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gregdemon

surprised at odds

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Posted (edited)

Hola from Spain

Cmon Dees supporters get on board, no more of this they let us down time and time again billtish, it’s time to believe & let the footy team know we believe in them.

If we finish top 4 & get Viney & Hibberd back lookout, this is the start of new era

Edited by Billy

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23 hours ago, The Chazz said:

$7 for us to miss the Top 8.  Load up on that, and if we win, then monitor other results from the weekend (if North and Geelong both win), and load up again the following weekend when we will be double figures.

If we lose this week, we'll be in to odds-on to miss the 8.

I see it as a form of payment for my MFCSS prescription.

 

 I like ypur thinking. I do this. Its called therapy. Wayne carey said this week mfc will be scary in coming years. I suscribe to that theory also and belive dees will win big agaonst a team that hasn't kicked more than 70ish points for mearly 2 months. 

Oliver gawn brayshaw Tyson hogan etc won't allow it.

Hun5s forst big run will be the crowd favourite and welcome back.

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14 hours ago, Billy said:

Hola from Spain

Cmon Dees supporters get on board, no more of this they let us down time and time again billtish, it’s time to believe & let the footy team know we believe in them.

If we finish top 4 & get Viney & Hibberd back lookout, this is the start of new era

You're on. What are the odds?

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On 8/10/2018 at 1:33 PM, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

And neither do the bookies' computers. I expect setting the odds these days has very little, if any, human involvement. I assume that the computer's algorithm calculates the odds based on the flow and holding of money on each contingency and varies the odds automatically as required.

Not quite right - though pretty close.

Human employees at the bookies set the opening price (for win and line bets - all the stupid exotic bets probably are computer generated). Well it is probably more accurate these days to sign of on the price - so to speak- as there probably is a computer based starting point based on their data set. And then adjust the price. This is true of horse racing and sports betting. 

But yes after that point the market determines the price (and the bookie take their commission). Which is why the starting odd for any given game of AFL are the most accurate predictor of the outcome. Which of course does not mean the outcome of any given game always reflects the odds. But over the course of a season, say, the odds are proven accurate.

We should be short favorites against the Swans. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Mr Steve said:

Dee's getting shorter by the hour. Swans out to $3.15 

That is insane. Or is there something going on we don't know about.

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I hate these odds. Hate them. 

I never want to go in favourite. Unless Buddy is a late out, there is zero reason for these insane overinflated odds. 

Has anyone looked at our record against Sydney, or in fact any good side?

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Drifted out to 3.30, we’ve firmed to 1.37

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On 8/11/2018 at 8:43 AM, Tough Kent said:

I enjoy a punt on the nags, not so much the footy. How anyone can back against their side, regardless of the odds is beyond me.

Head vs Heart, Kenty.  And to be honest, it helps deal with the disappointment if we fail.

That said, if you weren't a Melbourne supporter, having a bet on us to miss the 8 at those odds is smart punting.  We have a hard run home, we have very recent history of crumbling, and plain and simply, we haven't shown any reason this season that we can be trusted in the games we have in our run home.

 

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2 hours ago, radar said:

Drifted out to 3.30, we’ve firmed to 1.37

Amazing considering we are without Lever, Viney, Hibberd and Melk.

Swans only missing Zak Jones.

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Easiest money anyone ever made, who jumped on us missing the 8 that will come right in now 

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Sadly I collected on my bet on the Swans

I presume that I'll also collect on the bets I put on MFC missing the 8 in a few weeks.

.

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1 hour ago, brendan said:

Easiest money anyone ever made, who jumped on us missing the 8 that will come right in now 

$3.30 for the Swans and $7 to miss the 8 lol

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sadlynI just colleded my $30 for a 10 buck bet.   Hoped I would not but at least it paid for my food etc at the game.   Saw it coming a mile off  unfortunately.   Was hoping I was going to be wrong.     Maybe a win against the odds next week.      They have done it to me again. Should be used to it....  but I am not.     Real chance against GWS at MCG with their injuries.

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