Farewell Jesse Hogan

[Moonshadow 16,108]

2 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

I've been wondering about that. the opinion on May is wildlly divided... At least with Lever you had most people rating him as 2 firsts, through to a 1st and 2nd... I've heard some say May is worth only a third. Others say he's worth pick 5...

I'm inclined to go with a straight up pick 5. Lever was 2 firsts because he's a class player, AA and has 10 years left. May is still quite young (26), is a proven KP back (they're rare). Also his market value is climbing with all these other clubs keen on him. If Dons offer a first rounder and change for him, then we may need to up our offer.

Dododo will offer pick 58 for May and wonder why they are laughing at him

[DeeZone 7,650]

I cannot get my head around anyone wanting to Trade Jesse Hogan, you all just saw what Kennedy & Darling did for Meth Coast just last Saturday, he is the Best young Forward (KPF) going around, we (MFC) have him and we need to keep him. We don't need a lot from this years draft and there aren't any Silver Bullets or quick fixes hiding around the corner. Jesse will be reaching his peak over the next 2-5 years, let it be with MFC, lets not use him to set up another side and potentially rob us of what we need to attain.

I say keep him what ever the cost.............!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[DubDee 20,332]

20 minutes ago, beelzebub said:

Whatever the value we get for Jesse we need it to be playing next year and becoming part of our premiership/s team as early as possible.

Any idea of delaying or seeking to buy into the draft for kids who may or may not be something...and some unknown time down the track is plain folly.

As LH alludes we'll trade for whatever gets the next deal/s done and someone/s on the park.

you do realise all of our best players have come from the draft?  aside from Lever.

if we can pick up another Oliver/Gus/Hogan then why not do it.  they do not take long to have an impact and will extend our time at the top.  our recruiting team have been amazing the last  few years. 

[Macca 16,173]

3 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Yes, of course it has value.  But I was suggesting the value of a given pick is assessed differently by clubs than by fans.  Clubs focus on the value of what it can buy.  Fans focus on some mythical value intrinsic to the number. 

I'll leave it at that - I was just amused about the pre-occupation fans have with a specific pick.

And I am amused as well ... that is why I argue that picks are overvalued from a macro & micro point of view

We are in agreeance except I reckon there is a true value attached if analysing the flaws

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Just now, Macca said:

I stand by my comment tbat draft picks are overvalued.

So overvalued. Back 10 years ago people thought all drafts would end up like the Judd/Ball/Hodge year, where an early pick is a sure thing. As time's gone on though, we've seen how drafts are supposed to work in US sports... And we can't quite get that effective (recruitment age way younger). Nowadays if you have a known quantity, it's much easier to pull the trigger on an overs trade. Not only that, but we've seen so much value come from mature age players in third and fourth rounds... Picks aren't what they used to be.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

2 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

I cannot get my head around anyone wanting to Trade Jesse Hogan, you all just saw what Kennedy & Darling did for Meth Coast just last Saturday, he is the Best young Forward (KPF) going around, we (MFC) have him and we need to keep him. We don't need a lot from this years draft and there aren't any Silver Bullets or quick fixes hiding around the corner. Jesse will be reaching his peak over the next 2-5 years, let it be with MFC, lets not use him to set up another side and potentially rob us of what we need to attain.

I say keep him what ever the cost.............!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He's reportedly not signing with us next year. We can't keep a player for 2-5 years who isn't signed with us. 

3 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

Dododo will offer pick 58 for May and wonder why they are laughing at him

lol....

[DubDee 20,332]

4 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

I cannot get my head around anyone wanting to Trade Jesse Hogan, you all just saw what Kennedy & Darling did for Meth Coast just last Saturday, he is the Best young Forward (KPF) going around, we (MFC) have him and we need to keep him. We don't need a lot from this years draft and there aren't any Silver Bullets or quick fixes hiding around the corner. Jesse will be reaching his peak over the next 2-5 years, let it be with MFC, lets not use him to set up another side and potentially rob us of what we need to attain.

I say keep him what ever the cost.............!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I agree, I don't think many want to trade him but it seems he wants to go back to WA so we are dealing with this potential reality

[DeeZone 7,650]

Reportedly - By WHO..........!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We need to make the right offer and we have 12 months to maintain his attention.............!!!!!!!!!

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Just now, DeeZone said:

Reportedly - By WHO..........!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We need to make the right offer and we have 12 months to maintain his attention.............!!!!!!!!!

So we keep a malcontent on our list who'll disrupt the side for all of 2019, and in the end sign as a free agent with Freo anyway, and all we get is a late first round pick in return?

No. If he's going anyway, we make the smart business decision and get what we can, while we can.

Look... I'm not saying I've given up hope that their meetings over the coming days lead to him signing a 6 year deal... but it's looking increasingly unlikely.

You need to come to terms with the fact that Jesse is possibly already out the door. If it's true that he is, holding onto him for 12 months will do nothing for MFC.

[DeeZone 7,650]

I will be extremely disappointed if MFC let a potential Super Star slip through our fingers, what ever we got for him would never be enough...........!!!!!!!!!!!!??

[number 27 62]

so where do we find the 47 goals that he kicked this year? my concern is that we will be 282 points worse off, brings us well back on %. we give these 282 points to Fremantle and it brings them into contention for the bottom part of the 8.

Fremantle are not the basket case we think they are, they are a bigger club than MFC

two years from now he will kick 100 goals in a season  

it will set us back, no doubt. keep at all cost. if we can....

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

1 minute ago, DeeZone said:

I will be extremely disappointed if MFC let a potential Super Star slip through our fingers, what ever we got for him would never be enough...........!!!!!!!!!!!!??

Were are you getting this "let" thing from?

Did the Crows "let" Lever move to the demons?

Players leave clubs all the time to return to their home state. There's not "letting" in it. If he's going to leave anyway, you WANT him to tell you a year in advance, while he's contracted, so you can get a fair price for him when he walks.

Jeezus.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

2 minutes ago, number 27 said:

so where do we find the 47 goals that he kicked this year?

it will set us back, no doubt. keep at all cost. if we can....

- That's what worries me. He's an out and out star. Simple as that.

- It's looking likely now that it's just not up to us. Contracts don't count for squat anymore. Players get to where they want/need to go. You should brace yourself for the news that "if we can" isn't a reality anymore. We got Lever in exactly the same way. This is the way of modern footy now.

[Ouch! 2,034]

5 minutes ago, number 27 said:

so where do we find the 47 goals that he kicked this year? my concern is that we will be 282 points worse off, brings us well back on %. we give these 282 points to Fremantle and it brings them into contention for the bottom part of the 8.

Weid might not be good for all 47, but it should be expected that he covers at least 25-30 of them. So don't be too dramatic about the impact. Hogan will also replace one of their forwards who has no doubt kicked some goals this year.

That being the case, there is still a shortfall we would need to find, however what happened this year is that other's stepped up and kicked goals in his absence, it's likely to make the forward line less predicable, Gawn, Melk, Fritsch, ANB will all need to be able to cover some of the difference.  It's not as terrible as it sounds.

[Moonshadow 16,108]

12 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

I will be extremely disappointed if MFC let a potential Super Star slip through our fingers, what ever we got for him would never be enough...........!!!!!!!!!!!!??

You might want to hold back on the overuse of exclamation marks and emojis until he is traded (If he is). You're going to need them then.

[Demon Disciple 10,893]

1 hour ago, hells bells said:

If he goes it has to be 2 x top 10 picks or equivalent players.  1 first rounder is an absolute gift to Freo.  Lachie Weller was traded for pick 2 FFS

A fantastic and very prudent observation bells.

Hogan is definitely worth twice the value of Weller, but for arguments sake let’s say a very conservative and generous for Freo, 1.25. That right there is the value of 1.25x 2517 points = 3146 points, aka pick 5 and pick 12. That then becomes pick 10 if Freo’s Pick 5 gets pushed out to 6 due to the Lynch compo.

[Macca 16,173]

27 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

So overvalued. Back 10 years ago people thought all drafts would end up like the Judd/Ball/Hodge year, where an early pick is a sure thing. As time's gone on though, we've seen how drafts are supposed to work in US sports... And we can't quite get that effective (recruitment age way younger). Nowadays if you have a known quantity, it's much easier to pull the trigger on an overs trade. Not only that, but we've seen so much value come from mature age players in third and fourth rounds... Picks aren't what they used to be.

My view on how flawed drafting can be came before we ever had a draft and also not on what does consistently happen in the States.

The true value for Hogan is more like 3 x top 10 picks based on those flaws if the desire is to win-out on the deal.  Who wanrs to lose out?

Get everything we can and then some.

Edited September 27, 2018 by Macca

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Just now, Macca said:

My view on how flawed drafting can be came before we ever had a draft and also not on what does considtently happen in the States.

The true value for Hogan is more like 3 x top 10 picks based on those flaws and if we the desire is to win-out on the deal.  Who wanrs to lose?

Get everything we can and then some.

Jeezus. There's been a draft in the AFL as long as I've been alive.

Yeah as we've spoken about before, the early recruiting age plays havoc with drafting and makes it more hit and miss. The comparison to NFL drafting for example, is a good one. First rounders get traded with a heavy value, and rightly so, you're picking up players who are far closer to known quantities. Things like that are what we can learn (as fans) when it comes to assessing a player's value in terms of picks.

Completely agree on the 3Xtop 10... It won't happen of course. But I agree with the price. I was saying 2 firsts and a super quick skilled midfielder as my price... only because I want some sort of known quantity as we're in our window now.

[jnrmac 18,914]

21 hours ago, Superunknown said:

Have you ever had a $5M cheque put in front of you?

He will not have a $5m cheque put in front of him. Don't over-egg the pudding.

[CityDee 738]

Whatever happens another year with Weed in the gym over summer should be able to kick 40 goals . 

We need a small foward who can kick 30-40 also hopefully Charlie is the man but not yet. 

[Diamond_Jim 11,673]

1 minute ago, Dappa Dan said:

Jeezus. There's been a draft in the AFL as long as I've been alive.

Yeah as we've spoken about before, the early recruiting age plays havoc with drafting and makes it more hit and miss. The comparison to NFL drafting for example, is a good one. First rounders get traded with a heavy value, and rightly so, you're picking up players who are far closer to known quantities. Things like that are what we can learn (as fans) when it comes to assessing a player's value in terms of picks.

Completely agree on the 3Xtop 10... It won't happen of course. But I agree with the price. I was saying 2 firsts and a super quick skilled midfielder as my price... only because I want some sort of known quantity as we're in our window now.

a digression but can you be drafted by an NFL club outside the college system? If so why do the top players play for nothing for three years. Many of the "name" basketballers now seem to bypass College.

Thanks

[jnrmac 18,914]

Everyone needs to chill. He hasn't met with the club yet.

It's all clickbait at this point

[Mondê 525]

Just now, jnrmac said:

He will not have a $5m cheque put in front of him. Don't over-egg the pudding.

TBH $5m sounds spot on. I'd say that's a realistic ballpark figure for what Freo would throw at Hogan. The current landscape of player movement involves lengthy multi year deals... Buddy to Sydney opened a can of worms that won't be closed any time soon.

[Bring Back Barassi 532]

4 hours ago, Leoncelli_36 said:

I’ve heard 1.2 mil on the table. To simply accept May in exchange for Hogan would be us getting completely and utterly bent over. May is a good average backman. We’ve gotta be strong with this deal. We are not to get screwed otherwise fans will be furious 

I have heard May referred to by some tv hacks as the 2nd best defender in the league, not that that means anything, but I suggest he is better than a good average backman

[Dr. Gonzo 22,396]

40 minutes ago, DeeZone said:

I cannot get my head around anyone wanting to Trade Jesse Hogan, you all just saw what Kennedy & Darling did for Meth Coast just last Saturday, he is the Best young Forward (KPF) going around, we (MFC) have him and we need to keep him. We don't need a lot from this years draft and there aren't any Silver Bullets or quick fixes hiding around the corner. Jesse will be reaching his peak over the next 2-5 years, let it be with MFC, lets not use him to set up another side and potentially rob us of what we need to attain.

I say keep him what ever the cost.............!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's not about wanting to trade him, it's about what we can get if he decides to leave.