Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Binmans PA 25,978]

28 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I don't think so because it puts the heat on them to come up with a deal that will give us a sufficient pick (top 5 pick) to get May. Otherwise we keep Hogan because trading him out for anything less doesn't get us May so why would we do it?

We should be pushing for 2 first rounders in my mind but if the FD have other ideas (ie willing to accept a top 5 pick and an early 2nd rounder) then the ball is in Freo's court to give us a suitable deal or they don't get Hogan.

But IMO we'd have been demanding two first rounders anyway. A top 5 pick with another early to mid first rounder. We didn't need to give them any leverage.

I disagree that it makes them come up with a strong deal. They need to in order to make us come to the table at all, given Hogan's contracted and we don't have to trade him.

Further, Freo have external pressures on them (the FD and the administration) to step up and get their members signed on for 2019. Their cross-town rivals have just won their fourth flag, Freo are still on the duck and have been on the decline since 2014ish.

We didn't need to put heat on them. They were already in the fire.

[beelzebub 22,225]

Just now, SFebes said:

Buy high sell low

Buy low sell high ...if stocks, currency etc.

But what I was getting at is markets have their own dynamic.

[DeeZee 6,731]

Looking like nothing will be done this week.

If they don’t do the Neale trade early next week it’s looking increasingly unlikely we will have the time to get the other trades through.

[demoniac 1,243]

1 hour ago, EnterTheDragon said:

There is method to Bell’s seeming madness. His endgame as drdrake mentioned a few posts back us to get both Hogan and Lobb in the door. Freo have close to the worst forward set up in the competition at present and these two coming in will get the Freo fans very excited. This is the real “feather in cap” Bell wants to exit trade week with, not Lachie Neale. The tough talk about keeping Neale is just bluster. 

The lowball pick 11 and 23 offer for Hogan may have seemed pointless but the tactic there is to frustrate Melbourne and also waste our time, with the aim of softening us up to accept pick 5 & 23 at the death in the final day of trade week. Bell knows we would MUCH prefer picks 5 & 11 for Hogan but he needs to retain pick 11 to secure Lobb from GWS. So he is banking on us growing impatient, getting worried by Wednesday that the whole thing is going to fall through, and just signing off on the 5 & 23 deal. 

As soon as the Neale domino falls Mahoney is going to be faced with a reasonably hard call to make. Accept 5 & 23 for Hogan or reject it and make Jesse play out the final year of his contract. Not sure what I would do personally, it’s a tough one. 

Bell is banking on us tiring of the whole Hogan saga and just being happy to move on, get our man May in with pick 5 going out to Gold Coast, and sucking up the fact that we’ve received unders for a forward we - to be honest - haven’t made a huge effort to retain.

Pugnacious, annoying little [censored] Peter Bell. But he’s no dill.

On the other hand we could completely ruin his life by holding on to Hogan and giving Simmo a call over at the Eagles about a deal for Jesse next year! But would that be in our interests? They will probably have a lot less to offer us than pick 5 & 23. 

I think Freo might have us snookered here.

Mahoney has made it pretty clear that Jesse and his management know and are ok with the picks that we need to release him to Freo this year.

Bell may be no dill but rarely has an AFL club entrusted its trade negotiations to a duo as inexperienced in negotiating trades than Freo with Bell and Rosich. Bell obviously wants to make a big statement in his first week in the job - trying on win-lose trades and thinking he could sweet talk Neale into extending at Freo - but we don't have to come to the party  and  going by what Mahoney has said we know the deal we need to release Jesse this year. 

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 3,925]

1 hour ago, EnterTheDragon said:

There is method to Bell’s seeming madness. His endgame as drdrake mentioned a few posts back us to get both Hogan and Lobb in the door. Freo have close to the worst forward set up in the competition at present and these two coming in will get the Freo fans very excited. This is the real “feather in cap” Bell wants to exit trade week with, not Lachie Neale. The tough talk about keeping Neale is just bluster. 

The lowball pick 11 and 23 offer for Hogan may have seemed pointless but the tactic there is to frustrate Melbourne and also waste our time, with the aim of softening us up to accept pick 5 & 23 at the death in the final day of trade week. Bell knows we would MUCH prefer picks 5 & 11 for Hogan but he needs to retain pick 11 to secure Lobb from GWS. So he is banking on us growing impatient, getting worried by Wednesday that the whole thing is going to fall through, and just signing off on the 5 & 23 deal. 

As soon as the Neale domino falls Mahoney is going to be faced with a reasonably hard call to make. Accept 5 & 23 for Hogan or reject it and make Jesse play out the final year of his contract. Not sure what I would do personally, it’s a tough one. 

Bell is banking on us tiring of the whole Hogan saga and just being happy to move on, get our man May in with pick 5 going out to Gold Coast, and sucking up the fact that we’ve received unders for a forward we - to be honest - haven’t made a huge effort to retain.

Pugnacious, annoying little [censored] Peter Bell. But he’s no dill.

On the other hand we could completely ruin his life by holding on to Hogan and giving Simmo a call over at the Eagles about a deal for Jesse next year! But would that be in our interests? They will probably have a lot less to offer us than pick 5 & 23. 

I think Freo might have us snookered here.

11 for Lob?!! please ?

[TRIGON 4,715]

39 minutes ago, drdrake said:

I think 5 and 23 plus swap next years first round pick gets this deal done.

So, bistro maths time. In: Pick 5 (1,878 points), Pick 23 (815 points), Freo's 2019 R1 - guessing P5 (1878 points). Out Melb 2019 R1 - guessing Pick 15 (1,125 points). Equals 3,615 points. So that's about pick 5 & 6, albeit with a some degree of uncertainty for both clubs.

[SFebes 4,692]

5 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Buy low sell high ...if stocks, currency etc.

But what I was getting at is markets have their own dynamic.

Sorry, I was being sarcastic.

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

5 minutes ago, TRIGON said:

So, bistro maths time. In: Pick 5 (1,878 points), Pick 23 (815 points), Freo's 2019 R1 - guessing P5 (1878 points). Out Melb 2019 R1 - guessing Pick 15 (1,125 points). Equals 3,615 points. So that's about pick 5 & 6, albeit with a some degree of uncertainty for both clubs.

Like it Trigon. 

In a fair and equitable world those sums make sense. But do we live in a fair and equitable world?

Edited October 12, 2018 by EnterTheDragon

[junk 342]

I wonder what Hogan thinks of Freo's pathetic offer ? If he doesn't care I would be disappointed, considering our club has been good to him. Personally if it was me, I would tell Freo to get knotted and never play for the club. But money talks !!!!!. 

[SFebes 4,692]

~10 list spots to fill.......tick tock

[John Demonic 4,794]

 

15 minutes ago, TRIGON said:

So, bistro maths time. In: Pick 5 (1,878 points), Pick 23 (815 points), Freo's 2019 R1 - guessing P5 (1878 points). Out Melb 2019 R1 - guessing Pick 15 (1,125 points). Equals 3,615 points. So that's about pick 5 & 6, albeit with a some degree of uncertainty for both clubs.

They'd be reticent to do that, knowing we're getting a pick to get Steven May and then looking at being a premiership favourite. That's Pick 19 or 20, not 15. And without Neale, an injury to Fyfe or Sandi has that being potentially pick 1,2 or 3.

Edited October 12, 2018 by johndemonic

[TRIGON 4,715]

5 minutes ago, ENYAW said:

I wonder what Hogan thinks of Freo's pathetic offer ? If he doesn't care I would be disappointed, considering our club has been good to him. Personally if it was me, I would tell Freo to get knotted and never play for the club. But money talks !!!!!. 

And it speaks many languages...Freo should interpret that as many clubs. If they leave this unresolved  then next year's bidding contest for Jessie could become a real bunfight.

[Ouch! 2,034]

11 minutes ago, johndemonic said:

Is there a way for us to get Brisbane's #5 AND 2019 first round pick (5-8) so Freo can send them neale, and we can then send Hogan? Which player and pick could we send to Brisbane? I'd much rather us take a pick 5 into the draft AND get Steven May. The goalposts don't have to shift from our initial request of pick 5 & 6. Especially not to 5+23+30 pick etc

I'd love us to be working out something with Brisbane that takes pick 5 off the table and forces Freo to accept something less for Neale.

If they have an interest in Hunt, possibly Hunt and our next years first round pick and for pick 5.

It's not a good deal for Brisbane on the face of it, but it might put the wind up Freo if they think that getting pick 5 and attempting to keep it instead of using it for Hogan.  Melbourne might then accept 11 and the future second round pick for Hogan.

I know my pick values are probably not accurate, however what it means is that Melbourne and Brisbane force the play with Freo, and we still end up with 5 and 11   and make the trade period move!

 

[sisso 2,383]

Bulldogs into May for pick 7 apparently

[TRIGON 4,715]

1 minute ago, johndemonic said:

They'd be reti

 

They'd be reticent to do that, knowing we're getting a pick to get Steven May and then looking at being a premiership favourite. That's Pick 19 or 20.

The counter-balance being that this would allow Freo to get both Hogan and Lobb, making them better; the points drop off being more substantial between the early picks compared to the later round 1 picks.

Everyone gets what they want.

[TRIGON 4,715]

2 minutes ago, sisso said:

Bulldogs into May for pick 7 apparently

Thanks, where's that rumour coming from Sisso? 

[beelzebub 22,225]

53 pages to go....

You can doooooo itt !!!

[Redleg 37,554]

JM may have put paid to our alternative May deals, when he said today, that without the Hogan deal we won't get May.

[McQueen 17,862]

36 minutes ago, A F said:

I know a few people have alluded to it already, but I think Mahoney tying May to the Hogan deal at all was really poor strategy. It doesn't matter if he meant we wouldn't have the cash or the picks to get May if the Hogan trade didn't go through. That's not the argument here, but mentioning May at all in trade discussions RE Hogan was poor strategy.

I'm on record has being a huge FD and Mahoney fan. I think what they've been able to do over the past 4 or 5 off seasons has been terrific, but this was foolish messaging that has given the little Fremantle man unnecessary leverage that he wouldn't have otherwise had.

I think it's just Mahoney being pragmatic. Everyone with a half a decent sheep's brain knows that the Hogan trade is the key to any other downstream trade target so why say otherwise? You just make yourself out to look like a dill.

Also, Mahoney has mentioned 'other deals' are reliant on the Hogan trade so the mentioning of May only, is somewhat already diluted by these other possibilities.

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

7 minutes ago, TRIGON said:

And it speaks many languages...Freo should interpret that as many clubs. If they leave this unresolved  then next year's bidding contest for Jessie could become a real bunfight.

Not necessarily. Hogan can nominate Freo and threaten to walk to the PSD.

Does the MFC really want THAT bunfight? I don’t think so.

[TRIGON 4,715]

1 minute ago, beelzebub said:

53 pages to go....

You can doooooo itt !!!

Get to the Chopper!!!

[McQueen 17,862]

7 minutes ago, sisso said:

Bulldogs into May for pick 7 apparently

A shame he doesn't want to go there.

[John Demonic 4,794]

11 minutes ago, Ouch! said:

I'd love us to be working out something with Brisbane that takes pick 5 off the table and forces Freo to accept something less for Neale.

If they have an interest in Hunt, possibly Hunt and our next years first round pick and for pick 5.

It's not a good deal for Brisbane on the face of it, but it might put the wind up Freo if they think that getting pick 5 and attempting to keep it instead of using it for Hogan.  Melbourne might then accept 11 and the future second round pick for Hogan.

I know my pick values are probably not accurate, however what it means is that Melbourne and Brisbane force the play with Freo, and we still end up with 5 and 11   and make the trade period move!

 

The only issue was Lobbe. Freo want Lobb and i dare say pick 11-20 will get it done, currently they're rejecting 5+23 from Bris. My idea is simply to leave Freo pick 11, we take Bris 5 + 2019 first round pick, they get Neale + The pick/player that gives them fair value for losing a 2019 1st round. Bris would back themselves to finish with pick 8-10 anyway with Neale on board.

Edited October 12, 2018 by johndemonic

[TRIGON 4,715]

2 minutes ago, EnterTheDragon said:

Not necessarily. Hogan can nominate Freo and threaten to walk to the PSD.

Does the MFC really want THAT bunfight? I don’t think so.

Puts both MFC and Freo at risk; no guarantee that his head isn't turned by fresh offers in the interim. 

[Matsuo Basho 1,053]

It’s coming down to this: 

1. Accept pick 5 & 23 from Freo for Hogan 

2. Hold out for 5 & 11 and walk away if not met.

What will the club do?

What should the club do? 

Going to go down to the wire folks. Real line ball call given all the circumstances. Wednesday it’s Mahoney v Bell with guns drawn outside the OK Corral.