Match Preview and Team Selection - Preliminary Final

[PaulRB 5,897]

9 minutes ago, M_9 said:

Qjartermain said on 3AW this morning that the rumour around WC was that Kennedy was playing on one leg.

Geez, it'd be a bonus if he didn't see out the game.

Hee hee hee... now wouldn’t that be nice.

On Smith inclusion, it adds leap and defensive aerial pressure, which will be essential late in the game when teams win clearances and bomb it in especially if they’re behind... 

just listened to a podcast by Malcolm Gladwell about when to “pull the goalie” in ice hocky, essentially an argument for rational statistic decisions over sentiment even if it going wrong may be embarrassing. And recon Goodies read/heard it as well... 

Go SoS! Go Demons! 

 

Edited September 20, 2018 by PaulRB

[Dee Zephyr 17,309]

Four teams left yeah?

[The Chazz 4,077]

16 minutes ago, M_9 said:

Qjartermain said on 3AW this morning that the rumour around WC was that Kennedy was playing on one leg.

Geez, it'd be a bonus if he didn't see out the game.

Watching Kennedy v Goldsack in that first final was like watching two snails trying to mate.

The week off may have given him more healing time, but geez, he was a long way off two week ago.

[Jaded No More 57,682]

2 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

This analysis is key to the selection of Smith.  Roughead, Schoenmakers and Gunston - 3 talls and Gunston got away and was best Hawk.

Kennedy, Vardy and Darling - even taller.

The choice betwen say Tyson and Fritsch looks like a choice between the contest which is "our brand" and kicking efficiency.  It's a trade off which focuses on what we value.

I can understand the FD thinking.

Correct, and by bringing in Smith you are essentially releasing Hibbo to do more of the attacking, rather than having to match up on a tall, as he did with Gunston and lost badly. So you aren't losing a lot of attack from the backline by doing this swap anyway. 

[Demon17 4,533]

9 hours ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

smith makes sense in terms of meth coke's forwards

it's gutting for bailey, but i can understand why they have gone with this change

smith looked good watching the vfl game on tv last week

Joel Smith was terrific at training on Wednesday also.  Not the end of the world for bailey although he will be disappointed. He will play forward next year when back line re-settles with lever and play every game.

Could be a selection next week for match ups if Dees get through tomorrow.

[poita 3,573]

I thought last week was the week to bring Smith in, and was surprised to see a change this week.

That said, Fritsch was poor in defence last week and Smith (for all his flaws) is probably a better option overall. I would have dropped Hannan and pushed Fritsch forward, but perhaps Goodwin thinks Fritsch is tired and/or down on confidence. Hannan owes us a couple of goals this week, because he has been ordinary in both finals.

I'm glad Tyson stays in as we need as much midfield depth as possible, and other than last week his form has been pretty good.

[binman 37,796]

12 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Correct, and by bringing in Smith you are essentially releasing Hibbo to do more of the attacking, rather than having to match up on a tall, as he did with Gunston and lost badly. So you aren't losing a lot of attack from the backline by doing this swap anyway. 

I'd have to watch again but i'm not sure hibberd had gunston. My sense is Friiter and at times Jetts were on him. Could well be wrong though.

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,089]

6 minutes ago, binman said:

I'd have to watch again but i'm not sure hibberd had gunston. My sense is Friiter and at times Jetts were on him. Could well be wrong though.

Jet was on Bruest and held him goalless 

[binman 37,796]

3 minutes ago, Hell Bent said:

Jet was on Bruest and held him goalless 

Yes. True dat

[rjay 23,869]

48 minutes ago, M_9 said:

Qjartermain said on 3AW this morning that the rumour around WC was that Kennedy was playing on one leg.

Geez, it'd be a bonus if he didn't see out the game.

Yes, Kennedy is on one leg but it's a pretty good leg and he's a very smart footballer.

It's only because it's finals that he's playing...

If Frost is his match up he needs to run off him at every opportunity and make things hard.

[Diamond_Jim 11,679]

jumping forward to the 2019 season it will be an interesting discussion about the best 22.

A couple of weeks ago I was tending towards Fritsch replacing Hannan thus allowing a strengthening of the backline. Hannan has had a very strong finals series and has certainly cemented his spot. The back story for Fritsch is so enjoyable it is impossible not to feel down by his non selection.

Where to put Lever, Fritsch and Hogan... a fascinating problem.

[binman 37,796]

Good analysis of the game - though i reckon he plagiarized me!

(got his tackle stats wrong for WC - 13.5 a game? where's the editing?)

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/west-coast-v-melbourne-preview-the-stats-that-matter-on-road-to-grand-final-20180920-p5051w.html

[The Chazz 4,077]

22 minutes ago, poita said:

I thought last week was the week to bring Smith in, and was surprised to see a change this week.

That said, Fritsch was poor in defence last week and Smith (for all his flaws) is probably a better option overall. I would have dropped Hannan and pushed Fritsch forward, but perhaps Goodwin thinks Fritsch is tired and/or down on confidence. Hannan owes us a couple of goals this week, because he has been ordinary in both finals.

I'm glad Tyson stays in as we need as much midfield depth as possible, and other than last week his form has been pretty good.

I've accepted that Hannan will likely have 6 kicks each week.  Some weeks he'll kick 1 goal and have minimal impact, other weeks he'll kick 3 and have a strong influence on the result.

I'm not in favour of carrying players like this, but I think we do in this case.

 

[drdrake 3,035]

The instruction to OMac and Frost will be lock down on Kennedy and Darling, Smith will play on third tall or Ryan and will be third man up.

This game will be man on man, we weren't happy last week in the way we allowed Hawthorn the uncontested marks.  We have their midfield covered, our forwards have shown all year they are dangerous and can score quickly, we are backing ourselves to go toe to toe with them to get the result.

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 5,789]

3 hours ago, jackaub said:

This has Mistake written all over it

and this puts a lot of pressure on Smith

Dont know haow he was playing for Casey but i was completely underwhelmed when he played in the Demons

not ready in my opinion

Smithy was in the best players before he got injured against Gold Coast, back the lad in, he's a Demon after all.

We're all feeling for Fritta but the kids got a massive future.

#RaiseHell

[Superunknown 3,307]

1 hour ago, buck_nekkid said:

If we were selecting a team on ‘feels’ then Bernie and Pedo would be in the side too.  Best to choose the team that they think is best suited to get it done.

I am not disagreeing with that.

[Gator 16,891]

Smith isn't in for his disposal count, he's in for his speed, size, agression and athletic profile.  He's a manic tackler. He's a better "defender" than Fritsch.  Smith isn't suited to being the second tall, but is a quality third tall. 

His selection also provides versatility.  Smith is 191cm.  He's the same height as Darling.  When Vardy is forward Oscar can take him and Smith has the size and prowess to nullify Darling, while Frost takes Kennedy.

It's all about matchups.  It's a very good selection. 

[Wiseblood 24,636]

3 minutes ago, ProDee said:

Smith isn't in for his disposal count, he's in for his speed, size, agression and athletic profile.  He's a manic tackler. He's a better "defender" than Fritsch.  Smith isn't suited to being the second tall, but is a quality third tall. 

His selection also provides versatility.  Smith is 191cm.  He's the same height as Darling.  When Vardy is forward Oscar can take him and Smith has the size and prowess to nullify Darling, while Frost takes Kennedy.

It's all about matchups.  It's a very good selection. 

Spot on, PD.

His selection is not about what Fritsch doesn't bring to the side, but what Smith is able to do match up wise.  It's not a knock on Fritsch at all, it's more about the size the Eagles have up forward and ensuring we counteract that.  5-6 weeks ago they didn't have Kennedy so Frost and Oscar were enough.  Not this time.

Plus, it allows someone like Hibberd to play a more attacking role off half back, interchanging with Salem and Lewis.  I think it's a smart selection as well.

[dazzledavey36 48,654]

10 minutes ago, drdrake said:

The instruction to OMac and Frost will be lock down on Kennedy and Darling, Smith will play on third tall or Ryan and will be third man up.

This game will be man on man, we weren't happy last week in the way we allowed Hawthorn the uncontested marks.  We have their midfield covered, our forwards have shown all year they are dangerous and can score quickly, we are backing ourselves to go toe to toe with them to get the result.

1. Smith will take Vardy.

2. Salem on Ryan.

3. Jetta on Rioli

And Hibberd will go to LeCras, leaving Lewis as our general quarter role.

Oscar will take Darling who has the endurance levels to keep up with him.

Do not underestimate Josh Kennedy on one leg. Regardless of what the media says, he is a bona fide star forward and this will be one Frost biggest challange ever. Shut him and limit their forward supply entrie and we'll win the game.

Just on Joel Smith in regards to a few comments on him coming into our side on the back of 6 disposals at VFL level.

I will absolutely bet every single dollar that Goodwin and McCartney could not give a flying [censored] about how many disposals he gets. If he comes out of tomorrow's game will 1 handball and shuts down Vardy then his done his role in my eyes and the coaches.

Hes not there to win 20 plus possessions off a half back. Thats why we have Lewis, Salem and Hibbo down there doing that because they are our best distributors, and Smith's role will be to defend first, and then attack 2nd by offering a bit of run but also getting the ball into these guys hands.

He is still pretty raw, but he also shows fantastic defensive traits and power with his speed and tackling.

It's no wonder he is so highly rated by our coaching staff. 

The biggest test for him will be not to be overawed by the occasion.  Backing him all the way!

Good luck Joel!

[Superunknown 3,307]

Is this stat correct (source: The Age match preview):

Melbourne are competition trendsetters for tackles in 2018, averaging 70.7 per match; West Coast rank 15th with just 13.3 per game

 

West Coast are, on average, 14.35 tackes PER QUARTER worse than Melbourne? That's about 1 tackle every 90s to 2 minutes?

That is a lot of extra pressure (it seems to me, anyway)

[drdrake 3,035]

The instruction to Frost will be try a blow Kennedy up, first cover him deep one on one then run off him and make him chase you.  If the ball gets to ground Frost has the potential to expose Kennedy

[DSP 1,488]

5 minutes ago, -Ⓥ- said:

Is this stat correct (source: The Age match preview):

Melbourne are competition trendsetters for tackles in 2018, averaging 70.7 per match; West Coast rank 15th with just 13.3 per game

 

West Coast are, on average, 14.35 tackes PER QUARTER worse than Melbourne? That's about 1 tackle every 90s to 2 minutes?

That is a lot of extra pressure (it seems to me, anyway)

According to AFL, they avg 60.6 (15th) per game vs us at 70.7 (1st)

Edited September 21, 2018 by DSP

[Jaded No More 57,682]

7 minutes ago, binman said:

I'd have to watch again but i'm not sure hibberd had gunston. My sense is Friiter and at times Jetts were on him. Could well be wrong though.

Hibbo definitely was on him in a few contests. The point stands that he nearly won them the game. Our biggest vulnerability is our defence, we know this. Fritsch is not a true shut down defender, so in terms of bringing in Smith, it was an absolute must.

You could argue that Tyson should have been dropped instead, but Tyson has actually done a good job these past two weeks, and is a contested ball winner. We know how important that is to our game plan, and it is where we've won the past two weeks. Tomorrow is no different. 

[Wiseblood 24,636]

12 minutes ago, dazzledavey36 said:

1. Smith will take Vardy.

I reckon there is a good chance Smith plays on Darling, and Oscar takes the resting ruck with Frost on Kennedy.  Just my two cents, but I think Smith could be the perfect match up size wise and pace wise for Darling.

[dazzledavey36 48,654]

3 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

I reckon there is a good chance Smith plays on Darling, and Oscar takes the resting ruck with Frost on Kennedy.  Just my two cents, but I think Smith could be the perfect match up size wise and pace wise for Darling.

I didn't realise they were the same height until Pro mentioned it.

My only worry is Darling might be too strong for Smith one on one. But im backing our defenders to give him a chop out and also think Smith athleticism will match right up to Darling.

On a side note good to see you back mate! I was starting to get worried that i might not find anyone one to reduce my ANB melts from time to time ??