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Hogan2014

Pies Gone Past Us ??

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I think we have some holes in our list. We still need outside run. Collingwood has this in spades.. they have a good list and appear well drilled- their system allows them to cover injuries well. They are well ahead.

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This is Buckleys 7th year as coach.  Last year was Hardwicks 8th or 9th?

Things take time.. we are ahead of schedule.

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25 minutes ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney have been able to retain genuinely good players from their previously successful sides through their rebuilds.  This is a huge advantage and has seen players like Sidebottom and Pendlebury playing alongside Degoey and Grundy.

We completely bottomed out of senior talent several times over the past twelve years.  It is a huge advantage to start a ‘rebuild’ with quality senior players already in the line-up.

Exactly. Those Magpie players were there in 2010 and know what it takes to get over the line. 

When the red and blue print was launched, little did we know the reverberations it would cause well into the future.

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Hhhhhaaang on a second. Their midfield is made up of two highly experienced premiership players in Sidebottom and Pendlebury. Take those guys out and they don't hold a candle to our midfield. 

It's a bit like the St Kilda mirage. They have hit the sweet spot with their system and their runners off half back and dangerous small forwards, but take those two out and they don't go near.

It's a list profile thing and I'd say we're incredibly even but given their two best mids are over 30 and ours are under 25, we're in a stronger position heading into the next 3-5 years.

Remember how their midfield was statistically rated the best a year or so ago and ours was rated the worst? This year our midfield flew by them statistically. However, their system and being able to play with the same coach for 7 years, has enabled them to click. 

Our ceiling is so much higher.

Edited by A F
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Have the pies gone past us,  or are they nearly past it? Even though I personally I didn't think they'd come good, this year is their window. They'd need it to all work next year for another chance. 

Looking at the Pies list age profile:

Name   Current Age
D Wells    33yr 7mth
L Dunn    31yr 4mth
T Goldsack    31yr 4mth    
S Pendlebury    30yr 8mth    
T Varcoe    30yr 5mth    
C Mayne    29yr 10mth
L Greenwood    29yr 7mth    
B Reid    29yr 4mth    

J Blair    28yr 5mth    
J Howe    28yr 2mth    
S Sidebottom    27yr 8mth
M Cox    27yr 6mth    


8 of their "best 22" will be 30 or older next season. And 4 more are pretty close.

 

Meanwhile our list:

Name    Current Age
B Vince    32yr 11mth
J Lewis    32yr 4mth    
C Pedersen    31yr 6mth    
N Jones    30yr 8mth    


J Garlett    29yr 1mth    
M Hibberd    28yr 8mth    
N Jetta    28yr 7mth
T Smith    27yr 7mth    
J Melksham    27yr    
C Maynard    26yr 11mth
M Gawn    26yr 8mth    
A Vandenberg    26yr 6mth    
T McDonald    26yr


T Bugg 25yr 5mth
D Tyson 25yr 3 mth


Of our 2018 best 22, only 2 players will be over 30, 4 players will be over 28 and 8 will be over 26 during 2019, and I'd argue Lewis would drop out of that, and VDB might be fringe with Hogan/Lever back, making it 1 over 30, 3 over 28 and 6 over 26.

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Fwiw from a list management perspective,  they set themselves up at the end of 2014 when they traded out:

Beams, Lumumba and pick 67

for 

Jack Crisp, Travis Varcoe, Levi Greenwood and pick 5 (de Gooey).

 

This is the trade that saw us get Lumumba for Clarke (probably a break even).

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58 minutes ago, A F said:

Hhhhhaaang on a second. Their midfield is made up of two highly experienced premiership players in Sidebottom and Pendlebury. Take those guys out and they don't hold a candle to our midfield. 

It's a bit like the St Kilda mirage. They have hit the sweet spot with their system and their runners off half back and dangerous small forwards, but take those two out and they don't go near.

It's a list profile thing and I'd say we're incredibly even but given their two best mids are over 30 and ours are under 25, we're in a stronger position heading into the next 3-5 years.

Remember how their midfield was statistically rated the best a year or so ago and ours was rated the worst? This year our midfield flew by them statistically. However, their system and being able to play with the same coach for 7 years, has enabled them to click. 

Our ceiling is so much higher.

That may be true AF, but for this season they are a better side.

We saw this in the last game of 2017 when they comprehensively outplayed us.

Our ceiling may be higher but for this year, the Pies are the better side.

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Sidebottom has had a stellar finals series.

Our players have been okay but no one took the game apart.

That's one big difference

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3 minutes ago, hemingway said:

That may be true AF, but for this season they are a better side.

We saw this in the last game of 2017 when they comprehensively outplayed us.

Our ceiling may be higher but for this year, the Pies are the better side.

What has Round 23 last year got to do with this year?

They made the GF and we didn't, so they've had a better year than us even if they don't win the flag. But last year hasn't got anything to do with it.

If you want an example of Collingwood thrashing us why not just refer to Queen's Birthday this year?

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4 hours ago, Fork 'em said:

Past us ....
When did we pass them?

 

The Pies have been tracking ahead of us marginally, for a few years, in a way by having more mature players than us, giving them more cohesion, and confidence in big games.  They haven't been thru the ringer like we have.

We've been building from a way lower base... But this was necessary in our case, due to the weak defeatist comfy culture infiltrating this club, for many a moon.

Our rebuild was all about ejecting this culture.  That's why it was necessary to cut so deep.  To start fresh.

 

'They', have a lot of players in their 34Yrs to 29+Yrs age bracket which will finish soon enough.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/tp-collingwood-magpies?year=2018&sby=15

IMO they will miss their older players finishing... than We at Mfc will with ours.

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53 minutes ago, deanox said:

Have the pies gone past us,  or are they nearly past it? Even though I personally I didn't think they'd come good, this year is their window. They'd need it to all work next year for another chance. 

Looking at the Pies list age profile:

Name   Current Age
D Wells    33yr 7mth
L Dunn    31yr 4mth
T Goldsack    31yr 4mth    
S Pendlebury    30yr 8mth    
T Varcoe    30yr 5mth    
C Mayne    29yr 10mth
L Greenwood    29yr 7mth    
B Reid    29yr 4mth    

J Blair    28yr 5mth    
J Howe    28yr 2mth    
S Sidebottom    27yr 8mth
M Cox    27yr 6mth    


8 of their "best 22" will be 30 or older next season. And 4 more are pretty close.

 

Meanwhile our list:

Name    Current Age
B Vince    32yr 11mth
J Lewis    32yr 4mth    
C Pedersen    31yr 6mth    
N Jones    30yr 8mth    


J Garlett    29yr 1mth    
M Hibberd    28yr 8mth    
N Jetta    28yr 7mth
T Smith    27yr 7mth    
J Melksham    27yr    
C Maynard    26yr 11mth
M Gawn    26yr 8mth    
A Vandenberg    26yr 6mth    
T McDonald    26yr


T Bugg 25yr 5mth
D Tyson 25yr 3 mth


Of our 2018 best 22, only 2 players will be over 30, 4 players will be over 28 and 8 will be over 26 during 2019, and I'd argue Lewis would drop out of that, and VDB might be fringe with Hogan/Lever back, making it 1 over 30, 3 over 28 and 6 over 26.

Hah, you've done the work before me 'Dnx'.  great work.

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23 minutes ago, hemingway said:

 

Our ceiling may be higher but for this year, the Pies are the better side.

Agree you can't buy the experience the Pies have. Just need to find a couple more gems in the draft,  a fit Hogan and Lever firing, retire J Lewis and trade D Tyson for something reasonable and will on our way.

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1 hour ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney have been able to retain genuinely good players from their previously successful sides through their rebuilds.  This is a huge advantage and has seen players like Sidebottom and Pendlebury playing alongside Degoey and Grundy.

We completely bottomed out of senior talent several times over the past twelve years.  It is a huge advantage to start a ‘rebuild’ with quality senior players already in the line-up.

There's quality and quality... a culture clean'-out is different, to a list clean-out of old players and list stoppers.

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28 minutes ago, hemingway said:

That may be true AF, but for this season they are a better side.

We saw this in the last game of 2017 when they comprehensively outplayed us.

Our ceiling may be higher but for this year, the Pies are the better side.

I tend to think our ceiling is not much higher, if it is at all.

This is why we need to continue recruiting top quality from draft and free agency, etc.  They, the Pies, will be doing the same as Us.

And they will come knocking for the Weide, no doubt.

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19 minutes ago, Jibroni said:

Agree you can't buy the experience the Pies have. Just need to find a couple more gems in the draft,  a fit Hogan and Lever firing, retire J Lewis and trade D Tyson for something reasonable and will on our way.

agreed

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42 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

What has Round 23 last year got to do with this year?

They made the GF and we didn't, so they've had a better year than us even if they don't win the flag. But last year hasn't got anything to do with it.

If you want an example of Collingwood thrashing us why not just refer to Queen's Birthday this year?

Sure, if you want to be pedantic. 

My point merely being they were building last year and were further ahead than most people gave them credit for. 

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Best of luck to Collingwood who have managed to salvage something after the bitter failure to follow through on the very youthful list that won the 2010 premiership.

I'm not sure it is useful to compare them to us, really. They are in a way much like Richmond, a team that had a large group of mature high-quality players but lacked the depth to really contend, and took the risk to top-up with additional mature players with the final booster of finding a few good contributors in the draft just at the right moment.

The only irritation is that I really think we'd be able to take Collingwood next week.

Am I right in recalling similar frustration in the 90s, where we managed to find a way to not be in a grand final despite probably being better than the team which eventually won? 1998 Adelaide, yes?

Anyway, given the ages of our top players, nobody is 'past' us. They are just lining up their old bodies for us to knock over as we get stronger, like Hawthorn and Geelong this year.

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19 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

They're the worst-credentialled GF side I can remember.

(99% sour grapes from me)

Carlton 99. 

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2 hours ago, praha said:

Carlton 99. 

1999 Carlton won five games against the 1999 finalists before the GF (three in the H&A, then two finals).

Still better than 2018 Collingwood (one in the H&A, two finals).

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9 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

1999 Carlton won five games against the 1999 finalists before the GF (three in the H&A, then two finals).

Still better than 2018 Collingwood (one in the H&A, two finals).

The league wasn't anywhere near as even though. And Carlton got pounded in the first week of the finals and would have rightfully been eliminated in the current top 8 system. In fact the AFL changed the system for 2000 because of Adelaide and Carlton making the GF from outside the top 4 despite losing their first final (and getting thrashed mind you). Carlton had no place in that GF. 

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This weekend is a catch 22 of misery

It either ends with a Flag to West Coast from the Boo Factory, or Nathan Buckley forever being referred to as a Premiership coach.

Truly horrific. 

 

I think I will be going for the Pies. *vomit*

 

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Collingwood is underrated here.  They had their first choice backline out (Moore, Godsack, Dunne, Howe, Scharneberg) and Treloar out simultaneously for a large part of the second half of the season.  Sure they had a run of luck but made the most of their chances and reached the top 4.

Having Treloar and Goldsack back has really strengthened their team.  And they still have 6 players who played in the 2010 Premiership/2011 GF.

As an aside the Eagles have 12 of their 2015 Grand Final team playing. 

I'll be honest and tipped neither team to make the top 8.  But both teams have done enough to get there and have solid recent finals experience.  Should be a riveting game - doubt I'll be watching.

Don't get me wrong, I loathe them with a passion but they haven't gone past us.  They were always further down the track.  We will catch up and overtake them soon enough.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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They are playing in a GF. We are not. Seems a question for the sake of a question 

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