Match Preview and Team Selection - Round 20

[binman 37,782]

1 hour ago, BigFez said:

No way Trac and ANB miss, so we have Kent, Hunt, Pederson, Spargo, J. Smith, T. Smith fighting for two spots.

Reckon J Smith stays, but is on notice with Hunt coming straight into the squad.

Spargo or Kent to fight for the last spot.

Just saw this post (honest). My thoughts exactly (see above)

[jnrmac 18,914]

7 hours ago, MSFebey said:

Sydney were 29 points up before GC rolled them and were playing very well, then GC shut them down and applied pressure. I'm not assuming an easy win here.

Hmmm we were 29 pts up against Geelong and 29 pts up against Adelaide both in the last quarter. If I am reading you correctly we need to be more than 29 pts ahead going into the last....

[SFebes 4,692]

3 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Hmmm we were 29 pts up against Geelong and 29 pts up against Adelaide both in the last quarter. If I am reading you correctly we need to be more than 29 pts ahead going into the last....

Until we prove otherwise I'll be nervous if we are not 40 up at 3/4 time!

[WERRIDEE 5,198]

17 minutes ago, binman said:

Yep, no chance either of them get dropped.

I suspect they might bring Kent in for Spargo. He has been terrific Spargo but is young and they might want an older, hardened forward for finals and if they are thinking Kent they will want to get some games into him.

I wonder also if Hunt might be some chance to come in for Smith? Probably not as not like for like, they will want to reward players for winning, if Kent comes in that's already two changes and he is improving each week. Super athletic and plays tall. I've convinced myself. He stays 

No chance Hunt plays he hasn't played a VFL game yet. I'm only expecting the one change that's Vanders for Milkshake. Kent emergency to keep Spargo on his toes.

[titan_uranus 22,220]

Not a bad extended bench.

I'd be leaving the changes to just the one (AVB for Melksham), but I could accept Kent returning for Spargo.

[Lucifers Hero 36,983]

VdB may take some time to adjust to AFL footy again but the aggression at the ball and the ball carrier that he brings is phenomenal - second only to JV in my book. 

VdB's contested ball work will help keep the ball in our fwd 50 and make us a better 'forward half team'.  Wouldn't be surprised to see fewer i50's simply because he doesn't let the ball out!

Edited August 2, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[loges 6,002]

1 hour ago, pinkshark said:

If the coaching staff don't replay the 30 odd point win we had over Brissy late last season when we were up by much more then they should all be sacked for incompetence.  Show the collingwood game as well.  Each week for the next four weeks in fact.  These two debacles cost us.

Pretty sure we were up by 30 and only won by a couple of goals.

[layzie 28,514]

8 hours ago, Jones said:

People saying they will just be happy with the 4 points for this game ... no! We need to win and we need to win BIG. Anything under 10 goals not acceptable in my eyes.

We have a tough last 3 weeks with key players out. We could lose all 3, but I'm thinking we will win 1 game of the 3 which could see us sneak into finals on % only.

If we are to lose the other 2 out of 3 games our % will drop. Teams around us have an easier run home where their % will build. Look for example at Geelong who we are neck & neck with. Their last 2 games are Freo & GC at GMHBA. North also have some easy games coming up (Brisb, Dogs & Saints).

We need to take this game and use it to our advantage. We must smash GC on our home turf and set ourselves up for the next 3 weeks. A 5 goal win just won't do it. Are we serious for crying out loud? I hope this game doesn't have vs. Brisbane R22 2017 about it.

And when we lose in a shock result trust me you would have taken just the 4 points! ?

In all seriousness I see what people are saying. We do have to win and win well but let’s get the job done first and if we get a lead then we go for the kill. 

[grey wolf 226]

Great to see Vanders back if only to increase the number of “depth” players with recent experience in the ones.. so Kent for Spargo, and Hunt for JSmith at least ... we need 30 live ones going forward at the start of the finals

[Engorged Onion 9,237]

17 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

VdB may take some time to adjust to AFL footy again but the aggression at the ball and the ball carrier that he brings is phenomenal - second only to JV in my book. 

VdB's contested ball work will help keep the ball in our fwd 50 and make us a better 'forward half team'.  Wouldn't be surprised to see fewer i50's simply because he doesn't let the ball out!

methinks we are playing a glorified VFL side - who just happen to be playing in the top tier...

[dl4e 5,581]

This has to be a percentage booster.

[Earl Hood 5,787]

22 minutes ago, grey wolf said:

Great to see Vanders back if only to increase the number of “depth” players with recent experience in the ones.. so Kent for Spargo, and Hunt for JSmith at least ... we need 30 live ones going forward at the start of the finals

If we go by today’s training I would say barring injury,  Kent is not in as he left the track early. Hunt hasn’t played a game yet after his return from injury so needs time surely? Of the extended bench maybe Pedo is still in running for a position. He was still training hard with the other backs and forwards toward the end. Let’s wait and see. My bet is one change. 

[deanox 8,516]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Hmmm we were 29 pts up against Geelong and 29 pts up against Adelaide both in the last quarter. If I am reading you correctly we need to be more than 29 pts ahead going into the last....

 

1 hour ago, MSFebey said:

Until we prove otherwise I'll be nervous if we are not 40 up at 3/4 time!

Basically the Chris Sullivan line then?

[SFebes 4,692]

Just now, deanox said:

 

Basically the Chris Sullivan line then?

Have seen this a few times Deano, what am I missing with Sullivan? Spark my memory mate

[pinkshark 935]

58 minutes ago, loges said:

Pretty sure we were up by 30 and only won by a couple of goals.

I think you're right.  Either way, makes the blood boil still.

[What 18,810]

Gold Coast lose their two key defenders and Swallow.  

We should be looking for  a 120+ point win here.   No mercy.

[Brownie 5,127]

1 hour ago, MSFebey said:

Until we prove otherwise I'll be nervous if we are not 40 up at 3/4 time!

Chris sullivan line to be sure = 43

[deanox 8,516]

4 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

Have seen this a few times Deano, what am I missing with Sullivan? Spark my memory mate

Some in the football community subscribe to the goals per minute theory: as long as there are more minutes than goals you can still win (or lose). It's a reasonable assessment for the last 1-4 minutes,  but longer than that time period you need a better measure.

That's where the Chris Sullivan Line comes in. Basically, we aren't assured the win unless we are 48+ points up at some time within the past quarter.

http://demonwiki.org/Round+6+1992

Chris Sullivan kicked the first goal of the last quarter to put us to 47 in the lead. No need for two guesses what happened next. 

I'm not sure if it's the worst last quarter lead lost ever,  but pretty sure it's ours. 

[Winners at last 4,687]

Good on avb coming back. But really ... he's not that good. I saw a lot of his matches ... he's an OK player but hardly the second coming !!! 

ps.   ?   I have adopted brace position in anticipation of the responses to this post !! 

[Brownie 5,127]

10 minutes ago, MSFebey said:

Have seen this a few times Deano, what am I missing with Sullivan? Spark my memory mate

http://demonwiki.org/Round+6+1992

[deanox 8,516]

4 minutes ago, Brownie said:

Chris sullivan line to be sure = 43

 

2 minutes ago, deanox said:

Some in the football community subscribe to the goals per minute theory: as long as there are more minutes than goals you can still win (or lose). It's a reasonable assessment for the last 1-4 minutes,  but longer than that time period you need a better measure.

That's where the Chris Sullivan Line comes in. Basically, we aren't assured the win unless we are 48+ points up at some time within the past quarter.

http://demonwiki.org/Round+6+1992

Chris Sullivan kicked the first goal of the last quarter to put us to 47 in the lead. No need for two guesses what happened next. 

I'm not sure if it's the worst last quarter lead lost ever,  but pretty sure it's ours. 

Thanks Brownie, I might have the 47 wrong,  will need confirmation!

[Vineytime 783]

Just now, bingers said:

Good on avb coming back. But really ... he's not that good. I saw a lot of his matches ... he's an OK player but hardly the second coming !!! 

ps.   ?   I have adopted brace position in anticipation of the responses to this post !! 

An accurate opinion in my view.

[deanox 8,516]

20 minutes ago, Brownie said:

Chris sullivan line to be sure = 43

 

15 minutes ago, deanox said:

 

Thanks Brownie, I might have the 47 wrong,  will need confirmation!

Ok @Brownie is the Chris Sullivan line the min lead required at 3/4 time (which would be 42) OR the min lead required at some point in the last (which would be 48+).

@Supermercadowill know as I'm pretty sure he coined the term!

[DemonWheels 961]

Trac was holding his shoulder and looked in a bit of pain during the last game (for a 10 min period) so maybe that’s why he’s named on the bench? Can’t imagine any other reason why as he’s in good form - might choose to rest him.

[Mazer Rackham 14,968]

2 hours ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Good to see coaches have shown faith in Tyson and JKH by keeping them in the starting 22.  Would be a real boost to their confidence.

They are both getting more and more into games.  The more continuity our players get the better now that we are getting to the pointy end of the season.

Goodwin has raised eyebrows with his game day coaching but he has really shown something with his ability to draw performances out of players over time. ANB, JKH, Harmes, Hunt, Hannan, Fritsch. In another time, or at another club, they would not have got a game or their cards would have been marked already. Goodwin has a way of showing faith and getting rewarded for it.

Go Demons!