Run home to Finals - 2018

[Jaded No More 57,745]

Essendon will shut up shop by round 23, so Port won’t lose. I doubt they’ll beat the Pies tho. 

North also won’t lose to St Kilda in round 23 for the same reason. 

We have to win today and ensure that even if we lose the next two, we lose by small margins as our % will be hard to beat. I think we can beat WC if we get Hibbo and Melksham back and WC are still without Kennedy. Can’t see us beating GWS tho. 

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 3,925]

 

Edited August 11, 2018 by david_neitz_is_my_dad

[Stevienic23 1,024]

Would we rather finish 4th and play Richmond week 1, which would mean 2 finals at the MCG at worst case scenario or finish 3rd and travel west week 1 and back ourselves to roll West Coast. 

Note that I'm firmly in the camp of winning all 3 and we finish where we finish. Just curious to hear others' thoughts. 

[Lucifers Hero 36,988]

6 minutes ago, Stevienic23 said:

Would we rather finish 4th and play Richmond week 1, which would mean 2 finals at the MCG at worst case scenario or finish 3rd and travel west week 1 and back ourselves to roll West Coast. 

Note that I'm firmly in the camp of winning all 3 and we finish where we finish. Just curious to hear others' thoughts. 

Whichever has us by-passing the Hawks in subsequent games which of course we have no way of knowing in advance. 

They are our nemesis.  Anything to avoid them until the last Saturday of September.

Edited August 11, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[titan_uranus 22,240]

36 minutes ago, Stevienic23 said:

Note that I'm firmly in the camp of winning all 3 and we finish where we finish. Just curious to hear others' thoughts. 

I don't think there's anyone who isn't in the same camp as you.

The difference is that some are interested in what happens in the event we don't win all three, and how that (and other results) impacts on our finish.

[Rogue 585]

Way too many permutations to have a decent idea IMO - it's been all over the place the last few weeks, although - unfortunately - none of the games went our way last night.

Edited August 12, 2018 by Rogue

[SFebes 4,692]

I wanted WCE to lose. 

If we win all 3 remaining games and WCE lose the next 2, we will finish 2nd. Not out of the realms of possibility, however Bris need to defeat WCE in R23 which I think they can up there.

In a dramatic twist to the end of this season with key injuries to clubs, GWS, WCE, PORT, COLL.... I honestly believe there's only 3 major threats for the flag. Richmond obviously, Hawthorn creeping up and wait for it.......The Dees. We won't get better opportunities than right now.

I'm confident of beating WCE with their outs and GWS at home, but my concern is the ever testing Sydney, win today and its game on for 2nd spot. If WCE win v Bris then an away final v WCE may eventuate.

[GCDee 3,006]

3 wins top 4 as high as top 2.

2 wins and we are top 4 as long as one of those wins in GWS.

1 win and we finish anywhere from 6-8 

0 wins and we need to be really [censored] lucky to get in.

[John Demonic 4,794]

mistaken post.

Edited August 12, 2018 by johndemonic

[Dwight Schrute 16,747]

Doesn’t matter because we won’t be there 

[brendan 3,380]

Got us finishing 9th now can’t see us winning another game Sydney take 8th, another wasted year coming up 

[Dr.D 1,771]

you guys are laughable. the title of this thread should be "run home to 10th". since the port loss our season was done! most of you demonlanders learnt nothing from last season. and i forgot the username of the guy i had a bet with

[Docs Demons 1,657]

Even if we do get lucky today showed me we would just chock again in first final so why get us excited to make it. Might as well finish 9th and then get rid of at least 6-8 players that played today to REBUILD again.The skipper is first to go. Sorry I said skipper, I meant Jones as he is no skipper.

[SPC 2,782]

The run home to Bali

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 3,925]

I [censored] told you dont worry about finals. Seriously things never change. Pathetic club

[Little Goffy 12,545]

Well, now it is all very simple.

Win at least one game of the remainign two, we play finals, guaranteed.

Lose both, we miss finals, guaranteed.

If it is any comfort, I've been running the squiggle auto-tip over and over and so far none of the results have shown us dropping both games... on balance of probability, of course. The simulator doesn't account for Melbourne being Melbourne, though.

I had really hoped we wouldn't have to think about rushing players back in, but right now it is every possible player 'in', which specifically means Melksham and Hibberd who between them can transform our half-forward and half-back lines.

One win. Just one win.

[Dr.D 1,771]

6 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Well, now it is all very simple.

Win at least one game of the remainign two, we play finals, guaranteed.

Lose both, we miss finals, guaranteed.

If it is any comfort, I've been running the squiggle auto-tip over and over and so far none of the results have shown us dropping both games... on balance of probability, of course. The simulator doesn't account for Melbourne being Melbourne, though.

I had really hoped we wouldn't have to think about rushing players back in, but right now it is every possible player 'in', which specifically means Melksham and Hibberd who between them can transform our half-forward and half-back lines.

One win. Just one win.

lol. shush. we're not playing finals and dont deserve to

[Bobby McKenzie 2,169]

2 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

Well, now it is all very simple.

Win at least one game of the remainign two, we play finals, guaranteed.

Lose both, we miss finals, guaranteed.

If it is any comfort, I've been running the squiggle auto-tip over and over and so far none of the results have shown us dropping both games... on balance of probability, of course. The simulator doesn't account for Melbourne being Melbourne, though.

I had really hoped we wouldn't have to think about rushing players back in, but right now it is every possible player 'in', which specifically means Melksham and Hibberd who between them can transform our half-forward and half-back lines.

One win. Just one win.

 Even if we lose both we still have a glimmer of hope. Essendon lose to Richmond and beat Port.( Finish on 48 points but much inferior % to us.) {Port have just lost Dixon for season.) Port also lose to Collingwood. Finish on 48 points with lower % than us. Never thought I would ever be hoping for an Essendon win. Port v Essendon in last round could decide our fate. BUT why can't we win just ONE more game with Melsham and Hibberd hopefully both available?  I'm not writing you off yet Demons.

[brendan 3,380]

Problem is if we don’t beat west coast we are playing GWS For a spot in the last round, we just don’t have the mental toughness to get that job done in front of a home crowd, so if we can’t beat the Eagles our season is done 

[leucopogon 1,468]

Season over for mine, mental fragility is our distinguishing characteristic

[Dr.D 1,771]

not sure why people are reacting now. the season was done against port, and if not then, then definitely against the cats 

[SPC 2,782]

Just now, Dr.D said:

not sure why people are reacting now. the season was done against port, and if not then, then definitely against the cats 

Because when you are given a lifeline you should take it,. Good sides do!

[Jibroni 4,032]

Can't believe we have to wait until GWS put us out of miseries. The sooner we can talk about the draft and trade period the better.

[Jibroni 4,032]

19 minutes ago, leucopogon said:

Season over for mine, mental fragility is our distinguishing characteristic

Hard to disagree after today.

[titan_uranus 22,240]

If the following four things happen, then even if we lose both games we can make it:

1. North lose to Adelaide
2. Port lose to Collingwood
3. Essendon lose to Richmond
4. Port lose to Essendon

If those happen, then when we get to our game vs GWS, both Port and Essendon will both have 12 wins (and North beating St Kilda puts them on 12 as well). Barring two blowout losses to WC and GWS, our percentage will keep us in the 8 above Port, Essendon and North and we won't even need to beat GWS.

The four results above are not completely out of the question - I don't see Port beating Collingwood or Essendon beating Richmond, for example. I'm not so confident on North losing to Adelaide but it's entirely possible. But tbh I really don't see Port losing at home to Essendon in the final round, with finals to play for. Stranger things have happened, but I don't see it

In order to miss with a 13th win:

1. one of Geelong, North and Essendon (the 11-win teams) has to catch us on percentage (only Geelong can realistically do this); and
2. Port has to win both games

I don't see both of those happening - I just don't see Port winning both, us winning one and still Geelong catching us on percentage.

tl;dr - we just need to win a game.