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Run home to Finals - 2018

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Please Freo, show some effing pride and beat the filth so that we can tee up GWS.

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8 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

A hypothetical.....

We beat Giants next week and the Hawks beat the Swans.

If we were to beat Geelong and the Pies beat WCE in Perth. We could potentially play all our finals at the G if we we’re good enough to progress through.

Why would we want to do that (aside from making it fairer on our opponents and getting to see the games live)?

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11 minutes ago, GCDee said:

This is how I think it'll end up. 

If we win and Collingwood choke against freo (highly unlikely considering how they performed on the weekend) then we sneak into 4th.

Screenshot_20180819-194134_Chrome.jpg

I’d love Hawthorn to lose to Sydney.  Then we’d need to beat Geelong, Sydney, WC to make GF if all other games go with favourites.  But first things first.  GWS.  Win that at the G and I’ll be optimistic we can cause some damage.

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If we win we will go to 5th and play geelong. Now to wipe their khybers would be great but if we lose then finish 7th we could play Sydney up there. F or some reasom the second maybe more preferable.

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Posted (edited)

Freo were complete garbage this week vs Geelong, I wonder whether the Perth papers giving them a lashing and perhaps Ross Lyon giving them a spray might just lift them to an upset vs Collingwood. If that were to happen (unlikely as it is) that would make our game vs the Giants playing off for 4th spot!

Edited by Pates
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It's still possible for us to host Geelong or Port, be away to Collingwood or Hawthorn at the G, or be on the road to Sydney or GWS.

However, we'll know exactly what the win/loss ramification for us are when the ball is bounced as the games that matter (Port v Essendon, Fremantle v Collingwood, Sydney v Hawthorn, Geelong v Gold Coast) will all have been played by then.

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Posted (edited)

We could still be Top Four if The Dockers somehow manage to beat Collingwood. If that happens (and naturally we win) then we will move to fourth (as we will have removed the two-point advantage of GWS). Of the teams a game clear of us, either the Swans or Hawks will find find themselves on the same number of points and a lesser percentage, given that they they play each other and the loser will remain on a lower percentage.

Top Four will mean that week one of the Finals will see us playing the Tigers at the “G” and a massive game. If we win we return to the “G” for Week Three: if we lose we also return to the “G” for Week Two (whilst the winners from the bottom half travel to either Perth or Sydney for Week Two or the Hawks at “G”),

It is all up to the Dockers!

Edited by CBDees
Forgot that Hawks may beat Sydney and we might get a home final for Week Two

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9 minutes ago, CBDees said:

We could still be Top Four if The Dockers somehow manage to beat Collingwood. If that happens (and naturally we win) then we will move to fourth (as we will have removed the two-point advantage of GWS). Of the teams a game clear of us, either the Swans or Hawks will find find themselves on the same number of points and a lesser percentage, given that they they play each other and the loser will remain on a lower percentage.

Top Four will mean that week one of the Finals will see us playing the Tigers at the “G” and a massive game. If we win we return to the “G” for Week Three: if we lose we travel to either Perth or Sydney for Week Two (or the Hawks at “G”),

It is all up to the Dockers!

Can’t see freo winning, and if it did happen and we lost to the tigers we wouldn’t have to travel to Perth or Sydney week 2 as the Home final would be ours for finishing 4th

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, CBDees said:

We could still be Top Four if The Dockers somehow manage to beat Collingwood. If that happens (and naturally we win) then we will move to fourth (as we will have removed the two-point advantage of GWS). Of the teams a game clear of us, either the Swans or Hawks will find find themselves on the same number of points and a lesser percentage, given that they they play each other and the loser will remain on a lower percentage.

Top Four will mean that week one of the Finals will see us playing the Tigers at the “G” and a massive game. If we win we return to the “G” for Week Three: if we lose we travel to either Perth or Sydney for Week Two (or the Hawks at “G”),

It is all up to the Dockers!

I'm confused. If you finish top 4 and you lose week one, you get a home final in week 2. How did you conclude we have to travel to Sydney or Perth?Top 2 guarentees at least two home final, top 4 at least 1. Positions 5-6 is a maximum of one, while 7-8 is no home finals.

Edited by praha
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1 hour ago, praha said:

How did you conclude we have to travel to Sydney or Perth?Top 2 guarentees at least two home finals

I think he means we travel in Week 3 as its possible one prelim will be in Perth or Sydney.

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There is a realistic possibility that finals draw, if we continue to progress,  would look like Geelong (MCG), Sydney (SCG), WCE (Optus).

In other years I would say that travel is the death draw but having won 5/6 on the road this year (and just losing to PA), and playing those different shaped grounds so well, I think we'd be in a good position to navigate this. 

Of course,  we could lose after the siren in week one.

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13 hours ago, Watson11 said:

I’d love Hawthorn to lose to Sydney.  Then we’d need to beat Geelong, Sydney, WC to make GF if all other games go with favourites.  But first things first.  GWS.  Win that at the G and I’ll be optimistic we can cause some damage.

Would be pretty happy to see Richmond and Collingwood go at it in that first week and have a bloodbath. 

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Assuming Collingwood beat Freo

and

Assuming Geelong pulverise Gold Coast (enough to make up the percentage gap to us)

Then

A win has us fifth and playing Geelong (we leapfrog GWS and overtake the loser of Haw v Syd on percentage)

A loss has us eighth and going up to Sydney for a re-match with GWS.

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14 minutes ago, bananas said:

Assuming Collingwood beat Freo

and

Assuming Geelong pulverise Gold Coast (enough to make up the percentage gap to us)

Then

A win has us fifth and playing Geelong (we leapfrog GWS and overtake the loser of Haw v Syd on percentage)

A loss has us eighth and going up to Sydney for a re-match with GWS.

How much approximately do Geelong have to win by to pass our % assuming we have a close loss?

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32 minutes ago, martin said:

How much approximately do Geelong have to win by to pass our % assuming we have a close loss?

Just having a quick play with the Ladder Predictor, I set it with us having a 10 point loss, and Geelong go past our percentage with a 50 point win, but fail to go past us with a 40 point win.

The extra thirty points they got out of Freo after they cracked the ton were the real killer. That win was so huge that the Cats passing us on percentage went from 'possible but unlikely' to 'more likely than not'. What are the chances Gold Coast get within fifty points of them?

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14 hours ago, dl4e said:

If we win we will go to 5th and play geelong. Now to wipe their khybers would be great but if we lose then finish 7th we could play Sydney up there. F or some reasom the second maybe more preferable.

I prefer wins but as a resident of Sydney nothing would give me more pleasure than beating them at the SCG and then walking home wearing my scarf. 

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18 minutes ago, bananas said:

Just having a quick play with the Ladder Predictor, I set it with us having a 10 point loss, and Geelong go past our percentage with a 50 point win, but fail to go past us with a 40 point win.

The extra thirty points they got out of Freo after they cracked the ton were the real killer. That win was so huge that the Cats passing us on percentage went from 'possible but unlikely' to 'more likely than not'. What are the chances Gold Coast get within fifty points of them?

For crying out loud I thought they needed another 100 point win!

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, bananas said:

Just having a quick play with the Ladder Predictor, I set it with us having a 10 point loss, and Geelong go past our percentage with a 50 point win, but fail to go past us with a 40 point win.

The extra thirty points they got out of Freo after they cracked the ton were the real killer. That win was so huge that the Cats passing us on percentage went from 'possible but unlikely' to 'more likely than not'. What are the chances Gold Coast get within fifty points of them?

Hopefully one of the Geelong players can come out during the week and call the Suns players soft... then hopefully there might be a chance.

Edited by Megatron

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I would settle for Gold Coast getting done by whatever and god doing a hamstring running away fro 22 angry Gold Coast players who almost caused the extinction of their Club...........for money

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33 minutes ago, bananas said:

Just having a quick play with the Ladder Predictor, I set it with us having a 10 point loss, and Geelong go past our percentage with a 50 point win, but fail to go past us with a 40 point win.

The extra thirty points they got out of Freo after they cracked the ton were the real killer. That win was so huge that the Cats passing us on percentage went from 'possible but unlikely' to 'more likely than not'. What are the chances Gold Coast get within fifty points of them?

Thanks for that although a bit deflating.Outlines the need for us to win this week. Playing the Giants at Spotless in a few weeks time with players back would be very difficult. Prefer any other fixture. Even Sydney away. SCG might suit us.

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2 hours ago, deanox said:

There is a realistic possibility that finals draw, if we continue to progress,  would look like Geelong (MCG), Sydney (SCG), WCE (Optus).

In other years I would say that travel is the death draw but having won 5/6 on the road this year (and just losing to PA), and playing those different shaped grounds so well, I think we'd be in a good position to navigate this. 

Of course,  we could lose after the siren in week one.

That would be an almost dream run.  We avoid the teams that had the best game plan to beat us:  Hawks, Rich, Pies.  We have improved a lot since those three losses but it would still be a dream to avoid them until the last Saturday in Sept.

 

As an aside, did anyone notice we effectively knocked Port out of the finals race?  They need to win and the Cats to lose.  Don't like the odds so its bye bye Port!

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I am going to remain an optimist and will relish the Dockers getting up to demolish the Pies next weekend, propelling us into Fourth position if we can overcome the Giants!

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I want to play Geelong in finals. I want to pulverise them. Actually no, I want to win by a point after the siren from a Gawn free kick in front of goal. I want Ablett to retire. I want Geelong players to suffer. I want Scott's head to explode in the box. I want someone to knock out Selwood and Dangerfield.

I want to sweet sweet revenge and justice. 

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