minutes ago, A F said:

Absolutely no way West Coast haven't also been in his ear in that time.

Agree and of course every club looks at every player at every other club.. it is their job

The simple way for it to happen is for WCE to contract Gaff and then trade him to us in return for Hogan. Would make Gaff a hero in the west and it doesn't really adversely impact him

Stranger things have happened.

Is it a fair trade... not sure and of course there is the salary issue for Gaff

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,386]

1 minute ago, beelzebub said:

I think Eagles just keeps Dockers honest here.

Im struggling to see how Eagles can make it work. If by a miracle they can it will take conjuring of the highest order and adeal of time and other trades. Are we any better off ?  Freo effectively HAVE the capacity to deal. 

I would expect it's still very much Freemantle. Bell can't fluff around now just in case, but still very much doubt we'll get 4/5. 4 or 5 and something...and done quite early.

The major benefit is Freo won't want to risk waiting another year as the Eagles may have more to deal with next season.

Their hand will get forced as a result.