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Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 20

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56 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

my thinking exactly DD.

Perhaps it's time to take a risk.

I would take the risk.

Joel Smith in my opinion will be a great talent once he gets more experience and education. But he's very very shaky at times and I fear that hes still a deer in the headlights, especially now that we need to win crucial games. Let him develope the rest of the year at Casey and let's focus on him having a being 2019 pre season injury free.

I just feel Jayden Hunt can be an x factor for us come finals time. His speed and ability to break the lines is something we've missed from him this year.

 

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, deanox said:

 

Ok @Brownie is the Chris Sullivan line the min lead required at 3/4 time (which would be 42) OR the min lead required at some point in the last (which would be 48+).

@Supermercadowill know as I'm pretty sure he coined the term!

The Chris Sullivan Line (newcomers - refer first goal, last quarter Round 6, 1992) is a 48 point margin at three quarter time. That factors in 47 as being the biggest lead I've ever seen us blow during the last quarter, so theoretically if we start 48 in front there is no earthly way we can lose. For symmetry, 47 is also the furthest down we've been behind during a last quarter before winning (Round 9, 1977).

There's no official Duckworth Lewis Method to tell you when to be comfortable once the last quarter begins. The 2013 Bulldogs game where we were 42 points up 15 minutes into the last quarter and only won by three nearly redefined the entire process. That night I also found a dead mouse under my seat.

Edited by Supermercado
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14 hours ago, DV8 said:

hmmn, 50+ Yrs ago...

We need to find another recipe for success, because the culture we've used, has failed us for sooooo long.

Very probably correct - and win the favour of umpires. At the coin toss before the match starts, our Captain should hand out doughnuts and coffee to the umpires? Sweets? Tell them a stunning joke? Just be super polite?

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Posted (edited)

I feel comfortable at 27 points up, when it's below that there's uneasiness.

  • vs Crows from Q4 2:02 when Galucci goaled we were <27 ahead
  • vs Geelong from Q4 4:08 when Hawkins goaled we were <27 ahead

As posted above, in the last 4 minutes it's a goal per minute threshold.

Edited by Fifty-5
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59 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Very probably correct - and win the favour of umpires. At the coin toss before the match starts, our Captain should hand out doughnuts and coffee to the umpires? Sweets? Tell them a stunning joke? Just be super polite?

Actaully Dms56, I think we NEED the rough edges.....  as it inspires that old adrenaline in the crowd !   and the umpires,,, well they just follow the crowd.

Being sickly polite is whats killed us for a half a century.

 

Northey instilled an aggression into our players that got US close.....   but he didn't instill that into OUR crowd. 

 

And some of Our crowd were embarrassed by too much aggression.  This IS the Curse.

Our own embarrassment of aggression.... &  in your face aggression.  is what got Norm,,, and what got us... all of this time.

 

We became so conservative, we lost that,  'Checker and Smith',  'Fire and Brimstone'.

And it was this soft attitude that sacked Smithy... The beginning of the end wasn't Smithy, it was the attitude that had taken over again that sacked Smith.

It was Percy and Checker whom imported the fire and brimstone To Melbournefc, who were a conservative club, up till they arrived.

 

With the world change in the 60's,,, and throughout world sport... we went the other way, deep into our conservative-ness behind the scenes.

We did not move ahead, in-sync with the world.

 

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21 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

I feel comfortable at 27 points up, when it's below that there's uneasiness.

  • vs Crows from Q4 2:02 when Galucci goaled we were <27 ahead
  • vs Geelong from Q4 4:08 when Hawkins goaled we were <27 ahead

As posted above, in the last 4 minutes it's a goal per minute threshold.

fascinating psychology:

Why when we are five goals down at 3/4 time do most of us give up while when we are five goals up the same percentage fear defeat.

I'm sure Socrates once posed the same question in the Athenian Agora to the Pelopenesian footy squad.

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2 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

fascinating psychology:

Why when we are five goals down at 3/4 time do most of us give up while when we are five goals up the same percentage fear defeat.

I'm sure Socrates once posed the same question in the Athenian Agora to the Pelopenesian footy squad.

The equations above work in reverse for me too.  If we are within 27 points or within a goal a minute in the last 4 minutes we're a chance.

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23 minutes ago, DV8 said:

Actaully Dms56, I think we NEED the rough edges.....  as it inspires that old adrenaline in the crowd !   and the umpires,,, well they just follow the crowd.

Being sickly polite is whats killed us for a half a century.

 

Northey instilled an aggression into our players that got US close.....   but he didn't instill that into OUR crowd. 

 

And some of Our crowd were embarrassed by too much aggression.  This IS the Curse.

Our own embarrassment of aggression.... &  in your face aggression.  is what got Norm,,, and what got us... all of this time.

 

We became so conservative, we lost that,  'Checker and Smith',  'Fire and Brimstone'.

And it was this soft attitude that sacked Smithy... The beginning of the end wasn't Smithy, it was the attitude that had taken over again that sacked Smith.

It was Percy and Checker whom imported the fire and brimstone To Melbournefc, who were a conservative club, up till they arrived.

 

With the world change in the 60's,,, and throughout world sport... we went the other way, deep into our conservative-ness behind the scenes.

We did not move ahead, in-sync with the world.

 

You betcha, correct, correct, correct. Aggression is the key up to a point, toughness is even more. My little post before this one was more of a joke or jest at creating friends with umpires who can/do interfere with our games to our detriment in the recent past. That is why I'd like to see our team full of bulls, hitt'em hard-types, no mercies or apologies, see ball-get ball and use it, knock the sheet outta 'em. Do it, move ahead, as you say. 

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49 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

fascinating psychology:

Why when we are five goals down at 3/4 time do most of us give up while when we are five goals up the same percentage fear defeat.

I'm sure Socrates once posed the same question in the Athenian Agora to the Pelopenesian footy squad.

He coached the Spartans in a long and distinguished career and they never lost a game when 27 points up in the last quarter.

He only addressed the Pelopenesian team as a favour to their coach Aristotle, after an annoying run of close defeats.

 

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17 hours ago, DemonWheels said:

Trac was holding his shoulder and looked in a bit of pain during the last game (for a 10 min period) so maybe that’s why he’s named on the bench? Can’t imagine any other reason why as he’s in good form - might choose to rest him.

advertised bench positions are meaningless

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8 hours ago, jnrmac said:

it's a shortcut rather than a bug.   A C and a colan will give you an emoticon 

It was actually a spelling mistake. I meant to spell it Bugg, as an argument he still has a role to play in the team(sheet). 

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Posted (edited)

I am concerned about this game tbh. 

With all the Lynch crap going on this week at the GC and all the talk about the team being irrelevant I don’t think this will be a walk over as some are thinking. 

This ain’t gunna be an easy game imo. 

We would normally drop this type of game so will be interesting to see if we have improved in this area. 

Edited by DemonOX
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Posted (edited)

What i'm really looking for this round is for us to come out switched on and keep it up for 4 quarters. We showed up for the first 10 minutes against the Saints then hit the snooze button, and we all know what happened in round 23 last year (thinking it would just happen for us).

This is our 'easier' game for the rest of the season, we need to be merciless, run ourselves into some good form for the final month and bank some more percentage. If this group truly mean business, this will get ugly for the Suns.

Edited by Demon Disciple
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1 minute ago, DemonOX said:

I am concerned about this game tbh. 

With all the Lynch crap going on this week at the GC and all the talk about the team being irrelevant I don’t think this is will be a walk over as some are thinking. 

This ain’t gunna be an easy game imo. 

We would normally drop this type of game so will be interesting to see if we have improved in this area. 

I’d normally agree DO but GC are done, we will wipe the floor with them. 

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1 minute ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

I’d normally agree DO but GC are done, we will wipe the floor with them. 

Hope u r right Ethan. Time will tell. 

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6 hours ago, ProDee said:

vandenBerg strikes me as a player who could make us better if he hits his straps. He had a limited preseason when he first came to us, so his only full preseason was prior to the 2016 season.  I also don't know when this most recent injury occurred.  Could it have affected his form in 2016 prior to post season surgery ?  I don't know the answer, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was a little lame. 

At 26 his body may be in the best nick it's been in since he came to the club. 

I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do. 

I'm absolutely convinced this is the case. I attended the 2016 preseason match vs. Port and maintain that AVB looked ready to bust the competition open with the body strength and presence of a dominant CHF. A revelation.

Then I think he first tweaked his ankle vs. the Bulldogs in the next JLT (after showing strong form again) and went on to miss some matches with it after the first few games of the season. Was a shade of what I saw in the preseason.

But if he can get back to where I thought he was going we're going to have an absolute freebie (and some structure/selection issues - being that his best position/skill-set sits somewhere between Tmac and Hogan and Tyson and Melksham). 

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Everyone seems to focus on hunts form before his injury, i have no inside knowledge but would put money on that he was trying to play through something. His speed and agility were severely hampered. I think there is more than one role in the team hunt can play, his kicking out of the back line can sometimes hurt but when we were in trouble last year he was often thrown forward and provided a spark as well as forward pressure. His speed allows him to close space in our press and close down 60/40 passes.

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One change - In Vanders out Melky.

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Goodwin's final message before the players' run out is to not think it is just going to happen, they need to make it happen.

Maybe remind them that should we qualify for the finals, everyone needs to earn their position.

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Posted (edited)

For anyone that cares:

 

INS-  Ah Chee, Spencer, Hanley, Leslie, Dawson

OUTS - Thompson, May, Swallow, Lyons, Joyce.

Fair to say that's quite a net loss from the Suns. Hanley's a good player, Ah Chee's ok but who are the other 3??

Edited by Bring-Back-Powell

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20 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

I’d normally agree DO but GC are done, we will wipe the floor with them. 

Agree absolutely Ethan and if we don't, as I stated above, we're kidding ourselves ……………. again.

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10 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

For anyone that cares:

 

INS-  Ah Chee, Spencer, Hanley, Leslie, Dawson

OUTS - Thompson, May, Swallow, Lyons, Joyce.

Fair to say that's quite a net loss from the Suns. Hanley's a good player, Ah Chee's ok but who are the other 3??

The 3 unknowns will probably star for GC!!

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2 hours ago, daisycutter said:

advertised bench positions are meaningless

That's a shame, I was going to buy one - thought that it would be a great perspective from which to see the game.

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3 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

That's a shame, I was going to buy one - thought that it would be a great perspective from which to see the game.

nah....good for the gossip, tweets, gun pics and selfies, but lousy spot to watch game

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