There is a role for Bugg

[Watson11 1,880]

2 hours ago, Rogue said:

Name 10 players who significantly improved their kicking after they hit 25. I'll wait

They don't even need to be current players. Choose from anyone who's played in the last 10 years.

...or even the past 20 years, although I reckon that if you're going back very far then I think you've proven my point.

NB: Guys like Boyd, who said they found it easier to effectively dispose of the footy when they moved to a position where they were under less pressure - ie. from mid to HBF - don't count.

I rate Bugg.  I think we have a strong list and he can't break back in because he is behind others but a few more injuries and we'll need him.  But Buggs disposal efficiency overall (except this year) is pretty good but his goalkicking is average.  Look at his career stats and he is consistently above 70% in DE (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pc-melbourne-demons--tomas-bugg?advv=Y)

Players can fix their goalkicking yips no matter their age.  I don't have time to give you 10 but a few obvious players who have improved with age.

Dane Swan butchered the ball early in his career.  Pre 2010 (up to age 25) had 4 out of 6 seasons with <50% goal kicking conversion. Post 2010 only dropped below 50% once.

Lindsay Thomas had a bad case of the goal-kicking yips early in his career.  In 2011 when he was 23 he kicked 21.36.  He kicked 51.23 in 2013 when he was 25.  From 24 years of age on he fixed his issues and had really good conversion rates.

Buddy Franklin.  From age 20-25 his goal kicking conversion rate was only 60% or more once.  Since age 26 it has only been below 60% once. 

 

 

[Willmoy1947 3,758]

I think our style of play now is more conducive to Bugg being in the team, as a forward, as not at the moment. He also has that grunt which will be handy in a few tougher games later......

 

[monoccular 15,988]

24 minutes ago, willmoy said:

I think our style of play now is more conducive to Bugg being in the team, as a forward, as not at the moment. He also has that grunt which will be handy in a few tougher games later......

 

????

[old dee 22,802]

4 hours ago, Watson11 said:

I rate Bugg.  I think we have a strong list and he can't break back in because he is behind others but a few more injuries and we'll need him.  But Buggs disposal efficiency overall (except this year) is pretty good but his goalkicking is average.  Look at his career stats and he is consistently above 70% in DE (https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pc-melbourne-demons--tomas-bugg?advv=Y)

Players can fix their goalkicking yips no matter their age.  I don't have time to give you 10 but a few obvious players who have improved with age.

Dane Swan butchered the ball early in his career.  Pre 2010 (up to age 25) had 4 out of 6 seasons with <50% goal kicking conversion. Post 2010 only dropped below 50% once.

Lindsay Thomas had a bad case of the goal-kicking yips early in his career.  In 2011 when he was 23 he kicked 21.36.  He kicked 51.23 in 2013 when he was 25.  From 24 years of age on he fixed his issues and had really good conversion rates.

Buddy Franklin.  From age 20-25 his goal kicking conversion rate was only 60% or more once.  Since age 26 it has only been below 60% once. 

 

 

Hmm so you think Bugg is close to a group consisting of Swan, Thomas and Franklin. I don't think so. He is imo one of those players who is a good VFL talent who struggles at senior level. Just not good enough for senior level,  poor kick for goal and dubious temperament. He needs a miracle in August to be around in 2018, that miracle might just be Balic bailing. 

[Watson11 1,880]

4 minutes ago, old dee said:

Hmm so you think Bugg is close to a group consisting of Swan, Thomas and Franklin. I don't think so. He is imo one of those players who is a good VFL talent who struggles at senior level. Just not good enough for senior level,  poor kick for goal and dubious temperament. He needs a miracle in August to be around in 2018, that miracle might just be Balic bailing. 

Not sure where I stated Bugg is as good a player as Swan and Franklin.  Statistically that group all improved their kicking after the age of 25 which was the point being made.  It would be a bonus if Bugg could improve his goalkicking. 

The players ranked 16 to 30 on a list are important and I'd take any player in that group who averages 16 disposals at 73% efficiency with 3.4 tackles. 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,390]

If he couldn't get named this week with Melksham out he's unlikely to get another senior game.

[Willmoy1947 3,758]

5 hours ago, monoccular said:

????

How did that get through? No (not) eh?....better

[Damo 2,969]

Pretty sure Robbo fixed his goal kicking.

[old dee 22,802]

37 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If he couldn't get named this week with Melksham out he's unlikely to get another senior game.

The bloke  that got in before him has not played a senior game in 18 months, plays a few games at Casey and is into the side in the spot that should be a shoe in for Bugg. Hard to see him getting another game.

[Rogue 585]

6 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Players can fix their goalkicking yips no matter their age.  I don't have time to give you 10 but a few obvious players who have improved with age.

Dane Swan butchered the ball early in his career.  Pre 2010 (up to age 25) had 4 out of 6 seasons with <50% goal kicking conversion. Post 2010 only dropped below 50% once.

Lindsay Thomas had a bad case of the goal-kicking yips early in his career.  In 2011 when he was 23 he kicked 21.36.  He kicked 51.23 in 2013 when he was 25.  From 24 years of age on he fixed his issues and had really good conversion rates.

Buddy Franklin.  From age 20-25 his goal kicking conversion rate was only 60% or more once.  Since age 26 it has only been below 60% once.

Sure they can - I agree. (In fact, I can't understand how more guys don't improve their skills as they spend more years in the AFL system!). What I'm saying is that not many do make significant improvements.

I didn't look at the stats, but Swan is one who I think significantly improved his kicking after being in the system a bit and Thomas sounds plausible too.

However, I reckon you're dead wrong re: Franklin.  Strangely, you excluded Buddy's first two seasons, when he played 20 games (21 goals) and 14 games (31 goals)! Why was that? The sample definitely isn't too small. Given they were two of his better seasons, Choice would call you shonky, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt

I understand we're on a tangent, but here's a graph of Franklin's season percentages*. As you can see, Franklin's most accurate year was under 25. Two of Franklin's best four seasons were under 25. So were three of his top six and four of his top eight years. Six of his top 10 most accurate years were under 25!

Under 25 he went at 60.95%, and over 25 he's at 58.38% (58.67% incl. 2018), albeit with less variance season to season. Career total to date is 59.81%, so I'd say it's basically a wash - but U25 is a little ahead.

Regardless, Franklin's accuracy definitely hasn't significantly improved post-25!

*This year doesn't feature; it currently ranks 7th out of 14 seasons.

Edited August 2, 2018 by Rogue

[Deemented Are Go! 3,581]

11 hours ago, daisycutter said:

buggy would be a better player if he just changed his haircut

 

[Garbo 1,321]

I don't understand the negativity towards Bugg and why people want to write him off, not everyone will be a star but he can play a role just like JKH the last few weeks. He's not in our best 22 on pure talent but each list can have up to 47 players  with 38 being on the primary list which means over half the team isn't in the 22 at any one time. Given injuries and retirements even at his current skill level I think he will still continue to get some games in the senior team. There are plenty of others on our list who can't even do that. 

Edited August 2, 2018 by Garbo

[Rogue 585]

4 minutes ago, Garbo said:

I don't understand the negativity towards Bugg and why people want to write him off, not everyone will be a star but he can play a role just like JKH the last few weeks. He's not in our best 22 on pure talent but each list can have up to 47 players  with 38 being on the primary list which means over half the team isn't in the 22 at any one time. Given injuries and retirements even at his current skill level I think he will still continue to get some games in the senior team. There are plenty of others on our list who can't even do that. 

I reckon that if a guy is not in the best 22, is behind about four other guys for any particular spot on the ground, and is 25 years old, he must be pretty close to getting slapped with the 'list clogger' tag.

[Rogue 585]

9 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Do your own research. 

[Gator 16,888]

Bugger me.

Bugg will never play another game for the MFC.

If he does I'll change my christian name by deed poll to Hack.

[Engorged Onion 9,215]

4 hours ago, ProDee said:

Bugger me.

Bugg will never play another game for the MFC.

If he does I'll change my christian name by deed poll to Hack.

Loving the conviction @ProDee - curious as to the reasons why?

[Watson11 1,880]

10 hours ago, Rogue said:

Sure they can - I agree. (In fact, I can't understand how more guys don't improve their skills as they spend more years in the AFL system!). What I'm saying is that not many do make significant improvements.

I didn't look at the stats, but Swan is one who I think significantly improved his kicking after being in the system a bit and Thomas sounds plausible too.

However, I reckon you're dead wrong re: Franklin.  Strangely, you excluded Buddy's first two seasons, when he played 20 games (21 goals) and 14 games (31 goals)! Why was that? The sample definitely isn't too small. Given they were two of his better seasons, Choice would call you shonky, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt

I understand we're on a tangent, but here's a graph of Franklin's season percentages*. As you can see, Franklin's most accurate year was under 25. Two of Franklin's best four seasons were under 25. So were three of his top six and four of his top eight years. Six of his top 10 most accurate years were under 25!

Under 25 he went at 60.95%, and over 25 he's at 58.38% (58.67% incl. 2018), albeit with less variance season to season. Career total to date is 59.81%, so I'd say it's basically a wash - but U25 is a little ahead.

Regardless, Franklin's accuracy definitely hasn't significantly improved post-25!

*This year doesn't feature; it currently ranks 7th out of 14 seasons.

First 2 years were below the threshold for shots at goal that I consider significant (40 shots on goal or less :-)) The stats you quote are not correct.  He turned 25 in 2012.  2012 and before he kicked 520.384 at 57.5%.  2013 and after 384.60 at 59.6%.  He was not at 60.95% under 25.  Hint : If a player kicks 0.1 in year 1 (0%) and 150.0 in year 2 (100%), their conversion rate over both years is 99.3%, not 50%.  That maths would work well on a Collingwood forum ?

 

[Coq au vin 754]

I disagree with all the Bugg-haters on here. His kicking for goal is not that bad. He gets the ball. He’s tough.

I’d give him a run for a few weeks in the seniors next year and see if he can string together some good performances.

I suspect he’s likely to be delisted at year’s end because of Goodwin’s dislike.

[Rogue 585]

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

The stats you quote are not correct.  He turned 25 in 2012.  2012 and before he kicked 520.384 at 57.5%.  2013 and after 384.60 at 59.6%.  He was not at 60.95% under 25.

Franklin turned 25 in January 2012.

The season started well after he turned 25; when it finished, he was closer to 26.

It's hard for me to agree that he was under 25 when playing footy from March-September 2012.

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

First 2 years were below the threshold for shots at goal that I consider significant (40 shots on goal or less :-)) ?

If that's the case, then you can discount almost half the seasons Dane Swan played, which I reckon would mean that example isn't significant

2 hours ago, Watson11 said:

Hint : If a player kicks 0.1 in year 1 (0%) and 150.0 in year 2 (100%), their conversion rate over both years is 99.3%, not 50%.  That maths would work well on a Collingwood forum 

Weighting the seasons by number of shots on goal doesn't shine much light on the analysis. If I'm trying to work out whether I was better off the tee before and after various swing and grip changes, I'm not interested in weighting one period over another just because I was hitting more balls (unless I'm interested in accounting for the impact of frequency of playing etc). Instead, I just want to know whether in period x, y and z I was better than period a, b and c, and so on.

Anyway, if you're discounting two of Buddy's most accurate seasons because kicking 21 and 31 goals is not enough, and lumping a poor season into the 'under 25' group even though he turned 25 months before the season started, I'm not sure either of will sway the other on the question of Franklin.

Even if I discount a couple of Buddy's best seasons, pretend he was under 25 when he had one of his worst seasons, agree that the difference in the groups is significant rather than just minor, and concede you've named three examples, I reckon my point still stands. Not many guys in the AFL significantly improve their kicking after they hit 25 - if they did, I'm sure we'd all have been able to reel off a bunch of names. If you still disagree with this, then I don't think there's much more I can do to change your mind (or vice versa), so I'll probably leave it at that.

1 hour ago, President Dee Trump said:

I disagree with all the Bugg-haters on here. His kicking for goal is not that bad. He gets the ball. He’s tough. [...]

I suspect he’s likely to be delisted at year’s end because of Goodwin’s dislike.

I can't speak for everyone but I certainly don't hate him - I just don't rate him. He's four deep in the queue for a small-mid forward role, and about the same for a midfield role. I agree that he seems on the nose at the Dees and maybe he could get a run in another team, but can't imagine him being more than a bit-part player at any Club.

Edited August 3, 2018 by Rogue

[DV8 2,271]

On 8/2/2018 at 10:28 AM, Rogue said:

Bugg's probably been kicking a footy for 15+ years, so I'm not sure the analogy quite works.

I do think professional players should be able to improve things like goal kicking far more easily than they do.

However, the truth of the matter is that not many 25 year AFL footballers dramatically improve their basic skills.

The majority is in the mind, and learning to trust yourself more.

Accepting that you might make mistakes, or fail, is liberating; and helps the self belief taking the monkey away. Via removing most of the negatives in ones mind.

... the acceptance takes the power/weight away from the negatives.

.

[Rogue 585]

22 minutes ago, DV8 said:

The majority is in the mind, and learning to trust yourself more.

Accepting that you might make mistakes, or fail, is liberating; and helps the self belief taking the monkey away. Via removing most of the negatives in ones mind.

... the acceptance takes the power/weight away from the negatives..

Yeah, this is probably underrated in footy (and all sports, professional and at lower levels). Many players talk about how they only started playing good footy once they weren't worried about getting dropped every week - talk about a vicious cycle. That said, there are plenty of AFL players with flawed techniques that even I, a far-off amateur observer, can pick up on.

[Little Goffy 12,489]

Over time, I've just gone completely off Bugg. Used to enjoy his peskiness and ability to pop up unexpectedly, but he has been passed by others in every role he might play.

Now if I think of Bugg I think of a basically adequate player who will make some stupid mistake that costs us a final one day.

[DV8 2,271]

1 hour ago, Rogue said:

Yeah, this is probably underrated in footy (and all sports, professional and at lower levels). Many players talk about how they only started playing good footy once they weren't worried about getting dropped every week - talk about a vicious cycle. That said, there are plenty of AFL players with flawed techniques that even I, a far-off amateur observer, can pick up on.

Often you can see the lack of fluency in the players movement, at the ball, at the attempted mark, during the run in to kick, etc.

Self doubt increase the rigidity, and causes skill errors.   Ending in mental/confidence errors and poor performance.

 

The negatives cause the player try too hard.... and in doing so, are not relaxed enough to allow the intuitive brain to guide the kick, and the weight of kick.

 

Intuition is blocked..... by the player trying so hard to over-control the outcome.

 

.

[old dee 22,802]

46 minutes ago, DV8 said:

Often you can see the lack of fluency in the players movement, at the ball, at the attempted mark, during the run in to kick, etc.

Self doubt increase the rigidity, and causes skill errors.   Ending in mental/confidence errors and poor performance.

 

The negatives cause the player try too hard.... and in doing so, are not relaxed enough to allow the intuitive brain to guide the kick, and the weight of kick.

 

Intuition is blocked..... by the player trying so hard to over-control the outcome.

 

.

Wow sounds horrible I am glad I am not out there on Sunday!

[Philthy 284]

Buggy is finished. Sadly not the same player since the Callum Mills incident.