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Dr.D

The 2018 AFL National Draft

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At this stage our first pick is at pick 31 in a draft that is stacked with talent and suggested to be the best since 2001. Lady luck wasn't on our side with Lever doing his acl so trading our first rounder away this year for him has back fired. But I think Jason Taylor and Josh Mashoney will try and trade their way into the first round.

I think we could package our pick 31 with our first rounder for next year to get a pick around pick 12. 

Alternatively, we get on the front foot and trade out players.

Trading hogan out to freo or west coast would be something I would entertain. As i think he will go back anyway, so may as well cash in now. Freo have pick 6. So hogan to freo for pick 6 and their next season's first rounder sounds fair to me.

I wouldn't like to trade Hunt, but goodwin doesn't rate him and he isn't getting a game. Hunt may even request a trade. He would net a 2nd round pick. 

These are the only ways I can imagine getting back into this years draft and mark my words, we will definitely attempt to.

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Trade out CP 5 before he becomes CS and worthless

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7 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

Trading hogan out to freo or west coast would be something I would entertain. As i think he will go back anyway, so may as well cash in now. Freo have pick 6. So hogan to freo for pick 6 and their next season's first rounder sounds fair to me.

You really haven't thought this out to well have you.

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3 minutes ago, jackaub said:

Trade out CP 5 before he becomes CS and worthless

Before joining demonland I often read a lot of threads on this site as a guest over the last 4 or so years and I have yet to read A positive post from you towards the club or players, you just constantly bag them at every opportunity.

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What is everyone's obsession with the draft?

We have been there for years and we have got a heap of top end talent that is still young and developing. I'm not saying we completely ignore the draft, but the fact is we are now entering our premiership window, time to load up on ready made players to fill the holes we need to win it all.

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27 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

At this stage our first pick is at pick 31 in a draft that is stacked with talent and suggested to be the best since 2001. Lady luck wasn't on our side with Lever doing his acl so trading our first rounder away this year for him has back fired. But I think Jason Taylor and Josh Mashoney will try and trade their way into the first round.

I think we could package our pick 31 with our first rounder for next year to get a pick around pick 12. 

 

Or we could keep pick 31 and let Jason Taylor weave his magic. Look what pick 31 got us last draft.

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Nah.  Why trade up?  We are out of ‘rebuilding’ and looking for the next great hope phase.  We have Bradke arriving as a category B rookie.  We have a chance of landing a free agent now we are not a basket case.  Our ‘window’ is emerging now.  I would take highly selected, targeted players through  trade (Jason has pulled some outrageously good Smokeys from the barrel...) or free agency, then us the picks we have to secure best available talent. 

We will be on the verge of a number of retirements, but have a strong and fairly deep list already developing.  

On this basis, I would think we would take the draft as it comes.  And as for trading out Petracca or Hogan?  Thank you for your opinion.  These guys are absolute GUNS (might have misfired the last couple of weeks) and NO WAY we do anything other than keep them.

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Hunt must stay and the club needs to go over and beyond to develop him. Reason for this and will impact upcoming trade/draft is there are rule changes coming. Ones that they hope to open the game up more. I'm a bit concerned that we may take a step back with proposed rule changes, we have plenty of meat & potatoes, but not many run and carry speedsters. Salem & Petracca were recruited and noted as having speed but I'm yet to see it.

On the other hand, we are in prime position with our key forwards, keeping Hogan is a must, there may be more one on ones and they hope forwards will start kicking 100 in a season again. Guys like Petracca, Harmes as one on one forwards may be benefited by playing forward, but not midfield. I would be surprised if we aren't looking at another KPD, which would free up Lever and Hibberd and co to flanks, Lever is a 3rd man up intercept player, not a KPD. Maybe Goody is ahead of his time with the bomb it in game plan.....?!

What we do need is skilled players who can kick, it has been an issue for so long and we still only have 1-2 elite kicks in our team. Having 5-6 elite kicks in our side wins us more games and takes the hard bash and crash out of many contests. It would also have us beating Port by 30+ last week. Hawks were clever years ago, they recruited elite kicks and developed them, making execution of their game plan easier.

Apparently the TAC cup is trialling similar rule changes where they have to have 3 in each 50 at every stoppage? I haven't seen it but just heard it talked about and apparently looks good. While I was annoyed Hawks got to trial the proposed rule changes it gives me comfort that they have been trialling similar at U18's so our recruiters would be all over it. Has anyone watched TAC and could speak of these rules and how they're going?

I personally think give the draft a miss unless there's a too good to be true player, trade all of our NQRs or guys that haven't bought in for some ready made skilled speedsters, for eg Polec, Burgoyne, Saad, Impey types.

Anyway, just my thoughts but I assume the new rule changes will see more power forwards recruited along with run and carry players, whereas in the past maybe more inside players. 

Always a fascinating time of the year.

 

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38 minutes ago, Dr.D said:

At this stage our first pick is at pick 31 in a draft that is stacked with talent and suggested to be the best since 2001. Lady luck wasn't on our side with Lever doing his acl so trading our first rounder away this year for him has back fired. But I think Jason Taylor and Josh Mashoney will try and trade their way into the first round.

I think we could package our pick 31 with our first rounder for next year to get a pick around pick 12. 

Alternatively, we get on the front foot and trade out players.

Trading hogan out to freo or west coast would be something I would entertain. As i think he will go back anyway, so may as well cash in now. Freo have pick 6. So hogan to freo for pick 6 and their next season's first rounder sounds fair to me.

I wouldn't like to trade Hunt, but goodwin doesn't rate him and he isn't getting a game. Hunt may even request a trade. He would net a 2nd round pick. 

These are the only ways I can imagine getting back into this years draft and mark my words, we will definitely attempt to.

The Lever trade was stupid and leaves us in a sh*t position. But trading Hogan is just nuts. The whole point of getting Lever in - in the first place - was that we are well positioned for a tilt at a flag (in the next 5 years and beyond). Trading Hogan would be a big set back.

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I remember when we would start looking to the draft after round 1.

It's good being a real club again.

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1 hour ago, Dr.D said:

Trading hogan out to freo or west coast would be something I would entertain. As i think he will go back anyway, so may as well cash in now. Freo have pick 6. So hogan to freo for pick 6 and their next season's first rounder sounds fair to me.

 

Whilst i see where you're coming from....

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Posted (edited)

Trading up is naturally the preferred scenario in any draft, if feasible. 

And drafts are ALWAYS important. 

Rather than suggest ludicrous sideways trades of young potential stars in Hogan and Petracca like the posts above have entertained, I'd rather look at who would be considered 'excess' of what we already have and who could net us value.

The most obvious of which to me would be Tyson, Frost, Bugg, Stretch, (romanticism aside) and Kent. 

List upgrades are always important and from a list needs point of view, we're in clear need of players who will bring a set of skills that we need. Adding youth is obviously always paramount for the sustained success of a club as well. 

Tyson (as an example) packaged with pick 31 could net us something of great value if a Carlton, Essendon or Gold Coast were to bite. 

Goodwin concerns me with his stubbornness. His unwaveringly commitment in playing certain players out of position completely stifles our ability to hit the scoreboard against strong opposition sides who apply pressure. Whether that's players inside mids like ANB or Tyson as half-forwards or on the wings. Hogan as a permanent key forward. Vince and Lewis in the same backline. Etc. 

I can see our potential, but to me our team balance is still a way off. We have this mantra of playing 'tough' Melbourne footy and have recruited players who can play that way. But clearly in doing so we've neglected a skill and composure component and have lost run with Hunt's injury and our abundance of inside type players who play in other areas of the ground doesn't help our cause. 

 

Edited by stevethemanjordan
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If we could somehow get Sam Walsh then i'd say lets look at moving a Tyson/Kent on, but if not just look to finding a diamond with what we got.

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42 minutes ago, KingDingAling said:

The Lever trade was stupid and leaves us in a sh*t position. But trading Hogan is just nuts. The whole point of getting Lever in - in the first place - was that we are well positioned for a tilt at a flag (in the next 5 years and beyond). Trading Hogan would be a big set back.

Totally agree with all of this. I would never, ever contemplate trading Hogan, but if someone wanted to make us a ridiculous offer for Petracca I'm starting to think it would be worth considering. Hunt has some value, but he offers something that we desperately need - I hope he stays.

We desperately need to add top 30 draft picks to the list this year, given our lack of high picks over the past two seasons. Otherwise we face having another imbalance on our list in a few years time.

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5 minutes ago, poita said:

Totally agree with all of this. I would never, ever contemplate trading Hogan, but if someone wanted to make us a ridiculous offer for Petracca I'm starting to think it would be worth considering. Hunt has some value, but he offers something that we desperately need - I hope he stays.

We desperately need to add top 30 draft picks to the list this year, given our lack of high picks over the past two seasons. Otherwise we face having another imbalance on our list in a few years time.

Another way of looking at things is we recruited a few very young guys also who look like they may turn out, Oliver, Weid and Spargo still all babies.

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28 minutes ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Trading up is naturally the preferred scenario in any draft, if feasible. 

And drafts are ALWAYS important. 

Rather than suggest ludicrous sideways trades of young potential stars in Hogan and Petracca like the posts above have entertained, I'd rather look at who would be considered 'excess' of what we already have and who could net us value.

The most obvious of which to me would be Tyson, Frost, Bugg, Stretch, (romanticism aside) and Kent. 

List upgrades are always important and from a list needs point of view, we're in clear need of players who will bring a set of skills that we need. Adding youth is obviously always paramount for the sustained success of a club as well. 

Tyson (as an example) packaged with pick 31 could net us something of great value if a Carlton, Essendon or Gold Coast were to bite. 

Goodwin concerns me with his stubbornness. His unwaveringly commitment in playing certain players out of position completely stifles our ability to hit the scoreboard against strong opposition sides who apply pressure. Whether that's players inside mids like ANB or Tyson as half-forwards or on the wings. Hogan as a permanent key forward. Vince and Lewis in the same backline. Etc. 

I can see our potential, but to me our team balance is still a way off. We have this mantra of playing 'tough' Melbourne footy and have recruited players who can play that way. But clearly in doing so we've neglected a skill and composure component and have lost run with Hunt's injury and our abundance of inside type players who play in other areas of the ground doesn't help our cause. 

 

I agree except I'd like 2 give Stretch some game time as he has potential & I'd do the same with Kent. As far as trading x - factor types like Petracca & Hogan no thanks.

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remember all the drafts that were meant to be the best since 2001?

Spoiler alert - none of them were close.

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12 minutes ago, DubDee said:

remember all the drafts that were meant to be the best since 2001?

Spoiler alert - none of them were close.

Cal Twomey said on Sunday he thought this draft had been overrated, I'd believe him before anyone else.

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1 hour ago, stevethemanjordan said:

Trading up is naturally the preferred scenario in any draft, if feasible. 

It's funny you mention this.  I know it's not a great analogy, but I was reading an article just prior to the NBA draft this year where they talked about teams trading up in the draft and how, 9 times out of 10, it doesn't actually work out for that team.  I know it's a different sport and such, but I think the principle still applies.  Unless it's a great deal (and yes, I do know that's what you meant with the 'if feasible' part) then I don't see a need for us to trade up.  We've got a great track record of nailing later picks, and a deeper draft gives us more chance to do so this season.

I will also point out that the OP talks absolute trash in the first post as well.

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The draft is not the way to go at this stage in the clubs development, we still have players on our list that haven't even played a game so maybe first give these kids a ago.

Oh and Jess will be a one club player he is not going any where.

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Posted (edited)

 

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

remember all the drafts that were meant to be the best since 2001?

Spoiler alert - none of them were close.

True, but surely that has more to do with the outrageously great year that year was, as opposed to how weak subsequent years were. We may never see a better draft than 2001.

1 hour ago, SFebey said:

Cal Twomey said on Sunday he thought this draft had been overrated, I'd believe him before anyone else.

I have a feeling the high rating may have been because of the KP players available. We all know how the Roughie/Buddy draft worked out for Hawks when they had a go at the only good KP forwards in that period.

40 minutes ago, Wiseblood said:

I know it's not a great analogy, but I was reading an article just prior to the NBA draft this year where they talked about teams trading up in the draft and how, 9 times out of 10, it doesn't actually work out for that team.

I'm right into this. As usual in drafting the USA leagues learn all the lessons and we should benefit. For about 5 years (maybe longer in certain circles) the draft has taken on less importance as people look at the NBA and particularly the NFL systems. The draft age is the culprit. NBA get their guys slightly younger than the NFL. NFL you have to have gone through College and most players are taken at 21 when they're more-or-less known entities. As a result of the "sure things" the price of a first rounder has gotten massive. In the most famous case, the Redskins traded their first rounder and the next TWO first rounders (and a second) to move up just 4 selections. And the player they took was delisted within a few seasons.

As a consequence of these examples set by leagues with even more pressure on the list managers than the AFL, draft capital has dropped in value. That's why I've been all for us going for guys like Melks and Hibberd with second rounders. They might not have been superstars at the time, but they were known entities that you wouldn't need to put 3-5 years into to find out what they had, like we have with guys like Weideman. Or ten years like Watts. Add to that we have Taylor who turns second and third rounders into key players, and you have yourself a great situation to trade away picks aggressively.

Edited by Dappa Dan
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24 minutes ago, Dappa Dan said:

 

True, but surely that has more to do with the outrageously great year that year was, as opposed to how weak subsequent years were. We may never see a better draft than 2001.

I have a feeling the high rating may have been because of the KP players available. We all know how the Roughie/Buddy draft worked out for Hawks when they had a go at the only good KP forwards in that period.

I'm right into this. As usual in drafting the USA leagues learn all the lessons and we should benefit. For about 5 years (maybe longer in certain circles) the draft has taken on less importance as people look at the NBA and particularly the NFL systems. The draft age is the culprit. NBA get their guys slightly younger than the NFL. NFL you have to have gone through College and most players are taken at 21 when they're more-or-less known entities. As a result of the "sure things" the price of a first rounder has gotten massive. In the most famous case, the Redskins traded their first rounder and the next TWO first rounders (and a second) to move up just 4 selections. And the player they took was delisted within a few seasons.

As a consequence of these examples set by leagues with even more pressure on the list managers than the AFL, draft capital has dropped in value. That's why I've been all for us going for guys like Melks and Hibberd with second rounders. They might not have been superstars at the time, but they were known entities that you wouldn't need to put 3-5 years into to find out what they had, like we have with guys like Weideman. Or ten years like Watts. Add to that we have Taylor who turns second and third rounders into key players, and you have yourself a great situation to trade away picks aggressively.

Well said, mate.  The example you used in the first paragraph is a prime example of how badly it can hurt you to trade up in the draft.  It's why I was happy with what we did with Lever - he was a known quantity who already had 50 games in the system, so we knew exactly who we were getting and what they could do.  I can recall the Bulls trading away two first rounders to move up in the draft a few years back which backfired on them.  And that's just one more example.

As you say, now that we have the right coaches and a great recruitment team in place, we can back them to make the right selections and we can trade away picks or nab free agents with confidence.  Moving up in the draft, or trying to trade back into the first round, doesn't excite me at all.

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1 hour ago, deebug said:

The draft is not the way to go at this stage in the clubs development, we still have players on our list that haven't even played a game so maybe first give these kids a ago.

Oh and Jess will be a one club player he is not going any where.

Hope u r right

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I think people have missed the point with Hogan. I'm not saying trade him because he isn't good. I personally just feel that he will want a return to W.A. So I'm not sure why people are skimming over this quite possible fact. I'd rather get full value from him than to lose him to free agency. 

As for the guy that said maybe trading guys like Stretch/Kent etc. will get us the likes of Sam Walsh, a possible top 2 pick. LOL. Try pick 45 son.

Also, packaging Dom Tyson with pick 31 would probably get us pick 20 or something around there. 2 averages doesn't equal good on the trade table.  Otherwise I'd give up stretch, kent, tyson and pick 31 for buddy. Some people just don't understand how the draft works. Some Watts lovers were spewing when we gave him up for pick 31. Dreaming. He isn't playing regular senior football as I predicted and Fristch is a 200 gamer :)

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