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Hogan2014

Missed opportunities on these numbers!

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Posted (edited)

You need to grab the opportunity when it presents itself as it’s clear they should be in the top 4 not fighting to stay in the 8 . Let’s hope they haven’t missed a golden chance!

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Edited by Hogan2014
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It's funny that our strength is our ruck/midfield dominance/ability to clear the ball forward, yet we love to play a lose behind play somewhat limiting our dominance by allowing the opposition to outnumber us in our forward line.

If i was a coach i would be evening the numbers up in our forward line most of the time, to give our dominance the best chance to be successful (i.e., quick tap to a midfielder at a center bounce and long kick long to an even numbered forward line).

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6 minutes ago, Wunders said:

It's funny that our strength is our ruck/midfield dominance/ability to clear the ball forward, yet we love to play a lose behind play somewhat limiting our dominance by allowing the opposition to outnumber us in our forward line.

If i was a coach i would be evening the numbers up in our forward line most of the time, to give our dominance the best chance to be successful (i.e., quick tap to a midfielder at a center bounce and long kick long to an even numbered forward line).

I'd be playing a small defensive forward line and kicking grubbers, then locking it in for another stoppage, where our dominant ruckman and great clearance players get to go again.

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1 hour ago, Chook said:

I'd be playing a small defensive forward line and kicking grubbers, then locking it in for another stoppage, where our dominant ruckman and great clearance players get to go again.

At least that way an intercept defender wouldn’t keep chopping us off in the air!

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Posted (edited)

STOP LONG BOMBS AND CONVERT SET SHOTS!!!!

 

 

 

 

Sorry to shout.

Edited by Moonshadow
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The spare defensively is probably because we tend to turn the ball over a lot and get scored easily on the counter attack.

Also if we lose clearances we get scored against too easily. 

If we can fix that, well....

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24 minutes ago, Unleash Hell said:

The spare defensively is probably because we tend to turn the ball over a lot and get scored easily on the counter attack.

Also if we lose clearances we get scored against too easily. 

If we can fix that, well....

Everyone we play knows the stats and they put a spare back.  We don’t want 7 on 7 in our forward line so end up with 6 on 7 with our defence basically 6 on 5.  Result is crowded Melbourne forward line and open backline.  Harder for us to score and harder to defend.

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Can't help noticing that with each stat there is a true bottom-level club in the top few. That'd be the 'with a grain of salt' reminder. But to be so strong on multiple important stats and still failing...

If we are playing with stats, worth also mentioning that are third (as in third worst) for clangers per game, 17th for rebound 50s, and 18th (as in worst) for 'least opponent rebound 50s'.

We also have the most tackles against us, so the truth of that stat is sumply that we have games with an awful lot of tackles by both sides.

Long statistical story short, our games are mostly mad scrambles and when we get the upper hand we can rapidly blow teams away, and when we are overwhelmed we get smashed.

It's like two bulls fighting, balanced on a pole.

I'm kind of heartened by the thought of what will happen when we get the upper hand just that little bit more, and that little bit more often. This also makes sense of our problem battling the other quality teams. Hell, we could end up climbing the ladder almost directly according to the the list of teams we are better than.

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6 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Can't help noticing that with each stat there is a true bottom-level club in the top few. That'd be the 'with a grain of salt' reminder. But to be so strong on multiple important stats and still failing...

If we are playing with stats, worth also mentioning that are third (as in third worst) for clangers per game, 17th for rebound 50s, and 18th (as in worst) for 'least opponent rebound 50s'.

We also have the most tackles against us, so the truth of that stat is sumply that we have games with an awful lot of tackles by both sides.

Long statistical story short, our games are mostly mad scrambles and when we get the upper hand we can rapidly blow teams away, and when we are overwhelmed we get smashed.

It's like two bulls fighting, balanced on a pole.

I'm kind of heartened by the thought of what will happen when we get the upper hand just that little bit more, and that little bit more often. This also makes sense of our problem battling the other quality teams. Hell, we could end up climbing the ladder almost directly according to the the list of teams we are better than.

Excellent analysis Little Goffy. I agree that we are doing much right but also have deficiencies which we will improve when our core group becomes more experienced.

I am still quite confident we will win one of our next two games and play finals

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Wunders said:

It's funny that our strength is our ruck/midfield dominance/ability to clear the ball forward, yet we love to play a lose behind play somewhat limiting our dominance by allowing the opposition to outnumber us in our forward line.

If i was a coach i would be evening the numbers up in our forward line most of the time, to give our dominance the best chance to be successful (i.e., quick tap to a midfielder at a center bounce and long kick long to an even numbered forward line).

So, could this ridiculous 6-6-6 knee jerk reaction by Big Chief Knee Jerk Gillon actually help us, against our will?

1 hour ago, Moonshadow said:

STOP LONG BOMBS AND CONVERT SET SHOTS!!!!

 

 

 

 

Sorry to shout.

Moonshadow - can we nominate you for coach?  

It is quite clear that nobody on our coaching panel or in our leadership group have ever even considered this simple solution to all our woes, otherwise they would have put it in to action and have it executed perfectly and precisely.

Please forward it to Mr Goodwin.

Edited by monoccular
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10 minutes ago, monoccular said:

Moonshadow - can we nominate you for coach?  

It is quite clear that nobody on our coaching panel or in our leadership group have ever even considered this simple solution to all our woes, otherwise they would have put it in to action and have it executed perfectly and precisely.

Please forward it to Mr Goodwin.

I am Simon Goodwin.

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9 hours ago, Moonshadow said:

I am Simon Goodwin.

Nah you're not that slow.

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13 hours ago, Wunders said:

It's funny that our strength is our ruck/midfield dominance/ability to clear the ball forward, yet we love to play a lose behind play somewhat limiting our dominance by allowing the opposition to outnumber us in our forward line.

If i was a coach i would be evening the numbers up in our forward line most of the time, to give our dominance the best chance to be successful (i.e., quick tap to a midfielder at a center bounce and long kick long to an even numbered forward line).

Bang on.

I think I wrote something similar on here recently.

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13 hours ago, Wunders said:

It's funny that our strength is our ruck/midfield dominance/ability to clear the ball forward, yet we love to play a lose behind play somewhat limiting our dominance by allowing the opposition to outnumber us in our forward line.

If i was a coach i would be evening the numbers up in our forward line most of the time, to give our dominance the best chance to be successful (i.e., quick tap to a midfielder at a center bounce and long kick long to an even numbered forward line).

 

3 minutes ago, Clint Bizkit said:

Bang on.

I think I wrote something similar on here recently.

Good points, one I hadn't thought of. So basically we are being negative when we should be going for the jugular. 

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Wunders said:

It's funny that our strength is our ruck/midfield dominance/ability to clear the ball forward

That hasn't been our strength against the 'smart' teams this year. 

For example, #hitouts and #clearances in isolation show we dominate (most of the time).  But to measure the team's effectiveness from ruck contests the ratio of clearances/hitout gives a clearer picture.  Against the teams that have convincingly beaten us this year (and happen to be the only ones above us on the ladder) this is what that measure shows:

Total Team Clearances to Total Own Ruck Hitouts:

image.png.d6e724900beacf72e3742f9953ca7224.png

A very consistent pattern emerges.  It is saying the 'smart' teams don't worry about winning the hitouts but rove to Max better than us, so neutralise our greatest asset.  The Coll ratio is closer because they had Grundy to neutralise Max nonetheless they still roved to Max better than us.

The difficulty with raw stats is it is just data until it is used in a meaningful measure of effectiveness.  Champion Data (and the media) rarely do that.  So conclusions are often drawn on 'Total' this or 'Total' that which can be skewed by a handful of good games. 

So I would say we have taken our opportunities against the bottom half of the ladder where the stats in the op are most pronounced.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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In the spirit of sharing stats. I saw the attached on an afl page which showed the ave median games played over the 20 rounds.

I think we as a group tend to get caught up on stats and issues and lose focus that this team has a lot of growing to do. And in comparison to other teams theyve done pretty well.

Do i want them to do better this year.. obviously. Have they shot themselves in the foot? Yes.

But lets take a step back from time to time and look at the big picture.

 

FB_IMG_1534379832342.jpg

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Unleash Hell said:

In the spirit of sharing stats. I saw the attached on an afl page which showed the ave median games played over the 20 rounds.

I think we as a group tend to get caught up on stats and issues and lose focus that this team has a lot of growing to do. And in comparison to other teams theyve done pretty well.

Do i want them to do better this year.. obviously. Have they shot themselves in the foot? Yes.

But lets take a step back from time to time and look at the big picture.

 

FB_IMG_1534379832342.jpg

Sorry to be pedantic but is that a table of the 'Average' or the 'Median'?  They can paint quite a different picture as the Average is easily skewed.   (I don't think it is statistically possible to have an average median, is it...?)

I'm not suggesting we are not relatively young and have a lot of growing to do - would just like to understand what that table refers to.  Cheers.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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The post wrote

Average median games played for all 20 games this season

Feel free to interpret as you wish @Lucifer's Hero, its no skin off my nose

 

For me it just backed up my thinking that this team has a lot of development left and that the more exposure to big games now the better.

 

Suns and Geelong are interesting as well on that ladder

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Sorry to be pedantic but is that a table of the 'Average' or the 'Median'?  They can paint quite a different picture as the Average is easily skewed.   (I don't think it is statistically possible to have an average median, is it...?)

I'm not suggesting we are not relatively young and have a lot of growing to do - would just like to understand what that table refers to.  Cheers.

I think it originally came from here 

From the comments, it looks like the median games experience from each game then average by 20.

Edited by DemonWorshipper
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4 hours ago, DemonWorshipper said:

I think it originally came from here 

From the comments, it looks like the median games experience from each game then average by 20.

This

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22 hours ago, Chook said:

I'd be playing a small defensive forward line and kicking grubbers, then locking it in for another stoppage, where our dominant ruckman and great clearance players get to go again.

As high kicks into the f50 have been repeatedly marked by the oppo in the last 2 weeks, I expect I haven't been the only one who has been shouting "kick a grubber".  At least that gives us a 50% chance at minimum. 

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5 hours ago, DemonWorshipper said:

I think it originally came from here 

From the comments, it looks like the median games experience from each game then average by 20.

Gen Y here with a 21st century maths education. Can you explain what the [censored] that means? lol

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, praha said:

Gen Y here with a 21st century maths education. Can you explain what the [censored] that means? lol

It means the twitter person 'Sgt Pepper.....' (aka the 'data scientist') doesn't know what he is talking about or is being a smart alec to impress his followers. 

That aside, 'Unleash Hells' point that we are a relatively inexperienced side with a bit of growing to do is valid.

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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